Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 11:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction remains the most active front (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant enemy activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (4 attacks), Kharkiv (7 attacks), and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes) against Ukrainian defense forces operating in Russian border regions.
Russian Strike Campaign: Continues at a high tempo, utilizing Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPK), artillery, FPV drones, and Shahed-type UAVs ('Geran'/'Gerbera').
Overnight Strikes (Apr 1-2):
UAV Summary:74 drones launched (54 Shahed-type). 10 hostile UAVs (Shahed and other types) were destroyed by mobile fire groups of the 160th Air Defense Brigade (Air Command South) in the southern direction. Footage released shows combat work against drones. (UA AF, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Kharkiv: Targeted by at least 14 drones. Confirmed hits on an industrial zone resulted in large fires, damage to approximately 20 homes, and 8 civilians treated for acute stress reaction, including 3 children. (Kharkiv Prosecutor/Mayor/Operativnyi ZSU/Zelenskyy, Apr 2). RU Claim (Colonelcassad, Apr 2): 6x Geran hits on production/logistics cluster allegedly used by 92nd Mech Bde; claims hit on "Promsvyaz" plant (alleged storage of PD-2 UAV blocks, EW components; >1000 sqm fire) and "Vilona" company building (alleged assembly/storage of tactical gear; 3 floors destroyed).
Sumy Oblast: Subjected to KAB strikes (nearly 50 between Apr 1 and morning Apr 2) and overnight drone/artillery attacks, including an FPV strike on a substation. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Artillery damaged a power line near Nikopol, affecting ~4,000 consumers. An explosion was also reported near Pavlohrad (RU Claim: Geran strike). (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Other RU Claims (Overnight Strikes - Colonelcassad, Apr 2):
Odesa Oblast (Radisne): 2x Geran hits claimed on 37th Separate Comms Bde (Navy) territory, allegedly damaging HQ comms node and causing barracks roof fire (700 sqm), temporary comms disruption.
Donetsk Oblast (Occupied): Kramatorsk (1x Geran hit claimed on 81st Airmobile MTO Bn area, destroying 1 bus, damaging another); Zolotyi Kolodiz (3x Geran hits claimed on 3rd NGU Bde vehicle area, damaging >= 2 vehicles).
Sloviansk: Geran-2 strike claimed on dormitory at Sloviansk Professional Art Lyceum, alleging it housed UA 54th Bde troops, causing partial collapse/fire. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Druzhkivka Strike (RU CLAIM): Claimed strike hit a UA long-range strike UAV control center, killing >= 20 UA personnel. (TASS citing Rogov, Apr 2).
Ivot Strike (Sumy Oblast - RU CLAIM): Iskander-M strike claimed against UA mobile fire group (NGU 2nd Regt), destroying 2 Kozak vehicles, 1 M1097 Avenger, killing 9 / wounding 7 personnel, and hitting a mobile command post. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Kherson Direction (RU CLAIM): FAB strike reported destroying a building allegedly used by UA forces. (Colonelcassad/rusich_army, Apr 2).
Kursk Border Area (RU CLAIM): Su-34 strike claimed, destroying a Ukrainian position. (TASS/RU MoD, Apr 2).
Energy Infrastructure (RU MoD CLAIM): Alleges two deliberate UA attacks on Russian energy infrastructure overnight (Apr 1-2) in Kursk Oblast: UAV attack on Klyukva substation (transformer off, >1200 consumers affected); shelling broke high-voltage line in Kursky District (>300 consumers affected). Peskov reiterated RU adherence to a moratorium, claiming Kyiv does not. (TASS/RU MoD/Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok/Peskov/Alex Parker Returns/Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Potential Future Russian Operations:
Assessments suggest Russia is preparing reserves for a potential offensive effort, possibly starting in May. (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2). Some conflicting reports (potentially Russian amplification of UA sources) suggest preparations for an offensive in April, alleging 2-3 divisions ready. (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2; Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Lyman Direction Focus: ISW assesses Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead NE of Lyman, potentially creating conditions for future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city. Russian forces reportedly reinforcing infantry attacks with significantly larger numbers (claim 10:1 superiority cited by UA commanders). (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor citing ISW/UA commanders, Apr 2).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains on the Pokrovsk Direction. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and within the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones. Efforts persist on the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction.
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Russian MoD claims ongoing "neutralisation" of UA forces in Kursk region, offensive actions by "Sever" Group near Gornal, Guyevo, Oleshnya, and strikes in Sumy region border areas. Claims >150 UA personnel, 8 vehicles, 2 UAV CPs eliminated in 24h on Kursk axis. Total claimed UA losses since start of hostilities in Kursk direction exceed 71,570 troops and extensive equipment (MoD Russia, Apr 2). Ukraine claims elimination of two Russian Air Defense officers (Lt Col I. Mayorov, Sr Lt D. Smirnov) in Kursk Oblast during March (Butusov Plus, Apr 2).
