Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 12:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. The Pokrovsk Direction continues to be the most active front. Significant Russian pressure persists on Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk (incl. Konstantinovka area), Kupyansk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones.
Air Threats: Active threats persist.
High-speed target detected moving towards Dnipro from the east (12:03 UTC).
Russian tactical aviation active on the northeastern axis, threat of air-launched weapon strikes to frontline oblasts (12:13 UTC).
KAB Launches reported by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast (12:18 UTC).
Missile Danger warning issued for Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC).
Russian Strike Campaign: Ongoing at high tempo. Overnight strikes targeted Kharkiv (at least 14 drones, hitting industrial zone, damaging homes), Sumy Oblast (KABs, drones, artillery), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (artillery, explosion near Pavlohrad). Russian sources additionally claim overnight strikes in Odesa Oblast (Radisne), Donetsk Oblast (Kramatorsk, Zolotyi Kolodiz, Sloviansk), and a strike on a UAV control center in Druzhkivka.
Ukrainian Counter-Strikes:
Evidence suggests a successful Ukrainian HIMARS strike targeted Russian helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-28) in the Belgorod Oblast. Russian sources acknowledge the strike and damage.
Ukrainian GUR "Prymary" unit reports successful drone strikes against multiple high-value Russian assets in occupied Crimea, including: RLS 9S32 "Imbir" (radar), RLS "Podlyot-K1" (radar), RLS "Nebo-SVU" (radar) and its generator, BRLS MR-10M1E (radar), and a transport-tug boat at Cape Tarkhankut.
Video emerged of a Ukrainian drone strike targeting a Russian soldier transporting ammunition near Luhansk.
Russian Ground Objectives: Primary offensive effort remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction. Russian forces continue efforts to expand their bridgehead northeast of Lyman. Claimed advances reported on the Toretsk and Novopavlivsk directions. Russian MoD claims tactical improvements across multiple sectors.
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Intense fighting continues. Russian MoD claims ongoing offensive actions against Ukrainian forces operating near the Sumy border. Russian sources claim significant Ukrainian losses and report fighting shifting towards the Sumy direction. Ukrainian drone superiority in the area remains a challenge for Russian forces.
Ukrainian Manpower & Logistics: Focus on veteran support highlighted during Presidential visit to Dnipro, including rehabilitation, integration programs (TitaniUA), and addressing bureaucratic issues. Formation of an all-female UAV unit ("Harpii") announced. Over 8,000 former convicts have reportedly joined the AFU. Efforts to improve drone capabilities continue, including stated intent to increase FPV allocation to the critical Pokrovsk direction.
Russian Manpower & Logistics: Significant logistical challenges persist, particularly on the Pokrovsk southern flank, due to Ukrainian drone interdiction. Use of specialized vehicles (RKhM-4) near Chasiv Yar and reports of motorcycle use suggest potential shortages or adaptation in transport methods. Russian leadership emphasizes ideological motivation for soldiers.
II. Air & Missile Threats/Strikes
Active Ukrainian Air Force Alerts (as of 12:45 UTC):
High-speed target detected approaching Dnipro from the East (12:03 UTC).
Russian tactical aviation active on the northeastern front, threat of air strikes for frontline oblasts (12:13 UTC).
Russian tactical aviation launching KABs in Sumy Oblast (12:18 UTC).
Missile Danger warning active for Kharkiv Oblast (12:34 UTC).
Video evidence and Russian commentary confirm a Ukrainian strike (reportedly HIMARS M30A2) damaged Russian helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-28) at an airfield.
Confirmed Ukrainian Strike (Occupied Crimea):
GUR "Prymary" unit reports targeted drone strikes destroying/damaging: RLS 9S32 "Imbir", RLS "Podlyot-K1", RLS "Nebo-SVU" + generator, BRLS MR-10M1E, and a transport-tug boat (Cape Tarkhankut).
Recent Russian Strikes (Claimed & Confirmed):
Kharkiv: Hit by at least 14 drones overnight (Apr 1-2), impacting industrial zone, damaging ~20 homes. 8 civilians treated for stress. (RU claims targeted 92nd Mech Bde facilities).
Sumy Oblast: Intense KAB strikes ongoing (nearly 50 Apr 1-morning Apr 2, launch reported 12:18 UTC Apr 2), plus overnight drone/artillery. FPV hit substation.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Artillery damaged power line near Nikopol. Explosion reported near Pavlohrad (RU claim: Geran strike).
Dobropillya (Donetsk Oblast - RU CLAIM): Claimed strike on UA 5th Brigade supply point, destroying 4 fuel trucks (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Popovka Area (Kharkiv/Belgorod Border - RU CLAIM): Video purports to show FAB-3000 strike destroying a dam allegedly used by Ukrainian forces for reinforcement transit (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2).
Other RU Claims (Overnight): Strikes claimed on Radisne (Odesa Oblast), Kramatorsk, Zolotyi Kolodiz, Sloviansk (Donetsk Oblast), Druzhkivka (UAV control center), Ivot (Sumy Oblast - Iskander), Kherson direction (FAB strike).
RU MoD Claims (Apr 2): Strikes on UAV assembly enterprise, UAV pilot training center, ammunition depots, and troop concentrations in 139 areas. Claimed downing of 2 JDAMs, 1 Uragan MLRS projectile, 177 UAVs (94 over RU territory).
Ongoing Drone Activity: Both sides continue extensive use of FPV and reconnaissance drones. Videos show:
UA drone strike on RU soldier transporting ammunition ("camel") near Luhansk (Butusov Plus).
UA drone ("Phoenix" unit) dropping munitions on RU soldier (Operatyvnyi ZSU).
