Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 13:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Pokrovsk Direction continues to be the epicenter of ground combat. Significant Russian pressure persists on Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk (incl. Konstantinovka area), Kupyansk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones.
Air & Missile Threats: Persistent and active.
Russian tactical aviation active launching KABs in Sumy Oblast (12:18 UTC) and Donetsk Oblast (12:48 UTC).
Missile Danger warning issued for Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC).
Reports of explosion in Kharkiv (13:11 UTC), preliminary information indicates a drone strike impacting a multi-story building in the Kyivskyi district.
Russian Strike Campaign: Continues at a high tempo.
Overnight strikes targeted Kharkiv (at least 14 drones, hitting industrial zone, damaging homes), Sumy Oblast (KABs, drones, artillery), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (artillery, explosion near Pavlohrad).
Russian sources claim additional overnight strikes in Odesa Oblast (Radisne), Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk, Zolotyi Kolodiz, Sloviansk), and strikes on UAV control centers/positions in Druzhkivka and Dyliivka.
Russian sources claim a Ukrainian drone struck a gas distribution station in Svatove (Luhansk Oblast), disrupting service to over 11,000 residents (13:03 UTC).
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes & Actions:
Evidence suggests a successful Ukrainian HIMARS strike targeted Russian helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-28) in the Belgorod Oblast. Russian sources acknowledge the strike and damage.
Ukrainian GUR "Prymary" unit reports successful drone strikes against multiple high-value Russian assets in occupied Crimea, including radars (9S32 "Imbir", "Podlyot-K1", "Nebo-SVU", MR-10M1E) and a transport-tug boat at Cape Tarkhankut.
Conviction secured against an individual providing Russian forces with Ukrainian troop location data in Kharkiv Oblast (Aug 2024).
Russian Ground Objectives: Primary offensive effort remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction. Efforts continue to expand the bridgehead northeast of Lyman. Russian sources claim capture of Oleksandropol (Rozivka) on the Toretsk direction and tactical gains on the Novopavlivsk direction (near Veseloye, Volne Pole). Russian MoD claims tactical improvements across multiple sectors.
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Intense fighting reported. Russian MoD claims ongoing offensive actions against Ukrainian forces near the Sumy border. Russian sources claim fighting shifting towards the Sumy direction and significant Ukrainian losses. Persistent challenges for Russian forces due to Ukrainian drone activity are reported by Russian sources. Russian government allocates additional funds (16 billion RUB) for residents who lost housing in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Manpower & Logistics: Emphasis on veteran support during Presidential visit to Dnipro, focusing on rehabilitation (TitaniUA project expansion planned), integration programs, adaptive sports, social housing, and streamlining bureaucratic processes. Formation of an all-female UAV unit ("Harpii") announced, recruitment ongoing. Over 8,000 former convicts reported to have joined the AFU. Efforts to improve drone capabilities continue, with intent to increase FPV allocation to the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian Manpower & Logistics: Significant logistical challenges persist, particularly on the Pokrovsk southern flank, due to Ukrainian drone interdiction forcing infantry rotations on foot. Use of specialized vehicles (RKhM-4 near Chasiv Yar) and motorcycles (Novopavlivsk direction) may indicate equipment shortages or tactical adaptation. Russian leadership (Dep MoD Yevkurov) emphasizes the importance of soldiers understanding the ideological reasons for fighting. Medical supplies (kits, backpacks) delivered to 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment.
International & Political Context:
Ukrainian official (Podolyak) advocates for a US strategic shift from containment to achieving Russia's defeat via harsher economic measures (tariffs, sanctions on shadow fleet) and increased strikes on RU military objects.
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski reiterates Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, citing concerns it would provide Russia with propaganda leverage.
Czech Republic plans >€100M investment in Ukrainian hospitals via Ukraine Facility program.
II. Air, Missile & Drone Threats/Strikes
Active Ukrainian Air Force Alerts/Events (as of 13:15 UTC):
Russian tactical aviation launching KABs in Sumy Oblast (12:18 UTC).
Missile Danger warning active for Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC).
Report of explosions in Kharkiv City (13:11 UTC), drone strike reported, preliminary information indicates impact on a multi-story building (Kyivskyi district).
Russian tactical aviation launching KABs in Donetsk Oblast (12:48 UTC).
Confirmed Ukrainian Strikes:
Belgorod Oblast (RU): Video evidence and Russian commentary confirm a Ukrainian strike (reportedly HIMARS M30A2) damaged Russian helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-28) at an airfield.
Occupied Crimea: GUR "Prymary" unit drone strikes reported destroying/damaging: RLS 9S32 "Imbir", RLS "Podlyot-K1", RLS "Nebo-SVU" + generator, BRLS MR-10M1E, and a transport-tug boat (Cape Tarkhankut).
