Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 19:57 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Apr 1 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports up to Apr 3 19:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 19:51 UTC, DeepState reports up to Apr 3 15:39 UTC, NATO assessments Apr 3, supplementary claims/reports up to Apr 3 19:56 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 111 combat engagements since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC).
Primary Russian Offensive Axes:Pokrovsk (highest intensity with 37 attacks) and Toretsk (16 attacks) remain the main focus of Russian ground assaults.
Ukrainian Operations in Russian Territory (Kursk):
Operations continue. UGS reported 7 RU attacks repelled, 2 ongoing in Kursk Oblast (as of 19:00 UTC). Russian forces conducted 10 air strikes (17 KABs) and 334 artillery attacks in the area.
President Zelenskyy emphasized the strategic importance of the Kursk operation for protecting Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, confirming reports received on combat progress, North Korean unit tactics, and drone developments (fiber-optic, "Drone Line" project). Specific units thanked: 36th Marine Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade. He stated it was "absolutely fair to bring the war back to where it came from."
RU MoD claimed 17 Ukrainian UAVs downed over Kursk Oblast within one hour (evening Apr 3); claim reiterated by RU sources.
RU sources continue crowdfunding appeals for equipment (vehicles) for forces operating in Kursk (Sudzha area).
Territorial Control Changes (Summary - See Section II for details):
Ukrainian Advance: Confirmed near Pokrovsk (ISW, Apr 2). Claimed liberation of Nadiia (Luhansk, near Svatove) by 3rd Assault Brigade (Apr 3, verification pending).
Russian Advances Claimed/Geolocated: Multiple claims persist across axes, notably RU sources claiming advances near Oleksiivka (Pokrovsk), Bohatyr/Razdolne (Novopavlivsk), Novoliubivka (Lyman), Huyevo (Kursk), Mala Shapovka/Kondrashivka (Kupyansk), Mali Shcherbaky (Orikhiv). Geolocated RU advance W of Zherebets River (Lyman) and along Mokri Yaly river (Novopavlivsk).
Russian Air & Drone Strikes:
UGS reported 1 missile, 68 air strikes (121 KABs), and 753 kamikaze drone attacks by Russian forces since the start of Apr 3 (as of 19:00 UTC). ~4000 artillery/mortar attacks reported.
Kharkiv: Subjected to intense and ongoing Shahed drone attacks through the evening. Multiple explosions reported. Confirmed hits on residential buildings (a private house and a multi-story apartment building) in Novobavarskyi district, causing large fires. Preliminary reports indicate potential casualties, including children (Mayor/ASTRA/Operativnyi ZSU). RU sources claim a "massive" strike and allege a hit on an industrial object.
Other active drone threats reported towards Zaporizhzhia city, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Donetsk (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk) Oblasts.
Ukrainian Drone Activity: RU sources claim UA drones moving from Verbove towards Berdiansk (Zaporizhzhia, RU-occupied).
Russian Force Assessment & Logistics:
(NATO - Apr 3): Russia replacing losses faster than expected; holds higher combat readiness; spring conscription targets 160k; total losses ~900k (up to 250k KIA); no major breakthrough expected soon. Ukraine resolved some manpower issues, holds strong defenses.
(Logistics Needs): Persistent RU reliance on crowdfunding/volunteers for vehicles, radios (Azart batteries), drones noted.
Allied Support:South Korea announced $100M aid package (Apr 3).
Information Warfare: US government reportedly shut down satellite transmitting Radio Liberty to Russia (ASTRA/RU sources, Apr 3). Ukrainians warned of Telegram scam using fake video messages asking for money (RBC-Ukr, Apr 3). RU promoting "Drone-Con" event (Apr 11-13) focused on military drone applications.
II. Ground Combat Operations & Territorial Changes (Selected Axes - UGS Report 19:00 UTC & Supplementary Claims)
Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity):37 RU attacks initiated since start of Apr 3 (UGS); 2 ongoing. Attacks reported near Novokalynove, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Novoserhiivka, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Andriivka; and towards Romanivka, Oleksiivka, Oleksandropil.
RU sources claim mechanized attack towards Oleksiivka faced UA artillery, outcome unclear; probing near Tarasivka.
Lyman Axis:17 RU attacks near Hrekivka, Nove, Katerynivka, and towards Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (UGS); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances from Ivanivka towards Nove; geolocated expanded bridgehead W of Zherebets River near Novoliubivka. (UA 3rd Assault Bde claim of liberating Nadiia, if confirmed, is near this axis).
Toretsk Axis:16 RU attacks near Dachne, Druzhba, Dyliivka, Toretsk, Leonidivka (UGS). Oleksandropil captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advances W of Oleksandropil towards Valentynivka.
