Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 07:31 UTC

I. Executive Summary & Major Developments

• Overnight Air Assault Update: Significant combined air attack targeted Kyiv, Uman district (Cherkasy), Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi), Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv Oblasts.
  • Weapons Used (UA AF Confirmed): 9 Kh-101/55SM (launched from Tu-95MS over Saratov Oblast, RU), 8 Kalibr cruise missiles (Black Sea), 6 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (Bryansk Oblast, RU), 109 Shahed-type UAVs and decoy drones (launched from Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsk-Akhtarsk, Kursk RU; Crimea). Total 132 air targets detected.
  • Interceptions (UA AF Confirmed, as of 07:00 UTC): 53 targets intercepted: 6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M, 40x Shahed UAVs. 53 decoy drones reported as lost track without negative consequences.
  • Impacted Regions (UA AF Confirmed): Kyivshchyna, Sumshchyna, Kharkivshchyna, Khmelnychchyna, Cherkashchyna, Mykolaivshchyna.
• Kyiv Attack Aftermath (Updated): Combined drone/ballistic/cruise missile attack caused casualties and significant damage.
  • Casualties (KMVA Confirmed): 1 Civilian Killed, 3 Civilians Injured (2 hospitalized).
  • Damage (KMVA Confirmed):
    • Darnytskyi District: Fire in non-residential building; separate debris impact caused destruction/fire at another building; vehicles damaged/destroyed.
    • Obolonskyi District: Large fire (1500 sq m) at furniture workshop; partial collapse (3rd-5th floors) of a 5-story business center.
    • Solomianskyi District: Debris caused fires in open territory; warehouse facade caught fire (extinguished).
  • RU Perspective (Colonelcassad): Claims strikes hit production buildings and warehouses.
• Sumy Shahed Attack: Confirmed attack by 8 Shahed drones on civil/industrial infrastructure. No casualties reported. Visuals show significant fire damage. RU sources claim industrial enterprise destroyed. Ongoing Threat: RU Reconnaissance UAV active towards Sumy city (07:19 UTC).
• Mykolaiv Drone Attack: Debris from downed Shaheds caused damage. 4 civilians injured. 13 private houses, 1 vehicle damaged; fires in 2 houses extinguished. 7 Shaheds downed over Mykolaiv Oblast (UA Southern Forces).
• Kupyansk Residential Strike (Recent): KAB strike on 9th floor of high-rise building. 2 civilians injured. Fire spread (2nd-7th floors), structural damage.
• Kryvyi Rih Attack Update (Apr 4): Day of Mourning observed Apr 6. Updated casualties: 19 Killed (incl. 9 children), >70 Wounded.
• Ground Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, especially Eastern Front. 178 combat engagements reported (UGS, past 24h).
• Russian Offensive Operations & Claims (Recent):
  • Main Effort: Pokrovsk axis (75 attacks stopped - UGS). RU claims tactical success in Udachne, repelled UA counterattacks in Kotlyne, fighting near Shevchenko (WarGonzo). RU advancing in Lysovka (Rybar). Persistent RU equipment needs indicated by fundraising appeals (vehicle, satcom, drone detectors).
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity (26 attacks stopped - UGS). RU claims expanding control W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka (RVvoenkor) and from Ivanivka towards Katerynivka (Rybar).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity (20 attacks stopped - UGS). RU claims capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka) and Panteleimonivka; fighting for Tarasivka / Zelene Pole (Rybar).
  • Kursk/Sumy Border: High intensity (17 attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast - UGS). RU claims expanded control in Guevo, pushing towards Oleshnia; fighting reported inside Sumy Oblast (WarGonzo/Rybar).
  • Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka/Popovka; RU claims UA attempts to expand bridgehead fail but continue; RU notes UA reserve buildup (WarGonzo). RU claims near-blockade of Demidovka, hitting withdrawing UA forces (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Zaporizhzhia (Orikhiv/Huliaipole): RU claims capture of Lobkove, success near Shcherbaky/Stepove (Rybar); advancing near Kamenske; repelled UA counterattack near Lobkove (WarGonzo). 5 attacks repelled (UGS/SDF).
  • Novopavlivsk/South Donetsk: 8 attacks repelled (UGS). RU advancing towards Bogatyr (WarGonzo); fighting for Oleksiivka (N of Kostiantynopil); fighting near Volne Pole/Vesele/S of Rozlyv (Rybar). RU drone strikes claimed (Voin DV).
  • Kupyansk Axis: 6 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claim advance S. outskirts of Kamianka (RVvoenkor). RU claim T-72 destroyed near Podoly. RU expanding Oskil right bank bridgeheads (Rybar).
  • Kherson Axis: Increased RU FAB use reported (Rybar). 2 attacks repelled (UGS/SDF).
• Ukrainian Defensive & Counter-Operations:
  • Air Defense: Successfully intercepted 13 missiles and 40 Shaheds during overnight attack (UA AF). Engaged RU recon UAV near Sumy.
  • Ground Defense: Repelled numerous assaults across multiple axes, notably Pokrovsk (75) and Kursk border (17). 503rd Marine Battalion active on Pokrovsk axis, focusing on training personnel.
  • Strikes: FPV drone activity continues (e.g., Rubizh BTG, Sternenko). Drone-vs-drone interception claimed (Sternenko). Combined arms defense repelled RU assault (Rubizh BTG).
• Russian Capabilities & Issues:
  • Air Defense Vulnerabilities: RU sources (Rybar) mention issues with RU AD command, EW integration, accountability, and personnel compensation/morale impacting effectiveness.
  • Logistics: Persistent crowdfunding appeals for basic equipment (vehicles, comms batteries, body armor, helmets, drone detectors) across multiple fronts suggest ongoing supply shortfalls.
  • Information Environment: RU sources amplify narratives of "imminent peace talks," potentially impacting troop morale and civilian support (Rybar). Focus on framing strikes as targeting legitimate military/industrial targets.
• Weather: Recent snowfall in western/central oblasts may impact operations.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

