Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 01:00 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments
Multi-Layered Air Attack Ongoing (Evolving Threat Profile):
Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previous waves (~8-9 missiles) are no longer tracked in Ukrainian airspace ("minus" status reported ~00:07 UTC). Outcome (impact/interception) unconfirmed.
Strategic Bomber Activity: Threat persists. Approximately 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers remain airborne (down from 9 reported earlier; source: Tsaplienko preliminary info). Potential cruise missile launch window now estimated closer to 05:00 UTC. Estimated arrival in Ukrainian airspace: dependent on launch location and time, potentially 05:30 - 06:30 UTC or later.
Shahed Drone Attack (Ongoing, Focus Kyiv Region & Center): Large-scale attack continues with evolving vectors (as of ~00:42 UTC):
Kyiv City/Oblast:HIGH THREAT. Air Defence actively engaging targets over Kyiv (KMVA, 00:48 UTC). Explosions heard (RBC, 00:49 UTC). Residents urged to remain in shelters. Specific UAVs tracked:
1 UAV near Irpin, potentially circling back towards Irpin.
1 UAV heading towards/through Bila Tserkva.
1 UAV West of Pereyaslav, heading towards Bila Tserkva district.
Uman Area (Cherkasy Oblast): Threat persists. 1 UAV reported circling near Uman (down from ~2 earlier).
Guided Air Bombs (KABs):Active Threat. Launches reported by RU tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast (UA Air Force, 00:38 UTC).
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions. ISW reports significant Russian pressure on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and in Kursk Oblast.
Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
Primary Focus:Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources claim advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka. ISW reports RU advances near Pokrovsk. Russian Tornado-S MLRS (cluster munition) strike reported targeting UA 107th Territorial Defence Brigade near Semenivka, Kharkiv Oblast (RU source video, 00:42 UTC).
Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): RU "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka and positions south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; fighting near Kotlyarivka; pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk (ISW reports RU advances), and Kursk/Sumy border (ISW reports RU advances).
Information Warfare: Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 00:03 UTC Apr 6) continue disseminating narratives alleging Ukrainian atrocities against civilians in occupied areas of Kursk Oblast (e.g., Sudzha).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, inflicting losses, and repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence actively engaging ongoing aerial threats (Shaheds over Kyiv, potentially KABs over Sumy).
Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
UA Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Kupyansk. Requires verification.
RU Advance Reported (ISW via RBC, Apr 6): Near Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and in Kursk Oblast. Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia.
II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Reports/Claims)
Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). KABs launched towards Sumy Oblast (00:38 UTC). ISW reports RU advances in Kursk Oblast. RU claims 500m advance near Basovka. UA strikes confirmed near Huyevo. Ongoing RU information operations allege UA atrocities.
Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity (1 attack repelled near Kamianka by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources claim Tornado-S (cluster) strike on UA 107th TDF Brigade near Semenivka.
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity (6 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports UA advance near Kupyansk.
Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske. DeepState reports RU advance near Novoliubivka.
Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Toretsk. DeepState previously reported RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity (65 attempts by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). ISW reports RU advance near Pokrovsk. RU claims (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka; advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist.
Shahed UAVs: Ongoing attack, focus shifting towards Kyiv region & Center.
Kyiv City/Oblast:HIGH THREAT. Air Defence actively working. UAVs reported near Irpin, approaching/over Bila Tserkva, and heading towards Bila Tserkva district from Pereyaslav area.
Guided Air Bombs (KABs):Active Threat. Launches confirmed towards Sumy Oblast.
Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previous waves no longer tracked.
Recent Impacts / Engagements (Ongoing):
Kyiv City:Active Air Defence engagement against Shahed drones. Explosions reported.
Kyiv Oblast: Active drone threats (Irpin, Bila Tserkva areas).
Sumy Oblast:KABs launched towards the region.
Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): Air Defence engaged ~2 Shahed drones earlier; 1 UAV still reported active nearby.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Explosions reported earlier during previous Kalibr missile transit.
Ukrainian Air Defence: Actively engaging ongoing Shahed attack over Kyiv. Alert system active across threatened regions. Monitoring KAB threat in Sumy.
Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia (Apr 5). Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
