Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 1, 2025, 10:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Assessment
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly along the Eastern Front (Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk directions) and the Kursk/Belgorod border region. UGS reported 183 clashes in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Apr 1.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus continues on the Pokrovsk direction. Sustained pressure persists towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk. Cross-border operations are maintained in the Kursk Operational Zone, with potential intent towards Sumy Oblast.
CONFIRMED (RU CLAIM): Russian MoD officially announced the capture of Rozlyv (Donetsk Oblast) on Apr 1 (09:08 UTC), confirming multiple prior Russian source reports. This represents a tactical gain west of Kurakhove. Russian sources claim the operation lasted 10 days, involved clearing ~400 structures, and resulted in >150 claimed UA personnel losses. Demining operations are reportedly underway.
Russian sources claim RU forces captured >90 sq km in the South Donetsk direction during March (liberating Dniproenerhiya, Pryvilne, Kostyantynopil, and Rozlyv).
Russian sources suggest Bohatyr is the likely next RU objective in this sector.
Kursk/Sumy Border Region:
Russian sources claim progressive consolidation within Kursk Oblast, asserting only Oleshnia and Gornal remain under limited UA control. Fighting claimed along the Volodymyrivka–Zhuravka–Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Advance >1 km from Melova towards Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast) claimed.
CONFLICTING CLAIM (Kursk): A Russian source map (Colonelcassad, Apr 1) claims liberation of >390 sq km in Kursk/Sumy during March, including Sudzha. This claim, particularly regarding Sudzha, remains unverified and contradicts official Ukrainian assessments. The same source notes Oleshnja, Gornal, and part of Huyevo remain contested.
Ukrainian Assessment (DeepState, Apr 1): Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian territory in March 2025. While RU advances continue, the rate of gain significantly decreased (~6x) compared to late 2024. However, RU offensive intensity has increased on several axes, notably Pokrovsk, returning to levels comparable to late 2024.
Contested Areas: Vovchansk (Kharkiv); Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod); Oleshnia/Gornal (Kursk); multiple settlements along Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv axes; Left Bank Kherson bridgeheads.
UGS (Apr 1, 06:00 UTC) reported repelling 27 Russian assaults in the Kursk operational zone and 1 assault on the Kherson axis.
OTU "Kharkiv" (Apr 1, 09:23 UTC) reported repelling 7 RU attempts near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) in the past 24 hours.
DeepState notes UA forces are minimizing RU successes despite high pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis.
Key Threat Vector: The Kursk Operational Zone remains a significant concern due to persistent RU cross-border pressure. The Pokrovsk Axis faces the most intense RU ground attacks.
II. Air Activity & Strikes
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, missiles, and drones.
Energy Infrastructure:
UA Claims: Russia continues targeting UA energy infrastructure, violating alleged US-brokered understandings. Recent strikes impacted Kherson (Apr 1 morning, 45k residents affected), Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblast (UA MFA Sybiha).
RU Claims: RU MoD confirmed two UA UAV attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Mar 31): power substations in Novohorivka (Occupied Zaporizhzhia) and Smorodino (Belgorod Oblast, RU), causing power outages. RU MoD alleges these violate agreements.
KAB/Airstrikes: Ongoing. Repeated KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA AF, Apr 1 morning). OTU Kharkiv reported 2 KABs used in its zone (past 24h). Visuals confirm significant damage to residential areas in Pokrovsk city (Apr 1).
Drone Strikes: OTU Kharkiv reported 70 kamikaze drones used in its zone (past 24h). RU sources claim strikes on UA targets in Chernihiv Oblast.
Missile Activity: RU launched 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Kursk Oblast overnight Mar 30/31 (UGS, unintercepted). Two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles intercepted near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31 evening).
Ukrainian Air Defense & Counter-Drone:
Successful interception of two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31 evening) confirmed (UA AF).
Reported downing of RU Molniya, Zala, and 3 Supercam drones by UA 77th Airmobile Brigade (Apr 1).
No Shahed attacks recorded overnight Mar 31 - Apr 1 (first instance in 2025).
Development/Testing: UA GUR experimental anti-drone system successfully intercepted Shaheds (Mar 29). UA sources showcase development of anti-drone UAVs equipped with shotguns.
Russian Air Capabilities: Previous observation (Mar 31) of a Russian Beriev A-50 AWACS being towed suggests potential non-operational status, impacting regional C2/ISR.
III. Ground Operations & Territorial Control
A. Northern Border (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv)
RU CLAIMS (Consolidation/Advance): Claims of progressive expulsion of UA units from Kursk Oblast, leaving only Oleshnja and Gornal under limited UA control. Fighting claimed along Volodymyrivka – Zhuravka – Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Advance >1 km from Melova towards Oleshnia claimed (Kursk Oblast). CONFLICTING CLAIM: Capture of Sudzha claimed by some RU sources as part of >390 sq km March gains remains unverified.
