Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 7, 2025, 05:00 UTC
(Analysis based on information up to 05:00 UTC)
I. Overall Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains high, with 135 combat clashes reported on April 6 (UGS). The most active axes continue to be Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and the Kursk/Sumy border. Significant activity also noted on the Kupyansk and Belgorod border axes.
Russian Strike Activity (Apr 6): Extensive strikes continue across Ukraine. UGS reported 1 missile strike (23 missiles claimed), 63 aviation strikes (104 KABs), 718 kamikaze drones, and over 4200 shelling attacks targeting Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h to Apr 7 AM):274 RU strikes (3 air, 140 UAV, 5 MLRS, 126 artillery) on 11 settlements.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 6 PM - Apr 7 AM): Multiple artillery and kamikaze drone attacks on Nikopol District (Nikopol city, Marhanets, Pokrovsk communities). No casualties reported from these overnight attacks (Vilkul, 04:35 UTC).
Territorial Control Changes & Advance Rates:
Ukrainian Advances: Confirmed near Borova (Kharkiv Obl., W of Svatove) (ISW, Apr 6). RU Claim: UA advance S. outskirts of Kamyanka (Kupyansk Axis) (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Russian Advances:
Confirmed/Claimed near Kupyansk (Zakhidne - RU Claim Apr 7), Toretsk (N. Toretsk city; btwn Krymske & Pivnichne), Pokrovsk (Udachne; N. of Andriivka; Lysivka - RU Claim fighting ongoing Apr 7; outskirts of Shevchenko), Kurakhove, and Kursk/Sumy border (Huyevo, Basivka) (ISW, Apr 6 / RU Sources Apr 7).
Additional confirmed/claimed RU advances on Lyman (W. of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka), Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar - Zapadnyi microdistrict), Novopavlivsk (Rozlyv; from Vesele), Orikhiv (Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka) axes (DeepState/RU sources/ISW/TASS).
RU Claim: Advance near Sudzha crossing (Kursk), towards Oleshnia (Kursk), reached church in Huyevo (Kursk) (Dva Mayora, Apr 7). TASS reports RU forces conducting clearing operations in Huyevo (Apr 7, 04:52 UTC). Fighting ongoing in Lysivka (Pokrovsk), RU claim control S/E parts (RVvoenkor, Apr 7).
Russian Advance Rate Assessment (ISW via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7 / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 7): Analysis indicates Russian territorial gains have decreased monthly since November 2024 (Nov '24: ~627-730 sq km -> Mar '25: ~143-203 sq km). This is attributed partly to successful localized Ukrainian counterattacks, especially on Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes.
Significant Attack Aftermath:
Kryvyi Rih (Apr 4 Strike - Update Apr 7): Death toll 20 KIA (9 children), 75 WIA. 33 remain hospitalized (4 children), with 18 in severe condition (2 children). Weapon confirmed: Iskander-M (cluster). Days of Mourning Apr 7-9.
Claimed Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia (Past 24h):
UAV Interceptions (RU MoD Claim):19 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed overnight (Apr 6-7): 13 over Sea of Azov, 4 over Krasnodar Krai, 1 over Bryansk Oblast, 1 over occupied Crimea (TASS/Dva Mayora, Apr 7). Bryansk Governor confirms 1 UAV down over Bryansk Oblast.
Krasnodar Krai (Kuban) Rail Damage: UAV reportedly fell on railway tracks, damaging the track bed and contact network (TASS, Apr 7, 04:47 UTC).
Claimed Russian Personnel Losses (Apr 6): UGS reports approx. +1350 RU personnel eliminated (Operativnyi ZSU / RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7). Total claimed losses since Feb 24, 2022, exceed 925,000.
II. Air & Missile Activity Updates (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 7)
Current Air Threats:
Northeastern/Frontline Oblasts: Threat of aviation weapon employment due to RU tactical aviation activity (UA AF, 04:19 UTC).
Tokarivka Druha (Kharkiv Oblast) (Apr 7 AM): KAB strike resulted in 1 civilian KIA (48yo M), 2 women WIA (acute stress reaction) (Kharkiv OVA / RBC-Ukraina, Apr 7).
Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) (Apr 6 PM): Airstrike injured 3 civilians (all hospitalized, moderate). Damage to 7 shops, admin building, etc. (Dnipro OVA, Apr 7).
Russian UAV Use:140 RU UAV attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast; Kamikaze drones used in Nikopol District (Dnipro Obl.) overnight.
RU Claimed UA UAV Interceptions (DNR): RU FSB claims EW systems thwarted >200 UA air attacks (likely UAVs) in DNR over the past week (TASS, Apr 7).
Overnight Combined Air Assault Analysis (Apr 5-6 Recap): 132 RU air targets tracked; 53 intercepted. Notable failure: 5/6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast were NOT intercepted (UA AF). Resulted in 1 KIA (Kyiv), multiple WIA across Ukraine.
III. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Updates (Select Axes)
Kursk/Sumy Border:
Intensity: High (29 clashes Apr 6 - UGS). Heavy RU air/artillery strikes.
RU Activity: Attacks claimed near Sudzha crossing, towards Oleshnia, and in Huyevo (Kursk); near Basovka (Sumy). RU forces conducting clearing operations in Huyevo (TASS, Apr 7).
RU Advances: Confirmed/Claimed in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy) (ISW/RU Sources).
Kupyansk Axis:
Intensity: High tempo reported (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Territorial Changes:RU Claim: UA advanced S. outskirts of Kamyanka. RU Claim: RU advanced in Zakhidne and on 5.7km front near Oskil bridgeheads (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
Lyman Axis:
Intensity: High (20 RU attacks Apr 6 - UGS).
UA Advance: Confirmed near Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) (ISW, Apr 6).
RU Advance: Claimed W. of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubovka (>3.5km wide, 2km deep) (RVvoenkor/DeepState cited). Assessment indicates deteriorating UA situation on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar):
RU Advance: Confirmed near Zapadnyi (Western) microdistrict of Chasiv Yar (DeepState, Apr 6).
RU Actions: Claimed FPV drone strikes by VDV units (98th Div) destroying UA vehicle and UAV C2 point in/near Chasiv Yar (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 7).
Toretsk Axis:
Intensity: High (17 RU assaults Apr 6 - UGS).
RU Advances: Confirmed on Enhelsa St (N. Toretsk) (ISW). Claimed btwn Krymske & Pivnichne; clearing UA groups within Toretsk city; consolidating front SW of Toretsk (Dva Mayora, Apr 7).
UA Counterattacks: Assessed as successful locally, slowing RU gains (ISW).
Pokrovsk Axis:
Intensity:Highest (42 RU attempts Apr 6 - UGS). Heavy fighting in Lysivka (RVvoenkor, Apr 7).
RU Advances: Confirmed/Claimed near Udachne, N. of Andriivka, in Lysivka (RU claim control S/E parts, fighting N.), reached outskirts of Shevchenko (ISW/DeepState/RU Sources).
UA Counterattacks: Assessed as successful locally, slowing RU gains (ISW).
UA Tactics: Reports of effective Ukrainian mining operations disrupting RU forces (e.g., OTU Kharkiv report on MON-200 vs infantry, mines vs vehicles).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:
RU Advances: Claimed near Bohatyr (1km advance), near Novodarivka (pushed UA from treeline), near Rozlyv, towards Shevchenko, consolidating near Kostiantynopil, advancing NW of Vesele (Voin DV / RU Sources).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):
4 RU attacks stopped Apr 5 near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka (UGS). RU advances claimed earlier near Mali Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, Mala Tokmachka. Heavy RU UAV/artillery strikes ongoing.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
No active RU offensive actions reported recently (UGS). RU artillery strikes claimed targeting UA positions on Right Bank (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 7).
IV. Naval Situation (as of 06:00 UTC Apr 7 - UA Navy)
Black Sea: No Russian warships present.
Azov Sea: No Russian warships present.
Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships present, including 3 Kalibr cruise missile carriers (total salvo potential up to 26 missiles).
Kerch Strait Traffic (Past 24h): 2 vessels entered Black Sea (0 towards Bosphorus); 4 vessels entered Azov Sea (3 from Bosphorus). AIS reportedly remains switched off by RU vessels, violating SOLAS.
