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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-06 00:32:02Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-06 00:02:14Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 00:30 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments

  • Multi-Layered Air Attack Ongoing (Shift in Threat Profile):
    • Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Previous Waves): The ~8-9 Kalibr missiles previously tracked (Waves 1 & 2, launched from Black Sea / Kherson area) are no longer reported as actively transiting Ukrainian airspace ("minus" status reported ~00:03 - 00:07 UTC). Potential impacts or successful interceptions are unconfirmed, but they are not currently posing an immediate tracked threat. Air Defence engagement was previously confirmed in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, with explosions also reported in Vinnytsia Oblast.
    • Strategic Bomber Activity: Threat persists. Approximately 9 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers remain airborne (reported airborne ~23:33 UTC from Olenya airbase). Potential movement towards Caspian Sea launch zones continues. Anticipated cruise missile launch window: 03:50 - 06:00 UTC. Estimated arrival in Ukrainian airspace: 04:20 - 07:00 UTC, depending on launch location.
    • Ongoing Shahed Drone Attack (Focus shifting towards Kyiv): Large-scale attack continues with evolving vectors (as of ~00:30 UTC):
      • Kyiv Area: Increasing threat. UAVs reported heading towards Kyiv city (alert issued 00:28 UTC). Specific groups tracked:
        • 1 UAV past Vasylkiv, heading towards Irpin (NW of Kyiv).
        • 1 UAV past Brovary, heading towards Boryspil (SE of Kyiv).
        • UAVs previously reported near Vasylkiv (alert issued 00:08 UTC) and approaching Brovary/Vyshhorod (~00:03 UTC).
      • Uman Area (Cherkasy Oblast): Threat persists, but potentially reduced UAV concentration. ~2 UAVs reported actively circling near Uman (~00:24 UTC), engaging Air Defence (down from ~5 reported earlier).
      • Cherkasy Area: 1 UAV previously reported NW of Cherkasy city, heading SW (~00:03 UTC).
      • Earlier (Apr 5 night): Explosions heard in Sumy city; AD activity reported in Kyiv Oblast.
  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions.
  • Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
    • Primary Focus: Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources continue claims of advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka. RU sources shared archive footage (Apr 5, 23:33 UTC) claiming a fiber-optic drone strike on a UA tank on this axis.
    • Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): Russian "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka and positions south; conducting strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; engaging in heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka (reportedly reinforced by UA forces with up to a battalion); pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka and pressure south of it. These claims require verification.
    • Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border.
    • Information Warfare: Russian sources (Colonelcassad, 00:03 UTC Apr 6) continue disseminating narratives alleging Ukrainian atrocities against civilians in occupied areas of Kursk Oblast (e.g., Sudzha), utilizing interviews presented as evidence for an "international tribunal".
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, inflicting losses, and repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence actively engaging ongoing aerial threats across multiple oblasts, particularly Shahed drones near Kyiv and Uman.
  • Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
    • RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
    • RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
    • Other previous RU claims persist (Basovka, Lyman bridgehead, Udachne, Solone, Kamyanske etc.) Require verification.
  • Significant Events (Past 24-72 hours):
    • Kryvyi Rih Attack Aftermath (Apr 4): Confirmed 19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 68 WIA. Ukrainian sources circulating memorials for the children killed (Confirmed Apr 5 evening). Attack involved Iskander-M (cluster munition) followed by Shahed drones.
    • Mykolaiv Drone Attack (Apr 5): 3 civilians wounded, residential damage.
    • Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia.

II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Claims)

  • Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims 500m advance near Basovka. UA strikes confirmed near Huyevo. Ongoing RU information operations allege UA atrocities in the area.
  • Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity (1 attack repelled near Kamianka by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources continue propaganda featuring commanders operating in the area (e.g., "Glukhar," Apr 5).
  • Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity (6 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske. DeepState reports RU advance near Novoliubivka.
  • Siversk Axis: Moderate intensity (3 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Lower intensity (3 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
  • Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). DeepState reports RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Highest Intensity (65 attempts by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIMS (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive operations towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka (UA reportedly reinforced); advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka; pressure S of Bohdanivka. Requires verification. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist. RU sources shared archive footage (Apr 5, 23:33 UTC) claiming a fiber-optic drone strike on a UA tank on this axis.
  • Novopavlivsk Axis: Moderate intensity (7 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). High density UA FPV drone usage noted.
  • Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity (4 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove; offensive near Kamyanske.
  • Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity (2 unsuccessful Russian attempts repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).

III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Ongoing)

  • Active Threats (as of 00:30 UTC, Apr 6):
    • Kalibr Cruise Missiles: Previously tracked waves (~8-9 missiles total) are no longer reported as active threats in transit ("minus" status). Threat level lowered for these specific missiles, pending confirmation of impact/interception.
    • Strategic Aviation Threat: HIGH. ~9 Tu-95MS bombers airborne, potentially heading towards Caspian Sea launch areas. Potential cruise missile launch window 03:50-06:00 UTC, arrival 04:20-07:00 UTC.
    • Shahed UAVs: Ongoing attack, focus shifting towards Kyiv region.
      • Kyiv City: Threat HIGH. UAVs reported approaching the city (alert 00:28 UTC).
      • Kyiv Oblast: Threat HIGH. Groups moving towards Irpin (from Vasylkiv) and Boryspil (from Brovary). Alerts active for Vasylkiv.
      • Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): Threat persists. ~2 UAVs engaging AD.
  • Russian Strike Totals (Previous 24h - UGS Apr 5, 19:00 UTC): 73 aviation strikes (106 KABs), 844 kamikaze drones, >4,100 shelling attacks.
  • Recent Impacts / Engagements (Apr 5 Night - Ongoing):
    • Kyiv City: Active drone threat. Air Defence engagement previously confirmed for earlier missile wave, explosions reported.
    • Kyiv Oblast: Active drone threats (Irpin, Boryspil approaches, Vasylkiv area). Air Defence engagement confirmed by KОВА for earlier missile wave.
    • Vinnytsia Oblast: Explosions reported earlier during missile transit.
    • Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): Air Defence actively engaging ~2 Shahed drones.
    • Mykolaiv (Apr 5 day): 3 WIA from drone attack on residential area.
    • Sumy (Apr 5 earlier): Explosions reported during Shahed attack.
  • Ukrainian Air Defence: Actively engaging ongoing Shahed attack (Kyiv approaches, Vasylkiv, Uman). Successfully tracked and potentially engaged inbound Kalibr missiles (status now "minus"). Alert system active across threatened regions.
  • Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia (Apr 5). Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
Previous (2025-04-06 00:02:14Z)

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