Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 1, 2025, 10:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Assessment
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH along the Eastern Front (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions) and the Kursk/Belgorod border region. UGS reported 183 clashes in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Apr 1. The Pokrovsk Direction exhibits the highest ground combat intensity, returning to levels comparable to late Jan/late 2024.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus persists on the Pokrovsk direction. Sustained pressure continues towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk. Cross-border operations are maintained in the Kursk Operational Zone with possible intent towards Sumy Oblast. Pressure also noted on the Kupyansk and Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) axes.
Territorial Changes & Claims:
Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk):
CONFIRMED (RU CLAIM): Russian MoD officially announced the capture of Rozlyv (Donetsk Oblast) on Apr 1 (09:08 UTC), corroborated by multiple sources including RU MoD video release (Apr 1, 10:39 UTC) showing flag planting by 36th GMRB/430th MRR. RU claims the 10-day operation involved clearing ~400 structures and resulted in >150 claimed UA personnel losses. Demining operations reported underway.
RU sources claim >90 sq km captured in South Donetsk direction during March (Dniproenerhiya, Pryvilne, Kostyantynopil, Rozlyv).
RU sources suggest Bohatyr is the likely next RU objective in this sector.
Kursk/Sumy Border Region:
RU sources claim progressive consolidation within Kursk Oblast, asserting only Oleshnia and Gornal remain under limited UA control. Fighting claimed along Volodymyrivka–Zhuravka–Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Advance >1 km from Melova towards Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) claimed.
CONFLICTING CLAIM (Kursk/Sumy): Some RU sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 29/Apr 1) claim liberation of >390 sq km in Kursk/Sumy during March, including Sudzha. This claim, particularly regarding Sudzha, remains unverified and contradicts official Ukrainian assessments and RU MoD reporting. Other RU sources (Mar 29) claimed full control of Veselovka (Sumy), which UA DPSU denied.
Belgorod: Contested areas near Popovka/Demydovka persist (Mar 29/Apr 1 reports).
Ukrainian Assessment (DeepState, Apr 1): Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian territory in March 2025. While RU advances continue, the rate of gain significantly decreased (~6x) compared to late 2024. However, RU offensive intensity has increased on several axes, notably Pokrovsk.
Contested Areas: Vovchansk (Kharkiv); Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod); Oleshnia/Gornal (Kursk); multiple settlements along Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv axes; Left Bank Kherson bridgeheads.
UGS (Apr 1, 06:00 UTC) reported repelling 27 Russian assaults in the Kursk operational zone and 1 assault on the Kherson axis.
OTU "Kharkiv" (Apr 1, 09:23 UTC) reported repelling 7 RU attempts near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) in the past 24 hours. Previous report (Mar 29) noted repelling 4 RU attempts near Vovchansk/Kamianka.
President Zelenskyy (Mar 29) stated ongoing UA activity on RU territory prevents RU entry into Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts.
Key Threat Vectors: The Kursk Operational Zone remains significant due to persistent RU cross-border pressure. The Pokrovsk Axis faces the most intense RU ground attacks. Sustained Russian air/missile/drone strikes continue against energy infrastructure and civilian areas.
II. Air, Missile, Drone & ISR Activity
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, missiles, and drones targeting military positions, energy infrastructure, and civilian areas.
Energy Infrastructure: Russia continues targeting UA energy infrastructure. Recent strikes impacted Kherson (Apr 1 morning, 45k residents affected), Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblast. RU MoD (Apr 1) confirmed two UA UAV attacks on RU energy infrastructure (Mar 31): power substations in Novohorivka (Occupied Zaporizhzhia) and Smorodino (Belgorod Oblast, RU).
KAB/Airstrikes: Ongoing. Repeated KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA AF, Apr 1 morning). OTU Kharkiv reported 2 KABs used in its zone (past 24h). Visuals confirm significant damage to residential areas in Pokrovsk city (Apr 1). Previous large-scale KAB use reported (Mar 29 UGS: 179 KABs on UA territory, 44 KABs on Kursk).
Drone Strikes: OTU Kharkiv reported 70 kamikaze drones used in its zone (past 24h). RU sources claim strikes on UA targets in Chernihiv Oblast (Apr 1) and alleged successful strikes on UA command/personnel concentrations in Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Oblasts (Mar 29 RU claims, unverified). No Shahed attacks recorded overnight Mar 31 - Apr 1 (first instance in 2025), following massive strikes Mar 28/29 (>100 Shaheds). Ongoing Shahed attack reported Mar 29 evening impacted Kharkiv city (2 WIA).
Missile Activity: RU launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Kursk Oblast overnight Mar 30/31 (UGS, unintercepted). Two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles intercepted near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31 evening). Ballistic missile strike hit Kryvyi Rih (Mar 29 morning), causing 9 WIA and infrastructure damage.
