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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 11:02:45Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 10:32:42Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 11:00 UTC


I. Major Developments & Air/Missile Activity

  • Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
    • Targeting: Confirmed strikes occurred in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian MoD claims specifically targeted a central Ukrainian artillery base and UAV production facilities. Other RU sources claimed targeting of airbases (Starokostiantyniv, Ozerne, Uman) and additional locations (Pavlohrad, Zolotonosha, Boryspil, Obukhiv, etc.).
    • Weapons & Interceptions (UA AF Summary): 132 air targets tracked (9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M, 109x Shahed/Decoy). 53 targets intercepted (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed). 53 decoy drones lost track without reported impacts.
    • Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast - UA AF Spokesperson Ihnat): Confirmed 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted and impacted targets within the region.
    • Impacts & Damage (Updated):
      • Kyiv City/Oblast:
        • Casualties: 1 Civilian Killed (Kyiv City), 5 Civilians Injured (3 in Kyiv city; 1 with burns in Fastivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast; 1 other unspecified - OMA/RBC-Ukraina/UGS).
        • Damage: Significant damage to non-residential infrastructure. Fires/destruction in Darnytskyi district buildings. Partial collapse (3rd-5th floors) and large fire at a 5-story business center in Obolonskyi district (damaging offices of Ukrainian/international media outlets, including Freedom TV channel - RU claim). Fires/damage in Solomianskyi district. Damage to a car wash/service station destroying/damaging 10 vehicles in Brovarskyi district. OGP investigating as a war crime.
      • Sumy Oblast: 8 Shahed UAVs struck civil infrastructure (admin/warehouse buildings, vehicles). No casualties reported.
      • Mykolaiv Oblast: Debris from 7 downed Shaheds injured 4 civilians, damaged houses/vehicles. Russian sources claim Kh-101 strike near Voznesensk.
      • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: 1 missile downed, 1 civilian woman injured, building/vehicle damage. Russian sources claim Kalibr strikes on Starokostiantyniv airbase.
      • Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast): KAB strike on 9-story residential building caused fire, structural damage, 2 civilians injured (Apr 6).
      • Other Regions: Russian sources claim strikes in Cherkasy (Uman airbase, Zolotonosha), Kharkiv (UMPK/Geran), Zaporizhzhia (MLRS/UMPK), Zhytomyr (Ozerne airbase), Dnipropetrovsk (Pavlohrad), Poltava (Oposhnia/Poltava). Zaporizhzhia OVA reported 449 RU strikes (past 24h) on 9 settlements, 1 house damaged, no casualties.
  • Russian Tactical Shift (UA AF Assessment - Spokesperson Ihnat): Russia has increased the proportion of ballistic missiles used since early 2024, likely due to their interception difficulty (requiring systems like Patriot). Russia continues modifying missiles and drones, necessitating continuous information sharing with partners for air defense adaptation.
  • President Zelenskyy Statement Summary (Apr 6): Condemned escalating Russian air attacks, citing >1460 KABs, ~670 Shaheds, >30 missiles launched in the past week. Stated current pressure on Russia is insufficient.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6):
    • Air Defence: 481 air targets destroyed (incl. 6 Kh-101, 6 Kalibr, 1 Iskander-M, 2 Kh-59/69, 257 Shaheds, 106 recon UAVs, 103 other UAVs).
    • Aviation Sorties: Approx. 100 sorties conducted ( >50 fighter cover, ~30 strike/support); dozens of strikes hit RU CPs, logistics, personnel/equipment.
    • Drone Brigade Strikes: 944 combat sorties (837 recon, 107 strike/FPV); estimated >35 RU personnel, 6 shelters, 4 vehicles hit.
  • Recent Counter-UAV Successes (UA Claim): "Horizon Group" reportedly downed 8 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (4x Supercam, 2x Zala, 2x Orlan) using FPV drones (Apr 6).
  • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4):
    • Casualties: Final figures: 19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 75 WIA (incl. 11 children, 4 in serious/critical condition - ASTRA update). 37 remain hospitalized (Apr 4).
    • Mourning: National day of mourning observed (Apr 6). Kryvyi Rih mourning Apr 7-9. Residents continue placing flowers/toys at the attack site (playground).
    • Attribution/Narrative: UA maintains Iskander-M (cluster munition claim) strike caused casualties; Russian narratives blaming UA AD or claiming strike hit foreign officers actively countered. Retaliatory strikes by UA units confirmed.
  • Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory (RU Claims):
    • RU MoD/Multiple Sources: Claimed 7 UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the past 24 hours (Apr 5-6). Energy facilities reportedly damaged in Crimea, Bryansk, Rostov, and Voronezh Oblasts due to UA UAV strikes. Specific times/locations/impacts detailed (damage to high-voltage lines, power facilities, gas pipelines). RU MoD asserts UA attacks on energy facilities have not stopped despite alleged agreement. Operativnyi ZSU disputes veracity/transparency of RU claims.
    • Bryansk Governor: Detailed 3 UA UAV attacks on energy infrastructure in Bryansk Oblast (Apr 5), causing temporary power outages (restoration claimed). Attack on Belaia Berezka (Apr 3-4) resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 1 WIA.
    • Bryansk Border Villages: Allegations of continuous UA strikes targeting civilians and homes, causing damage and local discontent (Dnevnik Desantnika).

