Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 11:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (4 attacks), Kharkiv (7 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPK), artillery, FPV/Shahed-type drones ('Geran'/'Gerbera').
Overnight Strikes (Apr 1-2):
UAVs:74 drones launched (54 Shahed-type). 10 hostile UAVs (Shahed and other types) destroyed by mobile fire groups of 160th AD Bde (Air Command South) in the southern direction. (UA AF, Apr 2).
Kharkiv: Targeted by at least 14 drones (hits confirmed on industrial zone, large fires, damage to ~20 homes, 8 civilians treated for stress reaction, incl. 3 children). (Kharkiv Prosecutor/Mayor/Operativnyi ZSU/Zelenskyy, Apr 2). RU CLAIM (Colonelcassad, Apr 2): 6x Geran hits on production/logistics cluster allegedly used by 92nd Mech Bde. Claims hit on "Promsvyaz" plant (alleged storage of PD-2 UAV blocks, EW components; >1000 sqm fire) and "Vilona" company building (alleged assembly/storage of tactical gear; 3 floors destroyed).
Odesa Oblast (Radisne - RU CLAIM): 2x Geran hits claimed on territory of 37th Separate Comms Bde (Navy). Claimed damage to HQ building (comms node, fiber optics, satellite terminals) and barracks roof fire (700 sqm), temporary comms disruption, no personnel losses (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Donetsk Oblast (RU-Occupied - RU CLAIM):
Kramatorsk: 1x Geran hit claimed on MTO Bn area (81st Airmobile Bde), destroying 1 bus, damaging another (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Zolotyi Kolodiz: 3x Geran hits claimed on dispersed vehicle area (2nd Op Bn, 3rd NGU Bde), damaging >= 2 vehicles (Kozak-2, comms, trucks) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Sumy Oblast: Also struck overnight (Zelenskyy, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Sloviansk Strike - Apr 2): Claimed Geran-2 strike hit dormitory at Sloviansk Professional Art Lyceum, alleging it housed UA 54th Bde troops. Claimed partial collapse/fire. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Druzhkivka Strike - Apr 2): Claimed strike hit UA long-range strike UAV control center in Druzhkivka (DNR), killing >= 20 UA personnel. (TASS citing Rogov, Apr 2).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Artillery damaged power line near Nikopol (Apr 1/2). Power outages affected ~4,000 consumers. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
RU MoD CLAIM (Kursk Oblast Strikes by UA - Apr 2): Russian MoD alleges Ukraine intentionally attacked Russian energy infrastructure twice overnight (Apr 1-2): UAV attack on substation near Klyukva (transformer powered off, >1200 consumers affected); shelling broke high-voltage line in Kursky District (>300 consumers affected). Peskov reiterated RU adherence to a moratorium, claiming Kyiv does not, notes lack of US reaction. (TASS/RU MoD/Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok/Peskov/Alex Parker Returns/Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Sumy Oblast KAB Strikes: Subjected to nearly 50 KAB strikes (Apr 1 - morning Apr 2). (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
RU Strike Chronicle (Apr 1-2): Extensive list of claimed/reported strikes across Donbas (Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Sloviansk, Lyman), Sumy (Krasnopillya, Zemliane, border areas), Kharkiv (Kozacha Lopan, city), Zaporizhzhia (near oblast border junction, Kamyshevakha, near Zaporizhzhia city), Kherson, Odesa (Yuzhne port, Illichivsk port, Odesa city outskirts, Radisne), Dnipropetrovsk using UMPK, Geran/Gerbera, RZSO. (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
RU MoD CLAIM (Targets Apr 1-2): Strikes targeted military-industrial objects in Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Odesa Oblast (incl. ports Yuzhne, Illichivsk). Yuzhne port identified as key fuel import point for Ukraine. Also claimed hitting UA UAV assembly enterprise and operator training center. (Poddubny/Dnevnik Desantnika/TASS/MoD Russia, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Iskander Strike - Sumy): Claimed Iskander-M strike in Ivot (Sumy Oblast) hit UA mobile fire group (NGU 2nd Regt), destroying 2 Kozak vehicles, 1 M1097 Avenger, killing 9 / wounding 7 personnel, and hit a mobile command post. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU MoD CLAIM (Su-34 Strike - Kursk Border): Claimed Su-34 under fighter cover destroyed a Ukrainian point in the Kursk border area (TASS, Apr 2).
Potential Future Russian Operations:
Assessments indicate Russia is preparing reserves for another offensive effort, potentially commencing in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
Conflicting reports (some citing UA sources via RU channels) suggest Russia may be preparing for an offensive in April, alleging 2-3 divisions trained and equipped. Russian sources highlight conflicting Ukrainian statements on offensive potential. (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2; Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Lyman Direction Focus: ISW assesses RU forces are expanding their bridgehead NE of Lyman, creating conditions for potential future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city, potentially aiming to complete the occupation of Luhansk Oblast. RU forces reportedly reinforcing infantry attacks with significantly larger numbers (claim 10:1 superiority cited by UA commanders). (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor citing ISW/UA commanders, Apr 2).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and within the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts). Russian forces continue efforts on the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction.