Alleged UA Strike (Horlivka): RU sources (Colonelcassad, Apr 1, 10:29 UTC) claim a UA UAV struck a bus with civilians on Victory Square in Horlivka, injuring 12.
Ukrainian Air Defense & Counter-Drone:
Successful interception of two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31 evening) confirmed (UA AF).
Reported downing of RU Molniya, Zala, and 3 Supercam drones by UA 77th Airmobile Brigade (Apr 1).
UA GUR experimental anti-drone system successfully intercepted Shaheds (Mar 29). UA sources showcase development/testing of anti-drone UAVs equipped with shotguns (Apr 1, 10:08 UTC).
UA MoD reports approval of ~20 types of fiber-optic controlled drones for use since start of 2025 (Apr 1, 10:26 UTC).
Russian Air Capabilities: Observation (Mar 31) of a Russian Beriev A-50 AWACS being towed suggests potential non-operational status, impacting regional C2/ISR.
NATO ISR Activity: Three NATO ISR aircraft (2 Polish M-28 Skytruck, 1 Swedish Gulfstream IV ELINT) detected operating near NW Russian border (Finnish Gulf, St Petersburg/Pskov area) on Apr 1 (Voenkor Kotenok, 10:38 UTC). Previous SIGINT activity observed over Romania (Mar 29).
III. Ground Operations & Territorial Control
A. Northern Border (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv)
Kursk Operational Zone: Ukrainian forces repelled 27 Russian assaults (UGS, Apr 1 morning). RU MoD (Apr 1) claims inflicting losses on UA forces near Ugroyedy, Turya, Miropolye (Sumy). Intense fighting continues.
RU CLAIMS (Consolidation/Advance): Claims of progressive expulsion of UA units from Kursk Oblast, leaving only Oleshnja and Gornal under limited UA control. Fighting claimed along Volodymyrivka – Zhuravka – Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Advance >1 km from Melova towards Oleshnia claimed (Kursk Oblast). CONFLICTING CLAIM: Capture of Sudzha claimed by some RU sources as part of >390 sq km March gains remains unverified. RU claims (Mar 29) of full control over Veselovka (Sumy) denied by UA DPSU.
Belgorod Oblast: Small arms fighting reported near Demydovka and Popovka (RU Source, Apr 1). RU claims (Mar 29) ongoing clearing near Popovka, securing eastern Demydovka, advances in Popovka/Demydovka areas. Ongoing UA drone activity impacts RU operations.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv Report - Apr 1, past 24h): Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian attempts near Vovchansk. RU forces used 70 kamikaze drones and conducted 464 artillery/MLRS attacks. RU MoD (Apr 1) claims improving tactical position and inflicting losses near Kamenka, Dvurechnaya, Zagoruykovka, Kondrashovka.
Chernihiv Oblast Border Area: RU claims artillery/airstrikes on UA positions near the border (Apr 1).
B. Eastern Front
Kupyansk Axis: Clashes ongoing near Pishchane, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka (UGS). DeepState map indicates RU advance near Kindrashivka. RU sources (Mar 29) claimed liberation of Krasne Pershe, Orlyanske and advances near Kamianka, Topoli (unverified). Destruction of RU bridge near Dvorichna (Mar 30) may hinder RU Oskil river crossing attempts.
Lyman Axis: High intensity. Clashes near Nadiya, Dibrova, Kolodyazi, Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhaylivka (UGS). RU claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka (Mar 30 report). UA 60th Mech Bde recon active (Mar 29).
Siversk Axis: Clashes near Ivano-Daryivka and Bilohorivka (UGS). RU claim 300m advance from Bilohorivka towards Hryhorivka (RU Source, Apr 1). RU MoD (Apr 1) claims improved position near Seversk, Nikolayevka.
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne (UGS). RU MoD claims VDV units repelled UA attacks and destroyed UA armor with FPVs (Apr 1). RU propaganda video depicts civilian evacuation from Chasiv Yar (Apr 1). UA 5th Assault Brigade video (Apr 1, 10:05 UTC) claims stopping RU assault using motorcycles under fog cover, destroying 18 motorcycles, 3 AFVs, 2 vehicles.
Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka (UGS). DeepState map confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU confirmed occupation of Panteleimonivka (Mar 31 report). UA National Police captured RU personnel during defense (Apr 1). RU MoD (Apr 1) claims improved position near Pleshcheyevka, Katerinovka.
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity. Intensity back to late-2024 levels (DeepState). Clashes reported across numerous settlements (UGS). Visuals confirm significant destruction in Pokrovsk city (Apr 1). RU MoD (Apr 1) claims taking more advantageous lines near Grishino, Shevchenko, Krasnoarmeysk, Novosergeyevka, Dimitrov. UA units "Flying Skull", "Apachi", "Ochi ta Zhalo" active with drone strikes (Mar 29). RU Spetsnaz "Vega" claims destroying UA equipment (Mar 29).