II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation

  • Overall Intensity: Combat intensity remains HIGH. 178 combat engagements recorded by UGS in the 24 hours preceding Apr 6 morning report. Intense fighting particularly on Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border axes. Difficult weather (rain, mud) reported impacting mobility (Apr 4).
  • Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
    • High intensity. UA forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (UGS, Apr 5-6).
    • RU CLAIM (Significant): RU MoD claims liberation of Basivka, Sumy Oblast (Apr 6). Requires verification.
    • Russian Claims: Expanded control claimed in Guevo (Kursk Obl.); fighting ongoing within Sumy Oblast territory. Advances claimed towards Oleshnia. Map updates show claimed advances in Guevo.
    • Territorial Assessment (RU Source): Claims UA bridgehead in Kursk Oblast reduced to 95.8 km²; claims RU forces control 47.2 km² of adjacent Sumy Oblast.
    • Civilian Impact: TASS reports 731 residents evacuated from Kursk border areas since Mar 12. RU sources allege UA attacks on border villages.
    • RU Claimed Losses: RU MoD claims >72,320 UA personnel losses on Kursk direction since start of fighting there (Apr 6). RU MoD claimed up to 65 UA losses in Belgorod direction (past 24h).
  • Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka. RU claims nearing blockade of Demidovka. RU claims successful strikes (incl. Bradley IFV) near Demidovka.
  • Kharkiv Axis: Complex situation. 1 Russian attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS, Apr 5-6). Previous RU claim (TASS/Marochko) of advance near Krasne Pershe, destroyed UA fortifications near Kamianka. RU KAB strike on Kupyansk residential building (Apr 6).
  • Kupyansk Axis: 6 Russian attacks repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, towards Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS, Apr 5-6). Russian sources claim advances S of Kamianka and along a >35km front. RU claims ongoing UA counterattacks (using NATO armor/SF) are being repelled. RU MoD claimed up to 230 UA losses (past 24h).
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity. 26 Russian attacks repelled near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna (UGS, Apr 5-6). Russian sources claim advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka, towards Katerynivka, and expanding control near Makiivka/Ivanivka/Nove. Geolocated destruction of UA PzH 2000 SPG confirmed (>6km from LBS).
  • Siversk Axis: 5 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske, towards Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka (UGS, Apr 5-6). RU MoD claimed up to 280 UA losses in Yug Group (Siversk/Toretsk/Kramatorsk) area (past 24h).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): 3 Russian attacks repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS, Apr 5-6).
    • RU CLAIM (Significant): Russian sources (TASS) claim the Ukrainian grouping in the Zakhidnyi (Western) microdistrict of Chasiv Yar has been destroyed. Requires verification. RU sources assess high UA motivation to hold Chasiv Yar heights.
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity. 20 Russian attacks repelled near Krymske, Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka (UGS, Apr 5-6). Russian sources claim capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka)/Panteleimonivka and fighting for Tarasivka/Zelene Pole.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest intensity. 75 Russian attacks stopped near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka; attacks towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyarivka, Oleksandropil (UGS, Apr 5-6).
    • Russian Claims: Tactical success claimed in Udachne; repelled UA counterattacks in Kotlyne; fighting near Shevchenko; advancing in Lysovka (corroborated by RU map update); advancing towards Novoolexandrivka, W of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. RU MoD claimed defeat of UA 'Omega' unit, up to 430 UA losses (past 24h).
    • UA Action: UA "Spartan" Brigade (NGU) reports ongoing effective defense and drone strikes.
  • Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate intensity. 8 Russian assaults repelled towards Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil (UGS, Apr 5-6).
    • Russian Claims (don_partizan/Colonelcassad): Advancing towards Bogatyr and Komar; fighting continues for Oleksiivka and near Volne Pole/Vesele/Rozlyv. Expanded control claimed 300m towards Kotlyarivka (Nadezhdynka area); 200m towards Bohatyr (Razliv area); 300m in Kostiantynopil area. Tactical success near Burlatske. RU MoD claimed over 130 UA losses (past 24h).
    • UA Activity: 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade confirmed redeployed from Zaporizhzhia direction to Kurakhove sector; engaged in heavy fighting in Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre, Kurakhove defense (UA DShV).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity. 4 Russian attacks repelled near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS, Apr 5-6).
    • Russian Claims: Capture of Lobkove; successes near Shcherbaky/Stepove; advancing near Kamyanske. Claimed destruction of 2 Starlink terminals and 1 repeater near Huliaipole. Claimed killing UA International Legion Sgt. Vyacheslav Kucheruk via FPV drone.
    • UA Capabilities: Zaporizhzhia OVA details significant March aid deliveries to 86 front units: 2500+ drones (FPV, Mavic, etc.), 100 EW systems, 61k+ remote mining components, vehicles, etc.
  • Huliaipole Axis: 1 Russian attack repelled near Rivnopil (UGS, Apr 5-6). Positional fighting, RU shelling.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low ground assault intensity. 2 Russian attacks repelled (UGS, Apr 5-6). Ukrainian positions maintained. RU sources claim increased FAB strikes by Russian Aerospace Forces. RU MoD claimed over 65 UA losses (past 24h).
  • Other Combat Notes:
    • RU Mine Use: RU sources claim destruction of UA "Kozak" armored vehicle by mine laid by RU 112th Rifle Regt.
    • UA Drone Strike: UA drone group "Hostri Kartuzy" claimed strike killing 5 RU soldiers transported by motorcycle. UA Border Guard RUbPAK "Phoenix" (Pomsta Brigade) claims destruction of 6 RU tanks, AFVs, EW system over 2 weeks.

