Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 3, 2025, 06:45 UTC
(Derived from intelligence reports dated Mar 30 - Apr 3, analysis including ISW reporting as of Apr 2, Ukrainian General Staff reports as of Apr 3 05:00 UTC, UA Air Force updates up to Apr 3 06:43 UTC, and new intelligence/claims received up to Apr 3 06:45 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 216 combat engagements in the past 24 hours (as of 05:00 UTC Apr 3). Key friction points persist on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, and Kursk border axes.
Russian Offensive Focus:
Primary Axes: Concentration towards Pokrovsk (UGS: 80 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU Perspective (Basurin): Discusses prospects for taking Pokrovsk) and Toretsk (UGS: 28 RU attacks; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU claim of Oleksandropil capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): Flag raised at Oleksandropil council building, continued RU push towards Valentinovka, west of Panteleimonivka, and east towards Tarasovka; Rybar reports urban fighting near Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk).
Secondary Axes: Sustained pressure towards Lyman (UGS: 21 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms fighting), Kursk border area (UGS: 28 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms cross-border activity; Rybar reports fighting for Huyevo ongoing; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): UA counterattack repelled near Veselovka (Sumy); RU forces advancing towards Oleshnia (Kursk); fighting ongoing near Basivka (Sumy); NEW RU CLAIM (Dnevnik Desantnika): UA forces digging in near Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod), 2 small UA attacks repelled overnight; RU CLAIM (Rybar): UA using monastery near Sudzha for defense), Novopavlivsk direction (UGS: 13 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms RU pressure/advances; RU claim of Vesele capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar):Vesele fully captured by RU 5th Tank Bde/36th CAA, cleared >200 structures (1.5km deep, >1km wide), claimed >70 UA KIA (141st Mech Bde), 3 AFV, 8 vehicles destroyed; Rybar reports fighting for Shevchenko/Vesele; NEW RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): RU forces advanced near Vesele and are moving towards Bohatyr/Komar; NEW RU CLAIM (Voin DV): RU forces advancing towards Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka; NEW RU CLAIM (Slevochniy Kapriz): RU forces advanced >1.5 km along Mokri Yaly river, took positions in southern outskirts of Vesele [Geolocated claim: 47.926144, 36.773695]), Orikhiv direction (UGS: 12 RU attacks repelled; ISW confirms fighting/RU advances; RU claim of Lobkove capture confirmed Apr 3; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): RU Airborne captured Lobkove, potential UA counter actions expected; NEW RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Fighting ongoing near Lobkove, Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky; RU CLAIM (Rybar): Fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky), Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar (UGS: 6 RU assaults repelled; Rybar reports urban fighting; NEW RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): RU forces occupied fortified area in southern Chasiv Yar after destroying UA strongpoint), Huliaipole (UGS: 5 RU attacks repelled), Siversk (UGS: 5 RU attacks repelled), Kupyansk (UGS: 4 RU attacks repelled; NEW RU CLAIM (MoD): T-90M (Zapad Group, 25th CAA) destroyed AGS-17 crew & platoon stronghold), Kharkiv (UGS: 2 RU attacks repelled), Prydniprovsky (UGS: 5 RU attempts repelled; NEW RU CLAIM (Dva Mayora/Rybar): RU 61st Naval Infantry Brigade destroyed UA UAV control point on right bank).
Belgorod Border Area (RU Claims - WarGonzo/Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika): Fighting ongoing near Dmytrivka and Popovka/Demydovka. RU claims UA attempts to penetrate defenses were unsuccessful; UA reinforcements disrupted near Popovka. Attempted RU ODAB-1500 strike on Popovka dam reported (Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika). UA strikes on RU rear areas reported.
Near Toretsk (including geolocated capture of Oleksandropil; RU claim flag raised at council building).
Near Pokrovsk.
Near Velyka Novosilka / Novopavlivsk:
Confirmed capture of Vesele; NEW RU CLAIM (Rybar): Fully captured by RU 5th Tank Bde/36th CAA, specifics provided on area cleared/UA losses.
NEW CLAIM (Slevochniy Kapriz): Advance >1.5km along Mokri Yaly river and occupation of positions in southern outskirts of Vesele (Geolocated claim: 47.926144, 36.773695).
Rybar claims fighting for Shevchenko; claims liberation of most of Rozivka (likely Rozlyv).
NEW CLAIM (WarGonzo): Advance confirmed near Vesele, pushing towards Bohatyr/Komar.
NEW CLAIM (Voin DV): Advancing towards Zelene Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Voskresenka.
SE of Bohdanivka (Andriivka direction - geolocated).
Lobkove (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Confirmed capture by RU forces (Rybar claims RU Airborne); RU sources claim this secures flank for operations near Kamyanske and Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky; Rybar claims advances towards Kamyanske; NEW RU CLAIM (WarGonzo): Fighting ongoing near Lobkove.
