Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 20:27 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports up to Apr 3 19:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 20:16 UTC, DeepState reports up to Apr 3 15:39 UTC, NATO assessments/claims reported Apr 3, supplementary claims/reports up to Apr 3 20:26 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 111 combat engagements since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC).
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:Pokrovsk (highest intensity with 37 attacks) and Toretsk (16 attacks) remain the main focus of Russian ground assaults.
Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory (Kursk):
Operations continue. UGS reported 7 RU attacks repelled, 2 ongoing in Kursk Oblast (as of 19:00 UTC). Russian forces conducted 10 air strikes (17 KABs) and 334 artillery attacks in the area.
President Zelenskyy emphasized the strategic importance of the Kursk operation for protecting Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, confirming reports received on combat progress, North Korean unit tactics, and drone developments (fiber-optic, "Drone Line" project). Specific units thanked: 36th Marine Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade. He stated it was "absolutely fair to bring the war back to where it came from."
RU MoD claimed 17 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk Oblast within one hour (evening Apr 3); claim reiterated by RU sources.
RU sources continue crowdfunding appeals for equipment (vehicles) for forces operating in Kursk (Sudzha area).
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - See Section II for details):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2). Claimed liberation of Nadiia (Luhansk, near Svatove) by 3rd Assault Brigade (Apr 3, verification pending).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims persist across axes, notably RU sources claiming advances near Oleksiivka (Pokrovsk), Bohatyr/Razdolne (Novopavlivsk), Novoliubivka (Lyman), Huyevo (Kursk), Mala Shapovka/Kondrashivka (Kupyansk), Mali Shcherbaky (Orikhiv). Geolocated RU advance W of Zherebets River (Lyman) and along Mokri Yaly river (Novopavlivsk). RU sources claim advance near Kamyanske (Orikhiv Axis), storming positions SE and E of the settlement (RVvoenkor, Apr 3).
RU Destruction Claim near Nadiia: RU sources claim destruction of a Ukrainian YPR-765 APC west of Nadiia (Luhansk) via FPV drone (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Russian Air & Drone Strikes:
UGS reported 1 missile, 68 air strikes (121 KABs), and 753 kamikaze drone attacks by Russian forces since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC). ~4000 artillery/mortar attacks reported.
Kharkiv: Subjected to intense and ongoing Shahed drone attacks through the evening. Multiple explosions reported. Confirmed hits on residential buildings (a private house and a multi-story apartment building) in Novobavarskyi district, causing large fires. Updated reports indicate 11 people injured, including one child (OVA Head). RU sources claim a "massive" strike (>15 impacts) targeting industrial enterprises KHAZ, FED, and Kommunar (allegedly involved in missile component production) near Zhuravlivskyi descent/Gorky Park (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Zaporizhzhia: Multiple explosions confirmed in different districts of Zaporizhzhia city (OVA). Strike impact resulted in a fire at a non-residential building in one community within the oblast; preliminary reports indicate no casualties (OVA).
Other Active Drone Threats: Ongoing threats towards Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Sumy, Donetsk (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk), Chernihiv, and Kyiv Oblasts (See Section III).
Other RU Strike Claims (Apr 3): RU sources claim successful drone strikes on industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk and Pavlohrad cities. Claimed strike on a drone assembly workshop in Kryvyi Rih (eastern outskirts) with secondary detonation reported (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Ukrainian Drone Activity: RU sources claim UA drones moving from Verbove towards Berdiansk (Zaporizhzhia, RU-occupied). Air danger alert declared in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia (Governor Artamonov, Apr 3).
Russian Force Assessment & Logistics (NATO/UA Claims):
(NATO via Operativnyi ZSU - Apr 3): Russia reportedly recruiting sufficiently to cover high daily losses (~1000 KIA/WIA); RU advances slow but accepted代价; no ceasefire signs seen; NATO predicts RU will push UA forces from Kursk Oblast. Claim: UA lost 90% of captured Kursk territory. Claim: Approx. 70k RU + 11k North Korean troops present in Kursk Oblast; NK losses claimed at 5k (1.5k KIA). RU negotiation stance unchanged, believes time is advantageous. (These claims require independent verification).
(Logistics Needs): Persistent RU reliance on crowdfunding/volunteers for vehicles, radios (Azart batteries), drones noted.
Allied Support:South Korea announced $100M aid package (Apr 3).
Information Warfare: US government reportedly shut down satellite transmitting Radio Liberty to Russia (ASTRA/RU sources, Apr 3). Ukrainians warned of Telegram scam using fake video messages asking for money (RBC-Ukr, Apr 3). RU promoting "Drone-Con" event (Apr 11-13) focused on military drone applications.
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Selected Axes - UGS Report 19:00 UTC & Supplementary Claims)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):37 RU attacks initiated since start of Apr 3 (UGS); 2 ongoing. Attacks reported near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka; and towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Oleksandropil.
RU sources claim mechanized attack towards Oleksiivka faced UA artillery, outcome unclear; probing near Tarasivka.
Lyman Axis:17 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (UGS); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances from Ivanivka towards Nove; geolocated expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka. (UA 3rd Assault Bde claim of liberating Nadiia, if confirmed, is near this axis).RU Claim: Destruction of UA YPR-765 APC west of Nadiia (Colonelcassad, Apr 3).
Toretsk Axis:16 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka (UGS). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil towards Valentynivka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):8 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS); 3 ongoing. Lobkove captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU forces pushing towards Kamyanske. RU claims capture of UA dugout near Mali Shcherbaky. RU Claim: Advance near Kamyanske, storming large UA strongpoint SE of Kamyanske and several positions E of the settlement (RVvoenkor, Apr 3).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:7 RU attacks initiated, attempting to advance towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil (UGS); 3 ongoing. Vesele & Razliv captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advance W of Vesele. Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river. RU claims advances near Bohatyr, Rozdolne, N of Burlatske. RU probing from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr.
