Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 15:00 UTC
I. Air & Missile Activity
Active Ballistic Missile Threat (as of 15:00 UTC): Threat declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other regions under air alert (Zaporizhzhia OVA / UA AF, 14:48-14:50 UTC).
Ongoing Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threats (as of 14:30 UTC):
Kharkiv City/Oblast: Persistent threat. Previous launches towards northern Oblast and Kharkiv city reported (UA AF, 13:48-13:53 UTC).
Donetsk Oblast: Persistent threat from repeated RU tactical aviation launches (UA AF, 13:57 UTC).
General Frontline: Persistent threat due to continued RU tactical aviation activity (UA AF).
Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
Interceptions (UA AF):53 air targets intercepted (6/9 Kh-101/55SM, 6/8 Kalibr, 1/6 Iskander-M, 40/109 Shahed/Decoy). 53 decoys reportedly lost track.
Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF Spokesperson): Confirmed 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were NOT intercepted and impacted targets (Obolonskyi/Darnytskyi districts).
Impacts & Damage:
Kyiv City/Oblast:1 Civilian Killed, 5 Injured. Significant non-residential infrastructure damage (incl. Freedom TV office), fires, car wash damage.
Sumy Oblast: 8 Shaheds struck civil infrastructure, no casualties.
UA 63rd Brigade reported shooting down 7 RU drones with small arms (Apr 6).
UA interception efforts reported successful against RU recon UAVs (Orlan, Molniya, Zala, Supercam), forcing RU reliance on crowdfunding for replacements (UA Sources / Spetspidrozdil "Sokil-2", Apr 4).
Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4):19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (incl. 11 children); Confirmed Iskander-M with cluster munition; Day of Mourning observed (Apr 6).
Kharkiv City Drone Attack (Apr 3-4):5 KIA, 32 WIA. Extensive damage to residential buildings/infrastructure. Improvised UA retaliatory munitions displayed ("Kharkiv souvenirs").
Counter-Radar Strike (RU Claim, Apr 6): RU "Akhmat" unit claims destruction of a US-made AN/TPQ-48 counter-battery radar near Udy (Kharkiv direction) using an FPV drone.
II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation
Overall Intensity: Remains HIGH. 75 combat engagements recorded since start of Apr 6 (UGS 13:00 UTC). Intense fighting persists on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Significant pressure previously noted on Pokrovsk (57 attacks Apr 3-4) and Toretsk (29 attacks Apr 3-4).
Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
Basivka Situation (Sumy Oblast): RU MoD claimed capture (Apr 6). UA Border Guard Spokesperson (Demchenko, Apr 6) denies capture, calls it disinformation, confirms RU attempts with small groups (being destroyed), admits RU groups present in Basivka but village is NOT under RU control. Combat ongoing.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast; 6 engagements ongoing. RU conducted 93 arty/13 MLRS shellings, 5 air strikes (11 KABs).
RU Activity Claims: Advance in Huyevo, flag raised (Kursk Oblast). Attacks towards Oleshnia. FPV drone use disrupting UA rotations near Sumy border. RU "Sever" group claims strikes on multiple UA brigades, inflicting >170 UA casualties (inflated).
UA Activity: Colombian volunteers confirmed operating with UA 47th Mechanized Brigade in Kursk Oblast. UA 82nd Air Assault Brigade confirmed operating in Kursk Oblast (Zelenskyy visit context, Apr 4).
Belgorod Border:
Popovka Area: Reports indicate RU counter-attack (155th Naval Infantry) after UA advance; RU claims UA retreated 600m. UA drone activity targeting RU logistics reported. Drone footage shows aftermath of fighting/casualties in border forest strip (RU propaganda source). Heavy fighting previously reported near Dmitrovka/Popovka.
Kharkiv Axis:
Recent: No RU offensive actions reported (UGS Apr 6). RU Aviation struck multiple settlements. Previous day (Apr 5): 1 RU attack repelled near Kamyanka. Apr 3-4: 4 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk/Kamyanka.
RU Claims: Published combat footage allegedly from Vovchansk direction (Apr 6). Claimed Tornado-S strike near Semenivka (Apr 5). Claimed destruction of UA counter-battery radar near Udy (Apr 6).
Kupyansk Axis:
UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 2 RU attacks ongoing near Pishchane. Previous day (Apr 5): 6 attacks repelled.
Territorial Changes: ISW previously reported UA advance near Kupyansk (Apr 6).
Aftermath: Video confirms damage to residential building from RU strike (Apr 6).
Lyman Axis:High intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): 11 RU attacks conducted near Novoyehorivka, Nove, Kolodyazi, Yampolivka, towards Torske; 5 engagements ongoing. Previous day: 26 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 19 attacks repelled.
