Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 07:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to see the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (3 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Potential Future Russian Operations:
Russia is assessed to be preparing reserves for another offensive attempt, potentially in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
Conflicting reports cite an Azov commander suggesting Russia is preparing for an offensive in April, with 2-3 divisions reportedly training for over a month and well-equipped with reserves in their sector (RU Source citing Azov / Tsaplienko / Operativnyi ZSU, Apr 2).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains on Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole and in the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts).
RU sources claim situation stabilizing. Claim confirmed clearing/capture of Guyevo (Kursk) (Multiple RU Sources/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2). Assessed advances along the Sumy border (near Zhuravka/Basovka line, RU claim expansion of control near Basovka). Geolocated advance E of Oleshnia (Kursk).
Fighting reported ongoing near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). RU claims remnants of UA forces pushed from Hoholivka.
RU CLAIM: Repelled UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) on Sumy Oblast territory; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 UA POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Ongoing operations by RU unit "Sigma" reported in border region (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Airstrike): VKS conducted an airstrike using a FAB-3000 bomb against a dam near Popovka (Belgorod Oblast border area), alleging Ukrainian forces used it to transfer armored vehicles into Belgorod Oblast («Зона СВО», Apr 2).
RU CLAIM (Kursk/Sumy Border): Situation near Zhuravka (Sumy border) described as tense, alleging UA forces well dug-in, hindering RU advance; claims full control of Zhuravka is premature. Gradual expulsion of UA groups claimed near Oleshnia (Kursk), noting frequent UA troop rotations. Claimed repelling 5 UA breakthrough attempts towards alleged encircled UA forces near Sudzha (Kursk). Claimed ongoing strikes on UA rear areas (logistics/reserves) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU CLAIMED STRIKES (Sumy Oblast): VKS strikes near Yunakivka (19 total overnight). Artillery destroyed new UA units/equipment in Shalyhyne (nature reserve, school, council buildings). Artillery/FAB strikes on Krasnopillya (House of Culture, PVDs) claimed 17 UA KIA (incl. officers), >30 WIA. Strike on horse farm near Myropillya (alleged armor concealment) and shoe factory PVD. NAR strike on railway hub in Khutir-Mykhailivskyi (alleged armor repair). Ammo depot destroyed in Velyka Pysarivka. Strike on Admiral Hotel in Verkhnya Syrovatka (alleged foreign contingent) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
RU LOGISTICS NEED: Fundraising appeal for 2x UAZ/Niva vehicles and 1x ATV for Marine units operating near Sudzha (Kursk), highlighting transport needs for tasks including ammunition resupply and MEDEVAC due to high vehicle attrition (Dva Mayora, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Direction: Assessed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded zone of control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). UGS reports 7 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1). RU CLAIM (Disinformation): RU sources claim large numbers of UA military, foreign medics (allegedly for organ harvesting), Latinos in NATO uniforms, and EW-equipped vehicles observed in Kharkiv city (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Kupyansk Direction: RU sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for 3 days, claiming northern part secured. Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. UA forces counterattacking (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). Persistent RU assaults reported on positions of 15th NGU Bde ("Kara-Dag") and adjacent units, exploiting complex terrain; UA UAV units actively countering with drone drops (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 2). UGS reports 11 RU attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
Lyman Direction: Assessed advances N of Novoliubivka (geolocated) (ISW). Potential preparations for large-scale RU offensive aiming for Borova (Kharkiv Oblast) or Lyman (ISW Assessment reinforced by Tsaplienko citing ISW, Apr 2). Potential RU focus shift NW from Ivanivka towards Nove, Katerynivka, and Borova (ISW assessment via UA Source, Apr 2). RU sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). ISW notes RU force grouping includes elements of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Divisions, claims of 10:1 force ratio in some areas, and ongoing personnel replenishment without rotation. UGS reports 17 RU attacks repelled towards Torske, Novoho, Myrne, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and up to 3 personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044550) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). UA Action: UA 3rd Assault Brigade reported recapture of Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast) (UA Source citing 3rd Aslt Bde, Apr 2).
Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting started for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). Claimed 300m advance towards Hryhorivka previously. UGS reports 15 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
Toretsk Direction: RU sources claim forces developing success near Panteleimonivka and attacking southern outskirts of Valentynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). (Previous DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Panteleimonivka). UGS reports 14 RU attacks repelled near Leonidivka, Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka (Apr 1).
