Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 2, 2025, 06:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Developments
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. 176 combat clashes recorded on April 1 (UGS, 08:00 UTC Apr 2). The Pokrovsk Direction continues to see the highest intensity (64 attacks repelled/stopped on Apr 1). Significant activity persists on Lyman (17 attacks), Siversk (15 attacks), Toretsk (14 attacks), Kupyansk (11 attacks), Novopavlivsk (8 attacks), Orikhiv (5 attacks), Huliaipole (5 attacks), Prydniprovsky (3 attacks) and in the Kursk Operational Zone (18 clashes).
Potential Future Operations:
Russia is assessed to be preparing reserves for another offensive attempt, potentially in May (Head of UA Centre for Countering Disinformation, Apr 2).
Conflicting reports cite an Azov commander suggesting Russia is preparing for an offensive in April, with 2-3 divisions reportedly training for over a month and well-equipped with reserves (RU Source citing Azov, Apr 2).
Russian Main Efforts & Claims:
Primary offensive focus remains on Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure continues on Lyman, Siversk, Kupyansk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Huliaipole and in the Kursk/Belgorod Operational Zones (targeting Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts).
Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts (RU): RU sources claim situation stabilizing. Claim confirmed clearing/capture of Guyevo (Kursk) (Multiple RU Sources/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2). Assessed advances along the Sumy border (near Zhuravka/Basovka line, RU claim expansion of control near Basovka). Geolocated advance E of Oleshnia (Kursk). Fighting reported ongoing near Oleshnia, Guyevo, Popovka, Demidovka (RU Sources, Apr 2). RU claims remnants of UA forces pushed from Hoholivka. RU CLAIM: Repelled UA armored breakthrough attempt into Krasnoyaruzhsky district (Belgorod Obl.) on Sumy Oblast territory; destroying BREM M88A2, BMP, BTR M-113, damaging UA tank (Dva Mayora, Apr 2). RU CLAIM: GpV "Sever" captured 2 UA POWs (RU Source, Apr 2). Ongoing operations by RU unit "Sigma" reported in border region (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). Spetsnaz "Anvar" claimed strikes on UA forces in Demidovka (RVvoenkor via Operatsiya Z, Apr 2). RU CLAIM (Airstrike): Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) conducted an airstrike using a FAB-3000 bomb against a dam near Popovka (Belgorod Oblast border area), alleging Ukrainian forces used it to transfer armored vehicles into Belgorod Oblast («Зона СВО», Apr 2). RU CLAIM (Kursk/Sumy Border): Situation near Zhuravka (Sumy border) described as tense, alleging UA forces well dug-in, hindering RU advance; claims full control of Zhuravka is premature. Gradual expulsion of UA groups claimed near Oleshnia (Kursk), noting frequent UA troop rotations. Claimed repelling 5 UA breakthrough attempts towards alleged encircled UA forces near Sudzha (Kursk). Claimed ongoing strikes on UA rear areas (logistics/reserves) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2). RU CLAIMED STRIKES (Sumy Oblast): VKS strikes near Yunakivka (19 total overnight). Artillery destroyed new UA units/equipment in Shalyhyne (nature reserve, school, council buildings). Artillery/FAB strikes on Krasnopillya (House of Culture, PVDs) claimed 17 UA KIA (incl. officers), >30 WIA. Strike on horse farm near Myropillya (alleged armor concealment) and shoe factory PVD. NAR strike on railway hub in Khutir-Mykhailivskyi (alleged armor repair). Ammo depot destroyed in Velyka Pysarivka. Strike on Admiral Hotel in Verkhnya Syrovatka (alleged foreign contingent) (Dnevnik Desantnika, Apr 2).
Kharkiv Direction: Assessed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk (ISW). RU CLAIM: Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near Lyptsi and expanded zone of control near Vovchansk (TASS/Marochko, Apr 2). UGS reports 7 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk, Krasne Pershe, Kamyanka, Lyptsi (Apr 1).
Kupyansk Direction: RU sources report advance towards Kondrashivka with street fighting ongoing for 3 days, claiming northern part secured. Attempts ongoing to secure Mala Shapkovka. UA forces counterattacking (Voenkor Kotenok/Rybar, Apr 2). Persistent RU assaults reported on positions of 15th NGU Bde ("Kara-Dag") and adjacent units, exploiting complex terrain; UA UAV units actively countering with drone drops (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 2). UGS reports 11 RU attacks repelled near Pischane, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhliakivka, Zahryzove (Apr 1).
Lyman Direction: Assessed advances N of Novoliubivka (geolocated) (ISW). Potential preparations for large-scale RU offensive aiming for Borova or Lyman (ISW Assessment, reinforced by ASTRA citing ISW Apr 2). Potential RU focus shift NW from Ivanivka towards Nove, Katerynivka, and Borova (Kharkiv Oblast) (ISW assessment via UA Source, Apr 2). RU sources claim continued attacks towards Nove and Katerynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). ISW notes RU force grouping includes elements of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Divisions, claims of 10:1 force ratio in some areas, and ongoing personnel replenishment without rotation. UGS reports 17 RU attacks repelled towards Torske, Novoho, Myrne, Novomykhailivka, Zelena Dolyna (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: 16th Spetsnaz Brigade (GpV "Zapad") destroyed UA UAV control point, Starlink system, and up to 3 personnel in Serebryansky Forest (48.977140 38.044554) (Colonelcassad, Apr 2). UA Action: UA 3rd Assault Brigade reported recapture of Nadiia (Luhansk Oblast) (UA Source citing 3rd Aslt Bde, Apr 2).
