Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 06:27 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 4, incorporating Ukrainian General Staff data as of Apr 4 05:00 UTC, UA Air Force data up to Apr 4 06:24 UTC, regional administration reports, and other sources up to Apr 4 06:27 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 156 combat engagements over the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 4).
Primary Russian Offensive Pressure: Concentrated with extremely high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (57 attacks repelled) and significant intensity on the Toretsk axis (29 attacks repelled).
Other Active Fronts (Past 24h - UGS): High levels of combat activity persist on the Lyman (19 attacks), Kursk border (13 clashes), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Orikhiv (8 attacks), Kupyansk (5 attacks), Siversk (4 attacks), Kharkiv (4 attacks), and Prydniprovsky (2 attempts) directions.
Weather Impact: Russian sources continue reporting difficult ground mobility due to rain and mud.
Russian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS): Russia conducted 1 missile strike, 104 aviation strikes (using 193 KABs), over 5600 shelling attacks (146 MLRS), and employed 2203 kamikaze drones.
Specific KAB/Air Strike Locations (UGS): Sumy Oblast (Stepek, Myropilske, Pokrovka, Petrushivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Turya, Prokhody, Krasnopillya, Ryasne, Velyky Prykil, Mykhailivske); Chernihiv Oblast (Mykolaivka); Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopil, Voskresenka); Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Sichneve, Velykomykhailivka, Malynivka, Komyshuvakha).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Strikes (Past 24h):
Overnight Drone Attack (Night Apr 3-4 - UA AF): Russia launched 78 UAVs (Shahed & various imitator types) from Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk (RU). UA Air Force reports 42 Shahed/other attack UAVs shot down over North, East, Center Ukraine. 22 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Impacts confirmed in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Ground Target Strikes (UGS): Ukrainian forces targeted 9 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery pieces, and 1 command/observation post.
Claimed Target Strike (UA - Shadow Unit, Apr 4): Video released showing the destruction of a Russian "Tirada-2" Electronic Warfare (EW) station by UA UAVs.
Claimed Drone Strikes (UA - Phoenix Unit, Apr 4): Video released claiming drone strikes by State Border Guard Service unit "Phoenix" on the Kramatorsk axis resulted in 17 RU KIA and 11 RU WIA.
II. Major Axes & Operational Updates
Pokrovsk Axis: Remains highest intensity zone (57 RU attacks repelled - UGS). Fighting near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and attacks towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyarivka, Oleksandropil.
RU CLAIM (Rybar, Apr 4): RU forces advanced west of Andriivka (SW of Bakhmut) towards Oleksiivka.
UA CLAIM (Butusov/46th Airmobile Bde, Apr 4): Video shows destruction of RU assault column (incl. 42 infantry) near Andriivka (likely SW of Bakhmut).
Lyman Axis: High activity (19 RU attacks repelled - UGS). Fighting near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna.
RU CLAIM (Rybar, Apr 4): RU forces captured strongpoints on Lozova – Veselyi Hai line; slow progress towards Borovska Andriivka. Fighting near Nadiia; RU assault groups occupied positions near Novoliubivka.
RU CLAIM (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 4): RU forces ("West" Group) pushed UA forces back from Nevske and Novoliubivka, attempting to link with northern плацдарм near Makiivka.
Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast: High activity (13 clashes - UGS). RU conducted 359 arty attacks (4 MLRS), 16 air strikes (28 KABs) in past 24h (UGS).
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo, Apr 4): RU forces advancing towards Huyevo and Oleshnia, expanding control zone.
Current Threat (UA AF, 05:44 UTC Apr 4): Ongoing RU recon UAV activity over Sumy Oblast, including Sumy city.
Current Threat (UA AF, 06:24 UTC Apr 4):KABs launched by RU tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast.
Novopavlivsk Axis / South Donetsk / Vremivka: Significant activity (9 RU assaults repelled - UGS). Attacks towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil. Vesele & Razliv confirmed captured by RU previously.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo, Apr 4): RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr and Komar. Tactical successes near Burlatske.
RU CLAIM (Rybar, Apr 4): RU "Vostok" Group broke through UA positions, cleared Vesele. Fighting continues towards Fedorivka.
RU CLAIM (Voin DV, Apr 4): Video shows RU 14th Spetsnaz Brigade drone destroying UA AGS near Bohatyr.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): High activity (8 unsuccessful RU attacks - UGS). Fighting near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. Lobkove confirmed captured by RU previously.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo, Apr 4): Combat activity reactivated near Kamyanske.
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate activity (5 RU attacks repelled - UGS). Attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka.
RU CLAIM (Slyvochnyi Kapriz, Apr 4): RU forces occupied new positions on the west bank of Oskil River north of Dvorichna (near Kam'yanka/Dvorichne). Positional fighting ongoing. UA drones shelled RU position in Kamenka (Apr 3).
RU CLAIM (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 4): RU forces ("West" Group) expanded Dvorichna плацдарм; after capturing Krasne Pershe, blocked road towards Kamianka and initiated fighting within Kamianka. Fighting also ongoing for Figolivka (south), and in NE Kondrashivka / SE Mala Shapkivka.
Kharkiv Axis: Low activity (4 RU attacks repelled - UGS near Vovchansk and Kamyanka over past 24h).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Low activity (2 RU attempts repelled - UGS).
