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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-03 07:46:55Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-03 07:16:35Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 07:45 UTC

(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 30 - Apr 3, including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports as of Apr 3 05:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 06:43 UTC, and intelligence/claims received up to Apr 3 07:45 UTC)

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 216 combat engagements in the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 3). Friction points persist on Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, and Kursk border axes.
  • Russian Offensive Focus:
    • Primary Axes: Concentration towards Pokrovsk (UGS: 80 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; NEW RU CLAIM (Kotenok): RU forces ("Center" Group) entered outskirts of Kotlyarivka and Troitske; RU armor engaged UA near Oleksiivka, deployed assault troops) and Toretsk (UGS: 28 RU attacks; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU claim of Oleksandropil capture confirmed Apr 3; RU claim flag raised at Oleksandropil council building, continued RU push towards Valentinovka, west of Panteleimonivka, east towards Tarasovka; Rybar reports urban fighting near Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk).
    • Secondary Axes: Sustained pressure towards Lyman (UGS: 21 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms fighting; NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora): 2 UA POWs captured from 3rd Assault Brigade ("Azov") near Nadiia, claim UA fired on them), Kursk border area (UGS: 28 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms cross-border activity; Rybar reports fighting for Huyevo ongoing; NEW RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika/Rybar): UA attempting to fortify near Guyevo/Gornal, using monastery; RU striking UA reserves; RU claim terrain loss here critical for UA Sumy defense), Novopavlivsk direction (UGS: 13 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU claim of Vesele capture confirmed Apr 3; RU forces advanced >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river, took positions in southern Vesele outskirts [Geolocated claim: 47.926144, 36.773695]; RU forces advancing towards Bohatyr/Komar, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka; NEW RU CLAIM (Voin DV): Drone strikes by 1461 MRR, 5th Tank Bde, 14th Spetsnaz Bde ("Vostok" Group) on UA forces, Shakhtarsk direction), Orikhiv direction (UGS: 12 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms fighting/RU advances; RU claim of Lobkove capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Kotenok): RU forces ("Dnepr" Group) advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove after capturing Lobkove; fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky), Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar (UGS: 6 RU assaults repelled; Rybar reports urban fighting; RU claim fortified area occupied in southern Chasiv Yar), Huliaipole (UGS: 5 RU attacks repelled), Siversk (UGS: 5 RU attacks repelled), Kupyansk (UGS: 4 RU attacks repelled), Kharkiv (UGS: 2 RU attacks repelled), Prydniprovsky (UGS: 5 RU attempts repelled; RU 61st Naval Infantry Brigade destroyed UA UAV control point on right bank).
  • Territorial Changes (Recent Assessments - UGS Apr 3, ISW Apr 2, Geolocated Footage & New Claims/Confirmations Apr 3):
    • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed: Near Pokrovsk (ISW).
    • Russian Advances Claimed/Confirmed:
      • Near Toretsk (incl. geolocated capture of Oleksandropil).
      • Near Pokrovsk (ISW); NEW RU CLAIM (Kotenok): Entered outskirts of Kotlyarivka and Troitske.
      • Near Velyka Novosilka / Novopavlivsk: Confirmed capture of Vesele; Advance >1.5km along Mokri Yaly river and southern outskirts of Vesele (Geolocated).
      • SE of Bohdanivka (Andriivka direction - geolocated).
      • Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia): Confirmed capture by RU forces; NEW RU CLAIM (Kotenok): Advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove.
      • NEW UA CLAIM (DeepState): RU forces advanced in Piatykhatky and Andriivka.
      • RU CLAIM: Fortified area occupied in southern Chasiv Yar.
      • RU CLAIM: Advances towards Kamyanske (Zaporizhzhia).
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
    • Active defense maintained, repelling numerous assaults, notably 80 attacks on Pokrovsk direction and 28 on Kursk direction (UGS).
