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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-04-02 08:46:34Z
10 months ago
Previous (2025-04-02 08:16:56Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 08:45 UTC

I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (4 attacks), Kharkiv (7 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
  • Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPK), artillery, FPV/Shahed-type drones ('Geran'/'Gerbera').
    • Overnight (Apr 1-2): 74 drones launched (54 Shahed-type). Kharkiv targeted by at least 14 drones (hits confirmed, civilians WIA incl. 3 children). Odesa and Sumy Oblasts also struck. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
    • Energy infrastructure targeted: Sumy Oblast (FPV drone hit substation), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (artillery damaged power line near Nikopol). Power outages affected ~4,000 consumers. (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
    • Sumy Oblast: Subjected to nearly 50 KAB strikes (Apr 1 - morning Apr 2). (Zelenskyy/Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
    • RU Strike Chronicle (Apr 1-2): Extensive list of claimed/reported strikes across Donbas (Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Sloviansk, Lyman), Sumy (Krasnopillya, Zemliane, border areas), Kharkiv (Kozacha Lopan, city), Zaporizhzhia (near oblast border junction, Kamyshevakha, near Zaporizhzhia city), Kherson, Odesa (Yuzhne port, Illichivsk port, Odesa city outskirts), Dnipropetrovsk using UMPK, Geran/Gerbera, RZSO. (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
    • RU CLAIM (Targets Apr 1-2): Strikes targeted military-industrial objects in Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Odesa Oblast (incl. ports Yuzhne, Illichivsk). Yuzhne port identified as key fuel import point for Ukraine. (Poddubny/Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
    • RU CLAIM (Iskander Strike): Claimed Iskander-M strike in Ivot (Sumy Oblast) hit UA mobile fire group (NGU 2nd Regt), destroying 2 Kozak vehicles, 1 M1097 Avenger, killing 9 / wounding 7 personnel, and hit a mobile command post. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
  • Potential Future Russian Operations:
    • Assessments indicate Russia is preparing reserves for another offensive effort, potentially commencing in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
    • Conflicting reports (some citing UA sources via RU channels) suggest Russia may be preparing for an offensive in April, alleging 2-3 divisions trained and equipped. Russian sources highlight conflicting Ukrainian statements on offensive potential. (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2; Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
  • Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
    • Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and within the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts). Russian forces continue efforts on the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction.
  • Ukrainian Manpower Policy: Ukrainian government increased reservation quota for employees of critical communal infrastructure enterprises to 75%. Employees of the "Defense Procurement Agency" and "State Logistics Operator" eligible for 100% reservation. (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
  • Prisoner of War Exchange: An exchange of 1,500 parcels for POWs is planned for April between Russia and Ukraine (RU Source/Moskalkova, Apr 2).
  • Commemoration: Ukrainian leadership commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the liberation of Kyiv Oblast (April 2, 2022). (UGS/Zelenskyy, Apr 2).
  • Tactical Markings: Russian sources discuss observed new Ukrainian tactical vehicle markings (e.g., three arrows on 24th OMBR vehicles seen destroyed by RU forces), citing alleged captured UA documents detailing marking rules for different OTUs (Kharkiv, Starobilsk, Luhansk, Donetsk). Acknowledge possibility of UA deception operations. Reportedly, vehicles with new markings seen arriving in Sloviansk. (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2).
  • Air Threat: Ongoing threat of Russian aviation weapon use reported for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA AF, 08:28 UTC Apr 2).