III. Other Noteworthy Information

  • Hybrid Threats / Internal Security:
    • Report (The Guardian) alleges US-based neo-Nazi group "The Base" (leader Rinaldo Nazzaro residing in St. Petersburg) is paying individuals for terror attacks in Ukraine (targeting energy, military/police, government assets/personnel). Potential Russian special services operation suggested.
  • Russian Capabilities & Issues:
    • Personnel/Morale: Report via Butusov Plus details case of wounded RU Pvt. Litasov Khabib Alekseevich (b. Aug 2006, 18 y/o when injured Nov 2024, 6th Tank Regt, MU 93992) being pressured to return to unit prematurely with Ilizarov apparatus, denied full compensation, and threatened with desertion charges. Highlights potential severe issues with medical care, command practices, treatment of young soldiers, and morale.
    • Training: Video evidence shows RU Vostok group assault units conducting tactical training in a rear area.
    • Equipment/Logistics: Persistent crowdfunding appeals indicate needs. Continued evidence of FPV drone use. Military Auto Inspection units active in occupied areas.
    • Internal Issues: Air Defense problems (Kyiv ballistic missile impacts), social tensions (Bryansk border discontent claim), logistical challenges.
  • Information Environment:
    • Competing narratives on strike impacts (Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, RU energy infra). UA OGP investigating Kyiv attack as war crime. Zelenskyy emphasizes RU intent. UA AF clarifies ballistic missile impacts.
    • Russian sources claim hitting military targets (arty base, UAV production), destruction of UA group (Chasiv Yar), advances (Lysovka/Guevo/Basivka), high UA losses. Continue atrocity narratives (Kursk/Bryansk borders, Kryvyi Rih).
    • RU MoD Daily Briefing (Apr 6): Claims hitting UA arty base/UAV production, airfield infra/repair sites; defeating UA 'Omega' unit; achieving tactical gains/improved positions on multiple axes (Zapad, Yug, Tsentr, Vostok, Dnepr); specific UA brigades engaged; highly inflated UA loss figures (>65 Dnipro, >65 Belgorod, >230 West, >280 Yug, >430 Tsentr, >130 Vostok); claimed downing 1 JDAM/100 UAVs. Total claimed UA losses since Feb 2022 remain excessively high.
  • Humanitarian: Ukrainian Ombudsman reports return of 45 Ukrainians from occupied territories, Russia, and Belarus, citing rights restrictions, poor medical access, pressure, and risk under occupation administrations. Includes elderly, ill, and specific case of family whose father was allegedly abducted, tortured, and killed by occupying forces.
  • International: Germany plans NATO exercise "Red Storm Bravo" (Sep 2025). RU sources report US CL650 Artemis recon flights over Balkans (Apr 4-5). Reports of potential major US Army personnel cuts (30k-90k) driven by budget/Asia-Pacific pivot (potential long-term impact).
Previous (2025-04-06 10:32:42Z)

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