Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 5, 2025, 23:00 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Major Developments
Multi-Layered Air Attack Underway:
Kalibr Cruise Missile Launch Detected: Approximately 5 Kalibr missiles launched from the Black Sea (reported ~22:39 UTC).
Active Kalibr Threat: Missiles currently transiting Kirovohrad Oblast after crossing Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts (NW course). Threat warnings active for Southern, Central, and Kyiv regions.
Strategic Bomber Activity: Approximately 4 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers airborne from Olenya airbase (reported ~22:42 UTC). Potential cruise missile launches anticipated between 03:50 - 06:00 UTC, with missile arrival in Ukrainian airspace estimated between 04:20 - 07:00 UTC depending on launch zone (Engels/Caspian).
Ongoing Shahed Drone Attack: Large-scale attack continues across multiple regions. As of ~23:00 UTC, UAV groups reported near Uman, Cherkasy/Kyiv border intersection, Vasylkiv, Boryspil, transiting into Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and west of Konotop (Sumy Oblast). Active Air Defence engagement reported earlier in Kyiv Oblast; explosions heard in Sumy city.
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. UGS previously reported 152 combat engagements (as of 19:00 UTC). The most intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kursk directions.
Russian Offensive Operations:
Primary Focus:Pokrovsk axis continues to see the highest concentration of attacks (65 reported by 19:00 UTC). Russian sources claim advances within Udachne towards the center/Shaft No.1, ongoing attacks in Zverevo and NE of Pishchane, control over Shevchenko, ejecting Ukrainian forces from W outskirts of Solone and attacking towards Novoserhiivka. Intense pressure also claimed near Kotlyno, with alleged disruption of a Ukrainian counter-attack concentration east of the settlement. These claims require verification.
Other Active Axes: Significant offensive pressure continues on Lyman (20 attacks by 19:00 UTC, RU claims expanding bridgehead near Makiivka/Ivanivka, fighting near Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacks towards Torske), Toretsk (18 attacks by 19:00 UTC, DeepState reports RU advance within Toretsk city, RU claims control over Rozivka/Aleksandropol), and Kursk/Sumy border (17 engagements by 19:00 UTC, RU claims 500m advance within Basovka residential area).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture: Maintaining active defense, repelling most assaults. Operations heavily utilize drone reconnaissance, FPV strikes (high density noted on Novopavlivsk axis, increased usage claimed by RU on Soledar-Bakhmut front), counter-battery fire, remote mining, and fortifications. Air Defence actively engaging incoming aerial threats.
Territorial Changes & Claims (Recent):
RU Advance Claimed (DeepState, Apr 5): Near Kamianka (Axis unclear), near Novoliubivka (Lyman Axis), and within Toretsk city (Toretsk Axis). Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (Kursk/Sumy): 500m advance within residential area east of Loknya River near Basovka (Sudzha area). Continued claims over Huyevo/Basovka. Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (Lyman): Near Novoliubivka, Nove. Claims of expanding bridgehead, attacking height near Makiivka/Ivanivka. Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (Pokrovsk): Within Udachne, repelled UA counter-attack near Kotlyno, ejected UA forces from W outskirts of Solone, attacking towards Novoserhiivka. Control maintained over Shevchenko. Requires verification.
RU Advance Claimed (Orikhiv): Repelled UA counter-attack near Lobkove. Ongoing offensive near Kamyanske with claimed advance/attacks on SE outskirts. Requires verification.
Kryvyi Rih Combined Attack (Apr 4): Aftermath continues to be assessed. Confirmed 19 civilians KIA (incl. 9 children), 68 WIA. Attack involved Iskander-M (cluster munition) followed by Shahed drones.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes (Apr 4-5): Confirmed hits on "Optical Fiber Systems" plant in Saransk (Mordovia) and "Promsintez" explosives plant in Chapayevsk (Samara Oblast), Russia. Attempted follow-up UAV strike on Saransk plant reported failed (Apr 5 morning).
Technological Developments:
UA: Confirmed use of German Helsing HF-1 AI-drones. MiG-29s employing AASM Hammer bombs (Kursk Oblast). High density/increased use of FPV drones. Fiber-optic drones (20km range) operational. New EW systems deployed.
RU: Use of armed UGVs (Pokrovsk). Claimed use of fiber-optic FPV drones (Lyman, Kursk border). ISR-Strike coordination emphasized (e.g., 238th Arty Bde + 346th Spetsnaz UAVs destroying UA mortar). Installation of anti-drone nets (Shebekino, Belgorod). "BOBR" FPV unit claims return to activity (propaganda video released).
II. Key Frontline Developments (Highlights & Recent Claims)
Kursk/Sumy Border Area: High intensity (17 engagements by 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIM: 500m advance in residential area near Basovka. UA MiG-29 (AASM Hammer) & Helsing HF-1 AI drone strikes confirmed near Huyevo.
Kharkiv Axis: 1 attack repelled near Kamianka (UGS 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIM (DeepState): Advance near Kamianka.
Lyman Axis: High intensity (20 attacks, 5 ongoing at 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIM (DeepState): Advance near Novoliubivka. RU CLAIM (Narrative): Expanding bridgehead (Makiivka/Ivanivka), fighting outskirts Nove, Katerynivka, Kolodezi, attacking Torske.
Siversk Axis: 3 attacks repelled (UGS 19:00 UTC).
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): 3 attacks repelled (UGS 19:00 UTC). RU Assessment: Significant (~3x) increase in UA FPV drone usage on Soledar-Bakhmut front, potentially indicating prep for localized actions.
Toretsk Axis: High intensity (18 assaults, 3 ongoing at 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIM (DeepState): Advance within Toretsk city. RU CLAIM (Map): Control over Rozivka (Aleksandropol) visualized.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity (65 attempts, 11 ongoing at 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIMS: Pressure near Udachne - Kotlyno; fighting in Udachne residential area advancing towards center/Shaft No.1; meeting engagements NW outskirts Kotlyno; foiled UA counter-attack E of Kotlyno; attacks in Zverevo & NE Pishchane; Shevchenko RU-controlled; ejected UA from W outskirts Solone, attacking Novoserhiivka. Claims require verification.
Novopavlivsk Axis: 7 attacks, 4 ongoing (UGS 19:00 UTC). High density UA FPV drone usage noted.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 4 attacks repelled (UGS 19:00 UTC). RU CLAIM: Repelled UA armored counter-attack near Lobkove. Ongoing offensive near Kamyanske, claim advance/attacks on SE outskirts.
Kalibr Cruise Missiles:~4 missiles detected transiting Kirovohrad Oblast (moving NW). Originated from Black Sea launch. Air alerts widespread, including Kyiv.
Shahed UAVs: Ongoing attack. Groups reported near Uman, Cherkasy/Kyiv border, Vasylkiv, Boryspil, entering Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv, and W of Konotop. Earlier AD activity in Kyiv Oblast, explosions in Sumy.
Mykolaiv (Apr 5): 3 WIA from drone attack on residential area.
Sumy (Apr 5): Explosions reported during Shahed attack (engagement/impacts).
Ukrainian Air Defence: Actively engaging ongoing Shahed attack. Monitoring inbound Kalibr missiles and strategic bomber activity. Alert system active across threatened regions.
Ukrainian Strike Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) near Huyevo, Russia. Confirmed deep drone strikes on Saransk and Chapayevsk targets in Russia (Apr 4-5). Active tactical drone operations along the front.
