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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 01:32:03Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 01:02:00Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 01:30 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments

  • Air Threat Profile (Evolving):
    • Shahed Drone Attack: CONCLUDED. The large-scale attack targeting Kyiv and Central Ukraine has ended. UAVs are no longer tracked ("minus" status reported ~01:15 UTC). Air raid alerts have been cancelled in Kyiv (01:22 UTC) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (01:22 UTC).
    • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): ACTIVE THREAT. Launches by Russian tactical aviation continue.
      • Confirmed launches towards Kharkiv Oblast (UA Air Force, 01:02 UTC).
      • Previous launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 00:38 UTC). Threat persists.
    • Strategic Bomber Activity: PERSISTENT THREAT. Approximately 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers remain airborne (down from 9 reported earlier; source: Tsaplienko preliminary info). Potential cruise missile launch window remains estimated around 05:00 UTC. Estimated arrival in Ukrainian airspace: dependent on launch location and time, potentially 05:30 - 06:30 UTC or later.
    • Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previous waves (~8-9 missiles) remain resolved ("minus" status reported ~00:07 UTC). Outcome (impact/interception) unconfirmed.
  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions. ISW confirms significant Russian pressure on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
    • Primary Focus: Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources claim advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka. ISW reports RU advances near Pokrovsk. Russian Tornado-S MLRS (cluster munition) strike reported targeting UA 107th Territorial Defence Brigade near Semenivka, Kharkiv Oblast (RU source video, 00:42 UTC).
    • Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): RU "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka and positions south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; fighting near Kotlyarivka; pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
    • Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk (ISW reports RU advances), and Kursk/Sumy border (ISW reports RU advances).
    • Information Warfare: Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 00:03 UTC Apr 6) continue disseminating narratives alleging Ukrainian atrocities against civilians in occupied areas of Kursk Oblast (e.g., Sudzha). RU sources (Colonelcassad, 01:03 UTC Apr 6) also disseminating public safety announcements regarding mine/UXO dangers, potentially linked to International Mine Awareness Day (Apr 4), highlighting hazards from mines, UXO, and drone debris in border/occupied areas and across Russia, framing it within the context of the "SMO" and terrorism threats.
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, inflicting losses, and repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence successfully repelled the overnight Shahed attack. Monitoring KAB threat in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
    • UA Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Kupyansk. Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and in Kursk Oblast. Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
  • Significant Events (Past 24-72 hours):
    • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Confirmed 19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 68 WIA.
    • Mykolaiv Drone Attack (Apr 5): 3 civilians wounded.
    • Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Reports/Claims)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). KABs launched towards Sumy Oblast (00:38 UTC). ISW reports RU advances in Kursk Oblast. RU claims 500m advance near Basovka. UA strikes confirmed near Huyevo. Ongoing RU information operations allege UA atrocities.
  • Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity (1 attack repelled near Kamianka by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). KABs launched towards Kharkiv Oblast (01:02 UTC). RU sources claim Tornado-S (cluster) strike on UA 107th TDF Brigade near Semenivka.
  • Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity (6 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports UA advance near Kupyansk.
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske. DeepState reports RU advance near Novoliubivka.
  • Siversk Axis: Moderate intensity (3 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Lower intensity (3 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Toretsk. DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity (65 attempts by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Pokrovsk. RU claims (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka; advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: Moderate intensity (7 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity (4 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove; offensive near Kamyanske. Air alert ended (01:22 UTC).
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity (2 unsuccessful Russian attempts repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Updated)

  • Active Threats (as of 01:30 UTC, Apr 6):
    • Strategic Aviation Threat: HIGH. ~4 Tu-95MS bombers airborne (preliminary report). Potential cruise missile launch window ~05:00 UTC, potential arrival ~05:30-06:30+ UTC.
    • Guided Air Bombs (KABs): ACTIVE THREAT. Launches confirmed towards Kharkiv Oblast (01:02 UTC) and previously towards Sumy Oblast (00:38 UTC).
  • Resolved Threats (Recent):
    • Shahed UAVs: Attack CONCLUDED. UAVs no longer tracked (01:15 UTC). Air alerts lifted in Kyiv (01:22 UTC) and Zaporizhzhia (01:22 UTC).
    • Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previous waves remain resolved (no longer tracked as of ~00:07 UTC).
  • Recent Impacts / Engagements (During Shahed Attack):
    • Kyiv City: Air Defence actively engaged Shahed drones. Explosions reported (00:49 UTC). Air alert ended (01:22 UTC).
    • Kyiv Oblast: Active drone threats were reported near Irpin, Bila Tserkva areas. Air alert ended.
    • Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): Previous drone activity reported nearby. Threat likely resolved with overall Shahed attack conclusion.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: Explosions reported earlier during previous Kalibr missile transit.
  • Ukrainian Air Defence: Successfully repelled Shahed drone attack. Monitoring ongoing KAB threats in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts and strategic bomber activity.
  • Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia (Apr 5). Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
Previous (2025-04-06 01:02:00Z)

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