Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 14:27 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

• Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple axes. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 81 combat engagements between the start of the day and 13:00 UTC on April 4. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure, primarily focused on eastern axes.
• Axis Intensity (Based on UGS 13:00 UTC Update):
  • Lyman: Extremely high intensity (28 attacks reported), with 14 ongoing engagements near Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, and Nadiia.
  • Toretsk: High intensity (13 attempts) near Krymske, Dachne, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Dyliivka; 3 ongoing engagements.
  • Pokrovsk: High intensity (13 attempts) near Andriivka, Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka; 10 attacks repelled.
  • Kursk Border: Significant activity (7 attacks repelled, 2 ongoing engagements). Russian forces conducted 3 air strikes (5 KABs) and 211 artillery strikes in the area. Russian MoD claims offensive actions by "Sever" group targeting UA forces near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk) and inflicting losses (>190 claimed KIA/WIA, equipment losses) on UA forces operating near the Sumy border.
  • Novopavlivsk: Continued pressure (5 attacks) near Kostiantynopil and Rozlyv; 4 ongoing engagements.
  • Other Active Axes: Orikhiv (4 clashes, 2 ongoing near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove), Siversk (2 clashes, 1 ongoing near Bilohorivka/towards Verkhnokamyanske), Kharkiv (2 attempts near Vovchansk/towards Kamyanka repelled), Kupyansk (2 attempts near Zahryzove stopped), Huliaipole (1 attack near Novosilka).
• Territorial Changes & Claims:
  • Russian Claimed Advance (Novopavlivsk/Shakhtarsk Axis): Russian sources maintain claim of >1.5km depth, 1km width advance near Bohatyr, capturing strongpoints and a key height (Voin DV, Apr 4).
  • Russian Confirmed Captures (RU MoD Weekly Report, Apr 4): Reinforces previous claims: Rozivka (Toretsk), Uspenivka (Pokrovsk), Panteleymonovka (Donetsk), Zaporozhye (likely Donetsk axis), Razliv (Novopavlivsk), Veseloye (Novopavlivsk), Shcherbaki (Zaporizhzhia), Lobkovoye (Zaporizhzhia).
  • Assessed Russian Advances (DeepState, Apr 4): Russian forces advanced in Toretsk and near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia).
• Russian Air, Missile & Drone Activity:
  • High Volume Persists: UGS (Apr 4 AM) reported 1 missile, 104 aviation strikes (193 KABs), >5600 shelling, 2203 kamikaze drones (previous 24h). RU MoD weekly report claimed 7 group strikes on military infrastructure/industry.
  • Recent/Ongoing Threats (approx. 13:30-14:25 UTC):
    • KABs launched towards Kharkiv.
    • High-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia.
    • KAB launches towards Dudchany/Havrylivka (Kherson Oblast).
    • KAB launches towards Kherson Oblast (general).
    • KAB launches towards Zaporizhzhia region.
    • General threat from tactical aviation active on NE/SE axes for frontline oblasts.
    • Air raid alerts declared/ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and city. Russian aviation reported departing NE/SE axes around 14:03 UTC, but renewed activity noted around 14:22 UTC.
  • Civilian Impact:
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued nightly Russian attacks on Kushuhumska community (KABs/drones). Apr 3: Supermarket/warehouse hit in Kushuhum. Apr 1: 2 KIA, 7 WIA in Malokaterynivka. Apr 4: RU FPV drone targeted civilian vehicle near Stepnohirsk (1 driver WIA).
    • Kharkiv City (Apr 3-4): Major drone attack: 5 KIA, 32 WIA.
    • Dnipro City (Apr 3-4): Drone damaged Regional Council. Car bomb killed local official (Terrorism investigation).
  • Claimed Russian Strikes:
    • Dnipropetrovsk Airport (RU Claim): Strike allegedly destroyed 5 civilian aircraft (claimed repurposed for AFU) and a 1,500 sq m hangar (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 4).
    • Sumy Region (RU Claim): FPV drones destroyed AFU dugout with personnel (RU MoD, Apr 4); FPV drones destroyed AFU pickups with personnel (TASS/RU MoD, Apr 4).
• Strikes on Russian Territory:
  • Energy Infrastructure (RU Claim): 6 Ukrainian attacks claimed (Bryansk, Tambov, Lipetsk Oblasts) in 24h prior to Apr 4 mid-day (Dnevnik Desantnika).
  • Bryansk Oblast (RU Claims):
    • Attack damaged bridge between Demyanky and Azarovka (Staryi Dub district) using a "reactive projectile" (Bogomaz/Dva Mayora, Apr 4).
    • FPV drone attack damaged power substation in Lemeshovka (Sevsky district), disrupting power (Bogomaz/Dva Mayora, Apr 4).
  • Horlivka (RU Claim): Ukrainian drone attacked civilian car.

