Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 6, 2025, 00:00 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments
Multi-Layered Air Attack Underway & Intensifying:
Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 1): Approximately 4-5 Kalibr missiles (initial launch ~22:39 UTC, Black Sea) actively transiting Ukrainian airspace. Complex trajectory observed: Kherson -> Mykolaiv -> Kirovohrad -> Cherkasy -> Vinnytsia/Kyiv Oblasts -> Khmelnytskyi/Zhytomyr Oblasts -> Korosten area -> Zhytomyr area -> Bila Tserkva area -> Cherkasy Oblast -> currently transiting into Vinnytsia Oblast (as of 23:59 UTC). Missile threat warnings active throughout trajectory, including for Starokostiantyniv, Zhytomyr, Korosten, Bila Tserkva, Uman. Air Defence engagement confirmed in Kyiv (explosions reported) and Kyiv Oblast; explosions also reported in Vinnytsia Oblast.
Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 2 - CONFIRMED): Approximately 4 additional Kalibr missiles launched from the Berislavskyi district (Kherson Oblast, Black Sea adjacent) around 23:36 UTC. Trajectory: Kherson -> Mykolaiv -> Kirovohrad -> Cherkasy Oblast (Uman area) -> currently transiting into Vinnytsia Oblast (as of 23:59 UTC).
Strategic Bomber Activity: Increased threat continues. Approximately 9 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers airborne from Olenya airbase. Unconfirmed reports indicate they are proceeding towards potential launch zones near the Caspian Sea. Potential cruise missile launches anticipated between 03:50 - 06:00 UTC, with missile arrival in Ukrainian airspace estimated between 04:20 - 07:00 UTC depending on launch zone.
Ongoing Shahed Drone Attack: Large-scale attack continues. As of ~23:59 UTC, UAV groups reported:
Concentrated near Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): ~5 UAVs actively circling, engaging Air Defence. Threat remains high for the city.
One UAV approaching Cherkasy city.
Activity reduced or shifted from earlier reported areas (Vasylkiv, Obukhiv, N of Kyiv).
Earlier: Explosions heard in Sumy city; AD activity reported in Kyiv Oblast.
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions.
Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
Primary Focus:Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU sources continue claims of advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka. RU sources shared archive footage (Apr 5, 23:33 UTC) claiming a fiber-optic drone strike on a UA tank on this axis.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): Russian "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka and positions south; conducting strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; engaging in heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka (reportedly reinforced by UA forces with up to a battalion); pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka and pressure south of it. These claims require verification.
Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, inflicting losses, and repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence actively engaging ongoing aerial threats across multiple oblasts.
Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). DeepState reports RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity (65 attempts by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIMS (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive operations towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka (UA reportedly reinforced); advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka; pressure S of Bohdanivka. Requires verification. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist. RU sources shared archive footage (Apr 5, 23:33 UTC) claiming a fiber-optic drone strike on a UA tank on this axis.
Novopavlivsk Axis: Moderate intensity (7 attacks by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). High density UA FPV drone usage noted.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity (4 attacks repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC). RU claims repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove; offensive near Kamyanske.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity (2 unsuccessful Russian attempts repelled by Apr 5, 19:00 UTC).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Ongoing)
Active Threats (as of 00:00 UTC, Apr 6):
Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 1):~4-5 missiles detected transiting into Vinnytsia Oblast from Cherkasy Oblast. Trajectory has been complex, covering multiple central and western oblasts. Target likely includes western airfields (e.g., Starokostiantyniv) or other critical infrastructure.
Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 2):~4 missiles detected transiting into Vinnytsia Oblast from Cherkasy Oblast (passed Uman).
Recent Impacts / Engagements (Apr 5 Night - Ongoing):
Kyiv: Air Defence engagement confirmed, explosions reported.
Kyiv Oblast: Air Defence engagement confirmed by KОВА.
Vinnytsia Oblast: Explosions reported.
Uman (Cherkasy Oblast): Air Defence actively engaging ~5 Shahed drones. City also threatened by inbound cruise missiles.
Mykolaiv (Apr 5 day): 3 WIA from drone attack on residential area.
Sumy (Apr 5 earlier): Explosions reported during Shahed attack.
Ukrainian Air Defence: Actively engaging ongoing Shahed attack (Uman, Cherkasy area). Tracking and engaging inbound Kalibr missiles (Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast confirmed). Alert system active across threatened regions (Multiple warnings issued for Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, and specific cities like Starokostiantyniv, Uman, Zhytomyr, Korosten, Bila Tserkva).
Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia (Apr 5). Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
