Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 20:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports up to Apr 3 19:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 20:56 UTC, DeepState reports up to Apr 3 15:39 UTC, NATO assessments/claims reported Apr 3, supplementary claims/reports up to Apr 3 20:57 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 111 combat engagements since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC).
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:Pokrovsk (highest intensity with 37 attacks reported earlier) and Toretsk (16 attacks reported earlier) remain the main focus of Russian ground assaults.
Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory (Kursk):
Operations continue. UGS reported 7 RU attacks repelled, 2 ongoing in Kursk Oblast earlier (as of 19:00 UTC). Russian forces conducted 10 air strikes (17 KABs) and 334 artillery attacks in the area.
RU MoD Claims (Apr 3): Claimed neutralizing AFU formations in Kursk region, inflicting over 180 personnel losses, destroying 1 IFV, 2 AFVs, 11 vehicles, 2 mortars, 5 UAV command posts, and 1 ammunition depot over the past day.
President Zelenskyy emphasized the strategic importance of the Kursk operation for protecting Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, confirming reports received on combat progress, North Korean unit tactics, and drone developments. Specific units thanked: 36th Marine Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade. He stated it was "absolutely fair to bring the war back to where it came from."
RU MoD claimed 17 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk Oblast within one hour (evening Apr 3); claim reiterated by RU sources.
RU sources continue crowdfunding appeals for equipment (vehicles) for forces operating in Kursk (Sudzha area).
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - See Section II for details):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2). Claimed liberation of Nadiia (Luhansk, near Svatove) by 3rd Assault Brigade (Apr 3, verification pending).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims persist across axes, notably RU sources claiming advances near Oleksiivka (Pokrovsk), Bohatyr/Razdolne (Novopavlivsk), Novoliubivka (Lyman), Huyevo (Kursk), Mala Shapovka/Kondrashivka (Kupyansk), Mali Shcherbaky (Orikhiv). Geolocated RU advance W of Zherebets River (Lyman) and along Mokri Yaly river (Novopavlivsk). RU sources claim advance near Kamyanske (Orikhiv Axis), storming positions SE and E of the settlement (RVvoenkor, Apr 3).
RU Destruction Claim near Nadiia: RU sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian YPR-765 APC west of Nadiia (Luhansk) via FPV drone (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Russian Air & Drone Strikes:
UGS reported 1 missile, 68 air strikes (121 KABs), and 753 kamikaze drone attacks by Russian forces since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC). ~4000 artillery/mortar attacks reported.
Kharkiv City & Oblast: Subjected to intense and ongoing Shahed drone attacks through the evening. Multiple explosions reported. Confirmed hits on residential buildings (a private house and a multi-story apartment building) in Novobavarskyi district, causing large fires. Updated Casualties (as of 20:50 UTC): 1 Civilian KIA, 29 Injured (including 1 child). 4 injured hospitalized, 1 in serious condition. Additional Shahed strike reported in Ruski Tyshky (Kharkiv Oblast), injuring 1 civilian (50 y.o. male). RU sources claim a "massive" strike (>15 impacts) targeted industrial enterprises KHAZ, FED, and Kommunar (allegedly involved in missile component production) near Zhuravlivskyi descent/Gorky Park (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Zaporizhzhia City & Oblast: Multiple explosions confirmed in different districts of Zaporizhzhia city (OVA). At least 7 Shahed drones launched at the area. Strike impact resulted in a fire at a non-residential building and damaged a warehouse in one community within the oblast; preliminary reports indicate no casualties (OVA). Ongoing drone threat (see Section III).
Dnipro City & Oblast: Explosions reported in Dnipro city (Suspilne, 20:54 UTC). Multiple Shahed drones reported en route to/over the city (see Section III).
Kyiv City & Oblast: Air raid alert declared due to Shahed drones approaching from NE. Air Defense actively engaging targets (KMVA, KOVA). (See Section III).
Other Active Drone Threats: Ongoing threats towards Poltava, Sumy, Donetsk (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka/Dobropillya), Chernihiv Oblasts (See Section III).
Other RU Strike Claims (Apr 3): RU sources claim successful drone strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk and Pavlohrad cities. Claimed strike on a drone assembly workshop in Kryvyi Rih (eastern outskirts) with secondary detonation reported (Colonelcassad, Apr 3). RU FPV drone strike claimed against UA soldiers (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Ukrainian Drone Activity / Air Defense:
Lipetsk Oblast, Russia: Air danger alert remains active. Air Defense and suppression systems engaged. Local reports of at least 6 explosions. Governor issued instructions regarding downed UAVs.
RU MoD Claims (Apr 3): Claimed interception of 1 JDAM bomb, 3 HIMARS projectiles, and 138 Ukrainian UAVs over the past day.
Russian Force Assessment & Logistics (NATO/UA Claims):
(NATO via Operativnyi ZSU - Apr 3): Russia reportedly recruiting sufficiently to cover high daily losses (~1000 KIA/WIA); RU advances slow but accepted代价; no ceasefire signs seen; NATO predicts RU will push UA forces from Kursk Oblast. Claim: UA lost 90% of captured Kursk territory. Claim: Approx. 70k RU + 11k North Korean troops present in Kursk Oblast; NK losses claimed at 5k (1.5k KIA). RU negotiation stance unchanged, believes time is advantageous. (These claims require independent verification).
