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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-03 07:16:35Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-03 06:46:50Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 07:15 UTC

(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 30 - Apr 3, analysis including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports as of Apr 3 05:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 06:43 UTC, and new intelligence/claims received up to Apr 3 07:15 UTC)

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 216 combat engagements in the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 3). Key friction points persist on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, and Kursk border axes.
  • Russian Offensive Focus:
    • Primary Axes: Concentration towards Pokrovsk (UGS: 80 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU Perspective (Basurin): Discusses prospects for taking Pokrovsk) and Toretsk (UGS: 28 RU attacks; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU claim of Oleksandropil capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): Flag raised at Oleksandropil council building, continued RU push towards Valentinovka, west of Panteleimonivka, and east towards Tarasovka; Rybar reports urban fighting near Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk).
    • Secondary Axes: Sustained pressure towards Lyman (UGS: 21 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms fighting), Kursk border area (UGS: 28 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms cross-border activity; Rybar reports fighting for Huyevo ongoing; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): UA counterattack repelled near Veselovka (Sumy); RU forces advancing towards Oleshnia (Kursk); fighting ongoing near Basivka (Sumy); NEW RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): UA forces digging in near Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod), 2 small UA attacks repelled overnight; RU CLAIM (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): UA using monastery near Sudzha/Gornal for defense; UA attempting to fortify near Guyevo/Gornal; RU striking UA reserves), Novopavlivsk direction (UGS: 13 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU claim of Vesele capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): Vesele fully captured by RU 5th Tank Bde/36th CAA, cleared >200 structures (1.5km deep, >1km wide), claimed >70 UA KIA (141st Mech Bde), 3 AFV, 8 vehicles destroyed; Rybar reports fighting for Shevchenko/Vesele; NEW RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): RU forces advanced near Vesele and are moving towards Bohatyr/Komar; NEW RU CLAIM (Voin DV): RU forces advancing towards Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka; NEW RU CLAIM (Slevochniy Kapriz): RU forces advanced >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river, took positions in southern outskirts of Vesele [Geolocated claim: 47.926144, 36.773695]), Orikhiv direction (UGS: 12 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms fighting/RU advances; RU claim of Lobkove capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): RU Airborne captured Lobkove, potential UA counter actions expected; NEW RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Fighting ongoing near Lobkove, Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky; RU CLAIM (Rybar): Fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky), Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar (UGS: 6 RU assaults repelled; Rybar reports urban fighting; NEW RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): RU forces occupied fortified area in southern Chasiv Yar after destroying UA strongpoint), Huliaipole (UGS: 5 RU attacks repelled), Siversk (UGS: 5 RU attacks repelled), Kupyansk (UGS: 4 RU attacks repelled; NEW RU CLAIM (MoD): T-90M (Zapad Group, 25th CAA) destroyed AGS-17 crew & platoon stronghold), Kharkiv (UGS: 2 RU attacks repelled), Prydniprovsky (UGS: 5 RU attempts repelled; NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora/Rybar): RU 61st Naval Infantry Brigade destroyed UA UAV control point on right bank).
    • Belgorod Border Area (RU Claims - WarGonzo/Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): Fighting ongoing near Dmytrivka and Popovka/Demydovka. RU claims UA attempts to penetrate defenses were unsuccessful; UA reinforcements disrupted near Popovka. Attempted RU ODAB-1500 strike on Popovka dam reported (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika) to complicate UA logistics. NEW RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): UA forces digging in near Popovka/Demydovka, 2 small UA attacks repelled overnight. Civilian injuries reported from UA FPV drone strikes in Murom, Masychovo, Luhovka, Stepnoye (Belgorod Oblast). Partial destruction of Belgorod State Agrarian University (BelGAU) building reported after overnight UA attack.
  • Territorial Changes (Recent Assessments - UGS Apr 3, ISW Apr 2, Geolocated Footage & New Claims/Confirmations Apr 3):
    • Ukrainian Advance Confirmed: Near Pokrovsk (ISW).
    • Russian Advances Confirmed/Claimed:
      • Near Toretsk (including geolocated capture of Oleksandropil; RU claim flag raised at council building).
      • Near Pokrovsk.
      • Near Velyka Novosilka / Novopavlivsk:
        • Confirmed capture of Vesele; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): Fully captured by RU 5th Tank Bde/36th CAA, specifics provided on area cleared/UA losses.