Potentially NW of Rozlyv (Andriivka direction - RU claim).
NEW RU CLAIM (TASS/Marochko): Fortified area occupied in southern Chasiv Yar. Needs verification.
RU Claim (Rybar/WarGonzo): Advances towards Kamyanske and "Tselinny Uchastok" nature reserve (Zaporizhzhia); fighting ongoing near Shcherbaky/Mali Shcherbaky.
RU Claim (WarGonzo): Advances towards Oleshnia (Kursk); fighting ongoing near Basivka (Sumy).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
Ukrainian Defence Forces maintain active defense, repelling numerous assaults across multiple axes, notably 80 attacks on the Pokrovsk direction and 28 on the Kursk direction (UGS). Active counter-offensive actions noted by ISW near Velyka Novosilka and Donetsk Oblast general areas remain relevant.
NEW UA CLAIM (Tactical Success - Kurakhove Direction): Reports (Shef Hayabusa, Apr 3 morning) indicate Ukrainian forces destroyed 7 units of Russian equipment and inflicted infantry losses during a failed Russian column assault near Kurakhove. The 46th Airmobile Brigade confirmed its presence and operations on this axis via released documentary footage (Apr 3). (Note: RU source Voin DV released purported captured UA reports alleging the fall of Rozliv & Vesele led to front destabilization and weak defensive lines near Kurakhove, potentially indicating challenges despite claimed tactical success).
NEW UA CLAIM (Drone Strikes): Shadow unit released video (Apr 3) showing nighttime heavy bomber drone strikes targeting RU shelters and trenches.
Claimed Ukrainian Losses (RU Claims, Apr 3): Near Vesele (>70 KIA from 141st Mech Bde - Rybar); Near Popovka/Demidovka (disrupted reinforcements - Rybar); Near Veselovka (Sumy) (repelled counterattack - Rybar); Equipment losses on Kupyansk direction via drone strikes (Dva Mayora); Strongpoint destroyed in southern Chasiv Yar (TASS/Marochko); AGS-17 crew & stronghold destroyed (RU MoD - Zapad Group).
Significant Incidents:
CONFIRMED Russian Aircraft Loss (Apr 2):Tu-22M3 strategic bomber crash in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia (claimed technical malfunction), 1 pilot KIA. Power restored to most affected settlements (TASS, Apr 3).
Civilian Casualties/Damage (UA Reports, Apr 2-3):
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - UPDATE): Following Apr 2 missile strike, casualty figures confirmed at 4 KIA, 17 WIA (11 hospitalized, incl. 1 child; 1 adult serious). Damage to 9 apartment buildings, post office, gas station, admin buildings, cars, garages (Lysak/Vilkul/RBC-Ukr/ASTRA). Aid station operational.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Overnight UAV Attack): Damage reported in Pavlohrad (windows in admin building, 2 apartment blocks) and Mezhivska community (Synelnykivskyi district - building damage). No casualties reported from these strikes (Lysak/Vilkul). (Corroborated by UA AF report of impacts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
Kharkiv Oblast (Apr 2-3 - Kharkiv OVA, Apr 3):
Kharkiv City (Drone Attacks): Multiple impacts reported overnight and previous evening (RU source Rybar claims 14 Gerans). 5 civilians WIA (incl. 10yo child) from drone hit on 16-story building (Apr 2). Drone impact near private house caused window damage. Drone impact caused grass fire (2 ha) near runway. UAV debris damaged 6 homes. Another drone impact caused tree fire, damaged private home. Drone hit stairs of underground passage. Ongoing assessment. (Corroborated by UA AF report of impacts in Kharkiv Oblast).
Derhachi: Private house damaged, 57-year-old man WIA.
Cherkaska Lozova: UAV debris fire (3 sq m).
Andriivka (Velykoburlutska TG): Shelling damaged car, 9 private houses, local cultural center; 59-year-old man WIA. Separate shelling caused grass/reed fire (2 ha).
Sadovod (Velykoburlutska TG): Shelling damaged house windows, garage, outbuilding.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 539 RU strikes (incl. 3 air, 294 UAVs, 25 MLRS, 217 arty) on 8 settlements in past 24h; 8 reports of damage to homes/apartments, no new casualties reported in this period (Zaporizhzhia OVA). RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Zaporizhzhia city.
Donetsk Oblast: Impacted by overnight RU drone attacks (UA AF). RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Sloviansk. Specifics pending.
Kyiv: No air raid alerts reported overnight (KMVA, Apr 3).
Civilian Casualties (RU Claims, Apr 3 - Rybar/Dnevnik Desantnika):3 civilians WIA in Nova Kakhovka (occupied Kherson) from shelling. 3 civilians WIA (incl. 2 teens, 2004, 2006, 2007 DOB) in Horlivka (occupied Donetsk) from UAV explosive drop on car. 1 civilian WIA (1993 DOB) in occupied Donetsk from PFM-1 mine. Civilians injured by UA drone strikes in Murom, Masychovo, Luhovka, Stepnoye (Belgorod/Kursk Oblasts). School damaged in Mala Lepetykha (occupied Kherson). Shelling reported in Aleshky, Kakhovka, Hola Prystan, Hornostaivka, Dnipriany, Kozachi Laheri, Korsunka, Mala Lepetykha (occupied Kherson).