RU Claims (Advances): Claimed tactical advances: +300m from Ivanivka towards Zelena Dolyna; +200m towards Nove; +350m South from Yampolivka towards Torske (Apr 6). Claimed expanding control N of Novoliubivka (Apr 4). DeepState previously reported RU advance near Novoliubivka (Apr 5).
UA Activity: 66th Brigade drone strike destroyed RU soldier with TM-62 mine (Apr 4). 63rd Brigade claimed intercept revealing RU plan to fire on own retreating troops (Apr 4).
RU Claims / Advances: Claim continued advance into defense depth. Claim tactical success in Udachne; advancing in Lysovka, towards Novoolexandrivka, W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Claim offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk border near Novoolexandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Bohdanivka (Apr 5). ISW reported RU advance near Pokrovsk (Apr 6). RU claimed advance W of Andriivka towards Oleksiivka (Apr 4).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate to High intensity.
UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): UA holding back enemy near Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil; 3 attacks ongoing, 1 assault stopped. Previous day: 8 assaults repelled. Apr 3-4: 9 attacks repelled.
RU Claims / Advances: Claimed 1.5 km advance W along Bohdanivka - Andriivka line (SW of Kurakhove, Apr 6). Claim fierce fighting near Rozlyv, cleared tree lines, captured height. Claim advances E/SE of Bohatyr (up to 1km deep x 1.2km wide). Claim capture of heights near Bohatyr. Claim advance W of Razliv (Apr 4). Claim capture of Vesele (Apr 3-4, flag raised), advancing towards Komar. RU video shows BM-21 Grad strike on Komar (Apr 6). RU claim Archer SPG destroyed (Apr 6).
RU Claims / Advances: Claim capture of Lobkove (Apr 3). Claim capture of positions/equipment near Shcherbaky (Apr 4). DeepState previously reported RU advance in Mali Shcherbaky. RU video shows EOD clearing alleged French M70 mines on this axis (Apr 6).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank):
UGS Report (13:00 UTC Apr 6): No active RU offensive actions. Previous day: 2 attacks repelled. Apr 3-4: 2 attempts repelled. Ukrainian positions maintained.
Tactical Situation (RU Perspective): RU sources describe "stable tension," main UA threat assessed as FPV/mining drones from Kherson city. Note increased UA attempts to cross Dnipro with small boats (paired with drone boats), but claim UA suffers boat shortages. Claim RU control over left bank/islands/delta.
III. Other Noteworthy Information
Unmanned Systems & Technology:
Unmanned Ground Systems (UGS): RU sources provide detailed analysis of UA UGS development/deployment (logistics, assault, kamikaze, mining, etc.), noting dedicated units and Brave1 cluster role. Acknowledge potential but effectiveness issues (comms, mobility).
Bradley M2A2 ODS SA Analysis (Alleged RU Report via UA Source): Captured Bradley assessed as superior to RU BMP-3 in protection (ballistic, mine) and maintainability, but inferior in mobility/range/amphibious capability. Concludes RU armor prioritizes quantity over quality.
Weather: Worsening conditions (frost, potential ice) expected from Apr 7 in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and other regions, potentially impacting operations.
Russian Capabilities & Issues:
Air Defence: Confirmed failure to intercept 5 of 6 Iskander-M targeting Kyiv Oblast (Apr 5-6).
Personnel/Morale: Alleged case of commander extortion (missing soldier's relative). Reports/video testimonials ("Storm V" unit) allege inadequate equipment, low pay, commanders using drones against own troops, poor treatment of injured (Apr 4). RU focus on propaganda messages (WarGonzo troop greetings, Basurin religious video). RU promoting alleged captured UA POW guidelines.
Force Generation: Spring 2025 conscription aims for 160,000. Lipetsk Oblast governor reports regional mobilization support efforts (IT training, UAV piloting classes).
Logistics: Persistent reliance on crowdfunding noted.
Information Environment: Conflicting claims persist regarding Basivka control and strike casualties/targets. RU MoD continues to claim high UA losses and destruction of Western systems (Archer, M777, MaxxPro). RU sources heavily promote analysis of UA UGS and alleged UA POW guidelines. RU propaganda shows troop morale messages, religious observances, anti-US vehicles ("Sarmatobil"), and extreme anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. UA sources highlight infrastructure neglect in occupied Donetsk (Shakhtar stadium photos).
Diplomatic / Economic:
Ramstein Meeting (Apr 11): Key UA focus on securing additional Patriot systems and discussing potential partner contingents (Zelenskyy).
US-Russia Talks: Cited by White House advisor (Hassett) as reason Russia was excluded from new US tariffs. Questioned by UA sources. New contacts claimed expected next week (RU source).
EU-US Trade: EU reportedly preparing retaliatory tariffs against US.
Humanitarian: Ukrainian Ombudsman reports return of 45 Ukrainians. Ongoing cleanup after Kyiv strikes. Day of Mourning observed in Kryvyi Rih (Apr 6).
