Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 10:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (4 attacks), Kharkiv (7 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPK), artillery, FPV/Shahed-type drones ('Geran'/'Gerbera').
Overnight Strikes (Apr 1-2):
UAVs:74 drones launched (54 Shahed-type). 10 hostile UAVs (Shahed and other types) destroyed by mobile fire groups of 160th AD Bde (Air Command South) in the southern direction. (UA AF, Apr 2).
Kharkiv: Targeted by at least 14 drones (hits confirmed on industrial zone, large fires, damage to ~20 homes, 8 civilians treated for stress reaction, incl. 3 children). (Kharkiv Prosecutor/Mayor/Operativnyi ZSU/Zelenskyy, Apr 2).
Odesa & Sumy Oblasts: Also struck overnight. (Zelenskyy, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Sloviansk Strike - Apr 2): Claimed Geran-2 strike hit dormitory at Sloviansk Professional Art Lyceum, alleging it housed UA 54th Bde troops. Claimed partial collapse/fire. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Artillery damaged power line near Nikopol (Apr 1/2). Power outages affected ~4,000 consumers. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
RU MoD CLAIM (Kursk Oblast Strikes by UA - Apr 2): Russian MoD alleges Ukraine intentionally attacked Russian energy infrastructure twice overnight (Apr 1-2): UAV attack on substation near Klyukva (transformer powered off, >1200 consumers affected); shelling broke high-voltage line in Kursky District (>300 consumers affected). Peskov reiterated RU adherence to a moratorium, claiming Kyiv does not, notes lack of US reaction. (TASS/RU MoD/Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok/Peskov/Alex Parker Returns/Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Sumy Oblast KAB Strikes: Subjected to nearly 50 KAB strikes (Apr 1 - morning Apr 2). (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
RU Strike Chronicle (Apr 1-2): Extensive list of claimed/reported strikes across Donbas (Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Sloviansk, Lyman), Sumy (Krasnopillya, Zemliane, border areas), Kharkiv (Kozacha Lopan, city), Zaporizhzhia (near oblast border junction, Kamyshevakha, near Zaporizhzhia city), Kherson, Odesa (Yuzhne port, Illichivsk port, Odesa city outskirts), Dnipropetrovsk using UMPK, Geran/Gerbera, RZSO. (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
RU MoD CLAIM (Targets Apr 1-2): Strikes targeted military-industrial objects in Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Odesa Oblast (incl. ports Yuzhne, Illichivsk). Yuzhne port identified as key fuel import point for Ukraine. Also claimed hitting UA UAV assembly enterprise and operator training center. (Poddubny/Dnevnik Desantnika/TASS/MoD Russia, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Iskander Strike - Sumy): Claimed Iskander-M strike in Ivot (Sumy Oblast) hit UA mobile fire group (NGU 2nd Regt), destroying 2 Kozak vehicles, 1 M1097 Avenger, killing 9 / wounding 7 personnel, and hit a mobile command post. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Potential Future Russian Operations:
Assessments indicate Russia is preparing reserves for another offensive effort, potentially commencing in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
Conflicting reports (some citing UA sources via RU channels) suggest Russia may be preparing for an offensive in April, alleging 2-3 divisions trained and equipped. Russian sources highlight conflicting Ukrainian statements on offensive potential. (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2; Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
Lyman Direction Focus: ISW assesses RU forces are expanding their bridgehead NE of Lyman, creating conditions for potential future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city, potentially aiming to complete the occupation of Luhansk Oblast. RU forces reportedly reinforcing infantry attacks with significantly larger numbers (claim 10:1 superiority cited by UA commanders). (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor citing ISW/UA commanders, Apr 2).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and within the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts). Russian forces continue efforts on the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction.
RU MoD Daily Claims (Apr 2): High UA losses claimed across axes: >150 (Kursk/Sumy), >95 (Belgorod direction), up to 435 + tank (Center), up to 285 (South), >110 (East), up to 60 (Dnipro). Claimed 177 UA UAVs downed (94 over RU territory). (TASS/MoD Russia, Apr 2).