    • NEW UA Counter-Intelligence: Deputy Director of educational institution in Sumy Oblast detained, suspected of providing RU forces with info on UA troop locations/movements near Kursk border (OGP/SBU).
    • NEW UA Drone Strikes: Video released (Apr 3, 421st Sep Bn) showing destruction of RU equipment (tanks, BMPs, MT-LBs). Video released (Apr 3, 59th Bde) showing drone attack on individual RU soldier (Pokrovsk direction). Shadow unit released video (Apr 3) of nighttime heavy bomber drone strikes on RU shelters/trenches.
    • NEW UA Naval Development: Minehunters "Cherkasy" and "Chernihiv" completed NATO Level 1 evaluation, confirming interoperability (UA Navy).
    • NEW UA CLAIM (Southern Axis Losses Inflicted - Past 24h): Southern Defense Forces claim inflicting following RU losses: 158 personnel, 9 artillery systems, 1 ATGM, 1 "Murom-M" system, 7 EW systems, 35 vehicles/armor, 12 motorcycles, 5 boats, 3 ATVs, 2 Starlink antennas, 5 UAV control antennas, 10 comms antennas, 2 generators, 1 Orlan UAV, 2 Supercam UAVs, 2 field depots, 1 fuel storage. Destroyed: 67 shelters/dugouts, 1 observation post, 1 C2 post.
    • Key Engagements Repelled/Ongoing (UGS, Apr 3 05:00 UTC): Pokrovsk (80), Kursk (28), Toretsk (28), Lyman (21), Novopavlivsk (13), Orikhiv (12), Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar (6), Huliaipole (5), Siversk (5), Prydniprovsky (5), Kupyansk (4), Kharkiv (2).
  • Claimed Losses (Cumulative/Daily):
    • Russian (UGS, Apr 3 for past 24h): ~1390 personnel, 6 tanks, 22 AFVs, 49 artillery, 1 MLRS, 92 UAVs, 88 vehicles/tanks.
    • Ukrainian (RU Claims, Apr 3): Losses near Vesele, Popovka/Demidovka, Veselovka (Sumy); Equipment losses Kupyansk; Strongpoint S. Chasiv Yar; AGS-17 crew (Kupyansk); UAV CP (Kherson); NEW: 2 POWs (3rd Aslt Bde) near Nadiia (Lyman).
  • Significant Incidents:
    • CONFIRMED Russian Aircraft Loss (Apr 2): Tu-22M3 crash (Irkutsk Oblast), 1 pilot KIA. Pilot reportedly steered plane away from homes (TASS).
    • Civilian Casualties/Damage (UA Reports, Apr 2-3):
      • Kryvyi Rih: 4 KIA, 17 WIA (Apr 2 missile strike update).
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Overnight UAV): Damage in Pavlohrad, Mezhivska community. No casualties.
      • Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 2-3): 5 WIA in Kharkiv city (drone); 1 WIA in Derhachi (drone); 1 WIA in Andriivka (shelling). Extensive damage to residential/infrastructure.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 539 RU strikes (24h), damage reported, no new casualties.
    • Civilian Casualties/Damage (RU Claims, Apr 3): 3 WIA Nova Kakhovka; 3 WIA Horlivka; 1 WIA Donetsk (mine); Injuries in Belgorod Oblast (drones); School damaged Mala Lepetykha; NEW: Belgorod State Agrarian University building damaged (overnight UA attack).
  • Logistics & Personnel Needs:
    • Ukrainian: Significant FPV drone demand (3,370 requested for 95 units - Sternenko); Field cots needed for frontline units (RBC-Ukr).
    • Russian: Azart radio batteries needed (Dnevnik Desantnika); NEW: UAZ pickup, satcom, drone detectors, "Tair" devices needed for assault units on Pokrovsk direction (Dva Mayora). NEW RU Recruitment: Ad seeks contract personnel for security organs (FSB) in Moscow Oblast (up to 35yo) and "new regions" (up to 45yo), offering ~70k / ~160k RUB monthly pay respectively.
  • Internal Russian Military Issues (NEW - ASTRA Report): RU soldiers (unit 41885) allegedly deserted in occupied Donetsk Oblast, citing commander ("Terek") threats of execution for refusing suicidal missions, lack of supplies/support, non-evacuation of wounded, lack of pay. Soldiers reportedly hiding. (Indicates potential severe morale/command/logistics issues).
  • Political / Strategic Developments:
    • NATO Role Discussion (FT/RBC-Ukr/RVvoenkor): Reports indicate European discussion on potentially using NATO command structures/ISR assets (AWACS) for deploying European forces to Ukraine (peacekeepers).
    • US Tariffs Impact (Operativnyi ZSU/RBC-Ukr): Ukrainian MoE assessing impact of new 10% US tariff; notes trade imbalance ($874M exp vs $3.4B imp 2024); sees negotiation possibility.
    • German Assessment (Operativnyi ZSU/DW): German intel expects continued RU interference attempts (cyber, disinfo, espionage, sabotage).
    • NEW International Support (EU/Kallas): EU countries reportedly providing over 50% of Ukraine's current ammunition needs (relative to 2M shell target stated by Zelenskyy).
    • NEW US Economic Measures (Dva Mayora/TASS): Trump administration declares US economic emergency, imposes tariffs citing trade imbalances and need to boost domestic production. Exemptions for some goods noted. (Potential indirect impact on global markets/aid flows).