Pokrovsk Direction (South Flank - RU source report): Fierce meeting engagements reported near Zelene, Dachenske, Lysivka. RU source assesses UA attempt towards Selydove. Claims RU restoring positions in N. Lysivka after repelling UA counterattack (2 tanks, 1 BMP lost). Claims UA pushed RU line E. of Zelene. (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2). Another RU source reports situation largely unchanged; Novovasylivka held by UA; Uspenivka contested (gray zone, leaning UA); Shevchenko contested (RU making gains?). Highlights severe UA drone dominance impacting RU logistics (ammo, fuel, water) and forcing troops to walk ~10km for rotation. (Filolog v zasade, Apr 2).
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian FPV strike (24th Mech Bde, "Raroh" unit) destroyed a Russian squad transported in a rare RKhM-4 CBRN reconnaissance vehicle (BTR-80 based). Use of such specialized vehicles for transport may indicate shortages of standard APCs. (Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights, Apr 2).
RU MoD Daily Claims (Apr 2): High UA losses claimed across axes: >150 (Kursk/Sumy), >95 (Belgorod direction), up to 435 + tank (Center), up to 285 (South), >110 (East), up to 60 (Dnipro). Claimed 177 UA UAVs downed (94 over RU territory). (TASS/MoD Russia, Apr 2).
Government increased the reservation quota for employees of critical communal infrastructure enterprises (heat, water, waste) to 75% (previously 50%). Employees of the "Defense Procurement Agency" and "State Logistics Operator" eligible for 100% reservation. New rules require updated critical status and electronic processing via Diia portal from April. (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk ODA, Apr 2).
Over 8,000 former convicts have signed contracts with the Armed Forces of Ukraine; ~900 applications pending review. Many have received awards for combat performance. (Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights, RBC-Ukraina citing MinJust, Apr 2).
The "Army+" mobile application updated with six new electronic report templates for dismissal due to family/health reasons. (UGS, Apr 2).
Internal Security/Counter-Intelligence: SBU and National Police detained an alleged FSB agent in Odesa. The individual, a wanted recidivist from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, allegedly conducted arson attacks against Ukrainian military vehicles and manufactured IEDs for terrorist attacks, including one used against police in Bilyaivka on March 23. (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Corruption Investigation: NABU/SAP issued suspicion notices regarding alleged embezzlement (>733M UAH) and attempted embezzlement (788M UAH) in 2022-23 MoD food procurement contracts via price manipulation. Involves former MoD official, company owner, and others. Linked to previous "eggs at 17 UAH" scandal. (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 2). Russian sources amplify this report. (Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Leadership/Morale: President Zelenskyy visited wounded soldiers in Dnipro, presenting awards. (Zelenskiy / Official / Dnipro OVA / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2). Coordination HQ met with families of POWs/detained personnel. (Coordination HQ POWs, Apr 2).
International Support:
The United Kingdom plans to transfer 8-10 Westland Puma HC.2 helicopters to Ukraine. (Operatyvnyi ZSU citing Avions Legendaires, Apr 2).
A meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" (hosted by UK/France) is scheduled for April 10 in Brussels, followed by a Ramstein format meeting (hosted by UK/Germany) on April 11. (RBC-Ukraina, Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Finnish President Stubb expressed support for a proposed US bipartisan sanctions package against Russia, calling increased pressure the best way to stop the war. (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2).
US Sanctions Proposal: 50 US Senators (bipartisan) proposed increasing secondary tariffs to 500% on goods from countries buying Russian resources (oil, gas, uranium, etc.) if Russia refuses peace talks or violates agreements. (ASTRA/Bloomberg, Apr 2).
Russian Force Generation, Logistics & Internal Issues:
Logistics: Ongoing reliance on volunteer crowdfunding evident (e.g., Starlink V3 purchased for 337th DShP/104th DShD on Kherson front; funds sought for Starlink Mini for 10th Spetsnaz Bde/Kherson, electric cart for DRShBr "Volki"/Kramatorsk, Mavic 3 batteries). (Filolog v zasade, Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Internal Policies: Russian Duma advances legislation for stricter penalties (prison time) for calls for sanctions, assisting international organizations Russia isn't part of, and paid "discreditation" of the army. Allows in absentia trials for emigrants on various charges. Stricter foreign agent laws also noted. Putin orders measures against scam calls and potential bank card limits. (ASTRA/TASS/Colonelcassad, Apr 2). Government to provide special terms for conscripted college graduates to maintain skills (TASS, Apr 2).
Propaganda/Narrative: Focus on posthumous award for Cossack soldier (Operatsiya Z, Apr 2), alleged future threat from UA veterans (Dva Mayora, Apr 2), claims of RU success in Kursk border region (MoD Russia, Apr 2). Promotion of narrative that suffering is necessary for Russians (Alex Parker Returns citing ROC priest, Apr 2).
Prisoner of War Exchange: Exchange of 1,500 parcels for POWs planned for April (RU Source/Moskalkova, Apr 2).
Commemoration: Ukraine marked the 3rd anniversary of the liberation of Kyiv Oblast (April 2, 2022). (UGS/Zelenskyy/various UA sources, Apr 2). Russia marked the 2nd anniversary of the death of propagandist Vladlen Tatarsky (WarGonzo, Старше Эдды, Apr 2).