Siversk Direction: Advance near Sribne (DeepState map update, Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Fighting started for Hryhorivka (TASS/Rybar, Apr 2). Claimed 300m advance towards Hryhorivka previously. UGS reports 15 RU attacks repelled near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Dariivka, and towards Verkhnokamyanske, Serebryanka (Apr 1).
Toretsk Direction: RU sources claim forces developing success near Panteleimonivka and attacking southern outskirts of Valentynivka (Rybar, Apr 2). (Previous DeepState confirmation of RU advance near Panteleimonivka). UGS reports 14 RU attacks repelled near Leonidivka, Dachne, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk, and towards Dyliivka (Apr 1).
Pokrovsk Direction: Assessed advances (ISW). Geolocated advances NW of Andriivka (ISW). Claimed 700m advance S of Pokrovsk near Bohdanivka (Apr 1, unverified). UGS reports 64 attacks stopped near Kalynove, Tarasivka, Berezivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Oleksandropil, Sribne, Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Andriivka, and towards Bohdanivka, Novoserhiivka, Romanivka, Pokrovsk (Apr 1). RU CLAIM/ACTIVITY: Drone operators ("KVN" / 33rd MRR) conducted strikes targeting UA forces fortified in buildings in Tarasivka. Mention of using "Kolobok" explosive charges against smaller structures (Dva Mayora, Apr 2). RU UAV units active providing recon and assault support (Kotsnews, Apr 2).
Novopavlivsk Direction: Capture of Razliv (RU MoD, Apr 1; ISW map shows geolocated RU presence/advance in Rozlyv). Geolocated advances on the eastern outskirts of Bohdanivka. Assessed advances near Kostyantynopil and Dniproenerhiya. (ISW/RU Sources). RU CLAIM: GpV "Vostok" advanced 500m along the front and 200m deep near Veseloye. Ongoing fighting for Vilne Pole (Dva Mayora/Rybar, Apr 2). UGS reports 8 RU attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: Cooperative artillery/drone strike by 305th Artillery Brigade and 57th GMRB (GpV "Vostok") destroyed a UA UAV control point in Шевченко (Shevchenko) on the South-Donetsk direction (Voin DV, Apr 2). Note: ISW previously reported UA counterattack near Shevchenko on Pokrovsk axis.
Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole/Orikhiv): WarGonzo reports ongoing positional battles with RU attempts to expand control zone and UA counterattacks; no significant LoC changes. UA Southern Command (Apr 2): 5 RU attacks repelled near Pryvilne and towards Novopil (Huliaipole direction, Apr 1). Airstrikes reported on Zelene Pole, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne. 5 unsuccessful RU attacks repelled towards Novodanylivka, Stepove (Orikhiv direction, Apr 1). RU Intel Claim: RU sources ("NgP raZVedka", Apr 2) claim arrival of elite UA GUR units (incl. foreign mercenaries - "Piraty" / Romanian "Getica" / "Ronin Team" / UAV platoon) in Zaporizhzhia city from Kyiv. Claim arrival of "Legion of Freedom of Russia" units near Orikhiv. Claim detection of unusual radio traffic and additional comms lines near Orikhiv. Speculate potential UA operation near Stepove/Mali Shcherbaky to regain positions. Requires verification.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):UA Southern Command (Apr 2): 3 RU attacks stopped (Apr 1). RU CLAIM: FAB strike destroyed a building used by UA forces for concentration/shelter (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Apr 2).
Specific Air Strike Locations (UGS, Apr 1): Myropilske, Naumivka, Prohody, Uhroidy, Krasnopillya, Velykyi Prikil, Turya, Mykhailivske, Petrushivka (Sumy Oblast); Zelene Pole (Donetsk Oblast); Zaporizke, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Komyshuvakha (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Kursk Ops Zone: 27 air strikes (41 KABs) (UGS, Apr 1). UA Southern Command: Airstrikes on Zelene Pole, Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) (Apr 1).
Ongoing Air Threats (as of 06:45 UTC Apr 2):ACTIVE. UA AF warning: Enemy tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction; threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts (06:21 UTC). UA AF warning: Launch of KABs towards Sumy Oblast (06:35 UTC). UA AF warning: Launch of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast (06:42 UTC).
Naval Missile Threat:ACTIVE.2 Russian Kalibr carriers remain deployed in the Black Sea, capable of launching a total salvo of up to 8 missiles (Ukrainian Navy via RBC-Ukraina, Apr 2, morning). No Russian vessels reported in the Azov Sea.
Civilian Impact (Updated Apr 2, 06:45 UTC):
Kharkiv City:CONFIRMED: 9 civilians injured (acute stress reaction - incl. 9m boy, 7y boy, 16y girl) from UAV attack Apr 2 (00:20-01:00 UTC) targeting Kholodnohirskyi district. Damage to two civilian enterprises (incl. "Promsvyaz" plant per RU claim, causing large fires), >10 private houses, outbuildings, vehicles. (UA Prosecutor General/SES/ASTRA/RBC-Ukraina/Operatyvnyi ZSU/Syniehubov/RVvoenkor, Apr 2). Debris from downed Shahed damaged windows in Zlatopil (Lozivskyi district) (Syniehubov, Apr 1