II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

  • Overnight Strikes (Apr 2-3 - UA Air Force Update, 06:00 UTC):
    • Russia launched 39 Shahed UAVs + unspecified decoys.
    • UA Air Defense destroyed 28 Shaheds over N/E Ukraine. 7 decoys lost locationally (no impact).
    • Confirmed Impact Areas: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Damage to civilian infrastructure/residences in Kharkiv & Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts; casualties reported in Kharkiv Oblast (1 WIA Derhachi, 5 WIA Kharkiv city from previous evening). RU sources claim strikes on Sloviansk, Zaporizhzhia city.
    • NEW RU CLAIM (UAV Intercepts - Kotenok): RU MoD claims downing 23 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over 6 regions (Bryansk-6, Oryol-5, Kursk-5, Kaluga-4, Belgorod-2, Smolensk-1).
  • UGS Summary (Past 24h - 05:00 UTC): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 85 aviation strikes (123 KABs), employed 2,377 kamikaze drones, executed nearly 6,400 shelling attacks (107 MLRS).
  • ACTIVE THREATS (Apr 3, ~07:45 UTC):
    • Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: Ongoing RU tactical aviation activity (NE/E directions). Threat persists for frontline oblasts. KAB launches reported towards Sumy (06:21 UTC) & Donetsk (06:29 UTC).
    • Reconnaissance UAV Threat: Active RU recon UAVs over Sumy (06:36 UTC) & Chernihiv (06:43 UTC).
  • Recent Claims/Reports:
    • NEW RU Counter-Drone Ops (Colonelcassad/61st Naval Inf Bde): Report claims increased use of RU "interceptor drones" (FPV type) by 61st Naval Inf Bde to down UA UAVs (recon: Fury, Leleka, Shark; strike: Darts, Baba Yaga). Video purportedly shows day/night intercepts using contact/proximity kills.
    • RU Strike Claims: Kupyansk (tank/strongpoints); Kharkiv industrial targets (KHAZ, FED, Kommunar - unverified, conflicts UA reports); Petropavlivka (mortar); RLS destroyed (Spetsnaz); UAV CP destroyed (Kherson, right bank); Mortar destroyed (Spetsnaz); Tank destroyed (Lipetsk dir.); Popovka dam strike (Belgorod); 2S7M Malka ops shown (Central Group).

III. Ground Combat Operations Update (Selected Axes)

  • Pokrovsk Direction: Highest intensity (UGS: 80 RU attacks repelled). NEW RU CLAIM (Kotenok): RU forces ("Center" Group) entered outskirts of Kotlyarivka and Troitske; RU armor engaged UA near Oleksiivka, deployed assault troops. NEW UA CLAIM (59th Bde): Drone attack on individual RU soldier video released. NEW RU Need: Fundraising for assault unit equipment (UAZ, satcom, drone detectors).
  • Toretsk Direction: High intensity (UGS: 28 RU attacks repelled). RU confirmed capture of Oleksandropil; RU claims pushing towards Valentynivka, Tarasovka. Urban fighting near Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk claimed (Rybar).
  • Lyman Direction: High intensity (UGS: 21 RU attacks repelled). NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora): 2 UA POWs (3rd Aslt Bde "Azov") captured near Nadiia.
  • Kursk Border Direction: High intensity (UGS: 28 RU attacks repelled). Fighting near Huyevo ongoing (Rybar). NEW RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika/Rybar): UA fortifying near Guyevo/Gornal, using monastery; RU striking reserves. RU assesses UA defense here critical for Sumy Oblast. NEW UA Counter-Intel: Suspected collaborator detained in Sumy Oblast providing intel on UA forces near border.
  • Novopavlivsk Direction: Significant activity (UGS: 13 RU attacks repelled). RU confirmed capture of Vesele. Geolocated UA positions occupied S. of Vesele along Mokri Yaly river. RU pushing towards Bohatyr/Komar, Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka. NEW RU CLAIM (Voin DV): Drone strikes by "Vostok" Group units (1461 MRR, 5 Tnk Bde, 14 Spets Bde) on UA forces, Shakhtarsk direction.
  • Orikhiv Direction: High activity (UGS: 12 RU attacks repelled). RU confirmed capture of Lobkove. NEW RU CLAIM (Kotenok): RU forces ("Dnepr" Group) advancing N/NW from Stepove/Lobkove. NEW UA CLAIM (DeepState): RU forces advanced in Piatykhatky.
  • Andriivka Area (Bakhmut direction): NEW UA CLAIM (DeepState): RU forces advanced in Andriivka.
  • Prydniprovsky Direction (Kherson): UGS: 5 RU attempts repelled. RU claim destruction of UA UAV control point on right bank (61st Naval Inf Bde).
Previous (2025-04-03 07:16:35Z)

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