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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 15:32:43Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 15:02:52Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 15:31 UTC


I. Air & Missile Activity

  • Ballistic Missile Threat Status (as of 15:31 UTC):
    • Threat declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other regions under air alert (Zaporizhzhia OVA / UA AF, 14:48-14:50 UTC; RBC-Ukraine 15:03 UTC).
    • Air alert ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 15:29 UTC).
    • Air threats ended in all regions (UA AF, 15:29 UTC).
  • Ongoing Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threats (as of 15:31 UTC):
    • Donetsk Oblast: Persistent threat. Repeated launches reported by RU tactical aviation (UA AF, 13:57 UTC; 15:05 UTC).
    • Kharkiv City/Oblast: Persistent threat previously noted (UA AF, 13:48-13:53 UTC).
    • General Frontline: Persistent threat due to continued RU tactical aviation activity (UA AF).
  • Russian UAV Activity:
    • Detected in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast; potential Air Defence engagement reported (UA AF, 15:16 UTC).
  • Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
    • Interceptions (UA AF): 53 air targets intercepted (6/9 Kh-101/55SM, 6/8 Kalibr, 1/6 Iskander-M, 40/109 Shahed/Decoy). 53 decoys reportedly lost track. RU sources disseminated alleged UA map showing flight paths (Dnevnik Desantnika, 15:29 UTC).
    • Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF Spokesperson): Confirmed 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were NOT intercepted and impacted targets (Obolonskyi/Darnytskyi districts).
    • Impacts & Damage (Ukraine):
      • Kyiv City/Oblast: 1 Civilian Killed, 5 Injured. Significant non-residential infrastructure damage (incl. Freedom TV office), fires, car wash damage.
      • Sumy Oblast: 8 Shaheds struck civil infrastructure, no casualties.
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: Debris injured 4 civilians.
      • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 1 missile downed, 1 civilian injured.
      • Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): KAB strike damaged residential building (9th floor), injured 2 civilians (Apr 6). Video confirms aftermath (Operativnyi ZSU, 15:00 UTC).
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 449 RU strikes (past 24h), 1 house damaged, no casualties (OVA).
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 6):
        • Nikopol District (Nikopol city, Pokrovsk hromada): Attacked by RU strike UAVs and artillery. Cafe, 4 private houses, 2 gas pipelines, power line damaged. No casualties. (Lysak/OVA, 15:30 UTC). Photos show damaged houses.
        • Synelnykove District (Novopavlivsk hromada): RU KAB airstrike reported in afternoon. 3 civilians injured (preliminary). Damage assessment ongoing. (Lysak/OVA, 15:30 UTC).
  • Russian Tactical Shift: Increased use of ballistic missiles noted since early 2024 (UA AF Assessment).
  • Ukrainian Air Defence Focus (Zelenskyy, Apr 6 - 15:25 UTC):
    • Instructions issued to intensify partner contacts regarding Air Defence (specifically Patriot systems) ahead of Apr 11 Ramstein meeting. Key objectives: additional Patriot systems, ensuring rapid partner decisions/actions regarding potential contingents.
    • Bilateral work with USA prioritized for AD assistance. Emphasized need for political will/decisions for systems currently available with partners.
    • Highlighted recent RU Black Sea missile launches, asserting partners know launch platforms/locations. Stated RU refusal of ceasefire linked to desire to maintain sea-based strike capability.
    • Emphasized need for continued pressure (defense capabilities, sanctions, diplomacy) on Russia.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6): 481 air targets destroyed; ~100 aviation sorties; 944 drone brigade combat sorties (>35 RU personnel hit est.).
  • Counter-Drone Actions:
    • UA 81st Airmobile Bde claimed downing a Lancet drone (Apr 6).
    • "Horizon Group" claimed downing 8 RU recon UAVs using FPV drones (Apr 6).
    • UA 63rd Brigade reported shooting down 7 RU drones with small arms (Apr 6).
    • UA interception efforts reported successful against RU recon UAVs (Orlan, Molniya, Zala, Supercam), forcing RU reliance on crowdfunding for replacements (UA Sources / Spetspidrozdil "Sokil-2", Apr 4).
    • Video released showing UA 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade destroying a Shahed drone using an S-60 57mm AA gun (Butusov, 15:18 UTC). Demonstrates adaptation of older systems.
    • UA forces actively targeting RU drone operators and associated equipment (e.g., antennas, Starlink terminals) (Biloshitsky, 15:03 UTC).
  • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): 19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (incl. 11 children); Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition; Day of Mourning observed (Apr 6). Video shows debris clearing operations at impacted restaurant site (Colonelcassad, 15:29 UTC).
  • Kharkiv City Drone Attack (Apr 3-4): 5 KIA, 32 WIA. Extensive damage to residential buildings/infrastructure. Improvised UA retaliatory munitions displayed ("Kharkiv souvenirs").
  • Counter-Radar Strike (RU Claim, Apr 6): RU "Akhmat" unit claims destruction of a US-made AN/TPQ-48 counter-battery radar near Udy (Kharkiv direction) using an FPV drone (Kadyrov_95, 14:33 UTC). Video released.