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia):8 RU attacks near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske (UGS); 3 ongoing. Lobkove captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU forces pushing towards Kamyanske. RU claims capture of UA dugout near Mali Shcherbaky.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis:7 RU attacks initiated, attempting to advance towards Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil (UGS); 3 ongoing. Vesele & Razliv captured by RU forces (Confirmed Apr 3). RU claims advance W of Vesele. Geolocated RU advance >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river. RU claims advances near Bohatyr, Rozdolne, N of Burlatske. RU probing from Rozlyv towards Bohatyr.
Kursk Border Area / Sumy Oblast:7 RU attacks repelled by UA forces in Kursk Oblast, 2 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting near Sudzha. RU claims control central Huyevo, advanced ~500m. Heavy fighting near Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border).
Kupyansk Axis:5 RU attacks near Zahryzove, Petropavlivka, and towards Nova Kruhliakivka (UGS); 2 ongoing. RU claims advances near Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Topoli; towards Kondrashivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove. RU claim entered Mala Shapovka, fighting in NE Kondrashivka.
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar Axis:1 RU assault repelled towards Predtechyne (UGS). RU claims strike destroyed UA tank in Molocharka near Kostiantynivka (9km from LBS). Major RU mechanized assault near Andriivka repelled earlier (morning Apr 3).
Kharkiv Axis/Border:3 RU attacks repelled near Kamyanka and Vovchansk (UGS). Heavy fighting reported. Increased density of RU air attacks confirmed. RU Lt. surrendered with remnants near Lyptsi earlier (Apr 3).
Siversk Axis:3 RU attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and towards Ivano-Dariivka, Vyimka (UGS).
Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson):2 RU attempts to approach UA positions repelled (UGS).
Huliaipole Axis: No RU ground attacks reported. RU conducted air strikes with NAR (Novopil, Malynivka) and KABs (Komyshuvakha) (UGS).
III. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Current Air Threats (Apr 3, 19:57 UTC):
Kharkiv:Ongoing Shahed drone attacks. Multiple explosions confirmed. Hits confirmed on private house and multi-story apartment building in Novobavarskyi district, causing large fires. Emergency services responding. Potential casualties, including children, reported. Threat remains active (UA AF, OVA Head, Mayor, RBC-Ukr, ASTRA). Drones reported moving W from N of Kharkiv, and NW from E of Kharkiv (UA AF).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:Air raid alert active. Multiple (at least 8) Shahed drones reported heading towards/near Zaporizhzhia city from SE and SW (UA AF, OVA, Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Donetsk Oblast: Shahed drones reported heading towards Sloviansk/Kramatorsk from NE (UA AF, Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Shahed drones reported entering from Zaporizhzhia (SE), heading NW (UA AF, Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Poltava/Cherkasy Oblasts: Shahed drones reported transiting N. Poltava towards Cherkasy Oblast (W/SW course) (UA AF, Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Sumy Oblast: Shahed drones reported in S. Sumy, course SW (UA AF).
Kharkiv Oblast (Other): Drones reported moving towards Balakliia area (Nikolaevsky Vanek).
Tactical Aviation / KABs: Ongoing RU tactical aviation activity on eastern and northeastern directions. Repeated KAB launches reported towards Sumy & Donetsk Oblasts earlier (~19:10 UTC) (UA AF).
Recent Strikes/Interceptions:
Kharkiv City/Oblast: Multiple Shahed drone impacts confirmed, including residential buildings (See Current Threats).
Kursk Oblast (RU Claim): RU MoD claimed 17 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (evening Apr 3).
Kramatorsk Axis (RU Claim): Claimed successful strike destroyed UA tank in Molocharka near Kostiantynivka (Apr 3).
Crimea Threat Assessment (RU Claims):
Multiple RU sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Rybar) report anticipation of imminent combined Ukrainian UAV and USV attack on Crimea. Preparations allegedly observed near Vylkove (Odesa Oblast). Attack potential linked to ongoing NATO Sea Shield exercise and recent NATO ISR activity.
RU Claim (UAVs towards Berdiansk): RU source claims UA UAVs detected moving from Verbove area towards Berdiansk (RU-occupied Zaporizhzhia) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 3).
IV. Naval Situation (Black Sea / Azov Sea)
(As of 06:00 local / 03:00 UTC Apr 3 - UA Navy): No Russian warships reported present in the Black Sea or Azov Sea. 4 warships in Mediterranean (3 Kalibr carriers, up to 26 missiles).
Anticipated USV/UAV Threat (RU Claims): Reports indicate expectation of imminent Ukrainian USV/UAV attacks targeting Crimea (See Section III).
RU Shipbuilding (Occupied Crimea): Satellite imagery reportedly shows ongoing construction of "Ivan Rogov" LHD (Project 23900) at Zaliv shipyard, Kerch. Sea trials planned for 2027 (Tsaplienko, Apr 3).
