Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 1, 2025, 11:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Assessment
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH along the Eastern Front (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions) and the Kursk/Belgorod border region. The Pokrovsk Direction exhibits the highest ground combat intensity, comparable to late Jan/late 2024 levels. Ukrainian General Staff reported 183 clashes in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Apr 1.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus persists on the Pokrovsk direction. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk. Cross-border operations are maintained in the Kursk Operational Zone with potential intent towards Sumy Oblast. Pressure also noted on the Kupyansk and Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) axes.
UGS (Apr 1, 06:00 UTC) reported repelling 27 Russian assaults in the Kursk operational zone and 1 assault on the Kherson axis. RU MoD (Apr 1, 11:03 UTC) subsequently claimed inflicting over 180 personnel losses on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction.
OTU "Kharkiv" (Apr 1, 09:23 UTC) reported repelling 7 RU attempts near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) in the past 24 hours. Head of Kharkiv OVA (Apr 1, 10:48 UTC) confirmed Kupyansk community remains the epicenter of attacks, sustaining 7 KABs and MLRS strikes in the past day, causing casualties and infrastructure damage. March 2025 saw 4495 shelling incidents and 81 KABs against the Kupyansk community.
Key Threat Vectors: The Kursk Operational Zone remains significant due to persistent RU cross-border pressure. The Pokrovsk Axis faces the most intense RU ground attacks. Sustained Russian air/missile/drone strikes continue against energy infrastructure and civilian areas.
II. Territorial Changes & Claims
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
CONFIRMED (RU CLAIM): Russian MoD officially announced and released video (Apr 1) confirming the capture of Rozlyv (Donetsk Oblast) by 36th GMRB/430th MRR. RU claims the operation resulted in >150 claimed UA personnel losses.
RU sources claim >90 sq km captured in South Donetsk direction during March.
RU sources suggest Bohatyr is the likely next RU objective in this sector.
Kursk/Sumy Border Region:
RU sources claim progressive consolidation within Kursk Oblast, asserting only Oleshnia and Gornal remain under limited UA control. Fighting claimed along Volodymyrivka–Zhuravka–Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Advance >1 km from Melova towards Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) claimed.
CONFLICTING CLAIM (Kursk/Sumy): Some RU sources claim liberation of >390 sq km in Kursk/Sumy during March, including Sudzha. This claim, particularly regarding Sudzha, remains unverified and contradicts official Ukrainian assessments and RU MoD reporting.
Belgorod: Contested areas near Popovka/Demydovka persist (Apr 1 reports).
Ukrainian Assessment (DeepState, Apr 1): Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian territory in March 2025. While RU advances continue, the rate of gain significantly decreased (~6x) compared to late 2024. However, RU offensive intensity has increased on several axes, notably Pokrovsk.
Contested Areas: Vovchansk (Kharkiv); Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod); Oleshnia/Gornal (Kursk); multiple settlements along Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv axes; Left Bank Kherson bridgeheads.
III. Air, Missile, Drone & ISR Activity
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, missiles, and drones targeting military positions, energy infrastructure, and civilian areas. A summary of strikes (Mar 31-Apr 1) confirms widespread use of UMPK (KABs), MLRS, and Kh-69 missiles across Donbas, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson Oblasts.
Energy Infrastructure: Continued targeting. Recent strikes impacted Kherson (Apr 1 morning). Kharkiv power grid reported stable after repairs from Mar 30 strike (Kharkiv OVA, Apr 1).
KAB/Airstrikes: Ongoing heavy use. 7 KABs hit Kupyansk community (Kharkiv OVA, Apr 1). Repeated launches towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA AF, Apr 1 morning). Visuals confirm significant damage in Pokrovsk city (Apr 1) and Korabelnyi district, Kherson (Apr 1).
Drone Strikes:No Shahed attacks recorded overnight Mar 31 - Apr 1 (first instance in 2025). Heavy kamikaze drone use persists (70 in OTU Kharkiv zone reported Apr 1). Alleged UA UAV strike on bus in Horlivka (RU claim, Apr 1, 12 WIA).