        • NEW CLAIM (Slevochniy Kapriz): Advance >1.5km along Mokri Yaly river and occupation of positions in southern outskirts of Vesele (Geolocated claim: 47.926144, 36.773695).
        • Rybar claims fighting for Shevchenko; claims liberation of most of Rozivka (likely Rozlyv).
        • NEW CLAIM (WarGonzo): Advance confirmed near Vesele, pushing towards Bohatyr/Komar.
        • NEW CLAIM (Voin DV): Advancing towards Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka.
      • SE of Bohdanivka (Andriivka direction - geolocated).
      • Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Confirmed capture by RU forces (Rybar claims RU Airborne); RU sources claim this secures flank for operations near Kamyanske and Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky; Rybar claims advances towards Kamyanske; NEW RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Fighting ongoing near Lobkove.
      • Potentially NW of Rozlyv (Andriivka direction - RU claim).
      • NEW RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Fortified area occupied in southern Chasiv Yar. Needs verification.
      • RU Claim (Rybar/WarGonzo): Advances towards Kamyanske and "Tselinny Uchastok" nature reserve (Zaporizhzhia); fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky.
      • RU Claim (WarGonzo): Advances towards Oleshnia (Kursk); fighting ongoing near Basivka (Sumy).
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
    • Ukrainian Defence Forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous assaults across multiple axes, notably 80 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction and 28 on the Kursk direction (UGS). Active counter-offensive actions noted by ISW near Velyka Novosilka and Donetsk Oblast general areas remain relevant.
    • NEW UA CLAIM (Drone Strikes - 421st Separate Battalion): Video released (Apr 3) showing systemic destruction of RU equipment (tanks, BMPs, MT-LBs) via drone strikes. (Sponsored by Sternenko community).
    • NEW UA CLAIM (Drone vs Soldier - 59th Brigade): Video released showing drone attack on individual RU soldier on the Pokrovsk direction.
    • NEW UA Naval Development: Minehunters "Cherkasy" and "Chernihiv" completed NATO Level 1 evaluation, confirming interoperability (UA Navy/UGS).
    • NEW UA Counter-Intelligence: Deputy Director of an educational institution in Sumy Oblast detained, suspected of providing RU forces with information on UA troop locations and movements near the Kursk border (OGP/SBU).
    • NEW UA CLAIM (Tactical Success - Kurakhove Direction): Reports (Shef Hayabusa, Apr 3 morning) indicate Ukrainian forces destroyed 7 units of Russian equipment and inflicted infantry losses during a failed Russian column assault near Kurakhove. The 46th Airmobile Brigade confirmed its presence and operations on this axis via released documentary footage (Apr 3). (Note: RU source Voin DV released purported captured UA reports alleging the fall of Rozliv & Vesele led to front destabilization and weak defensive lines near Kurakhove, potentially indicating challenges despite claimed tactical success).
    • NEW UA CLAIM (Drone Strikes): Shadow unit released video (Apr 3) showing nighttime heavy bomber drone strikes targeting RU shelters and trenches.
    • Key Engagements Repelled/Ongoing (Based on UGS, Apr 3 05:00 UTC): Pokrovsk (80 RU attacks), Kursk (28 RU attacks), Toretsk (28 RU attacks), Lyman (21 RU attacks), Novopavlivsk (13 RU attacks), Orikhiv (12 RU attacks), Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar (6 RU attacks), Huliaipole (5 RU attacks), Siversk (5 RU attacks), Prydniprovsky (5 RU attempts), Kupyansk (4 RU attacks), Kharkiv (2 RU attacks). Fighting remains ongoing. No shelling reported overnight in Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol districts (Vilkul, Apr 3).
    • Claimed Russian Losses (UGS, Apr 3 for past 24h): ~1390 personnel, 6 tanks, 22 AFVs, 49 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 92 UAVs (OTL), 0 cruise missiles, 88 vehicles/fuel tanks, 0 special equipment. (Cumulative claimed RU losses 24.02.22 - 03.04.25: Personnel ~770,310+, Tanks 10,798+, AFVs 17,975+, Artillery 20,241+, UAVs ~31,597+, etc. - UGS Apr 3).
    • Claimed Ukrainian Losses (RU Claims, Apr 3): Near Vesele (>70 KIA from 141st Mech Bde - Rybar); Near Popovka/Demidovka (disrupted reinforcements, 2 groups of 5-6 KIA overnight - Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika); Near Veselovka (Sumy) (repelled counterattack - Rybar); Equipment losses on Kupyansk direction via drone strikes (Dva Mayora); Strongpoint destroyed in southern Chasiv Yar (TASS/Marochko); AGS-17 crew & stronghold destroyed (RU MoD - Zapad Group); NEW: UAV control point destroyed on right bank Kherson (61st Naval Inf Bde - Dva Mayora/Rybar); NEW: 2 POWs captured from 3rd Assault Brigade ("Azov") near Nadiia (Lyman direction), claimed UA forces fired on them to prevent surrender (Dva Mayora/Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
  • Significant Incidents:
    • CONFIRMED Russian Aircraft Loss (Apr 2): Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crash in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia (claimed technical malfunction), 1 pilot KIA. Power restored to most affected settlements (TASS, Apr 3). Pilot reportedly steered plane away from residential areas (TASS/Governor).
    • Civilian Casualties/Damage (UA Reports, Apr 2-3):
      • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - UPDATE): Following Apr 2 missile strike, casualty figures confirmed at 4 KIA, 17 WIA (11 hospitalized, incl. 1 child; 1 adult serious). Damage to 9 apartment buildings, post office, gas station, admin buildings, cars, garages (Lysak/Vilkul/RBC-Ukr/ASTRA). Aid station operational.
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Overnight UAV Attack): Damage reported in Pavlohrad (windows in admin building, 2 apartment blocks) and Mezhivska community (Synelnykivskyi district - building damage). No casualties reported from these strikes (Lysak/Vilkul). (Corroborated by UA AF report of impacts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
      • Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 2-3 - Kharkiv OVA, Apr 3):
        • Kharkiv City (Drone Attacks): Multiple impacts reported overnight and previous evening (RU source Rybar claims 14 Gerans). 5 civilians WIA (incl. 10yo child) from drone hit on 16-story building (Apr 2). Drone impact near private house caused window damage. Drone impact caused grass fire (2 ha) near runway. UAV debris damaged 6 homes. Another drone impact caused tree fire, damaged private home. Drone hit stairs of underground passage. Ongoing assessment. (Corroborated by UA AF report of impacts in Kharkiv Oblast).
        • Derhachi: Private house damaged, 57-year-old man WIA.
        • Cherkaska Lozova: UAV debris fire (3 sq m).
        • Andriivka (Velykoburlutska TG): Shelling damaged car, 9 private houses, local cultural center; 59-year-old man WIA. Separate shelling caused grass/reed fire (2 ha).
        • Sadovod (Velykoburlutska TG): Shelling damaged house windows, garage, outbuilding.
        • Oleksandrivka (Zolochivska TG): Shelling damaged private house.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 539 RU strikes (incl. 3 air, 294 UAVs, 25 MLRS, 217 arty) on 8 settlements in past 24h; 8 reports of damage to homes/apartments, no new casualties reported in this period (Zaporizhzhia OVA). RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Zaporizhzhia city.
      • Donetsk Oblast: Impacted by overnight RU drone attacks (UA AF). RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Sloviansk. Specifics pending.
      • Kyiv: No air raid alerts reported overnight (KMVA, Apr 3).
    • Civilian Casualties (RU Claims, Apr 3 - Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): 3 civilians WIA in Nova Kakhovka (occupied Kherson) from shelling. 3 civilians WIA (incl. 2 teens, 2004, 2006, 2007 DOB) in Horlivka (occupied Donetsk) from UAV explosive drop on car. 1 civilian WIA (1993 DOB) in occupied Donetsk from PFM-1 mine. Civilians injured by UA drone strikes in Murom, Masychovo, Luhovka, Stepnoye (Belgorod Oblast). School damaged in Mala Lepetykha (occupied Kherson). Shelling reported in Aleshky, Kakhovka, Hola Prystan, Hornostaivka, Dnipriany, Kozachi Laheri, Korsunka, Mala Lepetykha (occupied Kherson). NEW: Damage to Belgorod State Agrarian University (BelGAU) building from overnight UA attack (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • Non-Combat Event (Kryvyi Rih): Planned industrial explosion scheduled for 12:00 local time, Apr 3, at ArcelorMittal quarry (Vilkul).
  • Logistics & Equipment Needs:
    • Ukrainian FPV Drone Demand: Significant requirement highlighted by volunteer report (Sternenko, Apr 3) requesting 3,370 FPV drones for 95 units, indicating potential supply pressure or high operational consumption rate.
    • NEW Ukrainian Field Cots Need: Volunteer/media appeal (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 3) for funds for field cots for frontline units, including 109th Bde, 143rd Bde, 1st OShB "Da Vinci Wolves".
    • NEW Russian Comms Needs: Fundraising appeal noted for Azart radio station batteries (Dnevnik Desantnika).
    • NEW Russian Equipment Needs (Pokrovsk): Fundraising appeal noted for UAZ pickup truck, satellite comms, drone detectors, and "Tair" devices for assault units on Pokrovsk direction (Dva Mayora).
  • Internal Russian Military Issues (NEW - ASTRA Report): Several RU soldiers (unit 41885) reportedly deserted in occupied Donetsk Oblast, alleging their commander (Vyacheslav Boyarkin "Terek") threatened execution ("obnuleniye") for refusing potentially suicidal missions (sent without adequate supplies/support). Soldiers claim issues with non-evacuation of wounded, being forced back into combat injured, lack of pay/benefits, and psychological pressure from command/fellow soldiers. Soldiers are reportedly hiding in occupied Donetsk. (Indicates potential severe morale, command, and logistics problems within specific RU units).
  • Political / Strategic Developments:
    • NATO Role Discussion (FT/RBC-Ukr/RVvoenkor): Reports indicate European discussion about potentially using NATO command structures, ISR assets (like AWACS), for deploying European forces to Ukraine, possibly as peacekeepers. Seen as a way to indirectly involve the US.
    • US Tariffs Impact (Operativnyi ZSU/RBC-Ukr): Ukrainian Ministry of Economy assessing impact of new 10% US base tariff. Notes Ukraine's export/import balance with US ($874M exp vs $3.4B imp in 2024, key exports: cast iron, pipes). Acknowledges potential impact on small producers but sees possibility for negotiation.
    • German Assessment (Operativnyi ZSU/DW): German domestic intelligence expects continued Russian attempts to influence political processes via cyberattacks, disinformation, espionage, and sabotage, aiming for outcomes favorable to the Kremlin. Notes past attempts in Moldova, Romania, and current campaigns in Poland.

