Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 08:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes were recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to experience the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (4 attacks), Kharkiv (7 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Potential Future Russian Operations:
Assessments indicate Russia is preparing reserves for another offensive effort, potentially commencing in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
Conflicting reports, including one citing an Azov commander via Russian sources, suggest Russia is preparing for an offensive in April, alleging 2-3 divisions have been training for over a month and are well-equipped with reserves (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2). Russian information operations highlight conflicting Ukrainian statements regarding Russian offensive potential.
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains directed towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and within the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts). Russian forces continue efforts on the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction.
Ukrainian Manpower Policy: The Ukrainian government has increased the reservation quota for employees of critical communal infrastructure enterprises to 75%. Employees of the "Defense Procurement Agency" and "State Logistics Operator" are eligible for 100% reservation (Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Prisoner of War Exchange: An exchange of 1,500 parcels for POWs is planned for April between Russia and Ukraine (RU Source/Moskalkova, Apr 2).
Commemoration: Ukrainian leadership commemorated the 3rd anniversary of the liberation of Kyiv Oblast (April 2, 2022), highlighting the defense of the capital and the resilience shown (UGS/Zelenskyy, Apr 2).
II. Territorial Changes & Control (Assessed/Claimed)
Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts (RU) / Sumy Border:
Russian sources claim the situation is stabilizing. Claimed confirmed clearing/capture of Guyevo (Kursk) (Multiple RU Sources/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2). Assessed Russian advances along the Sumy border (near Zhuravka/Basovka line, RU claim expansion of control near Basovka). Geolocated Russian advance East of Oleshnia (Kursk).
Fighting reported ongoing near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). Russian sources claim remnants of Ukrainian forces pushed from Hoholivka.
RU CLAIM: Repelled Ukrainian armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) on Sumy Oblast territory; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 Ukrainian POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Ongoing operations by Russian unit "Sigma" reported in border region (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on Ukrainian forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Kursk/Sumy Border): Situation near Zhuravka (Sumy border) described as tense, alleging Ukrainian forces well dug-in, hindering Russian advance; claims full control of Zhuravka is premature. Gradual expulsion of Ukrainian groups claimed near Oleshnia (Kursk), noting frequent Ukrainian troop rotations. Claimed repelling 5 Ukrainian breakthrough attempts towards alleged encircled Ukrainian forces near Sudzha (Kursk). Claimed ongoing strikes on Ukrainian rear areas (logistics/reserves) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU LOGISTICS NEED: Fundraising appeal noted for vehicles (UAZ/Niva/ATV) for Russian Marine units near Sudzha (Kursk), indicating transport needs and vehicle attrition (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Direction: Assessed Russian advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded zone of control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). OTU Kharkiv reports 7 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1). OTU Kharkiv reports Russian losses (Apr 1): 101 personnel (65 irrecoverable), 1 arty system, 6 vehicles, 14 spec equip, 41 UAVs destroyed/damaged. 73 Russian shelters and 1 ammo storage destroyed. RU CLAIM (Disinformation): Russian sources claim large numbers of UA military, foreign medics (allegedly for organ harvesting), Latinos in NATO uniforms, and EW-equipped vehicles observed in Kharkiv city (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Kupyansk Direction: Russian sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for 3 days, claiming northern part secured. Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. Ukrainian forces counterattacking (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). Persistent Russian assaults reported on positions of 15th NGU Bde ("Kara-Dag") and adjacent units, exploiting complex terrain; Ukrainian UAV units actively countering with drone drops (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 2). UGS reports 11 Russian attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
Lyman Direction: Assessed Russian advances North of Novoliubivka (geolocated) (ISW). Potential preparations for large-scale Russian offensive aiming for Borova (Kharkiv Oblast) or Lyman (ISW Assessment reinforced by Tsaplienko citing ISW, Apr 2). Potential Russian focus shift NW from Ivanivka towards Nove, Katerynivka, and Borova (ISW assessment via UA Source, Apr 2). Russian sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). ISW notes Russian force grouping includes elements of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Divisions, claims of 10:1 force ratio in some areas, and ongoing personnel replenishment without rotation. UGS reports 17 Russian attacks repelled towards Torske, Nove, Myrne, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed Ukrainian UAV control point, Starlink system, and up to 3 personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044550) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). UA Action: Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade reported recapture of Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast) (UA Source citing 3rd Aslt Bde, Apr 2).
Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne reported (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting initiated for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). Claimed 300m advance towards Hryhorivka previously. UGS reports 15 Russian attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):RU CLAIM: Russian "Nevsky" Brigade (Volunteer Corps, GpV South) advanced 2.5km on this direction in the past two weeks (TASS, Apr 2). UGS reported **7 combat
