Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 13:27 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple axes. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 156 combat engagements in the 24 hours preceding Apr 4 AM. Russian forces maintain primary offensive pressure with extremely high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (57 attacks) and significantly increased intensity on the Toretsk axis (29 attacks).
Other Significant Combat Zones (Past 24h): Intense fighting persists on the Lyman (19 attacks), Kursk border (13 clashes), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Orikhiv (8 attacks), Kupyansk (5 attacks), Siversk (4 attacks), Kharkiv (4 attacks), and Prydniprovsky (2 attempts repelled) directions.
Kharkiv Axis: Operational situation remains complex. Four Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka. Russian attempts to establish crossings over the Oskil River were reported as unsuccessful.
Assessed Russian Advances (DeepState, Apr 4): Russian forces advanced in Toretsk and near Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia).
Russian Claimed Advances (Unconfirmed): Multiple claims of advances in the Pokrovsk sector (Udachne, Zverevo, Shevchenko, Lysovka), Lyman sector (Yampolivka, N of Novoliubivka), Novopavlivsk sector (W of Razliv, towards Komar), and Orikhiv sector (near Shcherbaky). Capture of Basovka (Sumy Oblast) claimed.
Russian Air & Missile Strikes:
High Volume: UGS reported 1 missile strike, 104 aviation strikes (using 193 KABs), >5600 shelling attacks, and 2203 kamikaze drones in the past 24 hours. Russian MoD weekly report claimed 7 group strikes targeting military infrastructure, industry, command posts, and drone facilities over the past week.
Major Civilian Impact (Kharkiv City, Apr 3-4): Large-scale drone attack resulted in 5 civilians killed, 32 wounded, hitting residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. Russia claims strikes targeted military logistics and production facilities.
Major Civilian Impact (Dnipro City, Apr 3-4): Drone strike damaged the Regional Council building. A car bomb explosion killed Yuriy Fedko, Head of Livoberezhna city administration; incident investigated as a Terrorist Act (Art. 258 CCU), with potential Russian special services involvement considered. Russia claims strikes on Dnipropetrovsk airport.
Strikes on Russian Territory: Russia claims 6 Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure (Bryansk, Tambov, Lipetsk Oblasts) and a drone attack on an agricultural enterprise (Bryansk). Explosion reported near Luhovka, Belgorod Oblast (Ukrainian source).
II. Ukrainian Operations & Capabilities
Air Defense:42 out of 78 Russian Shahed-type UAVs intercepted overnight (Apr 3-4). 11 Russian reconnaissance UAVs destroyed recently (various units).
Ground Strikes: Ukrainian forces targeted 9 Russian concentration areas, 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery systems, and 1 command post (UGS, Apr 4 AM). On the Kharkiv axis, 82 Russian shelters and 2 ammo storage locations were destroyed (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 4 AM).
Specific Equipment Destruction Claims: Russian "Tirada-2" EW station (Shadow Unit); Tigr armored vehicle + personnel (GUR near Melitopol); Heavily modified Russian vehicle ("Tsar Mangal") destroyed by 30th Mech Bde drone. Multiple other FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel and equipment reported by various brigades (30th Mech, 66th Bde, 3rd SOF Regt).
Border Operations (Kursk Oblast):13 clashes reported. Ukrainian 80th & 82nd Air Assault Brigades and 36th Marine Brigade confirmed operating in Kursk Oblast (Zelenskyy acknowledgement, DShV report). Report highlights actions of DShV Recon Bn soldier operating Oncilla BTR under FPV fire. Russia acknowledges ongoing operations to neutralize Ukrainian forces in the region, claims advances near Huyevo/Oleshnia and capture of Basovka. Russia claims inflicting >190 Ukrainian casualties in 24h (likely inflated).
Logistics & Support:
Poland delivered an additional 5,000 Starlink terminals (total >50,000).
Denmark announced a $987 million military aid package (phased to 2027).
US arms and intelligence flow expected to continue despite US non-participation in the upcoming Ramstein meeting (NATO Sec Gen Rutte).
Kryvyi Rih Defense Council provided UAH 2.7M in aid (pickup truck, 15 drones) to the 13th NGU Bde "Khartia".
III. Russian Capabilities, Tactics & Internal Factors
Tactics & Adaptation: Heavy reliance on Glide Bombs (KABs - 193 in 24h). Concentrated ground assaults (Pokrovsk, Toretsk). Use of adapted armor ("Tsar Mangal" structure), mine trawls, and EW against drones. Use of older M-30 howitzers noted. Increased drone strikes (~50%) since peace talks began reported (The Telegraph).
Personnel & Morale: Reports of high losses and poor treatment persist (POW interviews). Evidence of internal disciplinary issues (alleged firefight between RU MP and soldiers). FSB claims detention of serviceman recruited by GUR to conduct attack in Moscow region. Crowdfunding appeals for basic equipment continue.
Industrial Capacity: RUSI report on Russian outproduction of NATO noted by Russian sources.
Command & Control: Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office announced suspicion against the Russian Black Sea Fleet Commander (Admiral), Chief of Staff (Vice-Admiral), and Commander of the 15th Coastal Missile Brigade (Colonel) for ordering the November 5, 2023 Onyx missile strike that damaged UNESCO sites in Odesa.
Internal Security/Legal: In Ukraine, the former commander of the 415th Bn, 125th TrO Bde, under investigation regarding Kharkiv defense failures (May 2024), had his pre-trial detention changed to house arrest due to age/health considerations.
IV. Naval Situation
Black Sea/Azov Sea: No Russian warships reported deployed (Ukrainian Navy, Apr 4 AM).
Mediterranean Sea: 4 Russian warships present, including 3 Kalibr carriers with a potential total salvo of 26 missiles (Ukrainian Navy, Apr 4 AM).
Air Activity: NATO ISR assets (US P-8A Poseidon) active over the Black Sea (Russian source claim).
V. Political & Diplomatic Context
Peace Negotiations: US Secretary of State Rubio stated the US needs to see Russian seriousness on peace "in weeks". US reportedly conveyed message to Kremlin via RDIF Head Dmitriev emphasizing a short timeline for progress. Russia continues to demand preconditions unacceptable to Ukraine.
NATO: Secretary General Rutte affirmed support "as long as necessary," views Russia as the primary long-term threat, and defined "sustainable peace" as Russia being incapable of further aggression.
Allied Support: US aid/intelligence flow expected to continue despite US leadership absence from the Apr 11 Ramstein meeting. Denmark announced significant long-term aid.
VI. Humanitarian & Legal
Civilian Casualties: Significant casualties reported from Russian strikes in Kharkiv (5 KIA, 32 WIA) and Kryvyi Rih (4 KIA, 17 WIA, Apr 2). Official killed in Dnipro car bombing (Terrorist Act). Civilian killed by claimed Ukrainian drone in occupied Horlivka (Russian source).
POW/MIA: Coordination HQ held meetings with families of Ukrainian Marines (35th-38th Bdes) captured/missing near Krynky.
War Crimes Accountability: Ukrainian prosecutors issued notices of suspicion to high-ranking Russian naval commanders regarding the Nov 2023 strike on Odesa UNESCO sites.