Pokrovsk Direction: Assessed advances (ISW). Geolocated advances NW of Andriivka (ISW). Claimed 700m advance S of Pokrovsk near Bohdanivka (Apr 1, unverified). UGS reports 64 attacks stopped near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Berezivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Sribne, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriivka, and towards Bohdanivka, Novoserhiivka, Romanivka, Pokrovsk (Apr 1). RU CLAIM/ACTIVITY: Drone operators ("KVN" / 33rd MRR / 20th GMSD) conducted strikes targeting UA forces fortified in buildings in Tarasivka. Mention of using "Kolobok" explosive charges against smaller structures, but favoring drones for larger buildings (Arkhangel Spetsnaza / Dva Mayora, Apr 2). RU UAV units (incl. supply via public funding) active providing recon and assault support (Kotsnews, Apr 2).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Capture of Razliv (RU MoD, Apr 1; ISW map shows geolocated RU presence/advance in Rozlyv). Geolocated advances on the eastern outskirts of Bohdanivka. Assessed advances near Kostyantynopil and Dniproenerhiya. (ISW/RU Sources). RU CLAIM (Apr 2): GpV "Vostok" continues operations towards Komar, Otradne, Bohatyr. Consolidating positions in and around Razliv, conducting demining. Inflicting damage on UA positions towards Bohatyr. Claimed front straightened towards Bohatyr from E/SE in last 2 days. Claimed advance in Veseloye (W bank of Mokri Yaly). Fighting ongoing SW towards Shevchenko and advancing in Vilne Pole, facing UA counterattacks aimed at preventing breakthrough towards Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblast borders (Voenkor Kotenok, Apr 2). UGS reports 8 RU attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Cooperative artillery/drone strike by 305th Artillery Brigade and 57th GMRB (GpV "Vostok") destroyed a UA UAV control point in Шевченко (Shevchenko) on the South-Donetsk direction (Voin DV, Apr 2).
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Orikhiv):
RU CLAIM: Capture of Lobkove by 247th VDV Regiment after assault and air activity (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2). WarGonzo reports ongoing positional battles with RU attempts to expand control zone and UA counterattacks; no significant LoC changes.
UA Southern Command (Apr 2): 5 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne and towards Novopil (Huliaipole direction, Apr 1). Airstrikes reported on Zelene Pole, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne. 5 unsuccessful RU attacks repelled towards Novodanylivka, Stepove (Orikhiv direction, Apr 1).
RU CLAIM (Artillery Strike): D-30 artillery (Dnepr Group) struck a UA UAV team in the Orikhiv direction (RU MoD, Apr 2).
RU Intel Claim: RU sources ("NgP raZVedka", Apr 2) claim arrival of elite UA GUR units (incl. foreign mercenaries - "Piraty" / Romanian "Getica" / "Ronin Team" / UAV platoon) in Zaporizhzhia city from Kyiv. Claim arrival of "Legion of Freedom of Russia" units near Orikhiv. Claim detection of unusual radio traffic and additional comms lines near Orikhiv. Speculate potential UA operation near Stepove/Mali Shcherbaky to regain positions. Requires verification.
Air Threat: UA AF warning (07:04 UTC Apr 2): RU recon UAV active near Zaporizhzhia, potential targeting guide.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):UA Southern Command (Apr 2): 3 RU attacks stopped (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: FAB strike destroyed a building used by UA forces for concentration/shelter (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2).
Specific Air Strike Locations (UGS, Apr 1): Myropilske, Naumivka, Prohody, Uhroidy, Krasnopillya, Velykyi Prikil, Turya, Mykhailivske, Petrushivka (Sumy Oblast); Zelene Pole (Donetsk Oblast); Zaporizke, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Komyshuvakha (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Kursk Ops Zone: 27 air strikes (41 KABs) (UGS, Apr 1). UA Southern Command: Airstrikes on Zelene Pole, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) (Apr 1).
Ongoing Air Threats (as of 07:15 UTC Apr 2):ACTIVE. UA AF warning: Enemy tactical aviation activity on the eastern direction; threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts (06:54 UTC). UA AF warning: Launch of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast (06:42 UTC). UA AF warning: Launch of KABs towards Sumy Oblast (06:35 UTC). UA AF warning: Enemy tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction; threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts (06:21 UTC).
