Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 23:30 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments
Multi-Layered Air Attack Underway & Intensifying:
Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 1): Approximately 4-5 Kalibr missiles actively transiting Ukrainian airspace. Launched from the Black Sea (~22:39 UTC). Trajectory: Kherson -> Mykolaiv -> Kirovohrad -> Cherkasy -> Vinnytsia/Kyiv Oblasts -> currently towards Khmelnytskyi/Zhytomyr Oblasts. Missile threat warnings active, specifically for Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast). Air Defence engagement confirmed in Kyiv; explosions reported in Kyiv and Vinnytsia Oblast.
Anticipated Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 2): Reports indicate potential for approximately 5 additional Kalibr missiles launched from the Cape Myskhako area (Black Sea), expected arrival in Ukrainian airspace before 02:40 UTC.
Strategic Bomber Activity: Increased threat. Approximately 9 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers now airborne (up from 4) from Olenya airbase, proceeding towards potential launch zones. Potential cruise missile launches anticipated between 03:50 - 06:00 UTC, with missile arrival in Ukrainian airspace estimated between 04:20 - 07:00 UTC depending on launch zone (Engels/Caspian).
Ongoing Shahed Drone Attack: Large-scale attack continues. As of ~23:30 UTC, UAV groups reported:
Near Uman (Cherkasy Oblast) - engaging Air Defence.
Near Vasylkiv (Kyiv Oblast).
Near Obukhiv (Kyiv Oblast).
North of Kyiv, heading west.
Transiting from Poltava into Cherkasy Oblast.
Earlier: Explosions heard in Sumy city; AD activity reported in Kyiv Oblast.
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions.
Russian Offensive Operations (Focus & Claims):
Primary Focus:Pokrovsk axis remains the main effort (65 attacks by 19:00 UTC). RU sources continue claims of advances within Udachne, near Kotlyno, Zverevo, NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, and attacks towards Novoserhiivka.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction Claims (RU Sources, Apr 5 late): Russian "Center" Group units claim offensive actions towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border: attacking Novoolexandrivka and positions south; conducting strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; engaging in heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka (reportedly reinforced by UA forces with up to a battalion); pushing west from Troitske towards Orikhove; claiming near-full control of Bohdanivka and pressure south of it. These claims require verification.
Other Active Axes: Significant pressure continues on Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk/Sumy border.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, inflicting losses, and repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes, counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence actively engaging ongoing aerial threats.
Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (RU Sources, Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Dir.): Near Novoolexandrivka, west of Troitske, near Bohdanivka. Requires verification.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia.
Technological Developments: Increased use of FPV drones by both sides noted. Reports of UA using Helsing HF-1 AI-drones and AASM Hammer bombs continue. RU propaganda highlights return of "BOBR" FPV unit.
II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Claims)
Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by 19:00 UTC). RU claims 500m advance near Basovka. UA strikes confirmed near Huyevo.
Kharkiv Axis: Low intensity (1 attack repelled near Kamianka by 19:00 UTC). RU sources continue propaganda featuring commanders operating in the area (e.g., "Glukhar").
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate intensity (6 attacks repelled by 19:00 UTC).
Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks by 19:00 UTC). RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske. DeepState reports RU advance near Novoliubivka.
Siversk Axis: Moderate intensity (3 attacks repelled by 19:00 UTC).
Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults by 19:00 UTC). DeepState reports RU advance within Toretsk city. RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity (65 attempts by 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIMS (Apr 5 late - Dnipropetrovsk Direction): Offensive operations towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; attacks on Novoolexandrivka & south; strikes NW of Novoserhiivka; heavy fighting near Kotlyarivka (UA reportedly reinforced); advance W of Troitske towards Orikhove; near control of Bohdanivka; pressure S of Bohdanivka. Requires verification. Previous RU claims on Udachne, Zverevo, Pishchane, Shevchenko, Solone persist.
Novopavlivsk Axis: Moderate intensity (7 attacks by 19:00 UTC). High density UA FPV drone usage noted.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Moderate intensity (4 attacks repelled by 19:00 UTC). RU claims repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove; offensive near Kamyanske.
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson - Left Bank): Low intensity (2 unsuccessful Russian attempts repelled by 19:00 UTC).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity (Ongoing)
Active Threats (as of 23:30 UTC):
Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 1):~4 missiles detected transiting NW through Vinnytsia Oblast, heading towards Khmelnytskyi/Zhytomyr Oblasts. Target likely includes Starokostiantyniv. Air Defence active (Kyiv). Explosions reported (Kyiv, Vinnytsia Oblast).
Anticipated Kalibr Cruise Missiles (Wave 2): Reports suggest ~5 more missiles launched, ETA before 02:40 UTC.
Mykolaiv (Apr 5): 3 WIA from drone attack on residential area.
Sumy (Apr 5): Explosions reported earlier during Shahed attack.
Ukrainian Air Defence: Actively engaging ongoing Shahed attack (Uman, Kyiv region). Tracking and engaging inbound Kalibr missiles. Alert system active across threatened regions.
Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia. Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
