Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 10:30 UTC
I. Major Developments & Air/Missile Activity
Aftermath of Overnight Combined Air Assault (Apr 5-6):
Targeting: Confirmed strikes occurred in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian sources claim targeting of airbases (Starokostiantyniv, Ozerne, Uman) and other locations (Pavlohrad, Zolotonosha, Boryspil, Obukhiv, etc.).
Weapons & Interceptions (UA AF Summary): 132 air targets tracked (9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M, 109x Shahed/Decoy). 53 targets intercepted (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed). 53 decoy drones lost track without reported impacts.
Significant Interception Failure (Kyiv Oblast): UA Air Force confirms 5 out of 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched towards Kyiv Oblast were not intercepted and impacted targets within the region.
Impacts & Damage (Updated):
Kyiv City/Oblast:
Casualties:1 Civilian Killed, 4 Civilians Injured (3 in Kyiv city, 1 with burns in Fastivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast - OMA/RBC-Ukraina update).
Damage: Significant damage to non-residential infrastructure, including fires/destruction in Darnytskyi district buildings; partial collapse (3rd-5th floors) and large fire at a 5-story business center in Obolonskyi district (damaging offices of Ukrainian/international media outlets); fires/damage in Solomianskyi district. Damage to a car wash/service station destroying/damaging 10 vehicles in Brovarskyi district. OGP investigating as a war crime.
Russian Tactical Shift (UA AF Assessment): Russia has increased the proportion of ballistic missiles used since early 2024, likely due to their interception difficulty (requiring systems like Patriot). Russia continues modifying missiles and drones, necessitating continuous information sharing with partners for air defense adaptation.
President Zelenskyy Statement Summary (Apr 6): Condemned escalating Russian air attacks, citing >1460 KABs, ~670 Shaheds, >30 missiles launched in the past week. Stated current pressure on Russia is insufficient.
Ukrainian Air Force Weekly Summary (Mar 31 - Apr 6):
Air Defence:481 air targets destroyed (incl. 6 Kh-101, 6 Kalibr, 1 Iskander-M, 2 Kh-59/69, 257 Shaheds, 106 recon UAVs).
Aviation Sorties: Approx. 100 sorties conducted; dozens of strikes hit RU CPs, logistics, personnel/equipment.
Casualties: Final figures: 19 KIA (incl. 9 children), 74 WIA (37 hospitalized, 19 serious).
Mourning: National day of mourning observed (Apr 6). Kryvyi Rih mourning Apr 7-9.
Attribution/Narrative: UA maintains Iskander-M strike caused casualties; Russian narratives blaming UA AD actively countered. Retaliatory strikes by UA units confirmed.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory (RU Claims):
RU MoD: Claimed 7 UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the past 24 hours. Energy facilities reportedly damaged in Crimea, Bryansk, Rostov, and Voronezh Oblasts due to UA UAV strikes. Detailed report lists specific times/locations/impacts (Apr 5-6), alleging UA continues attacks despite supposed agreement.
Bryansk Governor: Detailed 3 UA UAV attacks on energy infrastructure in Bryansk Oblast (Apr 5), causing temporary power outages (restoration claimed).
Bryansk Border Villages: Allegations of continuous UA strikes targeting civilians and homes, causing damage and local discontent (Dnevnik Desantnika).
II. Ground Combat Operations & Frontline Situation
Overall Intensity: Combat intensity remains HIGH. 178 combat engagements recorded by UGS in the 24 hours preceding Apr 6 morning report.
Kursk/Sumy Border (Incl. Russian Territory):
High intensity. UA forces repelled 17 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast (UGS, past 24h).
Russian Claims: Expanded control claimed in Guevo (Kursk Obl.); fighting within Sumy Oblast territory. Map updates show claimed advances in Guevo.
Territorial Assessment (RU Source): Claims UA bridgehead in Kursk Oblast reduced to 95.8 km²; claims RU forces control 47.2 km² of adjacent Sumy Oblast.
Civilian Impact: TASS reports 731 residents evacuated from Kursk border areas since Mar 12. RU sources allege UA attacks on border villages.
Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka. RU claims nearing blockade of Demidovka.
Kupyansk Axis:6 Russian attacks repelled. Russian sources claim advances S of Kamianka. RU claims ongoing UA counterattacks (using NATO armor/SF) are being repelled.
Lyman Axis:High intensity. 26 Russian attacks repelled. Russian sources claim advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka and towards Katerynivka. Geolocated destruction of UA PzH 2000 SPG confirmed (>6km from LBS).
RU CLAIM (Significant): Russian sources (TASS) claim the Ukrainian grouping in the Zakhidnyi (Western) microdistrict of Chasiv Yar has been destroyed. Requires verification.
Toretsk Axis:High intensity. 20 Russian attacks repelled. Russian sources claim capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka)/Panteleimonivka and fighting for Tarasivka/Zelene Pole.
Russian Claims: Tactical success claimed in Udachne; repelled UA counterattacks in Kotlyne; fighting near Shevchenko; advancing in Lysovka (corroborated by RU map update).
UA Action: UA "Spartan" Brigade (NGU) reports ongoing effective defense and drone strikes.
Russian Claims: Advancing towards Bogatyr; fighting continues for Oleksiivka and near Volne Pole/Vesele/Rozlyv.
