Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 4, 2025, 05:26 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 4, incorporating Ukrainian General Staff data as of Apr 4 05:00 UTC, and other sources up to Apr 4 05:26 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 156 combat engagements over the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 4). Primary Russian offensive pressure continues with extremely high intensity on the Pokrovsk axis (57 attacks) and significant intensity on the Toretsk axis (29 attacks). High levels of combat activity also persist on the Lyman (19 attacks), Kursk border (13 clashes), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Orikhiv (8 attacks), Kupyansk (5 attacks), Siversk (4 attacks), Kharkiv (4 attacks), and Prydniprovsky (2 attempts) directions. Russian sources continue to report difficult weather conditions (rain, mud) impacting ground mobility.
Russian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS): Russia conducted 1 missile strike, 104 aviation strikes (using 193 KABs), over 5600 shelling attacks (146 MLRS), and employed 2203 kamikaze drones.
Specific KAB/Air Strike Locations (UGS): Sumy Oblast (Stepek, Myropilske, Pokrovka, Petrushivka, Velyka Pysarivka, Turya, Prokhody, Krasnopillya, Ryasne, Velyky Prykil, Mykhailivske); Chernihiv Oblast (Mykolaivka); Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopil, Voskresenka); Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Sichneve, Velykomykhailivka, Malynivka, Komyshuvakha).
Ukrainian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS): Ukrainian forces targeted 9 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment), 2 UAV control points, 2 artillery pieces, and 1 command/observation post.
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:
Pokrovsk: Remains the highest intensity zone (57 RU attacks stopped - UGS). Fighting occurred near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and attacks directed towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyarivka, Oleksandropil. Russian sources previously claimed advances near Oleksiivka and Andriivka. ISW reported Ukrainian advances near Novoelizavetivka; Russian sources claimed UA advanced to western Solone. UA drone effectiveness confirmed in the area (DeepState/108th Bde video). RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Attempted RU attack near Oleksiivka met strong UA resistance.
Secondary Axes of Intense Fighting / Claimed Russian Advances:
Lyman: High activity (19 RU attacks - UGS). Fighting near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna. Previous reports indicated intense fighting and geolocated RU advances W of Zherebets River. RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Russian forces expanded zone of control near Nove and Katerynivka (west bank of Zherebets River). ISW previously reported Ukrainian entry into Nadiia.
Kursk Border / Sumy Oblast: High activity (13 clashes - UGS). RU conducted 359 arty attacks (4 MLRS), 16 air strikes (28 KABs) in the past 24h (UGS). Russian sources claim continued advances near Huyevo (Kursk Oblast). RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): RU forces advancing towards Huyevo and Oleshnia, expanding control zone in Sumy Oblast. UA forces attempting defense. RU VDV artillery previously claimed destruction of UA observation posts/ammo dump.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk: Significant activity (9 RU assaults repelled - UGS). Attacks directed towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil. Vesele & Razliv confirmed captured by RU previously. Geolocated RU advance along Mokri Yaly river previously confirmed. RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr and Komar. Tactical successes claimed near Burlatske.
Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia): High activity (8 unsuccessful RU attacks - UGS). Fighting occurred near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. Lobkove confirmed captured by RU previously. RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Combat activity reactivated near Kamyanske. Aim reported to expand zone of control near Lobkove/Shcherbaky. Zaporizhzhia OVA previously reported 311 RU strikes and 2 civilians WIA (Apr 3).
Kupyansk Axis: Moderate activity (5 RU attacks - UGS). Attacks repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka. RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Russian forces advanced near Krasne Pershe and destroyed UA fortifications near Kamianka (Kharkiv Oblast).
Belgorod Border Area:RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Heavy fighting continues near Dmytrivka and Popovka. Reports of UA force concentration in rear areas. Daily UA attempts to breach RU defense claimed unsuccessful.
Naval Situation (Black/Azov/Mediterranean Seas - as of Apr 4, 03:00 UTC):
Black Sea / Sea of Azov: No Russian warships or Kalibr carriers detected (UA Navy).
