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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 16:02:48Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 15:32:43Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 16:00 UTC


I. Air & Missile Activity

  • Ballistic Missile Threat Status (Ended):
    • Threat previously declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other regions (Apr 6, ~14:48-15:03 UTC).
    • Air alert ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (15:29 UTC).
    • Air threats ended in all regions (UA AF, 15:29 UTC).
  • Ongoing Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threats (as of 16:00 UTC):
    • Donetsk Oblast: Persistent threat. Repeated launches reported by RU tactical aviation (UA AF, 13:57 UTC; 15:05 UTC).
    • Kharkiv Oblast (North): Active threat. Launches reported (UA AF, 15:48 UTC).
    • Sumy Oblast: Active threat. Launches reported (UA AF, 15:57 UTC).
    • General Frontline (NE): Threat remains due to RU tactical aviation activity (UA AF, 15:41 UTC).
  • Recent KAB Strikes (Apr 6):
    • Zolochiv (Kharkiv Oblast): Strike reported. 1 civilian injured (67 y.o. female, stress reaction/hypertensive crisis), hospitalized (Kharkiv OVA, 15:41 UTC).
    • Novopavlivsk Hromada (Synelnykove District, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Airstrike reported in afternoon. 3 civilians injured (preliminary). Damage assessment ongoing (Lysak/OVA, 15:30 UTC).
  • Russian UAV Activity:
    • Detected in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast; potential Air Defence engagement reported (UA AF, 15:16 UTC).
  • Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
    • Interceptions (UA AF Summary): 53 air targets intercepted (6/9 Kh-101/55SM, 6/8 Kalibr, 1/6 Iskander-M, 40/109 Shahed/Decoy). 53 decoys reportedly lost track. RU sources disseminated alleged UA map showing flight paths (Dnevnik Desantnika, 15:29 UTC).
    • Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF Spokesperson): Confirmed 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were NOT intercepted and impacted targets (Obolonskyi/Darnytskyi districts).
    • Impacts & Damage (Ukraine):
      • Kyiv City/Oblast: 1 Civilian Killed, 5 Injured. Significant non-residential infrastructure damage, fires.
      • Sumy Oblast: 8 Shaheds struck civil infrastructure, no casualties.
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: Debris injured 4 civilians.
      • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 1 missile downed, 1 civilian injured.
      • Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): KAB strike damaged residential building (9th floor), injured 2 civilians (Apr 6). Video confirms aftermath (Operativnyi ZSU, 15:00 UTC).
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 449 RU strikes (past 24h), 1 house damaged, no casualties (OVA).
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 6):
        • Nikopol District (Nikopol city, Pokrovsk hromada): Attacked by RU strike UAVs and artillery. Cafe, 4 private houses, 2 gas pipelines, power line damaged. No casualties. (Lysak/OVA, 15:30 UTC). Photos show damaged houses.
  • Russian Tactical Shift: Increased use of ballistic missiles noted since early 2024 (UA AF Assessment).
  • Ukrainian Air Defence Focus (Zelenskyy, Apr 6 - 15:25 UTC):
    • Instructions issued to intensify partner contacts regarding Air Defence (specifically Patriot systems) ahead of Apr 11 Ramstein meeting. Key objectives: additional Patriot systems, ensuring rapid partner decisions/actions regarding potential contingents.
    • Bilateral work with USA prioritized for AD assistance. Emphasized need for political will/decisions for systems currently available with partners.
    • Highlighted recent RU Black Sea missile launches, asserting partners know launch platforms/locations. Stated RU refusal of ceasefire linked to desire to maintain sea-based strike capability.
    • Emphasized need for continued pressure (defense capabilities, sanctions, diplomacy) on Russia.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6): 481 air targets destroyed; ~100 aviation sorties; 944 drone brigade combat sorties (>35 RU personnel hit est.).
  • Counter-Drone Actions:
    • UA forces actively targeting RU drone operators and associated equipment (e.g., antennas, Starlink terminals) (Biloshitsky, 15:03 UTC). RU FPV units actively targeting alleged UA heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") (RU Source, 15:37 UTC).
    • Video released showing UA 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade destroying a Shahed drone using an S-60 57mm AA gun (Butusov, 15:18 UTC). Demonstrates adaptation of older systems.
    • Previous claims: UA 81st Airmobile Bde downing Lancet (Apr 6); "Horizon Group" downing 8 RU recon UAVs with FPVs (Apr 6); UA 63rd Brigade downing 7 RU drones with small arms (Apr 6).
  • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Death toll increased to 20 KIA (man, 57, died in hospital Apr 6). Previously 19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (incl. 11 children). Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition. Day of Mourning observed (Apr 6). Video shows debris clearing operations at impacted restaurant/playground site (Colonelcassad, 15:29 UTC; ASTRA photo 15:42 UTC).
  • Kharkiv City Drone Attack (Apr 3-4): 5 KIA, 32 WIA. Extensive damage to residential buildings/infrastructure.
  • Counter-Radar Strike (RU Claim, Apr 6): RU "Akhmat" unit claims destruction of US-made AN/TPQ-48 counter-battery radar near Udy (Kharkiv direction) using an FPV drone (Kadyrov_95, 14:33 UTC). Video released.