Recent Russian Strikes (Claimed & Confirmed):
Kharkiv: Hit by at least 14 drones overnight (Apr 1-2), impacting industrial zone, damaging ~20 homes. 8 civilians treated for stress. (RU claims targeted 92nd Mech Bde facilities). New explosion reported 13:11 UTC Apr 2, preliminary report of drone hitting multi-story building.
Sumy Oblast: Intense KAB strikes ongoing (nearly 50 Apr 1-morning Apr 2, launch reported 12:18 UTC Apr 2), plus overnight drone/artillery. FPV hit substation.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Artillery damaged power line near Nikopol. Explosion reported near Pavlohrad (RU claim: Geran strike).
Svatove (Luhansk Oblast - RU CLAIM): Multiple RU sources claim Ukrainian drone strike hit gas distribution station, damaging equipment (hydrate prevention unit), causing fire, and cutting gas supply to >11,000 residents (13:03 UTC). RU frames this as violation of alleged agreements.
Druzhkivka (Donetsk Oblast - RU CLAIM): RU sources claim strike hit UA UAV command post (company UBLAS) and battalion location, causing casualties (up to 9 KIA, 8 WIA) (13:11 UTC). This follows earlier RU claims of overnight strike on UAV C2 in the same town.
Dyliivka (Donetsk Oblast - RU CLAIM): RU source (NMR DNR) claims artillery (Msta-B, M46) strikes by 238th & 132nd Brigades destroyed UA UAV control points and transport (13:01 UTC).
Dobropillya (Donetsk Oblast - RU CLAIM): Claimed strike on UA 5th Brigade supply point, destroying 4 fuel trucks (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Popovka Area (Kharkiv/Belgorod Border - RU CLAIM): Video purports to show FAB-3000 strike destroying a dam allegedly used by Ukrainian forces for reinforcement transit (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2).
Other RU Claims (Overnight): Strikes claimed on Radisne (Odesa Oblast), Kramatorsk, Zolotyi Kolodiz, Sloviansk (Donetsk Oblast), Ivot (Sumy Oblast - Iskander), Kherson direction (FAB strike).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 2): Strikes on UAV assembly enterprise, UAV pilot training center, ammunition depots, and troop concentrations in 139 areas. Claimed downing of 2 JDAMs, 1 Uragan MLRS projectile, 177 UAVs (94 over RU territory).
Ongoing Drone Activity: Both sides continue extensive use of FPV and reconnaissance drones.
UA drone strike on RU soldier transporting ammunition ("camel") near Luhansk (Butusov Plus video).
UA drone ("Phoenix" unit) dropping munitions on RU soldier (Operatyvnyi ZSU video).
RU FPV drone allegedly destroyed UA FlyEye recon UAV in Sumy Oblast (Colonelcassad video).
RU drones mining a road, claiming subsequent hits on UA Oshkosh L-ATV and M-113 (Voin DV video).
RU FPV drone allegedly ramming UA recon drone near border (TASS/MoD).
RU source claims FPV drone destroyed UA tank on Liptsy direction (Kharkiv border area) (Poddundy video).
III. Ground Combat Operations
Pokrovsk Direction (Highest Intensity):
Remains the primary Russian offensive focus.
Russian sources report persistent severe logistical challenges for Russian forces on the southern flank (near Zelene, Dachenske, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Shevchenko) due to dominant Ukrainian drone activity impacting resupply. Uspenivka and Shevchenko remain contested.
Ukrainian sources indicate intent to increase FPV drone deployments to this critical axis.
Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim Russian forces ("Otvazhnye" - Central Group) are repelling Ukrainian counter-attacks near Shevchenko.
RU MoD (Tsentr Group) claims taking more advantageous lines and positions.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Zones:
Intense fighting reported. Russian sources claim fighting is shifting towards the Sumy direction.
Russian MoD (Sever Group) claims offensive actions and strikes against Ukrainian units near the Sumy region border (Prokhody, Turya, Malaya Rybitsa, etc.). Claims >95 UA losses in Belgorod direction, >150 in Kursk/Sumy axis over 24h. (Basurin claims >71.5k cumulative UA losses in Kursk ops, 150 past day).
RU sources (Basurin) claim engagements near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk) and Basovka, Bilovody, Volodomyrivka, etc. (Sumy). Claim destruction of 2 UA UAV control points.
RU 40th Marine Brigade claimed Grad MLRS strikes on UA positions. RU claim FPV drones destroyed 2 UA pickups near border.
Interview with a Russian soldier (ASTRA) fighting in Kursk Oblast confirms significant difficulties caused by Ukrainian air/drone superiority.
Lyman Direction:
High activity.
ISW assesses Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead NE of Lyman, potentially preparing for future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city.
RU MoD (Zapad Group) claims improving tactical situation and inflicting losses near Yampol, Krasny Liman.