Naval Missile Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers remain deployed in the Black Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 8 missiles (Ukrainian Navy via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2, morning). No Russian vessels reported in the Azov Sea.
Izium (Kharkiv Oblast): Civilian man (50yo) severely injured (traumatic amputation of right hand) after bringing home and attempting to dismantle an unknown explosive device (Kharkiv OVA Head Syniehubov, Apr 2).
Kherson Oblast: 1 KIA, 9 WIA reported from RU strikes over past day (SDF South, Apr 2).
Taganrog (Rostov Oblast, RU): Damage to cars, windows in houses reported from alleged UA drone attack overnight (Zona SVO / WarGonzo, Apr 2). 2 civilians sought medical help (WarGonzo).
Kursk (RU): Damage to multi-story building reported from alleged UA drone attack overnight; no casualties reported (WarGonzo). Residents returned after temporary evacuation (TASS).
Kurakhove (Occupied Donetsk): RU sources report fighting near the city, restrictions on leaving, pervasive drone threat, ongoing shelling. RU police established, issuing RU passports (>600 issued recently to city/area residents). Reconstruction not started due to proximity of fighting. RU "siloviki" reportedly providing basic aid (Mash na Donbasse, Apr 2).
Ukrainian Actions & Capabilities:
Air Defense: Destroyed 41 Shahed-type UAVs overnight Apr 1-2 (UA AF). SDF South claimed 25 Shaheds destroyed in their zone.
Ground Combat: Repelled numerous attacks across multiple axes. Continued operations in Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts reported.
Drone Operations: Actively countering RU assaults with drone drops (Kupyansk, OTU Kharkiv). Drone unit "SPEAR Group B" (118 ObTrO) claimed strike on RU infantry hiding under damaged BMP (Sternenko, Apr 2). Fundraising continues for UA-produced "Perevertni" FPV drones (Butusov Plus, Apr 2).
Equipment: Showcased Kozak-5 armored vehicles used by 22nd Mech Brigade (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 2). Emphasis on weapon maintenance by 78th Air Assault Regiment (DShV, Apr 2).
Mobilization/Reservation: Government updated reservation rules: 100% reservation for employees of MoD procurement agencies ("Agency of Defense Procurement", "State Logistics Operator"); up to 75% reservation now possible for communal enterprise workers; salary requirement (>20k UAH) removed for some enterprises (RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2).
Internal Security: SBU detained two individuals (21M, 22F) in Lviv, alleging they were recruited by Russia via Telegram for payment to plant an explosive device at a police station. Claimed device retrieved from dead drop, plot foiled (UA Prosecutor General, Apr 2).
Return of Children: Two children returned from occupied territories: an orphaned boy whose mother was killed by RU forces, and a girl with her mother previously unable to leave (Head of Presidential Office Yermak / RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2).
Alleged Chemical Weapons Use (UA Claim): UGS (Apr 1) reported systematic Russian use of special munitions with dangerous chemical substances (K-51, RG-VO, unspecified types). 767 cases claimed in March 2025.
Political/Diplomatic Context:
Potential US Sanctions: Bipartisan group of 50 US Senators reportedly introduced bill proposing 500% tariffs on imports from countries buying RU energy/commodities, plus primary/secondary sanctions on Russia/supporters, conditional on failure of peace talks or RU violation of agreement (The Hill/TASS/RBC-Ukraina/RVvoenkor, Apr 1-2).
Potential US Policy Shift (RU Source Claim): RU sources (Rybar citing WashPost leak) claim alleged memo from US SecDef indicates shift towards Indo-Pacific focus (Taiwan/China), counter-terrorism, Houthi/Iran containment, and expectation for Europe/NATO to handle "Russian threat" independently. Trump reportedly questioning NATO Art. 5. Requires verification, potential IO.
Potential RU-US Talks: Reports of Putin's Special Rep. Kirill Dmitriev visiting Washington for talks with Steven Witkoff (Trump associate) on relations/ending war; sanctions allegedly temporarily lifted for visa (CNN via Tsaplienko, Apr 2). Requires verification.
