Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 1, 2025, 09:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation & Assessment
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. Significant combat persists along the Eastern Front, particularly the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Novopavlivsk directions. Intense activity continues in the Kursk/Belgorod border region. UGS reported 183 clashes in the 24 hours preceding 06:00 UTC Apr 1.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive focus remains on the Pokrovsk direction. Sustained pressure is applied towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk. Operations continue in the Kursk Operational Zone and potentially Sumy Oblast.
CONFIRMED (RU CLAIM): Russian MoD announced the liberation of Rozlyv (Donetsk Oblast) on Apr 1 (09:08 UTC), confirming earlier RU claims and recent reports (RVvoenkor, Voenkor Kotenok, Kotsnews). This potentially represents a significant tactical breach west of Kurakhove.
Russian sources (Voin DV, 09:00 UTC) claim RU forces captured >90 sq km in the South Donetsk direction during March, liberating Dniproenerhiya, Pryvilne, Kostyantynopil, and Rozlyv.
Russian sources (Kotsnews) suggest Bohatyr may be the next RU objective in this area.
Kursk/Sumy Border Region:
Russian sources claim progressive consolidation within Kursk Oblast, asserting only Oleshnia and Gornal remain under limited UA control. Claim fighting along the Volodymyrivka–Zhuravka–Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Claim >1 km advance from Melova towards Oleshnia (Kursk Oblast). (RU Sources, 07:01 - 08:07 UTC).
CONFLICTING CLAIM (Kursk): A Russian source map (Colonelcassad, 09:43 UTC) claims liberation of >390 sq km in Kursk/Sumy including Sudzha in March, attributed partly to a "pipe" tactic. This contradicts official Ukrainian reports and previous assessments regarding Sudzha's status. The same source notes Oleshnja, Gornal, and part of Huyevo remain contested in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Assessment (DeepState, Apr 1, 09:08 UTC): Russian forces occupied 133 sq km of Ukrainian territory in March 2025. While this indicates ongoing RU advances, DeepState assesses a significant decrease (~6x since Nov 2024) in the rate of RU territorial gains compared to late 2024. However, RU offensive operations have intensified on several axes, notably Pokrovsk, reaching intensity levels comparable to late 2024.
Contested Areas: Include Vovchansk (Kharkiv), Popovka/Demydovka (Belgorod), Oleshnia/Gornal (Kursk), multiple settlements on Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Huliaipole, Orikhiv axes, and Left Bank Kherson bridgeheads.
UGS (Apr 1, 06:00 UTC) highlighted repelling 27 Russian assaults in the Kursk operational zone and 1 assault on the Kherson axis.
OTU "Kharkiv" (Apr 1, 09:23 UTC) reported repelling 7 RU attempts near Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) in the past 24 hours.
Significant defensive efforts persist, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis. DeepState notes Ukrainian forces are minimizing RU successes despite challenges, highlighting potential issues with RU manpower quality.
Key Threat Vector: The Kursk Operational Zone remains a significant concern due to ongoing RU cross-border pressure and potential reserve build-up (DeepState assessment). The Pokrovsk Axis faces the highest intensity attacks, comparable to late 2024 levels.
II. Air Activity & Strikes
Russian Strike Campaign: High tempo continues using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, missiles, and drones.
Energy Infrastructure:
UA Claims: UA MFA Sybiha (08:55 UTC) stated Russia continues violating alleged US-brokered understandings by striking UA energy infrastructure, citing damage in Kherson (Apr 1 morning, 45k residents affected), Kharkiv, and Poltava Oblast.
RU Claims: RU MoD (09:09 UTC) and sources (Voenkor Kotenok, Colonelcassad, Dva Mayora) confirmed two UA UAV attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (Mar 31): power substations in Novohorivka (Occupied Zaporizhzhia) and Smorodino (Belgorod Oblast, RU), causing power outages. RU MoD claims these UA strikes violate agreements.
KAB/Airstrikes: Ongoing threat. Repeated KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast (UA AF, Apr 1 morning). OTU Kharkiv reported 2 KABs used in its zone (past 24h). RU airstrike locations (past 24h) span Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions (UGS/Liveuamap). Visuals from Pokrovsk (Shef Hayabusa, 09:25 UTC) show significant damage to residential areas.
Drone Strikes: OTU Kharkiv reported 70 kamikaze drones used in its zone (past 24h). RU sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:12 UTC) claim strikes on UA targets in Chernihiv Oblast, including an alleged UAV assembly workshop (Novhorod-Siverskyi).
Claimed RU Successes: Destruction of UA Gvozdika SPG, M777 howitzer (Zorya), UAV control point, armored hardware (Chasiv Yar by 98th VDV FPVs).
Ukrainian Air Defense & Counter-Drone:
Successful interception of two Russian Kh-59/69 missiles near Zaporizhzhia (Mar 31 evening) confirmed (UA AF).
Reported downing of RU Molniya, Zala, and 3 Supercam drones by UA 77th Airmobile Brigade (Sternenko, 09:23 UTC).
No Shahed attacks recorded overnight Mar 31 - Apr 1 (first instance in 2025).
Russian Air Capabilities: Observation (Mar 31 report) of a Russian Beriev A-50 AWACS being towed suggests potential non-operational status, impacting regional C2/ISR.
