Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 05:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 4, incorporating Ukrainian General Staff data as of Apr 4 05:00 UTC, UA Air Force data up to Apr 4 05:44 UTC, regional administration reports, and other sources up to Apr 4 05:57 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 156 combat engagements over the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 4). Primary Russian offensive pressure continues with extremely high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (57 attacks) and significant intensity on the Toretsk axis (29 attacks). High levels of combat activity also persist on the Lyman (19 attacks), Kursk border (13 clashes), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Orikhiv (8 attacks), Kupyansk (5 attacks), Siversk (4 attacks), Kharkiv (4 attacks), and Prydniprovsky (2 attempts) directions. Russian sources continue to report difficult weather conditions (rain, mud) impacting ground mobility.
Russian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS): Russia conducted 1 missile strike, 104 aviation strikes (using 193 KABs), over 5600 shelling attacks (146 MLRS), and employed 2203 kamikaze drones.
Specific KAB/Air Strike Locations (UGS): Sumy Oblast (Stepek, Myropilske, Pokrovka, Petrushivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Turya, Prokhody, Krasnopillya, Ryasne, Velyky Prykil, Mykhailivske); Chernihiv Oblast (Mykolaivka); Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopil, Voskresenka); Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Sichneve, Velykomykhailivka, Malynivka, Komyshuvakha).
Ukrainian Air Defense / Strikes (Past 24h):
Overnight Drone Attack (Night Apr 3-4 - UA AF): Russia launched 78 UAVs (Shahed & various imitator types) from Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk (RU). UA Air Force reports 42 Shahed/other attack UAVs shot down in North, East, Center Ukraine. 22 imitator drones were "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Impacts confirmed in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. (Note: RU MoD previously claimed 107 total UA UAVs intercepted over 11 regions during a similar timeframe).
Ground Target Strikes (UGS): Ukrainian forces targeted 9 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery pieces, and 1 command/observation post.
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:
Pokrovsk: Remains the highest intensity zone (57 RU attacks stopped - UGS). Fighting occurred near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and attacks directed towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyarivka, Oleksandropil.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Attempted RU attack near Oleksiivka met strong UA resistance.
RU CLAIM (Rybar): RU forces advanced west of Andriivka (SW of Bakhmut/Kramatorsk Axis cluster, but listed under Pokrovsk by UGS today) towards Oleksiivka, pushing back UA forces despite counterattacks and cluster munition use.
UA CLAIM (Butusov/46th Airmobile Bde): Video released showing destruction of RU assault column including equipment and 42 infantry near Andriivka (likely SW of Bakhmut, but UGS includes Andriivka in Pokrovsk direction summary today).
UA Action: UA drone units active (DeepState/108th Bde video).
Secondary Axes of Intense Fighting / Claimed Russian Advances:
Lyman: High activity (19 RU attacks - UGS). Fighting near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna.
RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Russian forces expanded zone of control near Nove and Katerynivka (west bank of Zherebets River).
RU CLAIM (Rybar): RU forces captured strongpoints on Lozova – Veselyi Hai line; slow progress towards Borovska Andriivka due to dense UA defense. Fighting continues near Nadiia; RU assault groups occupied positions in forest belts near Novoliubivka (administrative border Luhansk/Donetsk).
Previous Reports: Intense fighting and geolocated RU advances W of Zherebets River reported. ISW previously reported Ukrainian entry into Nadiia.
Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast: High activity (13 clashes - UGS). RU conducted 359 arty attacks (4 MLRS), 16 air strikes (28 KABs) in the past 24h (UGS).
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): RU forces advancing towards Huyevo and Oleshnia, expanding control zone in Sumy Oblast. UA forces attempting defense.
Current Threat: UA Air Force reports ongoing RU recon UAV activity over Sumy Oblast, including over Sumy city (05:44 UTC Apr 4).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk / Vremivka: Significant activity (9 RU assaults repelled - UGS). Attacks directed towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil. Vesele & Razliv confirmed captured by RU previously.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr and Komar. Tactical successes claimed near Burlatske.
RU CLAIM (Rybar): RU "Vostok" Group broke through UA positions and cleared Vesele (Vremivka direction). Fighting continues towards Fedorivka and towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Rybar claims UA sources downplay retreat. Geolocated RU advance along Mokri Yaly river previously confirmed.
Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia): High activity (8 unsuccessful RU attacks - UGS). Fighting occurred near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. Lobkove confirmed captured by RU previously.
RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Combat activity reactivated near Kamyanske. Aim reported to expand zone of control near Lobkove/Shcherbaky.
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate activity (5 RU attacks - UGS). Attacks repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka.
RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Russian forces advanced near Krasne Pershe and destroyed UA fortifications near Kamianka (Kharkiv Oblast).