II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation

  • Overall Intensity: Remains HIGH. 75 combat engagements recorded since start of Apr 6 (UGS 13:00 UTC). Intense fighting persists on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes.
  • Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
    • Basivka Situation (Sumy Oblast): RU MoD claimed capture (Apr 6). UA Border Guard Spokesperson (Demchenko, 14:43 UTC) denies capture, confirms RU groups present but village NOT under RU control. States RU attempts with small groups are being destroyed. Combat ongoing.
    • Sudzha Border Crossing (Kursk Oblast): UA sources claim Ukrainian flag raised over RU border checkpoint building (Tsaplienko, 15:34 UTC, video). Requires verification.
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast): RU sources claim advance and flag raised. RU MoD/WarGonzo claim UA units being pushed out (Apr 6). RU video claims artillery strike by 30 MSP / 72 MSD / 44 AK on alleged group of 4 UA soldiers in Huyevo (WarGonzo, 15:11 UTC).
    • Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast): RU MoD/WarGonzo claim attacks towards Oleshnia (Apr 6).
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast; 6 engagements ongoing. RU conducted 93 arty/13 MLRS shellings, 5 air strikes (11 KABs).
    • RU Activity Claims: FPV drone use disrupting UA rotations near Sumy border. RU "Sever" group claims strikes on multiple UA brigades, inflicting >170 UA casualties (inflated). RU sources claim destruction of UA Border Guard (94 POGO, from Chop) positions/personnel in Sudzha area; allege heavy losses and unit dispersal into 225 OShP / 47 OMBr. Display alleged captured documents (Dva Mayora, 15:21 UTC). RU source provides video/report on "Sarmat-3" light armored vehicle use near Sudzha by 11th VDV Bde (Voenkor Kotenok, 15:39 UTC).
    • UA Activity: Confirmed use of German Helsing HF-1 AI-enabled kamikaze drones (tested in Sumy Oblast, 1000 delivered). Colombian volunteers confirmed operating with UA 47th Mechanized Brigade in Kursk Oblast. UA 82nd Air Assault Brigade confirmed operating in Kursk Oblast (Zelenskyy visit context, Apr 4).
  • Belgorod Border:
    • Popovka Area: Reports indicate RU counter-attack (155th Naval Infantry) after UA advance; RU claims UA retreated 600m. UA drone activity targeting RU logistics reported. Drone footage shows aftermath of fighting/casualties in border forest strip near Krasnoyaruzhsky district (RU propaganda source - Colonelcassad, 14:46 UTC). Heavy fighting previously reported near Dmitrovka/Popovka.
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • Recent: No RU ground offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6, 13:00 UTC). RU Aviation struck multiple settlements. KAB strike on Zolochiv (Apr 6, afternoon), 1 civilian injured. Previous day (Apr 5): 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka.
    • RU Claims: Claimed destruction of UA counter-battery radar near Udy (Apr 6). Published combat footage allegedly from Vovchansk direction (Apr 6).
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 2 RU attacks ongoing near Pishchane. Previous day (Apr 5): 6 attacks repelled.
    • Territorial Changes: ISW previously reported UA advance near Kupyansk (Apr 6).
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 11 RU attacks conducted near Novoyehorivka, Nove, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, towards Torske; 5 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 26 attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims (Advances): Claimed tactical advances: +300m from Ivanivka towards Zelena Dolyna; +200m towards Nove; +350m South from Yampolivka towards Torske (Apr 6). Claimed expanding control N of Novoliubivka (Apr 4). DeepState previously reported RU advance near Novoliubivka (Apr 5).
  • Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6, 13:00 UTC). Previous day: 5 attacks repelled.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): No active RU offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6, 13:00 UTC). Previous day: 3 attacks repelled. RU sources report increased UA FPV drone use in Soledar-Bakhmut direction (Sternenko, 15:10 UTC). Video shows work of UA 93rd Mech Bde (Operativnyi ZSU, 15:57 UTC).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA repelled 7 RU assaults near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka; 3 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 20 attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claim capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka)/Panteleimonivka (Apr 6). DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city (Apr 5). ISW reported RU advance near Toretsk (Apr 6).
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 29 RU attempts near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Udachne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka. 21 attacks repelled, engagements ongoing. Previous day: 75 attacks stopped.
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claim continued advance into defense depth. Claim tactical success in Udachne; advancing in Lysovka, towards Novoolexandrivka, W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Claim offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk border near Novoolexandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka (Apr 5). ISW reported RU advance near Pokrovsk (Apr 6). RU video compilation (Apr 4) shows strikes on UA tanks, armor, arty, positions (RVvoenkor, 15:13 UTC).
    • UA Activity: Video shows UA 30th Mech Bde airstrike on RU concentration point (Operativnyi ZSU, 15:23 UTC).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate to High intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA holding back enemy near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; 3 attacks ongoing, 1 assault stopped. Previous day: 8 assaults repelled.
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claimed 1.5 km advance W along Bohdanivka - Andriivka line (SW of Kurakhove, Apr 6). Claim fierce fighting near Rozlyv, cleared tree lines, captured height. Claim advances E/SE of Bohatyr (up to 1km deep x 1.2km wide). Claim capture of heights near Bohatyr. Claim advance towards Shevchenko (3rd settlement with this name in area, near alleged lithium deposits) (Colonelcassad, 15:12 UTC, map). RU claim Archer SPG destroyed (Apr 6).
  • Huliaipole Axis: 2 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne (UGS Apr 6, 13:00 UTC). Previous day: 1 attack repelled.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA repelled 3 Russian attacks towards Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. RU aviation (KABs) struck Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka. Previous day: 4 attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claim capture of Lobkove (Apr 3). Claim capture of positions/equipment near Shcherbaky (Apr 4). DeepState previously reported RU advance in Mali Shcherbaky. RU video shows morale messages from BARS-11 unit operating on this front (WarGonzo, 15:26 UTC).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): No active RU offensive actions. Previous day: 2 attacks repelled. Ukrainian positions maintained.
    • Tactical Situation (RU Perspective): RU sources describe "stable tension," main UA threat assessed as FPV/mining drones from Kherson city. Note increased UA attempts to cross Dnipro with small boats (paired with drone boats), but claim UA suffers boat shortages. Claim RU control over left bank/islands/delta.

III. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory

  • Drone Attacks (Belgorod Oblast - Governor Report, 15:16 UTC):
    • 8 settlements attacked by alleged UA drones (Rzhevka, Shebekino, Belyanka, Voznesenovka, Nizhneye Beryozovo-Vtoroye, Beryozovka, Vyazovskoy, Gayevka). Minor damage reported to houses, cars, agricultural vehicle. No casualties reported. Photos shared. (RVvoenkor reiterates 15:39 UTC).

IV. Unmanned Systems & Technology

  • Unmanned Ground Systems (UGS):
    • RU Assessment of UA UGS (Colonelcassad, 15:42 UTC): Detailed analysis presented covering UA development/deployment timeline (first 3 companies June 2024, funding Nov 2024/Mar 2025, operator school Nov 2024, fiber-optic UGS Mar 2025). Highlights Dec 2024 operation by 13th NGU Bde "Khartia" using only UGS/FPVs (detailed at UK IAV conference Jan 2025). Lists 20 UA units currently incorporating UGS (incl. Mech, Assault, Air Assault, Marine, SOF, NGU, Drone Bdes). Notes Brave1 cluster role in addressing challenges (EW-resistant nav, autonomous targeting, endurance, protection from UAVs). Concludes UGS aim to compensate for UA shortages (logistics, evac, kamikaze platforms substituting FABs, personnel) cost-effectively, acknowledging they don't replace humans but expand capabilities. Includes infographics assessing specific UA UGS roles (logistics, turreted, kamikaze, demining, evac, transport) with generally low effectiveness ratings cited due to comms, mobility, reliability issues.
  • Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS):
    • German HF-1 Kamikaze Drones (UA Use): UA SOF confirmed using German Helsing HF-1 AI-enabled loitering munitions. ~1000 delivered. Tested in Sumy Oblast. Specs: ~1hr endurance, 45-50km range, targets include armor, AD, logistics, warehouses. Features AI terminal guidance (target lock retention even if comms lost). (RBC-Ukraine / BILD, 15:13 UTC). Videos/photos released.
    • FPV Drones: Increased UA FPV use noted by RU sources in Soledar-Bakhmut direction (Sternenko, 15:10 UTC). UA targeting RU drone operators/equipment (Biloshitsky, 15:03 UTC). RU units targeting alleged UA heavy drones ("Baba Yaga") (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 15:37 UTC).
    • Counter-UAS: UA 39th Tac Aviation Bde demonstrates destroying Shahed with S-60 57mm AA gun (Butusov, 15:18 UTC). RU promoting anti-FPV training, fitting anti-drone nets (e.g., on Sarmat-3 vehicle).
  • Bradley M2A2 ODS SA Assessment (Alleged RU Report via UA Source, 15:12 UTC): Captured Bradley assessed by RU 38th NII BTT (Kubinka). Conclusion: Bradley superior to RU BMP-3 in protection (ballistic, mine) and maintainability/ergonomics, but inferior in mobility/range/amphibious capability. Specific protection levels claimed: Side resists 30mm 3UBR6 (not 3UBR8); Front resists 30mm 3UBR8; Front w/ BRAT ERA resists PG-9VS/PG-7VL. Side BRAT sometimes stopped ATGMs. Framing: RU prioritizes quantity over quality.
  • Russian Sarmat-3 Light Armored Vehicle: Rare vehicle observed operating near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) with 11th VDV Bde. Described as 3.5t, 150hp diesel, 150km/h max speed, anti-fragmentation armor, fitted with anti-drone net. Reported cramped interior. Claimed survival after TM-mine hit considered lucky. Praised by troops but needs minor refinement. (Voenkor Kotenok, 15:39 UTC).

V. Information Environment & Political Developments

  • Casualty Reporting: Kryvyi Rih Apr 4 attack death toll rises to 20. Conflicting claims persist regarding Basivka control (Kursk/Sumy border). RU MoD continues claims of high UA losses/equipment destruction.
  • Propaganda/Narratives:
    • RU sources heavily promote analysis of UA UGS development, alleged UA POW guidelines, videos of strikes, troop morale messages (WarGonzo, Basurin), and alleged captured UA documents (Dva Mayora).
    • RU sources warn internally about fake propaganda videos undermining credibility (Dva Mayora/Rybar, 15:56 UTC).
    • RU sources disseminate map allegedly showing flight paths of RU missiles/drones during Apr 5-6 attack (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • UA sources highlight civilian impacts of RU strikes (Kryvyi Rih, Kupyansk, Nikopol, Zolochiv), successful counter-drone/equipment strikes (S-60 vs Shahed), equipment analysis (Bradley), and symbolic actions (Sudzha flag claim).
  • Diplomatic / Economic:
    • Ramstein Meeting (Apr 11): Key UA focus on securing additional Patriot systems and discussing potential partner contingents (Zelenskyy).
    • US Policy: US official (Hassett) cited claiming Trump excluded Russia from new tariffs to avoid disrupting Ukraine peace talks (TASS/RBC-Ukraine). [Potential InfoOp/Political context]
    • China-Ukraine Trade (Infrastructure): RU sources detail alleged contracts (via Metinvest) for supply of Chinese state-owned company (China Baowu group subsidiaries like Pangang Group) railway rails to Ukraine, framing it as state-approved support for infrastructure used against Russia (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 15:15 UTC). Documents shared. [Potential InfoOp/Geopolitical context]
  • NATO Posture: RU source provides analysis of increased NATO tactical aviation presence on Eastern Flank, particularly Baltic region, assessing it as escalation and support for UA AD (Dva Mayora, 15:59 UTC).
  • Humanitarian: Kryvyi Rih death toll rises; Day of Mourning observed. Ongoing civilian impacts from strikes in Dnipropetrovsk (Nikopol, Novopavlivsk) and Kharkiv (Zolochiv) Oblasts.
Previous (2025-04-06 15:32:43Z)

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