Russian Force Generation & Morale:
Reports from captured Russian soldier (D. Zyulin, 9th Bde, Ulyanovsk) claim high attrition (3 survivors from 60), inadequate support/treatment by command, disillusionment with state propaganda vs. reality on the ground, and effectiveness of Ukrainian drones. Soldier expressed surprise at humane POW treatment by Azov Brigade compared to narratives. (Nikolaevsky Vanek, Apr 2).
Reports of continued raids by OMON/military commissariat personnel targeting men in Moscow fitness clubs for military service checks. (MOBILIZATION News, Apr 2).
Report of intoxicated ex-Wagner PMC member attacking police in Tver Oblast, referencing alleged war crimes. (ASTRA, Apr 2).
Proposal in State Duma to grant veteran status to volunteer formations operating in border regions (Kursk Oblast). (Basurin, Apr 2).
RU legislative changes: Stricter laws on foreign agents, penalties for calls for sanctions, failure to report sabotage. (TASS, Apr 2).
Ukrainian Manpower Policy, Admin & Morale:
Ukrainian government increased reservation quota for employees of critical communal infrastructure enterprises to 75%. Employees of the "Defense Procurement Agency" and "State Logistics Operator" eligible for 100% reservation. (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
The "Army+" mobile application has been updated with six new electronic report templates for dismissal from military service due to family circumstances or health conditions, intended to streamline the process. (UGS, Apr 2).
Coordination HQ held meeting with families of POWs/detained military personnel, discussing release mechanisms, potential third-country transfers, health releases, civilian releases, and international appeals. (Coordination HQ POWs, Apr 2).
President Zelenskyy visited wounded soldiers in a medical facility in Dnipro, presenting state awards. (Zelenskiy / Official / Dnipro OVA / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Ukrainian DShV training center showcased initial adaptation process for new recruits. (DShV, Apr 2).
Prisoner of War Exchange: An exchange of 1,500 parcels for POWs is planned for April between Russia and Ukraine (RU Source/Moskalkova, Apr 2).
Commemoration: Ukrainian leadership commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the liberation of Kyiv Oblast (April 2, 2022), emphasizing the role of AFU, territorial defense, local residents, and Kyivans in repelling the Russian advance on the capital. Video montage recalls key moments (Battle for Hostomel/Vasylkiv airfields, Bucha, Irpin, Moshchun, Makariv tank battle, Brovary column destruction). (UGS/Zelenskyy/KMVA/OTU Kharkiv/AFU StratCom/DeepState, Apr 2).
Tactical Markings: Russian sources discuss observed new Ukrainian tactical vehicle markings (e.g., three arrows on 24th OMBR vehicles seen destroyed by RU forces), citing alleged captured UA documents detailing marking rules for different OTUs (Kharkiv, Starobilsk, Luhansk, Donetsk). Acknowledge possibility of UA deception operations. Reportedly, vehicles with new markings seen arriving in Sloviansk. (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2).
Internal Security (UA):
SBU Thwarted Plot (Lviv): SBU announced prevention of an alleged GRU-planned terrorist attack in Lviv. Claimed plot involved planting an IED hidden in a package inside a district police building for remote detonation. A 22-year-old Kyiv woman allegedly recruited via Telegram was detained. (ASTRA/SBU, Apr 2).
Executed Terrorist Attack (Odesa Oblast - Mar 23): Odesa Regional Prosecutor reports detention of Odesa resident allegedly recruited by Russian special services via Telegram to manufacture/arrange bombing. On Mar 23, suspect allegedly sent IED disguised as gift via taxi to a woman in Biliaivka, who unknowingly took it into police building. Remote detonation by RU handler via embedded SIM card resulted in 1 civilian KIA (the woman) and 3 police WIA. Suspect detained; components for another IED (disguised as fire extinguisher) found. (Odesa Regional Prosecutor, Apr 2).