UA Activity:46th Separate Airmobile Brigade confirmed operating defensively near Kurakhove, following redeployment from Zaporizhzhia direction (UA DShV). Heavy fighting reported in Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre, Kurakhove defense.
Russian Claims: Capture of Lobkove; successes near Shcherbaky/Stepove; advancing near Kamyanske. Claimed destruction of 2 Starlink terminals and 1 repeater near Huliaipole. Claimed killing UA International Legion Sgt. Vyacheslav Kucheruk via FPV drone.
UA Capabilities: Zaporizhzhia OVA details significant March aid deliveries to front units: 2500+ drones, 100 EW systems, 61k+ remote mining components, vehicles, etc.
Huliaipole Axis:1 Russian attack repelled near Rivnopil (UGS).
RU Mine Use: RU sources claim destruction of UA "Kozak" armored vehicle by mine laid by RU 112th Rifle Regt.
UA Drone Strike: UA drone group "Hostri Kartuzy" claimed strike killing 5 RU soldiers transported by motorcycle.
III. Other Noteworthy Information
Hybrid Threats / Internal Security:
Report (The Guardian) alleges US-based neo-Nazi group "The Base" (leader Rinaldo Nazzaro residing in St. Petersburg) is paying individuals for terror attacks in Ukraine (targeting energy, military/police, government assets/personnel). Potential Russian special services operation suggested.
Russian Capabilities & Issues:
Personnel/Morale: Report via Butusov Plus details case of wounded RU Pvt. Litasov Khabib Alekseevich (b. 2006, 6th Tank Regt) pressured to return to unit prematurely, denied compensation, threatened with desertion charges. Highlights potential issues with medical care, command practices, and morale.
Training: Video shows RU Vostok group assault units training in rear areas.
Equipment: Persistent crowdfunding appeals indicate needs. Continued evidence of FPV drone use. Military Auto Inspection units active in occupied areas.
Internal Issues: Air Defense problems, social tensions (Bryansk border discontent claim), logistical challenges.
Information Environment:
Competing narratives on strike impacts (Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, RU energy infra). UA OGP investigating Kyiv attack as war crime. Zelenskyy emphasizes RU intent. UA AF clarifies ballistic missile impacts.
Russian sources claim hitting military targets, destruction of UA group (Chasiv Yar), advances (Lysovka/Guevo), high UA losses (Vodolahy, daily briefing). Continue atrocity narratives (Kursk/Bryansk borders).
RU MoD briefing claims hitting UA arty base/UAV production, defeating UA 'Omega' unit, inflated UA loss figures (daily/total).
International: Germany plans NATO exercise "Red Storm Bravo" (Sep 2025). RU sources report US CL650 Artemis recon flights over Balkans (Apr 4-5). Reports of potential major US Army personnel cuts (30k-90k) driven by budget/Asia-Pacific pivot (potential long-term impact).
IV. Updates Based on New Intelligence (Apr 6, 10:04 - 10:31 UTC)
Kursk/Sumy Border Area: TASS reports 731 civilians evacuated from Kursk border areas since March 12, indicating ongoing impact of hostilities on civilians.
Kyiv Oblast Attack Aftermath: Casualty update: 1 civilian injured (burns) in Fastivskyi district confirmed (RBC-Ukraina).
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure: RU MoD and multiple RU sources reiterate claims of 7 UA attacks in the past 24 hours targeting energy facilities in Crimea, Bryansk, Rostov, and Voronezh Oblasts, causing damage. RU MoD provided specific details on times/locations of alleged strikes on Apr 5-6. Operativnyi ZSU acknowledges RU claims while disputing their veracity/transparency.
Russian Overnight Strike Targets (Claim): RU MoD (via TASS, Colonelcassad, Dvama Majora) claims the Apr 5-6 overnight strikes specifically targeted a central Ukrainian artillery base and UAV production facilities.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction (Kurakhove): UA DShV confirms 46th Airmobile Brigade redeployed from Zaporizhzhia to the Kurakhove direction and is engaged in heavy fighting (Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre, Kurakhove defense), reinforcing its presence in this high-intensity sector.
Russian Personnel/Morale Issues: Report via Butusov Plus provides specific details on RU Pvt. Litasov Khabib Alekseevich (b. 2006, 6th Tank Regt, MU 93992), severely wounded Nov 2024, being pressured to return to unit with Ilizarov apparatus, denied full compensation, and threatened with desertion status. Illustrates potential severe issues with medical care, command pressure, and soldier welfare within RU forces.
Ukrainian Capabilities/Logistics (Zaporizhzhia Axis): Zaporizhzhia OVA details significant March deliveries to 86 units: 2500+ drones, 100 EW systems, 61k+ remote mining components, vehicles, etc., demonstrating substantial local support boosting capabilities on this front.
Russian MoD Daily Briefing Claims (via TASS): Includes standard claims: hitting alleged UA arty base/UAV production, defeating UA 'Omega' spec ops unit, hitting airfield infrastructure/repair sites, inflated UA loss figures (>65 Dnipro, >65 Belgorod, >230 West), downing 1 JDAM/100 UAVs.
Russian Training: Video evidence shows RU Vostok group assault units conducting tactical training in a rear area.
