Threat originates from Bryansk Oblast and Voronezh Oblast, Russia. Multiple launches confirmed (starting ~01:57 UTC, ongoing as of 02:21 UTC).
Ukrainian Air Defence (PPO) actively engaging multiple ballistic missiles over Kyiv (KMVA, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Klychko, 02:01 - 02:12 UTC).
Multiple explosions reported repeatedly in Kyiv (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko, Sternenko, Vanyok, 02:01 - 02:10 UTC), indicating interceptions and potential impacts.
Initial Impact Reports (Kyiv): Confirmed fires reported in Darnytskyi and Obolonskyi districts. Emergency services dispatched. Medical calls reported in both districts (KMVA, Klychko, 02:16 - 02:28 UTC). Information on damage and casualties is being clarified.
Air raid alerts remain active in Kyiv and other central/northern regions. Residents urged to stay in shelters.
Strategic Bomber Activity:PERSISTENT THREAT.
Approximately 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers remain airborne.
Pre-launch maneuvers confirmed from Volgograd Oblast area (~01:45 UTC).
Potential cruise missile launch likely occurred. Estimated arrival in Ukrainian airspace potentially between ~02:45 UTC and 06:00 UTC (some sources suggest closer to 05:50 UTC).
Guided Air Bombs (KABs):ACTIVE THREAT (Earlier). Threat persists for frontline oblasts.
Previous launches confirmed towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 01:02 UTC).
Previous launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 00:38 UTC).
Shahed Drone Attack:CONCLUDED. The large-scale attack targeting Kyiv and Central Ukraine ended ~01:15 UTC.
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Intense Russian air assault on Kyiv ongoing. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). The most intense ground fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions. ISW confirms significant Russian pressure on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and in Kursk Oblast.
Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
Primary Focus:Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources claim advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka. ISW reports RU advances near Pokrovsk.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): RU "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; fighting near Kotlyarivka; pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk (ISW reports RU advances), and Kursk/Sumy border (ISW reports RU advances).
Claimed Successes (RU MoD/TASS, Apr 6): "Zapad" Group claims destruction of >250 UA personnel, 5 Starlink stations, 33 UAV control points, artillery (incl. PzH 2000), and HIMARS rockets near Komarovka, Kondrashovka, Kamenka (likely Kupyansk/Lyman axis). Propaganda element; requires verification.
Information Warfare: Continued dissemination of narratives alleging Ukrainian atrocities (Kursk). Propaganda focusing on EW capabilities (Colonelcassad). TASS claim regarding "Zapad" Group successes (see above). RU sources claim AD success over Rostov Oblast against UAVs (Apr 6).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture:Currently focused on repelling intense ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. Maintaining active defense along frontlines, inflicting losses, and repelling most ground assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Monitoring ongoing KAB threat (Sumy/Kharkiv) and pending strategic bomber cruise missile threat.
Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
UA Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Kupyansk. Requires verification.
RU Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and in Kursk Oblast. Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
Significant Events (Past 24-72 hours):
Kyiv Attack (ONGOING): Major ballistic missile attack underway. Multiple waves, PPO active, explosions, confirmed initial reports of fires/medical calls in Darnytskyi and Obolonskyi districts.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia.
II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Reports/Claims)
Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). Previous KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast. ISW reports RU advances in Kursk Oblast. RU claims 500m advance near Basovka. UA strikes confirmed near Huyevo. Ongoing RU information operations allege UA atrocities.
Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity (1 attack repelled near Kamianka by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). Previous KAB launches towards Kharkiv Oblast. RU sources claim Tornado-S (cluster) strike on UA 107th TDF Brigade near Semenivka.
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity (6 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports UA advance near Kupyansk. RU MoD (TASS, Apr 6) claims "Zapad" Group inflicted >250 UA casualties and destroyed equipment (incl. Starlink, UAV CPs) near Komarovka, Kondrashovka, Kamenka. Requires verification.
Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske. DeepState reports RU advance near Novoliubivka. Potential area for claimed "Zapad" Group activity (TASS, Apr 6).
Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Toretsk. DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity (65 attempts by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Pokrovsk. RU claims (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka; advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity (4 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove; offensive near Kamyanske.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity (2 unsuccessful Russian attempts repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Updated)
Active Threats (as of 02:30 UTC, Apr 6):
Ballistic Missile Threat:HIGH/ACTIVE (INTENSE ATTACK). Multiple waves launched from Bryansk and Voronezh Oblasts targeting Kyiv. Air Defence heavily engaged over Kyiv. Multiple explosions reported. Confirmed initial impact reports (fires, medical calls) in Darnytskyi and Obolonskyi districts. Air alerts active. Residents urged to remain in shelters until all-clear. Threat persists.
Kyiv City:ONGOING MAJOR BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK. Air Defence heavily engaged. Multiple explosions reported (02:01 UTC onwards). Confirmed initial reports of fires and medical calls in Darnytskyi and Obolonskyi districts (KMVA, Klychko). Air alert active (re-activated ~01:57 UTC).
Previous Shahed Attack (Concluded): Air Defence engaged Shahed drones overnight.
Russian Air Defence Claims: RU sources claim successful UAV interceptions over Rostov Oblast (Apr 6).
Ukrainian Air Defence:Currently heavily engaged against intense multi-wave ballistic missile attack over Kyiv. Successfully repelled overnight Shahed drone attack. Monitoring ongoing KAB threats and pending strategic bomber cruise missile threat.
Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia (Apr 5). Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
IV. Naval Situation (Black Sea / Azov Sea / Mediterranean)
(No significant changes reported since Apr 3 assessment)
Black Sea: No Russian warships reported present (as of Apr 3).
Azov Sea: No Russian warships reported present (as of Apr 3).
Mediterranean Sea: 4 Russian warships reported present, including 3 Kalibr carriers (potential salvo: 26 missiles) (as of Apr 3).