III. Ground Operations & Territorial Control
A. Northern Border (Kursk/Belgorod/Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv)
RU CLAIMS (Consolidation/Advance): RU sources claim progressive expulsion of UA units from Kursk Oblast, leaving only Oleshnja and Gornal under limited UA control. Fighting claimed along Volodymyrivka – Zhuravka – Basovka line (Sumy Oblast). Advance >1 km from Melova towards Oleshnia claimed (Kursk Oblast). CONFLICTING CLAIM: Capture of Sudzha claimed by some RU sources (Colonelcassad) as part of >390 sq km March gains, but remains unverified and contradicts official reports.
Belgorod Oblast: Ongoing small arms fighting reported near Demydovka and Popovka (RU Source, 06:49 UTC). UA drone activity remains high, impacting RU operations (RU Source, Mar 31 report).
Kharkiv Axis (OTU Kharkiv Report - Past 24h): Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian attempts near Vovchansk. RU forces used 70 kamikaze drones and conducted 464 artillery/MLRS attacks. Claimed RU losses: 51 personnel (21 KIA), 34 OVT units (incl. 7 vehicles, 3 spec eq, 24 UAVs), 67 shelters, 1 ammo storage.
Chernihiv Oblast Border Area: RU sources claim artillery/airstrikes on UA positions near the border (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:12 UTC).
B. Eastern Front
Kupyansk Axis: Clashes ongoing near Pishchane, Nova Kruhlyakivka, Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka (UGS). DeepState map indicates RU advance near Kindrashivka. Ukrainian forces previously destroyed a RU heavy mechanized bridge attempting to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Mar 30 report), hindering potential RU advances.
Lyman Axis: High intensity. Clashes near Nadiya, Dibrova, Kolodyazi, Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhaylivka (UGS). RU claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka (Mar 30 report).
Siversk Axis: Clashes near Ivano-Daryivka and Bilohorivka (UGS). RU claim 300m advance from Bilohorivka towards Hryhorivka (RU Source, 08:14 UTC).
Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): Clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne (UGS). RU MoD claims VDV units (98th Guards Airborne) repelled UA attacks and destroyed UA armor with FPVs (RU MoD, 08:22 UTC). Evacuation story from Chasiv Yar used in RU propaganda (Dnevnik Desantnika, 09:31 UTC).
Toretsk Axis: Clashes near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka (UGS). DeepState map confirms RU advance near Panteleimonivka. RU confirmed occupation of Panteleimonivka (Mar 31 report). UA National Police captured RU personnel during defense operations (Tsaplienko, 07:27 UTC).
Pokrovsk Axis:Highest Intensity. Clashes reported across numerous settlements (UGS). Intensity back to late-2024 levels (DeepState). Visuals confirm significant destruction in Pokrovsk city (Shef Hayabusa, 09:25 UTC).
Novopavlivsk Axis: Clashes near Kostyantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya and towards Rozlyv (UGS). RU MoD officially confirms liberation of Rozlyv (Apr 1, 09:08 UTC). RU claims >90 sq km gain in March, liberating 4 settlements (Voin DV, 09:00 UTC). Russian sources previously claimed use of captured French anti-tank mines in this sector (Mar 31 report).
C. Southern Front
Huliaipole Axis: Clashes near Novosilka, Pryvilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil (UGS).
Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Clashes near Mali Scherbaky, Lobkove, Scherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka (UGS). RU previously claimed significant offensive gains near Shcherbaki, Lobkove, Kam'yanske, Nesterianka (Mar 31 report).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian assault (UGS, Apr 1 morning). Persistent fighting near Antonivsky Bridge area; RU FPV strike video targeting UA personnel in this area released (Colonelcassad, 09:27 UTC). UA 40th Coastal Defence Bde active with FPV strikes (SDF South, 09:34 UTC).
IV. Other Key Updates
Prisoner of War Situation:
UA National Police captured RU personnel on Toretsk axis (Tsaplienko, 07:27 UTC).
Azov Brigade released video showing capture/interrogation of RU soldier (Denis Kalina, b.1977, Chelyabinsk, 9th Brigade) on Eastern Front, alleging recruitment deception, high losses, poor treatment (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 09:07 UTC).
Video surfaces allegedly showing RU commander instructing troops on suicide if capture is imminent (Butusov Plus, 09:28 UTC).
Launch of electronic Military Medical Commission (VLK) cabinet from Apr 1 (RBC-Ukraina, 09:22 UTC).
Simplified passport issuance process for Ukrainian men (18-60) abroad; military registration status checked via registry, physical document not required initially (RBC-Ukraina, Operativnyi ZSU, 09:31/09:38 UTC).
Construction of underground schools ongoing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (6 operational, 5 under construction, 10 more planned by Sep 1) (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 09:35 UTC).
Deportation of alleged pro-Russian collaborator Kyrylo Molchanov from Poland to Ukraine reported (Tsaplienko, 09:38 UTC).
First round of UA-US consultations held on new mineral resources agreement text (MFA Sybiha, 09:00 UTC).
Lithuanian FM Budrys stated NATO intelligence consensus views Russia as a long-term direct military threat preparing for long-term confrontation, stressed need for deterrence/UA support (RBC-Ukraina, 09:06 UTC).
Russian Claims (Losses): Russian MoD brief (09:14 UTC) claims high UA losses (>430 Central Gp, >255 Southern Gp, >150 Vostok Gp, >70 Belgorod direction) and destruction of 67 UA UAVs in 24h. Claims >150 UA personnel lost during Rozlyv capture. Note: Claimed figures are likely inflated.