II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

  • Overnight Strikes (Apr 2-3 - UPDATE UA Air Force, Apr 3 06:00 UTC; RU Claims - Rybar):

    • Russia attacked with 39 Shahed-type UAVs and unspecified decoy drones launched from Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Kursk (Russia). RU source Rybar claims 14 Gerans targeted Kharkiv.
    • Ukrainian Air Defense (Zenith missile troops, EW units, mobile fire groups) destroyed 28 Shahed-type UAVs over northern and eastern Ukraine.
    • 7 decoy drones were "locationally lost" with no reported negative consequences.
    • Confirmed Impact Areas: Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
      • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Details (Lysak/Vilkul): Damage in Pavlohrad (admin building, apartment blocks) and Mezhivska community (Synelnykivskyi district - buildings). No casualties reported. (Initial report of 10 UAVs downed over Dnipropetrovsk likely part of the overall 28 confirmed).
      • Kharkiv Oblast Details (Kharkiv OVA): Multiple impacts in Kharkiv city (residential buildings, private homes, near runway, underground passage) and Derhachi, Cherkaska Lozova. At least 1 WIA in Derhachi. Previous day's attack injured 5 in Kharkiv city.
      • Donetsk Oblast Details: RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Sloviansk.
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Zaporizhzhia city.
    • NEW RU CLAIM (UAV Intercepts - Voenkor Kotenok): RU MoD claims downing 23 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over 6 regions: Bryansk (6), Oryol (5), Kursk (5), Kaluga (4), Belgorod (2), Smolensk (1).