II. Ukrainian Operations & Capabilities

• Air Defense: Intercepted 42/78 Shahed UAVs (overnight Apr 3-4). Destroyed 11 RU recon UAVs (recent).
• Ground/Drone Strikes & Equipment Destruction:
  • UGS (Apr 4 AM): Targeted 9 RU concentration areas, 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery systems, 1 command post.
  • 82nd Air Assault Brigade (Wild Division): Reported drone operations destroying/damaging RU antenna, positions, downing 2 Autel drones, and eliminating at least 10 RU personnel (Sternenko, Apr 4).
  • 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade: Drone operators reported conducting reconnaissance and artillery correction against RU targets in Kherson Oblast (UA Southern Defense Forces, Apr 4).
  • 30th Mech Bde (Sternenko, Apr 4): Reported drone strikes destroying/damaging RU vehicle, IFV, golf cart, artillery, personnel (Donetsk front).
  • Other FPV strikes reported by multiple units.
• Border Operations (Kursk Oblast): UGS (Apr 4 PM) reported 7 Russian attacks repelled, 2 ongoing clashes. President Zelenskyy previously acknowledged operations by 80th & 82nd Air Assault, 36th Marine Brigades in the area. Russian sources continue reporting fighting and claim UA losses.
• Logistics & Support:
  • Railway Infrastructure: Ukraine contracted Chinese company for 32,000 tons of rails (~245km track), 16,000 tons expected shipment Apr 2025 (RU Source - Dva Mayora, Apr 4).
  • Poland delivered 5,000 Starlink terminals (total >50,000).
  • Denmark announced $987 million military aid package (to 2027).
  • Kryvyi Rih provided UAH 2.7M aid to 13th NGU Bde "Khartia".

III. Russian Capabilities, Tactics & Internal Factors

• Tactics: Heavy reliance on Glide Bombs (KABs). Concentrated ground assaults (Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk). FPV drone use reported in assaults (Orikhiv). Ongoing adaptation against drones (EW, cages).
• Personnel & Morale: Reports of poor casualty evacuation for wounded Russian soldiers (e.g., 247th DShP - Mobilization channel video, Apr 4). Reports of coercion, poor conditions persist (POW interviews). Reports of criminality among returning soldiers (ASTRA/Butusov Plus, Apr 4). FSB claims detention of serviceman recruited by GUR (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 4).
• Command & Control: Suspicion notices issued by UA PGO to RU Black Sea Fleet Commander (Adm. Sokolov), Chief of Staff (VAdm. Romanov), and 15th Coastal Missile Bde Commander (Col. Shcherbakov) for Nov 2023 Odesa Onyx strike (UA PGO, Apr 4).
• Internal Security/Legal (Ukraine): Colonel Illia Lapin (former 125th TrO Bde Bn Cmdr), investigated for Kharkiv defense failures (May 2024), moved from pre-trial detention to house arrest (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 4).

IV. Naval Situation

• Black Sea/Azov Sea: No Russian warships reported deployed (Ukrainian Navy, Apr 4 AM).
• Mediterranean Sea: 4 Russian warships present, 3 Kalibr carriers (potential salvo 26 missiles) (Ukrainian Navy, Apr 4 AM).

V. Political & Diplomatic Context

• Peace Negotiations/Ceasefire: US SecState Rubio statement on needing Russian seriousness "in weeks" noted. Russian sources reject preconditions, blame Ukraine for violating "energy strike moratorium" (Starshie Eddy, Apr 4). Political analyst (via RBC-Ukraina) assesses full ceasefire unlikely before April 20.
• NATO: Netherlands FM expects President Zelenskyy invitation to The Hague summit.
• Allied Support: Denmark aid announced. EU €3.5bn tranche received (Apr 1).
• Bilateral Relations: Ukraine and Hungary agree to hold consultations next week to address problematic issues (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 4).
• Regional: Armenia's President signed law initiating process for EU membership application (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU, ASTRA, Apr 4). Russia stated this implies Armenia's exit from EAEU.

VI. Humanitarian & Legal

• Civilian Casualties: Ongoing casualties from Russian strikes: Kushuhumska community (Zaporizhzhia, Apr 1 & 3); Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia, Apr 4 - 1 WIA); Kharkiv (Apr 3-4 - 5 KIA, 32 WIA); Dnipro (Apr 3-4 - 1 KIA).
• POW/MIA: Coordination HQ held meetings with families (Apr 4).
• War Crimes Accountability: SBU/PGO issued suspicion notices to RU naval commanders for Nov 2023 Odesa strike.
• Occupied Territories: FSB conducted searches in Crimean Tatar homes (Zemlianychne, Crimea), targeting family of ATR journalist; father hospitalized (ASTRA, Apr 4).