(Logistics Needs): Persistent RU reliance on crowdfunding/volunteers for vehicles, radios (Azart batteries), drones noted (Dnevnik Desantnika appeal, Apr 3).
High-Level Political Developments / Information Warfare:
US-Russia Contact (Confirmed/Claims): RDIF Head Kirill Dmitriev confirmed meetings with "key members of the US administration" (TASS, Apr 3). RU CLAIM (Dmitriev via TASS/RVvoenkor): Claimed "significant progress" reached on a ceasefire agreement for Ukraine during talks with Trump administration representatives. Claimed US companies ready to replace departed European ones in Russia, discussions on resuming direct flights ongoing, and Trump admin "hears RU position" respectfully. (These claims require independent verification and are assessed with high caution).
Allied Support:South Korea announced $100M aid package (Apr 3).
Information Warfare: US government reportedly shut down satellite transmitting Radio Liberty to Russia (ASTRA/RU sources, Apr 3). Ukrainians warned of Telegram scam using fake video messages asking for money (RBC-Ukr, Apr 3). RU promoting "Drone-Con" event (Apr 11-13) focused on military drone applications. RU MoD (Apr 3) frames UA strikes on RU energy infrastructure as proof Kyiv cannot comply with agreements. RU source (Colonelcassad) shared video claiming FPV strike on UA soldiers.
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Selected Axes - UGS Report 19:00 UTC & Supplementary Claims)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):37 RU attacks initiated since start of Apr 3 (UGS, 19:00); 2 ongoing. Attacks reported near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka; and towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Oleksandropil.
RU sources claim mechanized attack towards Oleksiivka faced UA artillery, outcome unclear; probing near Tarasivka.
Lyman Axis:17 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (UGS, 19:00); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances from Ivanivka towards Nove; geolocated expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka. (UA 3rd Assault Bde claim of liberating Nadiia, if confirmed, is near this axis).RU Claim: Destruction of UA YPR-765 APC west of Nadiia (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Toretsk Axis:16 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka (UGS, 19:00). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil towards Valentynivka.
UA Success (Reported Apr 3):12th Azov Special Purpose Brigade reported repelling a significant Russian assault involving motorcycles, Chinese-made buggies, and BTRs. Combined arms defense (infantry, drones, tanks) reportedly destroyed attacking forces on approach, preventing consolidation in built-up areas (Tsaplienko, Operativnyi ZSU).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):8 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS, 19:00); 3 ongoing. Lobkove captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3, reiterated by RU MoD Apr 3). RU forces pushing towards Kamyanske. RU claims capture of UA dugout near Mali Shcherbaky. RU Claim: Advance near Kamyanske, storming large UA strongpoint SE of Kamyanske and several positions E of the settlement (RVvoenkor, Apr 3).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:7 RU attacks initiated, attempting to advance towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil (UGS, 19:00); 3 ongoing. Vesele & Razliv captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3, Vesele reiterated by RU MoD Apr 3). RU claims advance W of Vesele. Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river. RU claims advances near Bohatyr, Rozdolne, N of Burlatske. RU probing from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr.
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:7 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast, 2 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting near Sudzha. RU claims control central Huyevo, advanced ~500m. Heavy fighting near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border).
RU MoD Claim (Apr 3): Inflicted >180 UA losses, destroyed 1 IFV, 2 AFVs, 11 vehicles, 2 mortars, 5 UAV C2 posts, 1 ammo depot in Kursk operations.
(NATO claims via UA source suggest significant RU force concentration and potential intent to displace UA forces from the oblast - verification needed).
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS, 19:00); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances near Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Topoli; towards Kondrashivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove. RU claim entered Mala Shapovka, fighting in NE Kondrashivka.
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis:1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS, 19:00). RU claims strike destroyed UA tank in Molocharka near Kostiantynivka (9km from LBS). Major RU mechanized assault near Andriivka repelled earlier (morning Apr 3).
Kharkiv Axis/Border:3 RU attacks repelled near Kamyanka and Vovchansk (UGS, 19:00). Heavy fighting reported. Increased density of RU air attacks confirmed. RU Lt. surrendered with remnants near Lyptsi earlier (Apr 3).
Siversk Axis:3 RU attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and towards Ivano-Dariivka, Vyimka (UGS, 19:00).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson):2 RU attempts to approach UA positions repelled (UGS, 19:00).
Huliaipole Axis: No RU ground attacks reported. RU conducted air strikes with NAR (Novopil, Malynivka) and KABs (Komyshuvakha) (UGS, 19:00).
(General RU Claim): Colonelcassad shared FPV drone footage claiming strike on UA soldiers (Apr 3).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (Apr 3, 20:57 UTC):
Kharkiv City & Oblast:Ongoing Shahed drone attacks. Multiple explosions confirmed earlier. Confirmed hits on residential buildings in Novobavarskyi district resulted in 1 KIA, 29 WIA (1 child). **Hit