Lipetsk Oblast: UA sources claimed targets included airfield and NLMK steel plant. RU Governor confirms 18 intercepts; reports damage to 3 private houses (windows, roofs) in an SNT from falling debris.
Bryansk Oblast: Attack on Belaia Berezka resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 1 civilian WIA, damage to building/cars (Governor). 2 other UAVs claimed intercepted separately by RU MoD.
Moscow Oblast (Chekhov District): RU sources report damage (windows) to houses in Streymilovo village. RU MoD claimed 3 intercepts in region. UA source claimed explosions near Serpukhov.
Rostov Oblast: Intercepts reported by RU MoD. Explosions claimed near Taganrog (UA source).
Tula, Oryol, Tambov, Voronezh Oblasts: Intercepts claimed by RU MoD.
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - Based on reports up to Apr 4, 05:26 UTC):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2); Reported near Novoelizavetivka (SW of Pokrovsk, ISW Apr 4); Reported entry into Nadiia (Lyman axis, ISW Apr 4); Claimed advance to western outskirts of Solone (SW of Pokrovsk, RU sources cited by UA source Apr 4).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims/reports persist across axes, notably:
Pokrovsk: Near Oleksiivka, near Andriivka (RU claims).
Novopavlivsk: Towards Bohatyr/Komar, near Burlatske (WarGonzo claims); West of Vesele, near Volne Pole, Bohatyr (Previous RU claims). Geolocated advance along Mokri Yaly river.
Kursk/Sumy: Advancing towards Huyevo, Oleshnia; expanding control in Sumy Oblast (WarGonzo claims).
Orikhiv: Near Kamyanske (WarGonzo).
Lyman: Expanded control near Nove and Katerynivka (TASS/Marochko claim); West of Zhuravka Balka, W of Zherebets River (Previous RU claims/geolocation).
Kupyansk: Near Krasne Pershe, near Kamianka (TASS/Marochko claim).
Civilian Impact & Recent Casualties (Ukraine):
Kharkiv City & Oblast: Updated casualties from overnight drone attack: 4 civilians KIA, 35 WIA (incl. child) (DSNS/OVA/Mayor). Hits on residential/admin buildings caused fires (>600 sq.m). Search/rescue ongoing.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Overnight drone attack resulted in 3 civilians WIA (OVA Head). Damage in Dnipro city/suburbs: infrastructure object, 2 admin buildings, private/guest houses, outbuilding, unused building, vehicles, gas pipeline, power line. Fires extinguished. Continued RU shelling/drone attacks (Arty, Grad, UAV) on Nikopol District (Nikopol, Marhanets, Chervonohryhorivka communities) damaged 3 private houses, 5 outbuildings, power lines, gas pipeline; no casualties reported from Nikopol shelling. Kryvyi Rih: Day of mourning (Apr 4) for 4 KIA from Apr 2 missile strike. 11 WIA remain hospitalized (1 child, 1 adult critical).
Kyiv Oblast (Brovary district - Night Apr 3/4): Falling drone debris resulted in 2 civilians WIA (updated count - KMVA/RBC). Damage reported to vehicles (4 trucks, 1 car destroyed by fire, 19 others damaged) at parking lot and auto dealership building (6 cars inside damaged, fire) (KMVA/OVA).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h - as of Apr 3):2 civilians WIA reported (OVA). 311 total RU strikes reported across 10 settlements. Drone strike previous night caused shop fire, collateral damage, 1 civilian WIA (DSNS). RU sources claimed FPV strike hit power substation in Vasylivskyi district.
Donetsk Oblast (Occupied - RU Claims Apr 3): UA shelling wounded teenager in Horlivka; drone drop wounded man.
Claimed Daily RU Losses (Apr 4 - UGS 05:00 UTC for past 24h):+1380 personnel, +7 Tanks, +30 AFV, +38 Artillery Systems, +1 MLRS, +72 UAV OTL, +66 Vehicles/Fuel Tanks.
High-Level Political/Military Developments & Information Warfare:
US-Russia Contact: Reports persist on talks involving Putin's negotiator Dmitriev and US figures (Witkoff, Republican-aligned). Discussions allegedly included ceasefire terms. NBC reports Trump advisors recommend against contact until ceasefire commitment.