  • UGS Summary (Past 24h - as of 05:00 UTC): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 85 aviation strikes (using 123 KABs), employed 2,377 kamikaze drones, and executed nearly 6,400 shelling attacks (107 MLRS).

  • Air Strikes Targeted (UGS, past 24h): Sumy Oblast (Turya, Uhroidy, Mykhailivske, Petrushivka, Myropilske); Kharkiv Oblast (Kozacha Lopan); Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Yablunivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hrodivka, Udachne, Kotliarivka, Novopavlivka, Krasna Poliana, Iskra, Odradne, Novopil); Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaliznychne, Huliaipole, Novodarivka).

  • ACTIVE THREATS (Apr 3, ~07:15 UTC):

    • Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: UA Air Force warnings of ongoing Russian tactical aviation activity on northeastern and eastern directions. Threat of air-launched weapons persists for frontline oblasts. KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (06:21 UTC) and Donetsk Oblast (06:29 UTC).
    • Reconnaissance UAV Threat: UA Air Force warnings of active Russian reconnaissance UAVs over Sumy Oblast (06:36 UTC) and Chernihiv Oblast (06:43 UTC), potential spotters for strikes. Possible Air Defense activity in Chernihiv Oblast.

  • Russian Air/Missile/Drone Threats & Strikes (Recent Claims/Reports):

    • Claimed Strike Successes (RU Sources, Apr 3):
      • Kupyansk Direction (NEW - Dva Mayora): Drone strikes by 352nd Motor Rifle Regt claimed destroying UA equipment (tank w/ ammo detonation) and targeting strongpoints.
      • Kharkiv Industrial Targets (NEW - RU Claim, Dnevnik Desantnika): RU sources claim overnight strikes targeted Kharkiv Aviation Plant (KHAZ), FED plant, and "Kommunar" plant. Needs verification; conflicts with official UA reports focusing on civilian/infrastructure damage.
      • (Petropavlivka area, Kupyansk): Destruction of UA 82mm mortar (Colonelcassad).
      • (Unspecified): Destruction of UA Radar Station (RLS) by Spetsnaz drone (Apr 3 report).
      • (Kherson, Right Bank): Destruction of UA UAV control point by D-30 artillery ("Dnepr" Group) (TASS); Confirmed by Dva Mayora/Rybar claim (61st Naval Infantry Bde).
      • (Unspecified): Destruction of UA mortar by Spetsnaz drone (51st CAA).
      • (Lipetsk direction, Kharkiv border): Destruction of UA tank ("North" Group) (Colonelcassad).
      • (Belgorod, near Popovka): Claimed ODAB-1500 strike on dam to disrupt UA logistics (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika). Video released purportedly showing strike.
      • NEW (Central Group of Forces): Images released showing 2S7M Malka 203mm SPG crews in operation (Colonelcassad).

  • Other Activity:

    • Israeli Strikes in Syria (Apr 2 night - RVvoenkor): Reported Israeli airstrikes targeted airbases/warehouses in Damascus suburbs, Hama, and Homs provinces. Claimed targets controlled by HTS group and posed threat to Israeli civilians. (Geopolitical context, potential distraction).
    • USMC FPV Unit Formation (Arkhangel Spetsnaza): Report notes US Marine Corps forming its first dedicated FPV drone operator unit, indicating adoption of lessons learned from Ukraine conflict.
Previous (2025-04-03 06:46:50Z)

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