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:7 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast, 2 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting near Sudzha. RU claims control central Huyevo, advanced ~500m. Heavy fighting near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border). (NATO claims via UA source suggest significant RU force concentration and potential intent to displace UA forces from the oblast - verification needed).
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances near Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Topoli; towards Kondrashivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove. RU claim entered Mala Shapovka, fighting in NE Kondrashivka.
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis:1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS). RU claims strike destroyed UA tank in Molocharka near Kostiantynivka (9km from LBS). Major RU mechanized assault near Andriivka repelled earlier (morning Apr 3).
Kharkiv Axis/Border:3 RU attacks repelled near Kamyanka and Vovchansk (UGS). Heavy fighting reported. Increased density of RU air attacks confirmed. RU Lt. surrendered with remnants near Lyptsi earlier (Apr 3).
Siversk Axis:3 RU attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and towards Ivano-Dariivka, Vyimka (UGS).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson):2 RU attempts to approach UA positions repelled (UGS).
Huliaipole Axis: No RU ground attacks reported. RU conducted air strikes with NAR (Novopil, Malynivka) and KABs (Komyshuvakha) (UGS).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (Apr 3, 20:27 UTC):
Kharkiv:Ongoing Shahed drone attacks. Multiple explosions confirmed. Hits confirmed on private house and multi-story apartment building in Novobavarskyi district, causing large fires. Updated: 11 injured, including 1 child (OVA). RU claims target industrial sites (KHAZ, FED, Kommunar). Threat remains active, though drones reported moving W/NW from city area earlier.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast/City:Air raid alert active. Multiple explosions confirmed in Zaporizhzhia city (OVA). Impact caused fire at non-residential building in one oblast community (OVA). Drone reported near Zaporizhzhia earlier (Vanek, 20:12 UTC).
Donetsk Oblast: Shahed drones reported heading towards Sloviansk/Kramatorsk from NE (UA AF, 19:42 UTC). Repeat KAB launches towards Donetsk Oblast reported (UA AF, 20:06 UTC). Vanek reports 6 drones crossing Kharkiv/Donetsk border towards Dnipropetrovsk (20:12 UTC).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Shahed drones reported entering from Zaporizhzhia (SE), heading NW (UA AF, 19:39 UTC). 6 drones reported en route from Donetsk/Kharkiv border area (Vanek, 20:12 UTC).
Poltava/Cherkasy Oblasts: Drones reported transiting N. Poltava towards Cherkasy Oblast (W/SW course) earlier (UA AF, 19:39 UTC). 1 drone reported heading towards/via Poltava; 1 reported N of Cherkasy heading W (Vanek, 20:12 UTC).
Sumy Oblast: Shahed drones reported in S. Sumy, course SW (UA AF, 19:39 UTC). Repeat KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast reported (UA AF, 20:06 UTC).
Chernihiv Oblast/City:UAV threat active (UA AF, 20:06 UTC). Drones reported approaching Chernihiv city from E (UA AF, 20:08 UTC). 2 drones reported near city (Vanek, 20:12 UTC).
Kyiv Oblast:UAV threat active (UA AF, 20:16 UTC).
Kharkiv Oblast (Other): Drones reported moving towards Balakliia area earlier (Nikolaevsky Vanek). 4 drones reported near Zlatopil heading W (Vanek, 20:12 UTC).
Tactical Aviation / KABs: Ongoing RU tactical aviation activity on eastern and northeastern directions. Repeat KAB launches reported towards Sumy & Donetsk Oblasts (~20:06 UTC) (UA AF).
Zaporizhzhia City/Oblast: Multiple explosions confirmed in city. Fire at non-residential building in one community due to strike.
Kursk Oblast (RU Claim): RU MoD claimed 17 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (evening Apr 3).
Kramatorsk Axis (RU Claim): Claimed successful strike destroyed UA tank in Molocharka near Kostiantynivka (Apr 3).
RU Strike Claims (Apr 3): Drones targeted industrial zones in Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad; drone workshop hit in Kryvyi Rih (Colonelcassad).
Crimea Threat Assessment (RU Claims):
Multiple RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Rybar, Dva Mayora) continue to report anticipation of imminent combined Ukrainian UAV and USV attack on Crimea. Preparations allegedly observed near Vylkove (Odesa Oblast). Attack potential linked to ongoing NATO Sea Shield exercise and recent NATO ISR activity (US, UK, French, Turkish assets noted). Claims contradict alleged RU-US-UA de-escalation "agreement" for Black Sea.
RU Claim (UAVs towards Berdiansk): RU source claims UA UAVs detected moving from Verbove area towards Berdiansk (RU-occupied Zaporizhzhia) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 3).
Activity Towards Russia:Air danger alert declared in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia (Governor Artamonov, Apr 3).
IV. Naval Situation (Black Sea / Azov Sea)
(As of 06:00 local / 03:00 UTC Apr 3 - UA Navy): No Russian warships reported present in the Black Sea or Azov Sea. 4 warships in Mediterranean (3 Kalibr carriers, up to 26 missiles).
Anticipated USV/UAV Threat (RU Claims): Reports indicate expectation of imminent Ukrainian USV/UAV attacks targeting Crimea, linked to NATO Sea Shield exercise and ISR activity (See Section III).
RU Shipbuilding (Occupied Crimea): Satellite imagery continues to confirm ongoing construction of "Ivan Rogov" LHD (Project 23900) at Zaliv shipyard, Kerch. Sea trials planned for 2027 (Defense Express/ASTRA/Tsaplienko, Apr 3).