NATO/US Assessment (UA Situation): SACEUR Cavoli noted UA progress on manpower but stressed devastating impact if US aid ceases.
Information Warfare: RU continues narratives alleging UA war crimes (Kursk), targeting civilians (Horlivka, Belaia Berezka), hindering ceasefire efforts (Miroshnik re: UA drone attacks), and internal issues (recruitment messaging, heroization). TASS/Marochko claim UA evicting civilians in Derhachi (Kharkiv Oblast).
II. Ground Combat Operations (Axis Summary - Based on UGS Apr 4 05:00 UTC & Recent Claims)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):57 RU attacks stopped (UGS). Intense fighting near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka; attacks towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Vodyane Druhe, Kotlyarivka, Oleksandropil. UA drone units active (DeepState/108th Bde). RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Attack attempt near Oleksiivka met strong UA resistance.
Toretsk Axis:29 RU attacks (UGS). Intense fighting near Krymske, Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka. Oleksandropil previously confirmed captured by RU.
Lyman Axis:19 RU attacks (UGS). Fighting near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka; towards Novomykhailivka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna. RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Expanded control zone near Nove and Katerynivka (W. Zherebets River). UA entry into Nadiia previously reported (ISW).
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:13 clashes (UGS). Heavy RU artillery/air use (359 arty, 16 air strikes/28 KABs - UGS past 24h). RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Advancing towards Huyevo, Oleshnia; expanding control in Sumy Oblast. Fighting near Huyevo reported by multiple sources.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:9 RU assaults repelled (UGS). Attacks towards Rozlyv, Kostiantynopil. Vesele & Razliv previously confirmed captured by RU. RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Advancing towards Bohatyr, Komar; tactical success near Burlatske.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):8 unsuccessful RU attacks (UGS). Fighting near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske. Lobkove previously confirmed captured by RU. RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Activity renewed near Kamyanske.
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks (UGS). Repelled near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, towards Nova Kruhliakivka. RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Advance near Krasne Pershe, destroyed UA fortifications near Kamianka.
Siversk Axis:4 clashes (UGS). Attacks near Verkhnokamyanske; towards Ivano-Daryivka, Vyimka.
Kharkiv Axis/Border:4 RU assaults (UGS). Attacks towards Kamyanka and in Vovchansk area. Major overnight RU drone strike caused 4 KIA, 35 WIA in Kharkiv city. TASS/Marochko previously alleged UA civilian evictions in Derhachi.
Eastern/Northeastern Directions: Active Russian tactical aviation poses ONGOING THREAT of air strikes (KABs) to frontline oblasts (UA Air Force warnings).
Recent Concluded Air Events / Impacts (Ukraine):
Kharkiv City & Oblast (Night Apr 3/4): Drone strike resulted in 4 civilians KIA, 35 WIA (DSNS/OVA/Mayor). Hits on residential/admin buildings caused fires. Search/rescue continues.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Night Apr 3/4): Mass UAV attack resulted in 3 civilians WIA (OVA). Air defense intercepted 13 UAVs. Damage in Dnipro city/suburbs: infrastructure, admin buildings, houses, vehicles, gas/power lines. Shelling/drone attacks continued on Nikopol District.
Kyiv Oblast (Brovary District - Night Apr 3/4): Falling drone debris caused 2 civilians WIA (KMVA update). Fires damaged vehicles (4 trucks, 1 car destroyed; 19 others damaged) at parking lot & auto dealership (6 cars damaged inside) (KMVA/OVA/RBC). Kyiv City: 11 RU UAVs detected nearby, 5 intercepted; no damage/casualties within city limits (KMVA).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Past 24h - as of Apr 3):2 civilians WIA reported from general attacks (OVA). Previous night's drone strike caused shop fire, collateral damage, 1 civilian WIA (DSNS). RU sources claimed FPV strike hit power substation in Vasylivskyi district.
Donetsk Oblast (Occupied - RU Claims Apr 3): Shelling in Horlivka wounded 1 civilian; drone drop wounded 1 civilian.