Belgorod Oblast: Small arms fighting reported near Demydovka and Popovka (RU Source, Apr 1). Ongoing UA drone activity impacts RU operations.
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv Report - Past 24h): Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian attempts near Vovchansk. RU forces used 70 kamikaze drones and conducted 464 artillery/MLRS attacks.
Chernihiv Oblast Border Area: RU claims artillery/airstrikes on UA positions near the border (Apr 1).
B. Eastern Front
Kupyansk Axis: Clashes ongoing near Pishchane, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka (UGS). DeepState map indicates RU advance near Kindrashivka. Previous destruction of RU bridge near Dvorichna (Mar 30) likely hinders RU Oskil river crossing attempts.
Lyman Axis: High intensity. Clashes near Nadiya, Dibrova, Kolodyazi, Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhaylivka (UGS). RU claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka (Mar 30 report).
Siversk Axis: Clashes near Ivano-Daryivka and Bilohorivka (UGS). RU claim 300m advance from Bilohorivka towards Hryhorivka (RU Source, Apr 1).
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne (UGS). RU MoD claims VDV units repelled UA attacks and destroyed UA armor with FPVs (Apr 1). RU propaganda video depicts civilian evacuation from Chasiv Yar (Apr 1). UA 5th Assault Brigade video (Apr 1) claims stopping RU assault using motorcycles under fog cover in this direction, claiming destruction of 18 motorcycles, 3 AFVs, 2 vehicles.
Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka (UGS). DeepState map confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU confirmed occupation of Panteleimonivka (Mar 31 report). UA National Police captured RU personnel during defense (Apr 1).
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity. Intensity back to late-2024 levels (DeepState). Clashes reported across numerous settlements (UGS). Visuals confirm significant destruction in Pokrovsk city (Apr 1).
Novopavlivsk Axis: Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya and towards Rozlyv (UGS). RU MoD officially confirms capture of Rozlyv (Apr 1). RU claims >90 sq km gain in March, liberating 4 settlements. RU sources suggest Bohatyr as next objective.
C. Southern Front
Huliaipole Axis: Clashes near Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil (UGS).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Clashes near Mali Scherbaky, Lobkove, Scherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka (UGS). RU previously claimed gains near Shcherbaki, Lobkove, Kam'yanske, Nesterianka (Mar 31 report).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian assault (UGS, Apr 1 morning). Persistent fighting near Antonivsky Bridge area; RU FPV strike video targeting UA personnel released (Apr 1). UA 40th Coastal Defence Bde active with FPV strikes (Apr 1).
IV. Information Warfare & Counter-Intelligence
Ukrainian Success: SBU detained two individuals in Kyiv Oblast operating a PR agency allegedly working for Russian intelligence services (Apr 1). The agency is accused of running over 200 websites spreading disinformation against Ukraine in the EU, justifying Russian aggression, and conducting reputation management for sanctioned Russian figures (Igor Shuvalov - VEB.RF, Andrey Kostin - VTB Bank).
Russian Narratives/Disinformation:
Continued claims of significant territorial gains in Kursk/Sumy, including unverified claims regarding Sudzha.
Allegations of UA forces using civilians as shields (placement of artillery in residential areas).
Dissemination of narratives regarding alleged poor conditions/health issues among UA mobilized personnel.
Promotion of conspiracy theories (e.g., Zelenskyy lookalike).
Alleged RU Practices: Video surfaces allegedly showing RU commander instructing troops on suicide if capture is imminent (Butusov Plus, Apr 1). Azov Brigade video highlights alleged recruitment deception, high losses, poor treatment of RU soldier (Apr 1).
V. Other Key Updates
Prisoner of War Situation: UA National Police captured RU personnel on Toretsk axis (Apr 1). Azov Brigade released video of captured RU soldier (Apr 1).
Launch of electronic Military Medical Commission (VLK) cabinet (Apr 1).
Simplified passport issuance process for Ukrainian men (18-60) abroad via registry check (Apr 1).
Construction of underground schools ongoing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (6 operational, 5 under construction, 10 more planned) (Apr 1).
Deportation of alleged pro-Russian collaborator Kyrylo Molchanov from Poland to Ukraine reported (Apr 1).
International Developments: Lithuanian FM stated NATO intelligence views Russia as a long-term threat preparing for long-term confrontation (Apr 1). First round of UA-US consultations held on new mineral resources agreement text (Apr 1).
Russian Claims (Losses): RU MoD brief (Apr 1) claims high UA losses (>1000 total personnel across multiple axes) and destruction of 67 UA UAVs in 24h. Claims >150 UA personnel lost during Rozlyv capture. Note: Claimed figures are likely inflated.
Russian Tactical Adaptations: Continued heavy reliance on KABs and drones. Reports of RU fitting additional anti-drone cage armor to vehicles (e.g., 2S1 Gvozdika SPGs). Reports of RU forces using motorcycles for assaults (e.g., Kramatorsk direction).