Toretsk Direction (incl. Konstantinovka area):
High activity.
RU CLAIM: 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motor Rifle Division) captured Oleksandropol (Rozivka), following the capture of Panteleimonivka (RVvoenkor, Apr 2). Map indicates claimed pressure towards Valentynivka. RU claims significant UA KIA/POW.
RU MoD (Yug Group) claims inflicting losses near Aleksandro-Kalinovo.
RU sources claim artillery strikes destroyed UA UAV control points and transport in Dyliivka (near Toretsk).
Novopavlivsk Direction:
Significant activity.
UA CLAIM: 3rd Mech Bn (Presidential Bde) & 31st Mech Bde repelled Russian armored assault (3 BMPs, infantry, motorcycles) in foggy conditions (Butusov Plus video).
RU CLAIM (Vostok Group): Continued advance into enemy defenses. Claimed advances near Veseloye (600m front, 200m deep) and Volne Pole (200x200m area). Claimed FPV destroyed UA equipment west of Rozlyv. Claimed artillery/FPV destroyed UA reinforcement group near Bohatyr and destroyed a UA mortar. (Voin DV, Apr 2).
Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Direction):
Fighting continues. Ukrainian FPV strike (24th Mech Bde) destroyed a Russian squad transported in a rare RKhM-4 CBRN vehicle, potentially indicating APC shortages.
Siversk Direction: High activity. RU MoD (Yug Group) claims inflicting losses near Verkhnekamenskoye.
Kupyansk Direction: Significant activity. RU MoD (Zapad Group) claims improving tactical situation and inflicting losses near Kamenka.
Orikhiv/Huliaipole Directions: Moderate activity. RU MoD (Vostok Group) claims inflicting losses near Zelenoye Pole, Temirovka. Environmental factor: Increased tick activity reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, posing health risk to personnel.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Kherson): Lower intensity. RU MoD (Dnepr Group) claims taking more advantageous positions and engaging UA forces near Tyaginka, Antonovka.
IV. Logistics, Manpower, Support & Other Notes
Ukrainian Logistics/Manpower/Support:
Veteran Support: Presidential visit to Dnipro emphasized support for wounded soldiers (>40k treated in Dnipro, 96% survival rate reported) and veterans. Key initiatives include expansion of TitaniUA project (rehab/integration), development of veteran support app, focus on social housing, adaptive sports, and addressing bureaucratic hurdles hindering veteran contributions to defense efforts.
New Unit: Formation of all-female UAV unit "Harpii" announced, recruitment open. Unit commander "DShK" cited as veteran of Revolution of Dignity and recent special operations.
Personnel: Over 8,000 former convicts recruited into AFU ranks. Anti-corruption probe into MoD food procurement (2022-23) ongoing. Counter-intelligence success in Kharkiv Oblast (conviction for treason).
Drone Focus: Stated intent to bolster FPV capabilities on the Pokrovsk front.
Medical: Czech Republic pledges >€100M investment in Ukrainian hospital modernization via Ukraine Facility program. Public health warning issued for Zaporizhzhia Oblast regarding increased tick activity and associated disease risks (Lyme, encephalitis).
Persistent reports confirm severe logistical difficulties on the Pokrovsk southern flank due to Ukrainian drone interdiction.
Anecdotal evidence (soldier interview, Kursk aid package) points to morale/logistics issues and impact of UA operations on the Kursk border front.
Use of non-standard vehicles (RKhM-4, motorcycles, dirt bikes by Spetsnaz element) may indicate shortages or tactical adaptations.
Reported use of drones for remote road mining operations. Video shows medical supplies (kits, backpacks) being delivered to 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment elements operating from fortified positions.
Emphasis from leadership (Dep MoD Yevkurov) on soldiers understanding ideological reasons for fighting.
Propaganda/IW themes include alleged mistreatment of RU POWs, alleged surrender of demoralized UA soldiers (Dnevnik Desantnika video), claims of UA targeting civilian infrastructure (Svatove gas station), commentary on Russian opposition figures potentially joining RU forces (Sternenko image interpretation).
International Support/Political:
UK plans transfer of 8-10 Puma HC.2 helicopters.
"Coalition of the Willing" meeting set for Apr 10, Ramstein format for Apr 11 in Brussels.
Proposed US bipartisan secondary sanctions aim to increase economic pressure on Russia. Ukrainian official (Podolyak) urges US shift towards ensuring Russian defeat via economic pressure and enabling more strikes on RU military targets.
Poland reiterates it will not deploy troops to Ukraine (FM Sikorski).
Commemoration: Ukraine marked 3rd anniversary of Kyiv Oblast liberation (Apr 2). Russia marked 2nd anniversary of propagandist Tatarsky's death. Russia/Belarus marked "Day of Unity".