• Overnight Combined Attack (Resolved - UA AF Data 07:00 UTC):
  • Detected: 132 total air targets (23 missiles, 109 UAVs/decoys).
    • Missiles Launched: 9x Kh-101/55SM, 8x Kalibr, 6x Iskander-M.
    • UAVs/Decoys Launched: 109 Shahed-type / other decoys.
  • Intercepted: 53 confirmed targets downed:
    • Missiles Intercepted: 13 total (6x Kh-101/55SM, 6x Kalibr, 1x Iskander-M).
    • UAVs Intercepted: 40 Shahed-type.
  • Impacts: Damage and casualties reported in Kyiv city/oblast, Sumy, Mykolaiv. Other impacted regions include Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy oblasts.
• Kyiv Attack Details:
  • Weapon Types: Confirmed Drones, Ballistic (Iskander-M type), Cruise missiles (Kh-101/Kalibr type).
  • Casualties: 1 KIA, 3 WIA (2 hospitalized) (KMVA).
  • Damage: Significant damage in Darnytskyi, Obolonskyi, Solomianskyi districts including partial business center collapse, fires at workshops/warehouses, damaged vehicles.
• Sumy Attack: 8 Shaheds damaged civil/industrial infrastructure; no casualties. Ongoing RU recon UAV presence near Sumy city (07:19 UTC).
• Mykolaiv Attack: Shahed debris caused fires, damaged 13 homes, 1 vehicle; 4 injured. 7 Shaheds downed (SDF South).
• Kupyansk Attack: KAB hit 9th floor of residential building, 2 injured, fire, damage.
• Ongoing Threats (as of 07:31 UTC):
  • Reconnaissance UAVs: RU recon drone active towards Sumy city (UA AF 07:19 UTC).
  • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): Persistent threat. Launches reported earlier towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts (UA AF 06:34 UTC). RU use remains high (163 used across Ukraine in prev. 24h - UGS).
  • Tactical Aviation: Activity reported earlier on Eastern and Northeastern directions (UA AF).
• Russian Air Defense Claims: RU MoD claimed 11 UA UAVs downed overnight (Apr 5-6) over Rostov (8), Kursk (2), Belgorod (1).