Enhanced Security (Lviv): Enhanced security measures implemented in Lviv and Lviv Oblast near administrative buildings due to perceived threat of Russian diversionary actions. Police checking suspicious persons and vehicles for explosives. (Operativnyi ZSU citing MP/RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2).
Civilian Evacuation (Kharkiv Oblast): Ongoing evacuation of families with children from dangerous areas in Kupyansk, Chuhuiv, Izyum, Bohodukhiv, and Kharkiv districts. 10 people evacuated from Kupyansk and Borova directions in the past 24 hours. Total evacuated since Aug 2022: ~59,000 (incl. 6,381 children, 1,265 persons with disabilities). Support hubs operational in Kharkiv city. (Syniehubov, Apr 2).
Civilian Casualties: One civilian woman killed in Gorlovka (RU-controlled) from shelling on Apr 1 (Mash na Donbasse, Apr 2).
Ukrainian Air Capabilities: MiG-29 pilot "Denfix" (Air Command West) describes dual role: night air defense (shooting down Shaheds with missiles) and daytime ground attack (using precision bombs near LoC). Claims over two dozen missile/drone kills. Highlights challenge of hitting slow drones with fast jets. (UGS, Apr 2).
Foreign Fighters: Image reportedly shows Colombian national killed fighting for Ukraine. (Alex Parker Returns, Apr 2).
UA Officer Losses Claimed by RU: Russian sources report alleged KIA of 5 Ukrainian officers (listing names/ranks). (Anatoliy Shtefan, Apr 2).
Weather Outlook: Cold snap expected across western, northern, and parts of central Ukraine starting April 5, with potential snow and strong wind from April 6, lasting through the following week. (RBC-Ukraina citing forecaster, Apr 2).
Past UA Strike Confirmation (Ivnya, Belgorod - Mar 24): Footage confirms aftermath of UA HIMARS (M30A2 GMLRS) strike on RU field airfield near Ivnya, Belgorod Oblast (~60km from border) on Mar 24, 2025. Claimed critical damage to 4 RU helicopters (2x Ka-52, 2x Mi-8) by tungsten ball submunitions. RU sources confirm strike occurred, though debate type of helicopters damaged (some claim Mi-28 shown). (KiberBoroshno/Dosye Shpiona/Operativnyi ZSU/Sternenko/Alex Parker Returns, Apr 2).
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Assessed/Claimed)
Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts (RU) / Sumy Border:
UGS reports 18 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast on April 1. RU conducted 27 air strikes (41 KABs) and 265 artillery attacks (2 MLRS) in this zone (UGS Apr 2). RU MoD CLAIM (Apr 2): RU Group "Sever" offensive actions defeated UA Mech, DShV, TDO brigades near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk). Strikes hit UA forces in these + multiple Sumy border settlements (incl. Basovka, Bilovody, Volodymyrivka, Zapsillya, Myropillya, Mohrytsia, Yunakivka). Claimed UA lost >150 personnel, 8 vehicles, 2 UAV control points in 24h. (TASS/MoD Russia via Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
RU Assessment (Stabilization/Ongoing Fighting): Russian sources claim stabilization in Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod), but situation remains tense. Positional fighting continues. (Rybar, Apr 2).
Popovka: Assessed as extensive grey zone with meeting battles of small groups, mutual artillery fire. RU drones target UA armor attempting incursions. (Rybar, Apr 2). Fighting continues (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). RU claims stopping UA breakthrough attempts by small groups (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Demidovka: Meeting battles continue. Both sides use artillery/aviation, destroying the settlement. RU claims UA reinforcing from Maryino/Prokhody to hold positions. (Rybar, Apr 2). Fighting continues (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). RU claims stopping UA breakthrough attempts by small groups (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Grafovka/Prilesya: Limited UA activity reported, possibly due to terrain/roads. RU strikes target reported UA concentrations in Turya. (Rybar, Apr 2).