Missile Activity: RU launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Kursk Oblast overnight Mar 30/31 (unintercepted). Two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles intercepted near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31 evening).
Ukrainian Air Defense & Counter-Drone:
Successful interception of two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31).
Downing of multiple RU recon drones reported (Apr 1).
Footage (Apr 1) shows UA Air Force personnel using heavy machine guns in mobile tactics ("hunting" from vehicles) against Shaheds on the southern front.
Continued development/approval of new drone types (fiber-optic, anti-drone UAVs with shotguns).
Russian Air Capabilities: Observation (Mar 31) of a Russian Beriev A-50 AWACS being towed suggests potential non-operational status.
NATO ISR Activity: Three NATO ISR aircraft (2 Polish M-28, 1 Swedish Gulfstream IV ELINT) detected operating near NW Russian border (Finnish Gulf, St Petersburg/Pskov area) on Apr 1.
IV. Ground Operations & Territorial Control (Select Axes)
Belgorod Oblast: Small arms fighting reported near Demydovka and Popovka (Apr 1).
Kharkiv Axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian attempts near Vovchansk (OTU Kharkiv, Apr 1). Kupyansk community remains focus of RU attacks (7 KABs, MLRS yesterday); high tempo of RU shelling (4495 incidents in March).
Toretsk Axis: Clashes ongoing. DeepState map confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka. UA National Police captured RU personnel (Apr 1).
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity. Clashes reported across numerous settlements. Visuals confirm significant destruction in Pokrovsk city.
Novopavlivsk Axis: Clashes ongoing. RU MoD confirms capture of Rozlyv (Apr 1). RU claims >90 sq km gain in March. RU sources suggest Bohatyr next objective. Anecdotal report (Butusov, Apr 1) of captured RU soldier (127th MRD/394 Rgt) on Kurakhove direction suggests presence of units from Far East.
Southern Front:
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Clashes near multiple settlements. RU UAV operators ("Molniya" unit, 71st Rgt) reported active near Novodanylivka (Apr 1). Previous significant RU offensive claims (Mar 31) near Shcherbaki, Lobkove, Kamyanske need verification.
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian assault (UGS, Apr 1 morning). Persistent fighting near Antonivsky Bridge area.
V. Other Key Developments
Information Warfare & Counter-Intelligence:
Ukrainian Success: SBU detained alleged RU intel-linked PR agency operators in Kyiv Oblast (Apr 1).
Russian Narratives: Continued claims of gains (incl. unverified Sudzha); propaganda videos (Chasiv Yar evacuation, Rozlyv capture); alleged UA UAV strike on Horlivka bus; narratives on draft evasion (Tisa river body). Captured RU soldier video (Butusov) provides counter-narrative on forced contracts/poor treatment.
Cyber Warfare: Massive DDoS attack reported against Russian Railways (RZhD) website/app, confirmed by RZhD (Apr 1).
Mobilization & Personnel:
Ukraine: Changes to employee reservation rules effective Apr 1; companies require updated critical status. Applications streamlined via Diia portal. Meeting held by UA Coordination HQ with families of 4th Tank Brigade POWs (Apr 1).
Russia: Reports of forced contracts, poor treatment, and use of punishment pits for refusing orders (captured soldier testimony, Apr 1). Ongoing deployment of personnel from regions like Lipetsk (Apr 1).
Tactical Adaptations:
Russian: Continued heavy reliance on KABs/drones. Use of motorcycles for assaults (Kramatorsk). Use of FPVs with auto-targeting vs EW. Possible deployment of armed UGVs. Adding anti-drone cages.
Ukrainian: Mobile anti-drone tactics (vehicle-mounted HMGs). Approval/deployment of new drone types. Ongoing demining critical for agricultural season.
International Context:
NATO Exercise: "Sea Shield 25" begins in Romania/Black Sea (Apr 1-11) involving 12 nations.
German Support: FM Baerbock announces planned financial aid: €3bn+€130m (2025), €8.25bn (2026-29).
Regional Politics: Internal political developments in Israel (SHABAK) and Moldova (Gagauzia) noted, but no direct impact on Ukraine operations.