III. Air & Naval Situation
Air Threats (Current):
(06:20 UTC) Threat of Russian tactical aviation activity on northeastern direction impacting frontline oblasts (UA AF).
(06:24 UTC) Confirmed KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast (UA AF).
Naval Situation (Black/Azov/Mediterranean Seas - as of Apr 4, 03:00 UTC):
Black Sea / Sea of Azov: No Russian warships or Kalibr carriers detected (UA Navy).
IV. Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory & Border Clashes
Kursk/Belgorod Border Clashes: Ukrainian cross-border operations ongoing (13 clashes reported by UGS in Kursk direction over past 24h).
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo, Apr 4): Heavy fighting continues near Dmytrivka and Popovka (Belgorod). Reports of UA force concentration in rear areas.
Massive Overnight Drone Attack (Apr 3-4):
UA Air Force Data: Russia launched 78 UAVs (Shahed & imitators); 42 attack UAVs shot down, 22 imitators lost track. Impacts in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Lipetsk Oblast: Targets claimed: airfield, NLMK steel plant (UA source). Damage to 3 private houses from debris (RU Gov).
Bryansk Oblast:1 civilian KIA, 1 WIA in Belaia Berezka from attack (RU Gov).
Moscow Oblast: Damage to houses in Streymilovo (RU source).
Other Oblasts (Kaluga, Rostov, Tula, Oryol, Tambov, Voronezh): Intercepts claimed by RU MoD.
V. Territorial Control Changes (Summary - Based on reports up to Apr 4, 06:27 UTC)
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2); Reported near Novoelizavetivka (SW of Pokrovsk, ISW Apr 4); Reported entry into Nadiia (Lyman axis, ISW Apr 4); Claimed advance to western outskirts of Solone (SW of Pokrovsk, RU sources cited by UA source Apr 4).
Pokrovsk: West of Andriivka towards Oleksiivka (Rybar).
Novopavlivsk/Vremivka: Towards Bohatyr/Komar, near Burlatske (WarGonzo); Towards Fedorivka from Vesele (Rybar). Geolocated advance along Mokri Yaly river.
Kursk/Sumy: Advancing towards Huyevo, Oleshnia; expanding control zone (WarGonzo).
Orikhiv: Near Kamyanske (WarGonzo).
Lyman: Captured strongpoints on Lozova-Veselyi Hai line; near Novoliubivka (Rybar); Pushed UA from Nevske/Novoliubivka, fighting towards Makiivka (Voenkor Kotenok).
Kupyansk: Occupied positions N of Dvorichna on W bank of Oskil (Slyvochnyi Kapriz); After Krasne Pershe, fighting in Kamianka, fighting for Figolivka, NE Kondrashivka / SE Mala Shapkivka (Voenkor Kotenok).
VI. Civilian Impact & Significant Incidents (Ukraine)
Kharkiv City & Oblast (Night Apr 3/4 Drone Attack & Past 24h - Kharkiv PGO/OVA/DSNS):
Kharkiv City (Novobavarskyi Dist.):4 civilians KIA (charred remains found), 35 WIA (incl. children aged 16, 12, 9) from Shahed strikes on residential buildings. Hits also on admin building. War crimes investigation initiated.
Ruski Tyshky: 1 civilian WIA (UAV strike).
Shevchenkove: 2 civilians WIA (UAV strike).
Starovirivka: Shahed hit warehouse.
Kupyansk City: MLRS damaged house.
Kozacha Lopan: KAB damaged houses, gas line.
Maliivka: UAV damaged house roof.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Night Apr 3/4 Drone Attack & Recent):
Overnight drone attack resulted in 3 civilians WIA (OVA). Damage to infrastructure, buildings, vehicles.
Dnipro City (Morning Apr 4): Car explosion reported around 07:40 UTC targeting a local official. Official Yuri Fedko (Head of Left Bank Admin) and his wife injured (Police/RBC sources). Investigation ongoing.
Ongoing RU shelling/drones on Nikopol District.
Kryvyi Rih: Day of mourning (Apr 4) for 4 KIA from Apr 2 missile strike.
Kyiv Oblast (Brovary district - Night Apr 3/4 Drone Attack - Mayor/KMVA/OVA):
Falling drone debris caused 2 civilians WIA.
Fires/damage at service station, gas station, admin buildings, auto dealership. Destroyed: 6 cars, 2 trucks. Damaged: 12 cars, 1 bus, 8 trucks.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h):1 civilian WIA reported from overnight drone strike (ASTRA citing OVA).
VII. Claimed Losses (Past 24 Hours as of Apr 4, 05:00 UTC - UGS)
Claimed Specific RU Losses: 6 officers KIA (Stirlitz, unverified); Column with 42 infantry near Andriivka (Butusov/46th Airmobile Bde); 17 KIA, 11 WIA Kramatorsk axis (Phoenix Unit); Tirada-2 EW station (Shadow Unit).
Claimed Specific UA Losses (RU Sources): AGS near Bohatyr (Voin DV). Bradley BMP in Oleshnia (Sumy), engineering vehicles near Demidovka (Belgorod) (Apr 3 claims). Car bombing of official in Dnipro (Apr 4).