UA Fortifications: RU sources claim UA forces are equipping fortifications near Demidovka and Popovka after failed breakthrough attempts towards Krasnaya Yaruga. UA actively reinforcing the area. (Rybar, Apr 2).
RU Claims (Advances/Clearing): Claimed capture/clearing of Guyevo (Kursk). Assessed Russian advances along Sumy border near Zhuravka/Basovka line (RU claim expansion near Basovka). Geolocated Russian advance East of Oleshnia (Kursk). Fighting reported near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). RU claim remnants of UA forces pushed from Hoholivka. RU CLAIM: Expanded zone of control towards Oleshnia (Colonelcassad citing Divgen map, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Repelled UA Attacks): Repelled UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) from Sumy Oblast; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Dnevnik Desantnika notes UA using little heavy tech here.
RU CLAIM (Grad Strike): MoD Russia claims Grad MLRS (40th Marine Bde, Sever Group) destroyed UA hardware and manpower cluster in the Kursk border area (MoD Russia, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Dam Strike - FAB-3000): VKS reportedly bombed a dam near Popovka (Belgorod Obl.) with a FAB-3000 bomb, alleging it was used by UA forces for vehicle crossings. (Colonelcassad / Alex Parker Returns / Dva Mayora, Apr 2; RVvoenkor Apr 1).
RU MoD CLAIM (UA Energy Strikes): Claimed Ukrainian forces struck a substation (near Klyukva) and another energy facility (power line) in Kursk Oblast, causing power disruptions (TASS/RU MoD/Colonelcassad/Voenkor Kotenok/Alex Parker Returns, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 Ukrainian POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2). High UA drone activity noted, hitting civilian/military targets (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Direction: Assessed Russian advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed UA forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). OTU Kharkiv reports 7 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1). OTU Kharkiv reports Russian losses (Apr 1): 101 personnel (65 irrecoverable), 1 arty system, 6 vehicles, 14 spec equip, 41 UAVs destroyed/damaged. 73 Russian shelters and 1 ammo storage destroyed.
RU CLAIM (Strike): Molniya fixed-wing UAV team (Zapad Group) claimed strike on UA manpower/materiel concentration in Kharkiv region. (MoD Russia, Apr 2).
Ongoing Threat (10:29 UTC): UA AF warns of RU tactical aviation activity on NE direction, threat to frontline oblasts.
Kupyansk Direction:
Russian sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for days, claiming northern part secured (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). RU CLAIM: Russian forces advanced N of Kupyansk towards Kondrashivka, described as an important logistics point for UA forces in Kupyansk; claim RU forces secured outskirts (Poddubny, Apr 2).
Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
RU CLAIM (UA Assault Repelled): Russian 352nd MSR claims repelling a Ukrainian assault N of Stepova Novoselivka, alleging destruction of 1 UA armored fighting vehicle (BBM) and inflicting infantry casualties during dismount and subsequent attack attempt (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
UGS reports 11 Russian attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
Lyman Direction:
RU Claims/Assessment: Russian forces assessed expanding bridgehead NE of Lyman, creating conditions for potential future offensives towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor citing ISW, Apr 2). Assessed Russian advances North of Novoliubivka (geolocated) (ISW). RU CLAIM: Advance towards Katerynivka and expanded zone of control near Katerynivka (Colonelcassad citing Divgen map, Apr 2). Potential RU focus shift NW from Ivanivka towards Nove, Katerynivka, and Borova (ISW assessment via UA Source, Apr 2). Russian sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2).
RU Capabilities: RU forces reportedly reinforced infantry attacks with significantly larger numbers; UA commanders cited claiming 10:1 RU numerical superiority (Operatsiya Z / RVvoenkor, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044550) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
UA Action: Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade reported recapture of Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast) (UA Source citing 3rd Aslt Bde, Apr 2).
Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne reported (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting initiated for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 15 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
RU CLAIM: Russian "Nevsky" Brigade (Volunteer Corps