RU drones mining a road, claiming subsequent hits on UA Oshkosh L-ATV and M-113 (Voin DV).
RU FPV drone allegedly ramming UA recon drone near border (TASS/MoD).
RU claim: FPV drone (Sever Group) destroyed UA "FlyEye" recon UAV in Sumy Oblast (Colonelcassad).
III. Ground Combat Operations
Pokrovsk Direction (Highest Intensity):
Remains the primary Russian offensive focus.
Russian sources report persistent severe logistical challenges for Russian forces on the southern flank (near Zelene, Dachenske, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Shevchenko) due to dominant Ukrainian drone activity, impacting resupply and forcing infantry rotations on foot. Uspenivka and Shevchenko remain contested.
Ukrainian sources indicate intent to increase FPV drone deployments to this critical axis.
Russian sources (RVvoenkor) claim Russian forces ("Otvazhnye" - Central Group) are repelling Ukrainian counter-attacks near Shevchenko.
RU MoD (Tsentr Group) claims taking more advantageous lines and positions.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Zones:
Intense fighting reported. Russian sources claim fighting is shifting towards the Sumy direction.
Russian MoD (Sever Group) claims offensive actions and strikes against Ukrainian units near the Sumy region border (Prokhody, Turya, Malaya Rybitsa, etc.). Claims >95 UA losses in Belgorod direction, >150 in Kursk/Sumy axis over 24h (Basurin claims >150 losses in Kursk/Sumy past day).
RU sources (Basurin) claim engagements near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk) and Basovka, Bilovody, Volodomyrivka, etc. (Sumy). Claim destruction of 2 UA UAV control points.
RU 40th Marine Brigade claimed Grad MLRS strikes on UA positions. RU claim FPV drones destroyed 2 UA pickups near border.
RU claim FPV drone destroyed UA FlyEye recon UAV in Sumy Oblast.
Interview with a Russian soldier (ASTRA) fighting in Kursk Oblast confirms significant difficulties caused by Ukrainian air/drone superiority.
Lyman Direction:
High activity.
ISW assesses Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead NE of Lyman, potentially preparing for future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city.
RU MoD (Zapad Group) claims improving tactical situation and inflicting losses near Yampol, Krasny Liman.
Toretsk Direction (incl. Konstantinovka area):
High activity.
RU CLAIM: 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motor Rifle Division) captured Oleksandropol (Rozivka), following the capture of Panteleimonivka. Map indicates claimed pressure towards Valentynivka. RU claims significant UA KIA/POW.
RU MoD (Yug Group) claims inflicting losses near Aleksandro-Kalinovo.
RU CLAIM (Vostok Group): Continued advance into enemy defenses near Razliv, Volnoye Pole. Claimed advances near Veseloye (600m front, 200m deep) and Volne Pole (200x200m area). Claimed FPV destroyed UA equipment west of Rozlyv. Claimed artillery/FPV destroyed UA reinforcement group near Bohatyr and destroyed a UA mortar.
Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Direction):
Fighting continues. Ukrainian FPV strike (24th Mech Bde) destroyed a Russian squad transported in a rare RKhM-4 CBRN vehicle, potentially indicating APC shortages.
Siversk Direction: High activity. RU MoD (Yug Group) claims inflicting losses near Verkhnekamenskoye.
Kupyansk Direction: Significant activity. RU MoD (Zapad Group) claims improving tactical situation and inflicting losses near Kamenka.
Orikhiv/Huliaipole Directions: Moderate activity. RU MoD (Vostok Group) claims inflicting losses near Zelenoye Pole, Temirovka.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Kherson): Lower intensity. RU MoD (Dnepr Group) claims taking more advantageous positions and engaging UA forces near Tyaginka, Antonovka.
IV. Logistics, Manpower & Other Notes
Ukrainian Logistics/Manpower:
Veteran Support: Presidential visit to Dnipro emphasized support for wounded soldiers and veterans. Key points include: high success rate of medical treatment in Dnipro (96% survival of >40k wounded), expansion of TitaniUA project (rehab/integration), development of veteran support app, focus on social housing and adaptive sports, need to address bureaucratic hurdles.
New Unit: Formation of all-female UAV unit "Harpii" announced, with recruitment ongoing.
Personnel: Over 8,000 former convicts recruited into AFU ranks.
Drone Focus: Stated intent to bolster FPV capabilities on the Pokrovsk front.
Other: Reservation quota for critical infrastructure workers increased. "Army+" app updated. Corruption probe into MoD food procurement (2022-23) ongoing.
Russian Logistics/Manpower:
Persistent reports confirm severe logistical difficulties on the Pokrovsk southern flank due to Ukrainian drone interdiction.
Anecdotal evidence (soldier interview) points to morale/logistics issues on the Kursk border front.
Use of non-standard vehicles (RKhM-4, motorcycles) may indicate shortages or tactical adaptations.
Reported use of drones for remote road mining operations.
Emphasis from leadership (Dep MoD Yevkurov) on soldiers understanding ideological reasons for fighting.
Propaganda/IW themes include alleged mistreatment of RU POWs, alleged surrender of demoralized UA soldiers, commentary on Russian opposition figures potentially joining RU forces.
International Support:
UK plans transfer of 8-10 Puma HC.2 helicopters.
"Coalition of the Willing" meeting set for Apr 10, Ramstein format for Apr 11 in Brussels.
Proposed US bipartisan secondary sanctions aim to increase economic pressure on Russia.
Commemoration: Ukraine marked 3rd anniversary of Kyiv Oblast liberation (Apr 2). Russia marked 2nd anniversary of propagandist Tatarsky's death. Russia/Belarus marked "Day of Unity".