RU CLAIM (Slyvochnyi Kapriz): RU forces occupied new positions on the west bank of the Oskil River north of Dvorichna. (Coordinates provided: 49.974573 37.838254 - near Kam'yanka/Dvorichne). Reports UA drones shelled RU position in Kamenka (Apr 3). Positional fighting ongoing.
Belgorod Border Area:RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Heavy fighting continues near Dmytrivka and Popovka. Reports of UA force concentration in rear areas. Daily UA attempts to breach RU defense claimed unsuccessful.
Naval Situation (Black/Azov/Mediterranean Seas - as of Apr 4, 03:00 UTC):
Black Sea / Sea of Azov: No Russian warships or Kalibr carriers detected (UA Navy).
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Ukrainian operations ongoing (13 clashes reported by UGS in Kursk direction over past 24h).
Massive Overnight Drone Attack (Apr 3-4):
UA Air Force Data: Russia launched 78 UAVs (Shahed & imitators); 42 attack UAVs shot down, 22 imitators lost track. Impacts in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Lipetsk Oblast: UA sources claimed targets included airfield and NLMK steel plant. RU Governor confirms 18 intercepts; reports damage to 3 private houses (windows, roofs) in an SNT from falling debris.
Bryansk Oblast: Attack on Belaia Berezka resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 1 civilian WIA, damage to building/cars (Governor). 2 other UAVs claimed intercepted separately by RU MoD.
Moscow Oblast (Chekhov District): RU sources report damage (windows) to houses in Streymilovo village. RU MoD claimed 3 intercepts in region. UA source claimed explosions near Serpukhov.
Rostov Oblast: Intercepts reported by RU MoD. Explosions claimed near Taganrog (UA source).
Tula, Oryol, Tambov, Voronezh Oblasts: Intercepts claimed by RU MoD.
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - Based on reports up to Apr 4, 05:57 UTC):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2); Reported near Novoelizavetivka (SW of Pokrovsk, ISW Apr 4); Reported entry into Nadiia (Lyman axis, ISW Apr 4); Claimed advance to western outskirts of Solone (SW of Pokrovsk, RU sources cited by UA source Apr 4).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims/reports persist across axes, notably:
Pokrovsk: Near Oleksiivka, West of Andriivka towards Oleksiivka (RU claims/Rybar).
Novopavlivsk/Vremivka: Towards Bohatyr/Komar, near Burlatske (WarGonzo claims); Towards Fedorivka from Vesele (Rybar claim). Geolocated advance along Mokri Yaly river.
Kursk/Sumy: Advancing towards Huyevo, Oleshnia; expanding control in Sumy Oblast (WarGonzo claims).
Orikhiv: Near Kamyanske (WarGonzo).
Lyman: Expanded control near Nove and Katerynivka (TASS/Marochko claim); Captured strongpoints on Lozova-Veselyi Hai line; near Novoliubivka (Rybar claims). West of Zhuravka Balka, W of Zherebets River (Previous RU claims/geolocation).
Kupyansk: Near Krasne Pershe, near Kamianka (TASS/Marochko claim); Occupied positions N of Dvorichna on W bank of Oskil River (Slyvochnyi Kapriz claim).
Maliivka (Izyum Dist.): UAV strike damaged house roof (OVA).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Night Apr 3/4 Drone Attack): Overnight drone attack resulted in 3 civilians WIA (OVA Head). Damage in Dnipro city/suburbs: infrastructure object, 2 admin buildings, private/guest houses, outbuilding, unused building, vehicles, gas pipeline, power line. Fires extinguished. Continued RU shelling/drone attacks on Nikopol District caused damage, no casualties reported (OVA). Kryvyi Rih: Day of mourning (Apr 4) for 4 KIA from Apr 2 missile strike; 11 WIA remain hospitalized.
Kyiv Oblast (Brovary district - Night Apr 3/4 Drone Attack): Falling drone debris resulted in 2 civilians WIA (men b.1963, 1987 - Mayor/KMVA/OVA). Fires/damage reported at 4 locations including service station, gas station, 2 admin buildings, auto dealership, parking lot. Destroyed: 6 cars, 2 trucks. Damaged: 12 cars, 1 bus, 8 trucks (OVA update).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h):1 civilian WIA reported from overnight drone strike (ASTRA citing OVA Head). Previous reports cited 2 WIA.
Donetsk Oblast (Occupied - RU Claims Apr 3): UA shelling wounded teenager in Horlivka; drone drop wounded man.
Claimed Daily RU Losses (Apr 4 - UGS 05:00 UTC for past 24h):+1380 personnel, +7 Tanks, +30 AFV, +38 Artillery Systems, +1 MLRS, +72 UAV OTL, +66 Vehicles/Fuel Tanks.
Claimed Specific RU Losses: 6 officers KIA (2 Captains, 4 Lieutenants) claimed by UA source (Stirlitz, unverified). Column with 42 infantry claimed destroyed near Andriivka (Butusov/46th Airmobile Bde).