II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation

  • Overall Intensity: Remains HIGH. 75 combat engagements recorded since start of Apr 6 (UGS 13:00 UTC). Intense fighting persists on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Significant pressure previously noted on Pokrovsk (57 attacks Apr 3-4) and Toretsk (29 attacks Apr 3-4).
  • Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
    • Basivka Situation (Sumy Oblast): RU MoD claimed capture (Apr 6). UA Border Guard Spokesperson (Demchenko, 14:43 UTC) denies capture, confirms RU groups present but village NOT under RU control. States RU attempts with small groups are being destroyed. Combat ongoing.
    • Huyevo (Kursk Oblast): RU sources claim advance and flag raised. RU MoD/WarGonzo claim UA units being pushed out (Apr 6). RU video claims artillery strike by 30 MSP / 72 MSD / 44 AK on alleged group of 4 UA soldiers in Huyevo (WarGonzo, 15:11 UTC).
    • Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast): RU MoD/WarGonzo claim attacks towards Oleshnia (Apr 6).
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast; 6 engagements ongoing. RU conducted 93 arty/13 MLRS shellings, 5 air strikes (11 KABs).
    • RU Activity Claims: FPV drone use disrupting UA rotations near Sumy border. RU "Sever" group claims strikes on multiple UA brigades, inflicting >170 UA casualties (inflated). RU sources claim destruction of UA Border Guard (94 POGO, originally from Chop) positions/personnel in Sudzha area; allege high losses and unit dispersal into 225 OShP / 47 OMBr. Display alleged captured documents (Dva Mayora, 15:21 UTC).
    • UA Activity: Colombian volunteers confirmed operating with UA 47th Mechanized Brigade in Kursk Oblast. UA 82nd Air Assault Brigade confirmed operating in Kursk Oblast (Zelenskyy visit context, Apr 4). Ukrainian SOF reported testing German HF-1 kamikaze drones in Sumy Oblast (RBC-Ukraine, 15:13 UTC).
  • Belgorod Border:
    • Popovka Area: Reports indicate RU counter-attack (155th Naval Infantry) after UA advance; RU claims UA retreated 600m. UA drone activity targeting RU logistics reported. Drone footage shows aftermath of fighting/casualties in border forest strip near Krasnoyaruzhsky district (RU propaganda source - Colonelcassad, 14:46 UTC). Heavy fighting previously reported near Dmitrovka/Popovka.
  • Kharkiv Axis:
    • Recent: No RU offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6). RU Aviation struck multiple settlements. Previous day (Apr 5): 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka. Apr 3-4: 4 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk/Kamyanka.
    • RU Claims: Published combat footage allegedly from Vovchansk direction (Apr 6). Claimed Tornado-S strike near Semenivka (Apr 5). Claimed destruction of UA counter-battery radar near Udy (Apr 6).
  • Kupyansk Axis:
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 2 RU attacks ongoing near Pishchane. Previous day (Apr 5): 6 attacks repelled.
    • Territorial Changes: ISW previously reported UA advance near Kupyansk (Apr 6).
    • Aftermath: Video confirms damage to residential building from RU strike (Apr 6).
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 11 RU attacks conducted near Novoyehorivka, Nove, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, towards Torske; 5 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 26 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 19 attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims (Advances): Claimed tactical advances: +300m from Ivanivka towards Zelena Dolyna; +200m towards Nove; +350m South from Yampolivka towards Torske (Apr 6). Claimed expanding control N of Novoliubivka (Apr 4). DeepState previously reported RU advance near Novoliubivka (Apr 5).
    • UA Activity: 66th Brigade drone strike destroyed RU soldier with TM-62 mine (Apr 4). 63rd Brigade claimed intercept revealing RU plan to fire on own retreating troops (Apr 4).
  • Siversk Axis: No active RU offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6). Previous day: 5 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 4 attacks repelled.