III. Frontline Situation Overview (Selected Axes - Based on UGS, WarGonzo, Rybar, Dnevnik Desantnika)

• Kursk/Sumy Border: High intensity. 17 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast (UGS). RU claim expanded control in Guevo, pushing towards Oleshnia; RU forces reportedly fighting within Sumy Oblast territory (WarGonzo/Rybar).
• Belgorod Border: Heavy fighting near Dmitrovka, Popovka (WarGonzo). RU claims near-blockade of Demidovka, targeting withdrawing UA forces; RU notes UA use of large drones ("Baba Yaga") in the area (Dnevnik Desantnika). RU notes UA reserve accumulation (WarGonzo).
• Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity ground combat. 1 attack repelled near Kamyanka (UGS).
• Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity. 6 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claims advance S. outskirts of Kamianka (RVvoenkor); claimed T-72 destruction near Podoly (Colonelcassad). Kupyansk city hit by KAB (high-rise, 2 injured). RU expanding Oskil right bank bridgeheads (Rybar).
• Lyman Axis: High Intensity. 26 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claims advances W of Balka Zhuravka/Novoliubivka (RVvoenkor); expanding control from Ivanivka towards Katerynivka (Rybar).
• Siversk Axis: Moderate intensity. 5 attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske (UGS).
• Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): Low-moderate intensity ground assaults. 3 attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka (UGS). Frontline static (Rybar).
• Toretsk Axis: High Intensity. 20 attacks repelled (UGS). RU claims capture of Aleksandropol (Rozivka) / Panteleimonivka; fighting for Tarasivka / Zelene Pole (Rybar).
• Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity. 75 attacks stopped (UGS). RU claims tactical success in Udachne, repelled UA counterattacks in Kotlyne, fighting near Shevchenko (WarGonzo). RU advancing in Lysovka (Rybar). UA 503rd Marines active in defense/training (UGS). RU fundraising indicates focus & needs (vehicle, satcom, drone detectors).
• Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis: Moderate intensity. 8 attacks repelled (UGS). RU advancing towards Bogatyr (WarGonzo); fighting for Oleksiivka (N of Kostiantynopil); fighting near Volne Pole/Vesele/S of Rozlyv (Rybar). RU 14th Spetsnaz drone strikes claimed (Voin DV).
• Huliaipole Axis: Low intensity ground combat. 1 attack repelled near Rivnopil (UGS & SDF).
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity. 4 attacks repelled (UGS & SDF). RU claims capture of Lobkove, success near Shcherbaky/Stepove (Rybar); advancing near Kamenske; repelled UA counterattack near Lobkove (WarGonzo). RU fundraising indicates equipment needs (vehicle, armor, helmets).
• Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity ground assaults. 2 attacks repelled (UGS & SDF). Increased RU FAB use reported (Rybar).

IV. Other Noteworthy Items

• Russian Logistics & Morale: Persistent crowdfunding appeals highlight potential shortages in basic equipment (comms batteries, vehicles, armor, drone detectors). RU source (Rybar) notes negative impact on morale from rumors of imminent peace/ceasefire deals, undermining support for the front. Mention of issues within RU AD forces (command, EW, accountability, pay).
• Ukrainian Logistics: Continued fundraising appeals indicate ongoing needs (e.g., vehicles, drones, thermals, Starlink for specific units).
• Information Environment: US Ambassador Brink explicitly attributed Kyiv attack to Russia. RU sources maintain narrative of hitting military targets, claim battlefield gains, and highlight internal issues (AD, morale). UA sources emphasize civilian impact, release official interception data, and showcase troop resilience.