Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 13:57 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple axes. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 81 combat engagements between the start of the day and 13:00 UTC on April 4. Russian forces continue offensive pressure with primary focus on eastern axes.
Axis Intensity (UGS 13:00 UTC Update):
Lyman: Extremely high intensity (28 attacks), with 14 ongoing engagements reported near Novomykhailivka, Katerynivka, Hrekivka, Olhivka, Novoserhiivka, Nove, and Nadiia.
Toretsk: High intensity (13 attempts) near Krymske, Dachne, Toretsk, Leonidivka, and towards Dyliivka; 3 ongoing engagements.
Pokrovsk: High intensity (13 attempts) near Andriivka, Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka; 10 attacks repelled.
Kursk Border: Significant activity (7 attacks repelled, 2 ongoing engagements). Russian forces conducted 3 air strikes (5 KABs) and 211 artillery strikes in the area.
Novopavlivsk: Continued pressure (5 attacks) near Kostiantynopil and Rozlyv; 4 ongoing engagements. Russian air strikes reported in Bohatyr area.
Other Active Axes: Orikhiv (4 clashes, 2 ongoing near Mali Shcherbaky, Stepove), Siversk (2 clashes, 1 ongoing near Bilohorivka/towards Verkhnokamyanske), Kharkiv (2 attempts near Vovchansk/towards Kamyanka repelled), Kupyansk (2 attempts near Zahryzove stopped), Huliaipole (1 attack near Novosilka).
Territorial Changes & Claims:
Russian Claimed Advance (Novopavlivsk/Shakhtarsk Axis): Russian sources claim forces of the "Vostok" grouping advanced >1.5km deep and up to 1km wide near Bohatyr, capturing 3 Ukrainian strongpoints, a water pumping station, and a key height, allegedly improving fire control (Voin DV, Apr 4).
Assessed Russian Advances (DeepState, Apr 4 - Pre-UGS update): Russian forces advanced in Toretsk and near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia).
Russian Air, Missile & Drone Activity:
High Volume: UGS (Apr 4 AM) reported 1 missile strike, 104 aviation strikes (using 193 KABs), >5600 shelling attacks, and 2203 kamikaze drones in the 24 hours preceding Apr 4 AM. RU MoD weekly report claimed 7 group strikes targeting military infrastructure, industry, command posts, and drone facilities over the past week. UGS (Apr 4 PM) reported RU KAB strikes near Pokrovsk, Sukhyi Yar, Bohatyr, Novopil, Huliaipole, Novodarivka, and 5 KABs in Kursk Oblast border area.
Ongoing Threats (13:30-13:55 UTC): Alerts for KABs towards Kharkiv, high-speed target towards Zaporizhzhia, general threat from tactical aviation activity on NE/SE axes for frontline oblasts. Air raid alerts declared and ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Civilian Impact (Recent):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian attacks reported nightly on Kushuhumska community since early April using KABs/drones. Apr 3: Strike hit supermarket/warehouse in Kushuhum. Apr 1: 2 civilians KIA, 7 WIA in Malokaterynivka. On Apr 4, RU FPV drone targeted and destroyed a civilian vehicle on the highway near Stepnohirsk, injuring the driver.
Kharkiv City (Apr 3-4): Large-scale drone attack resulted in 5 civilians killed, 32 wounded, hitting residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.
Dnipro City (Apr 3-4): Drone strike damaged Regional Council building. Car bomb killed Yuriy Fedko (Head of Livoberezhna admin), investigated as Terrorism.
Strikes on Russian Territory: Russian sources claim 6 Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure (Bryansk, Tambov, Lipetsk Oblasts) in the past 24 hours (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 4). Ukrainian drone attack claimed on civilian car in Horlivka (RU source).
II. Ukrainian Operations & Capabilities
Air Defense: Intercepted 42 out of 78 Russian Shahed-type UAVs overnight (Apr 3-4). Destroyed 11 Russian reconnaissance UAVs recently (various units).
Ground Strikes & Equipment Destruction:
UGS (Apr 4 AM): Targeted 9 RU concentration areas, 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery systems, 1 command post.
OTU Kharkiv (Apr 4 AM): Destroyed 82 RU shelters, 2 ammo dumps on Kharkiv axis.
Other FPV strikes reported by multiple units, including destruction of RU mortar near Dyliivka (Toretsk axis) by 132nd Bde UAV / 238th Arty Bde (NM DNR, Apr 4).
Border Operations (Kursk Oblast): UGS (Apr 4 PM) reported 7 Russian attacks repelled, 2 ongoing clashes. Activity acknowledged by President Zelenskyy, involving 80th & 82nd Air Assault, 36th Marine Brigades. Russian sources continue to report fighting and claim destruction of UA equipment/forces in the area.
Logistics & Support:
Rail Infrastructure: Ukraine contracted a Chinese company for 32,000 tons of railway rails (sufficient for ~245km), with 16,000 tons expected shipment this month via sea. (RU Source - Dva Mayora, Apr 4).
Denmark announced $987 million military aid package (to 2027).
Kryvyi Rih provided UAH 2.7M aid (pickup, 15 drones) to 13th NGU Bde "Khartia".
III. Russian Capabilities, Tactics & Internal Factors
Tactics: Heavy reliance on Glide Bombs (KABs). Concentrated ground assaults on key axes (Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk). Use of FPV drones in assaults reported (Orikhiv direction). Continued adaptation against drones (EW, adapted armor).
Personnel & Morale: Reports of coercion, poor conditions, and abuse persist (POW interviews - Butusov Plus, Apr 4). FSB claims detention of serviceman recruited by GUR for planned attack in Moscow region (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 4). Reports of criminality among returning soldiers (ASTRA/Butusov Plus, Apr 4).
Command & Control: Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office issued suspicion notices to RU Black Sea Fleet Commander (Adm. Viktor Sokolov), Chief of Staff (VAdm. Arkadiy Romanov), and 15th Coastal Missile Bde Commander (Col. Oleksiy Shcherbakov) for ordering the Nov 5, 2023, Onyx missile strike damaging UNESCO sites in Odesa (UA PGO, RBC-Ukraina Apr 4).
Internal Security/Legal (Ukraine): Colonel Illia Lapin, former commander of 415th Bn, 125th TrO Bde, investigated for Kharkiv defense failures (May 2024), had pre-trial detention changed to house arrest due to age/health (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 4).
IV. Naval Situation
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No Russian warships reported deployed (Ukrainian Navy, Apr 4 AM).
Peace Negotiations/Ceasefire: US SecState Rubio stated need to see Russian seriousness "in weeks," message reportedly conveyed to Kremlin. Russian sources reject preconditions, claim adherence to "energy strike moratorium" while blaming Ukraine for violations, and dismiss talks as benefiting Ukraine (Starshie Eddy, Apr 4).
NATO: Netherlands FM expects President Zelenskyy to be invited to the NATO summit in The Hague (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 4).
Allied Support: US aid/intelligence flow expected despite US absence from Ramstein meeting. Denmark announced significant aid. Ukraine received €3.5bn tranche from EU (Apr 1).
Regional: Armenia reportedly signed law initiating process for EU membership application (TASS, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 4).
POW/MIA: Coordination HQ held meetings with families of captured/missing servicemen (Apr 4).
War Crimes Accountability: SBU/PGO issued suspicion notices to high-ranking Russian naval commanders for Nov 2023 Odesa UNESCO site strike.
Occupied Territories: FSB conducted searches in Crimean Tatar homes in Zemlianychne (Bilohirsk district, Crimea), targeting family of ATR journalist; father hospitalized during search (ASTRA, Apr 4).