Novopavlivsk Axis: Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya and towards Rozlyv (UGS). RU MoD officially confirms capture of Rozlyv (Apr 1). RU claims >90 sq km gain in March, liberating 4 settlements. RU sources suggest Bohatyr as next objective. RU MoD (Apr 1) claims inflicting losses near Bogatyr, Yalta, Zaporozhye, Zelenoye Pole.
C. Southern Front
Huliaipole Axis: Clashes near Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil (UGS).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Clashes near Mali Scherbaky, Lobkove, Scherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka (UGS). RU previously claimed gains near Shcherbaki, Lobkove, Kam'yanske, Nesterianka (Mar 31 report), including liberation of Malye Shcherbaki (Mar 28 RU MoD claim). RU UAV operators ("Molniya" unit, 71st Rgt) reported active near Novodanylivka (Apr 1, 10:29 UTC). RU helicopter activity claimed (Mar 29).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian assault (UGS, Apr 1 morning). Persistent fighting near Antonivsky Bridge area; RU FPV strike video targeting UA personnel released (Apr 1). UA 40th Coastal Defence Bde active with FPV strikes (Apr 1). RU MoD (Apr 1) claims taking more advantageous positions and inflicting losses near Pridneprovskoye, Ivanovka, Antonovka.
IV. Other Key Updates
Information Warfare & Counter-Intelligence:
Ukrainian Success: SBU detained two individuals in Kyiv Oblast operating a PR agency allegedly working for Russian intelligence (Apr 1, 10:00 UTC). Accused of running >200 disinfo websites in EU, justifying RU aggression, managing reputation for sanctioned Russians (Shuvalov - VEB.RF, Kostin - VTB Bank).
Russian Narratives/Disinformation: Continued claims of significant territorial gains (incl. unverified Sudzha); propaganda videos (Chasiv Yar evacuation); allegations of UA using civilians as shields; narratives on poor UA mobilized personnel health (Apr 1, 10:14 UTC); conspiracy theories (Zelenskyy lookalike, Apr 1, 10:12 UTC).
Cyber Warfare: Massive DDoS attack reported against Russian Railways (RZhD) website/app, impacting online ticket sales (Apr 1, confirmed by RZhD 10:30 UTC). Previous attack reported on Ukrzaliznytsia.
Prisoner of War Situation: UA National Police captured RU personnel on Toretsk axis (Apr 1). Azov Brigade released video of captured RU soldier (Apr 1). Meeting held by UA Coordination HQ with families of 4th Tank Brigade POWs, highlighting difficulties in obtaining information from Russia and need for repatriation of wounded (Apr 1, 10:38 UTC).
Russian Tactical Adaptations: Continued heavy reliance on KABs and drones. Reports of RU fitting additional anti-drone cage armor to vehicles (e.g., 2S1 Gvozdika SPGs - Apr 1, 09:50 UTC). Reports of RU forces using motorcycles for assaults (Kramatorsk direction). RU sources claim use of FPVs with auto-targeting against EW-equipped vehicles to disrupt UA rotations (Apr 1, 10:35 UTC). Visuals show possible deployment of armed ground robots (UGV) by RU forces (Apr 1, 10:35 UTC).
Ukrainian Technological Developments: UA MoD approved ~20 types of fiber-optic controlled drones since start of 2025; >350 new types of armament/equipment approved in Q1 2025 (87% domestic) (Apr 1, 10:26 UTC). UA developing/testing anti-drone UAVs with shotguns (Apr 1, 10:08 UTC). GUR tested developmental drone-vs-drone system (Mar 29). NATO Innovation Challenge results announced for anti-KAB concepts (Mar 29).
Demining: UA 808th Support Brigade conducting demining operations in liberated areas, utilizing specialized vehicles (Aardvark JSFU) and K-9 units. Need highlighted by upcoming planting season (Apr 1, 10:42 UTC).
Russian Losses (Claims): RU MoD brief (Apr 1) claims >1000 total UA personnel losses across axes and 67 UA UAVs destroyed in 24h. Claims >150 UA personnel lost during Rozlyv capture. Claimed figures are likely inflated. UA sources (Apr 1, 10:13 UTC) show footage of RU losses after failed assaults.
Russian Internal Issues: Reports of threats against RU war participant complaining about unpaid wages (Apr 1, 10:04 UTC); Reports of poor health/conditions among UA mobilized (potentially reflecting similar RU issues or disinformation) (Apr 1, 10:14 UTC).
International Developments: Lithuanian FM stated NATO views Russia as a long-term threat (Apr 1). First round of UA-US consultations held on new mineral resources agreement text (Apr 1). Sweden/Finland joining NATO cited by Peskov as reason for deteriorated relations (Apr 1). US-UA economic agreement talks continue (Mar 29).