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): No active RU offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6). Previous day: 3 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 3 attacks repelled. RU sources report increased UA FPV drone use in Soledar-Bakhmut direction (Sternenko, 15:10 UTC).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA repelled 7 RU assaults near Dachne, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka; 3 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 20 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: Significantly increased intensity (29 attacks repelled).
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claim capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka)/Panteleimonivka (Apr 6). DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city (Apr 5). ISW reported RU advance near Toretsk (Apr 6). RU claimed capture of Oleksandropil (Apr 3).
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 29 RU attempts near Sukha Balka, Kalynove, Udachne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotliarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka. 21 attacks repelled, engagements ongoing. Previous day: 75 attacks stopped. Apr 3-4: 57 attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claim continued advance into defense depth. Claim tactical success in Udachne; advancing in Lysovka, towards Novoolexandrivka, W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Claim offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk border near Novoolexandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka (Apr 5). ISW reported RU advance near Pokrovsk (Apr 6). RU claimed advance W of Andriivka towards Oleksiivka (Apr 4). RU video compilation (Apr 4) shows strikes on UA tanks, armor, arty, positions (RVvoenkor, 15:13 UTC).
    • UA Activity: Video shows UA 30th Mech Bde airstrike on RU concentration point (Operativnyi ZSU, 15:23 UTC).
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate to High intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA holding back enemy near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; 3 attacks ongoing, 1 assault stopped. Previous day: 8 assaults repelled. Apr 3-4: 9 attacks repelled.
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claimed 1.5 km advance W along Bohdanivka - Andriivka line (SW of Kurakhove, Apr 6). Claim fierce fighting near Rozlyv, cleared tree lines, captured height. Claim advances E/SE of Bohatyr (up to 1km deep x 1.2km wide). Claim capture of heights near Bohatyr. Claim advance W of Razliv (Apr 4). Claim capture of Vesele (Apr 3-4, flag raised), advancing towards Komar. RU video shows BM-21 Grad strike (37 GMSBr / 36 CAA) on Komar (Voin DV, 15:00 UTC). RU claim advance towards Shevchenko (3rd settlement with this name in area, near alleged lithium deposits) (Colonelcassad, 15:12 UTC). Map visualization provided. RU claim Archer SPG destroyed (Apr 6).
    • UA Activity: 46th Airmobile Bde engaged. 44th Artillery Bde reports successful strikes.
  • Huliaipole Axis: 2 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne (UGS Apr 6). Previous day: 1 attack repelled.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity.
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA repelled 3 Russian attacks towards Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. RU aviation (KABs) struck Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriivka. Previous day: 4 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 8 attacks repelled (increased intensity).
    • RU Claims / Advances: Claim capture of Lobkove (Apr 3). Claim capture of positions/equipment near Shcherbaky (Apr 4). DeepState previously reported RU advance in Mali Shcherbaky. RU video shows EOD clearing alleged French M70 mines on this axis (MoD Russia, 14:59 UTC). RU video shows morale messages from BARS-11 unit operating on this front (WarGonzo, 15:26 UTC).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
    • UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): No active RU offensive actions. Previous day: 2 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 2 attempts repelled. Ukrainian positions maintained.
    • Tactical Situation (RU Perspective): RU sources describe "stable tension," main UA threat assessed as FPV/mining drones from Kherson city. Note increased UA attempts to cross Dnipro with small boats (paired with drone boats), but claim UA suffers boat shortages. Claim RU control over left bank/islands/delta.

III. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory

  • Drone Attacks (Belgorod Oblast - Governor Report, 15:16 UTC):
    • 8 settlements attacked by alleged UA drones. No casualties reported.
    • Shebekinsky District: Damage to houses/fences in Rzhevka (detonation near house), Shebekino (windows), Voznesenovka (windows); agricultural vehicle damaged near Belyanka; car glass damaged in Nizhneye Beryozovo-Vtoroye.
    • Borisovsky District: Roof damage to house in Beryozovka (dropped explosive).
    • Krasnoyaruzhsky District: Wall/window damage to house in Vyazovskoy khutor.
    • Volokonovsky District: Car damaged at agricultural site in Gayevka khutor.
    • Photos show damage to houses and cars.

IV. Other Noteworthy Information

  • Unmanned Systems & Technology:
    • Unmanned Ground Systems (UGS): RU sources provide detailed analysis of UA UGS development/deployment (logistics, assault, kamikaze, mining, etc.), noting dedicated units and Brave1 cluster role. Acknowledge potential but effectiveness issues (comms, mobility).
    • Bradley M2A2 ODS SA Analysis (Alleged RU Report via UA Source, 15:00 / 15:12 UTC): Captured Bradley assessed by RU 38th NII BTT (Kubinka) as superior to RU BMP-3 in protection (ballistic, mine - citing layered hull bottom, polymer mat, shock-absorbing seats) and maintainability/ergonomics, but inferior in mobility/range/amphibious capability. Specific protection levels claimed: Side resists 30mm 3UBR6, not 3UBR8; Front resists 30mm 3UBR8; Front w/ BRAT ERA resists PG-9VS/PG-7VL, instances of side BRAT stopping ATGMs cited. Conclusion framed as RU prioritizing quantity over quality.
    • German HF-1 Kamikaze Drones (UA Use): UA SOF reportedly using German Helsing HF-1 AI-enabled loitering munitions. ~1000 delivered. Tested in Sumy Oblast. Specs: ~1hr endurance, 45-50km range, targets include armor, AD, logistics, warehouses. Features AI terminal guidance (target lock retention even if comms lost). (RBC-Ukraine / BILD, 15:13 UTC). Videos/photos released.
  • Weather: Worsening conditions (frost, potential ice) expected from Apr 7 in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and other regions, potentially impacting operations.
  • Russian Capabilities & Issues:
    • Air Defence: Confirmed failure to intercept 5 of 6 Iskander-M targeting Kyiv Oblast (Apr 5-6).
    • Personnel/Morale: Alleged case of commander extortion (missing soldier's relative). Reports/video testimonials ("Storm V" unit) allege inadequate equipment, low pay, commanders using drones against own troops, poor treatment of injured (Apr 4). RU focus on propaganda messages (WarGonzo troop greetings/morale videos, Basurin religious video). RU promoting alleged captured UA POW guidelines (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 14:34 UTC). High losses claimed among UA Border Guard units transferred to Kursk front (Dva Mayora, 15:21 UTC).
    • Force Generation: Spring 2025 conscription aims for 160,000. Lipetsk Oblast governor reports regional mobilization support efforts (IT training, UAV piloting classes).
    • Logistics: Persistent reliance on crowdfunding noted.
    • Equipment: Photo of Mi-28NM helicopter shared (Fighterbomber, 15:19 UTC).
  • Information Environment: Conflicting claims persist regarding Basivka control and strike casualties/targets. RU MoD continues to claim high UA losses and destruction of Western systems (Archer, M777, MaxxPro, AN/TPQ-48). RU sources heavily promote analysis of UA UGS, alleged UA POW guidelines, videos of strikes, and troop morale messages. RU propaganda shows extreme anti-Ukrainian rhetoric (WarGonzo description of UA soldiers, 15:11 UTC). UA sources highlight infrastructure neglect in occupied Donetsk (Shakhtar stadium photos), civilian impacts of RU strikes (Kupyansk, Nikopol), and successful counter-drone/equipment strikes. Dissemination of alleged UA map showing RU strike trajectories noted (Dnevnik Desantnika, 15:29 UTC).
  • Diplomatic / Economic:
    • Ramstein Meeting (Apr 11): Key UA focus on securing additional Patriot systems and discussing potential partner contingents (Zelenskyy).
    • US-Russia Talks: Cited by White House advisor (Hassett) as reason Russia was excluded from new US tariffs, questioned by UA sources. New contacts claimed expected next week (RU source). (TASS, 15:14 UTC).
    • EU-US Trade: EU reportedly preparing retaliatory tariffs against US (Operativnyi ZSU / Reuters, 14:34 UTC).
    • China-Ukraine Trade (Infrastructure): RU sources detail contracts (via Metinvest) for supply of Chinese state-owned company (China Baowu group subsidiaries like Pangang Group) railway rails to Ukraine, framing it as state-approved support for infrastructure used against Russia (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 15:15 UTC). Documents shared.
  • Humanitarian: Ukrainian Ombudsman reports return of 45 Ukrainians. Ongoing cleanup after Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kupyansk, Nikopol strikes. Day of Mourning observed in Kryvyi Rih (Apr 6). 3 civilians injured in RU KAB strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Apr 6).
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