II. Territorial Changes & Control (Assessed/Claimed)

  • Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts (RU) / Sumy Border:
    • UGS reports 18 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast on April 1. RU conducted 27 air strikes (41 KABs) and 265 artillery attacks (2 MLRS) in this zone (UGS Apr 2).
    • Russian sources claim stabilization. Claimed capture/clearing of Guyevo (Kursk). Assessed Russian advances along Sumy border near Zhuravka/Basovka line (RU claim expansion near Basovka). Geolocated Russian advance East of Oleshnia (Kursk). Fighting reported near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). RU claim remnants of UA forces pushed from Hoholivka.
    • RU CLAIM: Repelled UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) from Sumy Oblast; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
    • RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 Ukrainian POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
    • RU CLAIM (Dam Strike): VKS reportedly bombed a dam near Popovka (Belgorod Obl.) with a FAB-3000 bomb, alleging it was used by UA forces for vehicle crossings. (Alex Parker Returns / Dva Mayora, Apr 2; RVvoenkor Apr 1).
  • Kharkiv Direction: Assessed Russian advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed UA forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). OTU Kharkiv reports 7 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1). OTU Kharkiv reports Russian losses (Apr 1): 101 personnel (65 irrecoverable), 1 arty system, 6 vehicles, 14 spec equip, 41 UAVs destroyed/damaged. 73 Russian shelters and 1 ammo storage destroyed.
    • RU CLAIM (Strike): Molniya fixed-wing UAV team (Zapad Group) claimed strike on UA manpower/materiel concentration in Kharkiv region. (MoD Russia, Apr 2).
  • Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for days, claiming northern part secured. Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. Ukrainian forces counterattacking (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 11 Russian attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
  • Lyman Direction: Assessed Russian advances North of Novoliubivka (geolocated) (ISW). Potential preparations for large-scale Russian offensive aiming for Borova (Kharkiv Oblast) or Lyman (ISW Assessment reinforced by Tsaplienko citing ISW, Apr 2). Potential Russian focus shift NW from Ivanivka towards Nove, Katerynivka, and Borova (ISW assessment via UA Source, Apr 2). Russian sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 17 Russian attacks repelled towards Torske, Nove, Myrne, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (Apr 1).
    • RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044550) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
    • UA Action: Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade reported recapture of Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast) (UA Source citing 3rd Aslt Bde, Apr 2).
  • Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne reported (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting initiated for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 15 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
  • Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
    • RU CLAIM: Russian "Nevsky" Brigade (Volunteer Corps, GpV South) advanced 2.5km on this direction in the past two weeks (TASS, Apr 2). UGS reported 7 combat clashes on April 1 near Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, towards Predtechyne.
    • RU ACTION: FPV drone strike targeted abandoned UA BTR near Nikolaevka (coordinates 48.580935 37.811887), approx. 1 km from LBS. (Slivochniy Kapriz, Apr 2).
  • Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. UGS reports 64 Russian attacks repelled on April 1 near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Berezivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Sribne, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriyivka, also towards Bohdanivka, Novoserhiivka, Romanivka and Pokrovsk.
    • RU CLAIM (Advances): Fierce fighting near Novooleksandrivka and Udachne. Russian forces (GpV "Center") advanced in Preobrazhenka (approaching/completing clearing of western part). Fighting for outskirts of Kotlyne. Attacks on Troitske - Bohdanivka line. (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2).
    • RU CLAIM (Map): Claimed Russian advances near Nadezhdinka, Zaporizhzhia village, and Bohdanivka. (Z Komitet map, Apr 2).
    • RU ACTION: FPV drone operators (33rd MSR / 20th MSD) claim strikes inside buildings used as shelter by UA forces in Tarasivka. (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
  • Novopavlivsk Direction: UGS reports 8 Russian attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil and Rozlyv (Apr 1).
    • RU CLAIM (Liberation): RU MoD claimed liberation of Rozliv (Apr 1). Contradicted UGS report of ongoing fighting. RU sources claimed clearing west of Rozlyv, advancing towards Bohatyr. (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 1).
    • UA ACTION: Presidential Bde + 31st Mech Bde UAV operators reportedly stopped/destroyed RU assault attempt (FPV strikes on vehicles). (UGS, Apr 2).
    • RU ACTION: FPV strikes reported targeting UA temporary deployment points near Bohatyr. (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
  • Huliaipole Direction: UGS reports 5 Russian attacks repelled near Pryvilne and towards Novopil (Apr 1).
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): UGS reports 5 Russian attacks repelled towards Novodanylivka and Stepove (Apr 1).
    • RU CLAIM (Capture): Russian 247th Regiment paratroopers claim control of Lobkove after assault actions and air operations. (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
  • Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): UGS reports 4 Russian attacks repelled (Apr 1). Positional fighting continues.

III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity

  • Ongoing Threat: Aviation weapon threat active for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UA AF, 08:28 UTC Apr 2).
  • Overnight Strikes (Summary): Russia launched 74 drones (54 Shahed-type) targeting Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk (energy infrastructure hits). Ukraine reported 54 Shahed shootdowns. (Zelenskyy / Operativnyi ZSU / UGS, Apr 2).
  • KAB Usage: Heavy use continues, especially Sumy Oblast (~50 KABs Apr 1-2) and Kursk Operational Zone (41 KABs Apr 1). (Zelenskyy / UGS, Apr 2).
  • Ukrainian Drone Actions:
    • Presidential Bde + 31st Mech Bde destroyed RU vehicles with FPVs (Novopavlivsk). (UGS, Apr 2).
    • Claimed shootdown of 4 Russian 'Molniya' drones using FPV interceptor drones. (Operativnyi ZSU / Sternenko, Apr 2).
    • Claimed shootdown of Russian Lancet loitering munition by APEX Predator unit / Canadian volunteer UAV operator. (Tsaplienko, Apr 2).
    • FPV strike destroyed RU RKhM-4 chemical reconnaissance vehicle (BTR-80 based) carrying infantry. (Butusov Plus, Apr 2).
  • Russian Drone Actions:
    • 'Molniya' UAV strike claimed in Kharkiv region. (MoD Russia, Apr 2).
    • FPV strikes claimed inside buildings in Tarasivka (Pokrovsk). (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
    • FPV strikes claimed near Bohatyr (Novopavlivsk). (Colonelcassad, Apr 2).
    • FPV strike destroyed abandoned UA BTR near Nikolaevka (Chasiv Yar). (Slivochniy Kapriz, Apr 2).
  • Ukrainian Capabilities: MiG-29 pilot "DENFIX" describes dual role: night air defense (intercepting missiles/drones) and daytime bombing missions. (UA AF, Apr 2).

IV. Other Significant Updates

  • Alleged Chemical Weapons Use (UA Claim): UGS (Apr 1) reiterated claims of systematic Russian use of prohibited chemical munitions (K-51, RG-VO, etc.), alleging 767 cases in March 2025, total 7730 cases since Feb 2023.
  • Foreign Fighters: Image reportedly shows Colombian national killed fighting for Ukraine. (Alex Parker Returns, Apr 2).
  • UA Officer Losses Claimed by RU: Russian sources report alleged KIA of 5 Ukrainian officers (listing names/ranks). (Anatoliy Shtefan, Apr 2).
Previous (2025-04-02 08:16:56Z)

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