RU MoD Daily Claims (Apr 2): High UA losses claimed across axes: >150 (Kursk/Sumy), >95 (Belgorod direction), up to 435 + tank (Center), up to 285 (South), >110 (East), up to 60 (Dnipro). Claimed 177 UA UAVs downed (94 over RU territory). (TASS/MoD Russia, Apr 2).
Russian Force Generation, Morale & Internal Policies:
Reports from captured Russian soldier (D. Zyulin, 9th Bde, Ulyanovsk) claim high attrition (3 survivors from 60), inadequate support/treatment by command, disillusionment with state propaganda vs. reality on the ground, and effectiveness of Ukrainian drones. Soldier expressed surprise at humane POW treatment by Azov Brigade compared to narratives. (Nikolaevsky Vanek, Apr 2).
Reports of continued raids by OMON/military commissariat personnel targeting men in Moscow fitness clubs for military service checks. (MOBILIZATION News, Apr 2).
Report of intoxicated ex-Wagner PMC member attacking police in Tver Oblast, referencing alleged war crimes. (ASTRA, Apr 2).
Proposal in State Duma to grant veteran status to volunteer formations operating in border regions (Kursk Oblast). (Basurin, Apr 2).
RU Legislative Changes: Russian Duma advances legislation (first reading): up to 5 years prison for calls for sanctions (if for profit); up to 7 years for assisting international organizations Russia doesn't participate in (if for pay); up to 7 years for paid "discreditation" of army; allows in absentia trials for emigrants accused of 'fakes', extremism, etc. (ASTRA/TASS, Apr 2). Stricter laws on foreign agents, failure to report sabotage also noted (TASS, Apr 2). Putin orders mechanism to block scam calls, potential limits on bank card issuance/validity (TASS/Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
Logistics/Crowdfunding: Russian volunteer groups continue crowdfunding efforts: acquired Starlink V3 for 337th DShP (Kherson); seeking funds for Starlink Mini x2 (10th Spetsnaz Bde, Kherson) and electric cart (DRShBr "Volki", Kramatorsk) (Filolog v zasade, Apr 2); seeking funds for 20x Mavic 3 batteries (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Indicates continued reliance on non-state support for essential equipment.
Propaganda/Narrative: RU milbloggers discuss perceived post-war threat from UA special forces veterans, citing historical US actions and framing current conflict as existential (Dva Mayora, Apr 2). Posthumous Hero of Russia award narrative for Cossack soldier E. Ostapenko (killed Sep 2024 near Krasnohorivka) used for morale (Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Corruption Investigation: NABU/SAP announce suspicion notices against former MoD official, company owner, and others regarding alleged embezzlement (>733M UAH) and attempted embezzlement (788M UAH) in 2022-23 food procurement contracts via price manipulation in catalogue system. Case linked to previous "eggs at 17 UAH" scandal. (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Ukrainian government increased reservation quota for employees of critical communal infrastructure enterprises to 75%. Employees of the "Defense Procurement Agency" and "State Logistics Operator" eligible for 100% reservation. (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
The "Army+" mobile application has been updated with six new electronic report templates for dismissal from military service due to family circumstances or health conditions, intended to streamline the process. (UGS, Apr 2).
Coordination HQ held meeting with families of POWs/detained military personnel, discussing release mechanisms, potential third-country transfers, health releases, civilian releases, and international appeals. (Coordination HQ POWs, Apr 2).
President Zelenskyy visited wounded soldiers in a medical facility in Dnipro, presenting state awards. (Zelenskiy / Official / Dnipro OVA / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Ukrainian DShV training center showcased initial adaptation process for new recruits. (DShV, Apr 2).
Prisoner of War Exchange: An exchange of 1,500 parcels for POWs is planned for April between Russia and Ukraine (RU Source/Moskalkova, Apr 2).
Commemoration: Ukrainian leadership commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the liberation of Kyiv Oblast (April 2, 2022), emphasizing the role of AFU, territorial defense, local residents, and Kyivans in repelling the Russian advance on the capital. Video montage recalls key moments (Battle for Hostomel/Vasylkiv airfields, Bucha, Irpin, Moshchun, Makariv tank battle, Brovary column destruction). (UGS/Zelenskyy/KMVA/OTU Kharkiv/AFU StratCom/DeepState, Apr 2).
Tactical Markings: Russian sources discuss observed new Ukrainian tactical vehicle markings (e.g., three arrows on 24th OMBR vehicles seen destroyed by RU forces), citing alleged captured UA documents detailing marking rules for different OTUs (Kharkiv, Starobilsk, Luhansk, Donetsk). Acknowledge possibility of UA deception operations. Reportedly, vehicles with new markings seen arriving in Sloviansk. (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2).
