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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 02:02:04Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 01:32:03Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 02:01 UTC


I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments

  • Air Threat Profile (HIGHLY ACTIVE & DYNAMIC):
    • Ballistic Missile Attack (ONGOING): ACTIVE. Significant threat from Bryansk Oblast, Russia.
      • Air raid alerts declared in Kyiv and other central/northern regions (~01:57 UTC).
      • Multiple ballistic missiles reported launched towards Kyiv (~02:00 - 02:01 UTC).
      • Ukrainian Air Defence actively engaging targets over Kyiv (KMVA, 02:01 UTC).
      • Explosions reported in Kyiv (RBC-Ukraine, 02:01 UTC), indicating interceptions or impacts.
    • Strategic Bomber Activity: PERSISTENT THREAT.
      • Approximately 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers remain airborne.
      • Pre-launch maneuvers confirmed from Volgograd Oblast area (~01:45 UTC).
      • Potential cruise missile launch likely occurred. Estimated arrival in Ukrainian airspace potentially between ~02:45 UTC and 06:00 UTC, depending on launch confirmation and location.
    • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): ACTIVE THREAT. Launches by Russian tactical aviation continue.
      • Confirmed launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 01:02 UTC).
      • Previous launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 00:38 UTC). Threat persists.
    • Shahed Drone Attack: CONCLUDED. The large-scale attack targeting Kyiv and Central Ukraine ended ~01:15 UTC. Air raid alerts lifted prior to the ballistic missile threat activation.
    • Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previous waves remain resolved (no longer tracked ~00:07 UTC). Outcome unconfirmed.
  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions. ISW confirms significant Russian pressure on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
    • Primary Focus: Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources claim advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka. ISW reports RU advances near Pokrovsk. Russian Tornado-S MLRS (cluster munition) strike reported targeting UA 107th Territorial Defence Brigade near Semenivka, Kharkiv Oblast (RU source video, 00:42 UTC).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): RU "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka and positions south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; fighting near Kotlyarivka; pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
    • Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk (ISW reports RU advances), and Kursk/Sumy border (ISW reports RU advances).
    • Information Warfare: Russian sources continue disseminating narratives alleging Ukrainian atrocities against civilians in occupied areas of Kursk Oblast (e.g., Sudzha). Public safety announcements regarding mine/UXO dangers disseminated (potentially linked to International Mine Awareness Day), framing hazards within the context of the "SMO" and terrorism threats.
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, inflicting losses, and repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence currently engaged against ballistic missile attack on Kyiv. Monitoring KAB threat in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, and potential cruise missile threat from strategic bombers.
  • Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
    • UA Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Kupyansk. Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and in Kursk Oblast. Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
  • Significant Events (Past 24-72 hours):
    • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Confirmed 19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 68 WIA.
    • Mykolaiv Drone Attack (Apr 5): 3 civilians wounded.
    • Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Reports/Claims)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). KABs launched towards Sumy Oblast (00:38 UTC). ISW reports RU advances in Kursk Oblast. RU claims 500m advance near Basovka. UA strikes confirmed near Huyevo. Ongoing RU information operations allege UA atrocities.
  • Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity (1 attack repelled near Kamianka by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). KABs launched towards Kharkiv Oblast (01:02 UTC). RU sources claim Tornado-S (cluster) strike on UA 107th TDF Brigade near Semenivka.
  • Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity (6 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports UA advance near Kupyansk.
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske. DeepState reports RU advance near Novoliubivka.
  • Siversk Axis: Moderate intensity (3 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Lower intensity (3 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Toretsk. DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity (65 attempts by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Pokrovsk. RU claims (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka; advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: Moderate intensity (7 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity (4 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove; offensive near Kamyanske.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity (2 unsuccessful Russian attempts repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Updated)

  • Active Threats (as of 02:01 UTC, Apr 6):
    • Ballistic Missile Threat: HIGH/ACTIVE. Threat originating from Bryansk Oblast. Air Defence engaged over Kyiv. Explosions reported. Air alerts active in Kyiv and other regions.
    • Strategic Aviation Threat: HIGH. ~4 Tu-95MS bombers airborne. Pre-launch maneuvers reported. Potential cruise missile threat estimated arrival ~02:45 - 06:00 UTC.
    • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): ACTIVE THREAT. Launches confirmed towards Kharkiv Oblast (01:02 UTC) and previously towards Sumy Oblast (00:38 UTC).
  • Resolved Threats (Recent):
    • Shahed UAVs: Attack CONCLUDED (~01:15 UTC).
    • Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previous waves remain resolved (~00:07 UTC).
  • Recent Impacts / Engagements:
    • Kyiv City: ACTIVE BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK. Air Defence engaged. Explosions reported (02:01 UTC). Air alert active (re-activated ~01:57 UTC).
    • Previous Shahed Attack (Concluded): Air Defence engaged Shahed drones overnight. Air alert ended 01:22 UTC, re-activated for ballistic threat.
  • Ukrainian Air Defence: Currently engaging ballistic missile threat over Kyiv. Successfully repelled overnight Shahed drone attack. Monitoring ongoing KAB threats in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and pending strategic bomber cruise missile threat.
  • Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia (Apr 5). Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
Previous (2025-04-06 01:32:03Z)

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