Non-Combat Event (Kryvyi Rih): Planned industrial explosion scheduled for 12:00 local time, Apr 3, at ArcelorMittal quarry (Vilkul).
Logistics & Equipment Needs:
Ukrainian FPV Drone Demand: Significant requirement highlighted by volunteer report (Sternenko, Apr 3) requesting 3,370 FPV drones for 95 units, indicating potential supply pressure or high operational consumption rate.
NEW Ukrainian Field Cots Need: Volunteer/media appeal (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 3) for funds for field cots for frontline units, including 109th Bde, 143rd Bde, 1st OShB "Da Vinci Wolves".
NEW Russian Comms Needs: Fundraising appeal noted for Azart radio station batteries (Dnevnik Desantnika).
II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity
Overnight Strikes (Apr 2-3 - UPDATE UA Air Force, Apr 3 06:00 UTC):
Russia attacked with 39 Shahed-type UAVs and unspecified decoy drones launched from Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Kursk (Russia). RU source Rybar claims 14 Gerans targeted Kharkiv.
Ukrainian Air Defense (Zenith missile troops, EW units, mobile fire groups) destroyed 28 Shahed-type UAVs over northern and eastern Ukraine.
7 decoy drones were "locationally lost" with no reported negative consequences.
Confirmed Impact Areas:Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Details (Lysak/Vilkul): Damage in Pavlohrad (admin building, apartment blocks) and Mezhivska community (Synelnykivskyi district - buildings). No casualties reported. (Initial report of 10 UAVs downed over Dnipropetrovsk likely part of the overall 28 confirmed).
Kharkiv Oblast Details (Kharkiv OVA): Multiple impacts in Kharkiv city (residential buildings, private homes, near runway, underground passage) and Derhachi, Cherkaska Lozova. At least 1 WIA in Derhachi. Previous day's attack injured 5 in Kharkiv city.
Donetsk Oblast Details:RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Sloviansk.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:RU sources (Rybar) report overnight strikes on Zaporizhzhia city.
UGS Summary (Past 24h - as of 05:00 UTC): Russia conducted 2 missile strikes, 85 aviation strikes (using 123 KABs), employed 2,377 kamikaze drones, and executed nearly 6,400 shelling attacks (107 MLRS).
Air Strikes Targeted (UGS, past 24h): Sumy Oblast (Turya, Uhroidy, Mykhailivske, Petrushivka, Myropilske); Kharkiv Oblast (Kozacha Lopan); Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Yablunivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Malynivka, Nova Poltavka, Hrodivka, Udachne, Kotliarivka, Novopavlivka, Krasna Poliana, Iskra, Odradne, Novopil); Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaliznychne, Huliaipole, Novodarivka).
ACTIVE THREATS (Apr 3, ~06:45 UTC):
Tactical Aviation / KAB Threat: UA Air Force warnings of ongoing Russian tactical aviation activity on northeastern and eastern directions. Threat of air-launched weapons persists for frontline oblasts. KAB launches reported towards Sumy Oblast (06:21 UTC) and Donetsk Oblast (06:29 UTC).
Reconnaissance UAV Threat: UA Air Force warnings of active Russian reconnaissance UAVs over Sumy Oblast (06:36 UTC) and Chernihiv Oblast (06:43 UTC), potential spotters for strikes. Possible Air Defense activity in Chernihiv Oblast.
Kupyansk Direction (NEW - Dva Mayora): Drone strikes by 352nd Motor Rifle Regt claimed destroying UA equipment (tank w/ ammo detonation) and targeting strongpoints.
Kharkiv Industrial Targets (NEW - RU Claim, Dnevnik Desantnika): RU sources claim overnight strikes targeted Kharkiv Aviation Plant (KHAZ), FED plant, and "Kommunar" plant. Needs verification; contradicts official UA reports focusing on civilian/infrastructure damage.
(Petropavlivka area, Kupyansk): Destruction of UA 82mm mortar (Colonelcassad).
(Unspecified): Destruction of UA Radar Station (RLS) by Spetsnaz drone (Apr 3 report).
(Kherson, Right Bank): Destruction of UA UAV control point by D-30 artillery ("Dnepr" Group) (TASS); Confirmed by Dva Mayora/Rybar claim (61st Naval Infantry Bde).
(Unspecified): Destruction of UA mortar by Spetsnaz drone (51st CAA).
(Lipetsk direction, Kharkiv border): Destruction of UA tank ("North" Group) (Colonelcassad).
(Belgorod, near Popovka): Claimed ODAB-1500 strike
