Military Situation Update: Ukraine - April 1, 2025, 00:15 UTC
(Analysis based on reports up to April 1, 00:05 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly on the Pokrovsk Direction (56 attacks reported repelled/ongoing as of Mar 31, 19:00 UTC). Significant activity persists on Lyman (26 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border region (26 attacks repelled/ongoing, incl. reports near Lipets, Kharkiv Oblast), Toretsk (14 attacks), South Donetsk (Vuhledar area - increased RU assaults; activity of 5th Tank Bde noted), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Kupyansk (9 attacks), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Orikhiv (9 attacks - significant RU offensive claims), and Kramatorsk (7 attacks) directions. A total of 175 combat clashes were reported by UGS by 19:00 UTC, Mar 31.
Russian Strikes & Air Threats: Continuous high level of Russian strikes involving missiles (1 reported), aviation (73 strikes, 118 KABs), kamikaze drones (~650), and artillery/MLRS (~4,000 attacks) reported by UGS (as of Mar 31, 19:00 UTC).
Civilian Impact: Confirmed Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia Oblast killed 1 civilian, wounded 5 (Mar 31). Russian sources claim bombing strikes on Kherson city (Korabel Island), allegedly targeting a UA drone facility.
Air Threats: Persistent threat from tactical aviation on eastern/southern axes.
Russian Claims: Targeting military airfields, workshops, depots. Continued strikes claimed on energy facilities. Claimed destruction of 147 UA concentration areas. Observation of An-12 cargo aircraft activity suggests ongoing air logistics operations.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive thrust remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure towards Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivsk, South Donetsk (Vuhledar/Vremivka), Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia). Continued operations aim to consolidate control and potentially prepare for larger actions in the Kursk/Belgorod border area (Sumy/Kharkiv Oblast directions).
Key Territorial Developments & Claims:
Kursk/Belgorod Border & Kharkiv North: Intense, ongoing fighting, particularly near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast) and reportedly near Lipets (Kharkiv Oblast) according to RU sources. UGS reports repelling 26 attacks in the border zone; RU claims counter-attacks partially cleared Demidovka. RU sources assess potential large-scale UA offensive preparations targeting Sumy Oblast, citing UA troop concentrations (up to 6,000 personnel) and elite unit presence (8th SSO, 78th Air Assault Regt). Extremely high UA drone activity reported by RU sources (~500 FPV drones/day in Krasnoyaruzhsky district), making the area highly hazardous.
Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Direction): Fighting ongoing. UGS reports repelled RU attacks. RU claims destruction of UA tank and armored vehicles. UA 24th Mechanized Brigade actively engaged in eliminating RU assault troops within the settlement.
Pokrovsk Direction: Contested fighting near Kotlyarivka and Uspenivka. RU claims forces are within 2-4km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border SE of Kotlyarivka.
Toretsk Direction: Situation near Toretsk mine described as chaotic by DeepState. RU confirmed occupation of Panteleimonivka, attempts advances towards Valentynivka.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk: Contested status for Rozlyv. UA reports significantly increased RU assaults near Vuhledar (226 attacks repelled last week). RU 5th Tank Brigade confirmed active in this sector, utilizing tanks with field-expedient anti-drone cages ("mangals") and drones. NEW RU CLAIM: Use of captured French anti-tank mines to repel a UA counterattack involving M113 APCs reported near the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia administrative border. RU claims destruction of UA shelter near Vuhledar. Muddy conditions ("rasputitsa") reported impacting operations in this sector.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): UGS reports repelled attacks. SIGNIFICANT RU CLAIMS: Major offensive actions by RU "Dnepr" Group, claiming expansion of control zone near Shcherbaki, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepove, Lobkove; advances in/around Lobkove (by 7th VDV); capture of key UA strongpoint near Kam'yanske; pushing UA forces from Nesterianka towards Novoandriivka. Claim constant strikes on Orikhiv and surrounding settlements.
II. Ground Combat Operations Summary (Select Directions)
Kursk/Belgorod Border & Kharkiv North: Intense engagements, especially near Demidovka and potentially Lipets. Heavy UA drone presence reported by RU sources creating hazardous conditions. RU claims significant UA losses (>190 personnel, equipment) in Kursk zone (24h). RU assesses potential major UA offensive preparations (Sumy Oblast).
Lyman: High intensity (26 attacks, 6 ongoing per UGS 19:00 Mar 31).
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar/Predtechyne. UA 24th Brigade engaged.
Toretsk: High intensity (14 attacks, 1 ongoing per UGS 19:00 Mar 31). RU confirmed capture of Panteleimonivka.
Pokrovsk: Highest intensity (56 attacks, 6 ongoing per UGS 19:00 Mar 31). Main RU effort.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk: Ongoing RU attacks (9 total, 4 ongoing per UGS 19:00 Mar 31). Increased RU assault tempo near Vuhledar reported last week. RU 5th Tank Brigade active. RU claims use of captured mines against UA M113s. Operational constraints due to mud reported.
Prydniprovsky (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting near Krynky. RU claims strike on UA facility in Kherson city.
III. Force Posture & Capabilities
Russian Forces:
Tactics & Equipment: Claimed operational use of captured NATO (French) anti-tank mines. Continued heavy use of KABs, drones, artillery. Observed use of field-modified tanks (anti-drone cages) by units like the 5th Tank Bde (South Donetsk). Ongoing drone operations for reconnaissance and strike reported by RU sources.
Air/ISR Capabilities:Significant Observation: A Russian Beriev A-50 AWACS aircraft was observed being towed (location unspecified). This could indicate the aircraft is non-operational due to maintenance, damage, or relocation, potentially impacting regional air C2 and surveillance capabilities. Continued air logistics activity noted (An-12).
EW/Counter-Drone: Deploying EW, drone detectors, and claimed use of specialized "interceptor drones" (61st Naval Inf Bde) against various UA UAV types (recon and strike).
Logistics/Personnel: Potential reliance on non-standard channels indicated by fundraising appeals (vehicles for Belgorod sector). Ongoing spring conscription (160,000 target), official denial of SVO deployment persists. Reports indicate "rasputitsa" (mud) is impacting mobility and logistics, particularly on southern axes.
Assessment: Perceive significant UA threat/capability on northern border (Sumy/Kursk/Kharkiv), potentially prompting reinforcement shifts. Unit propaganda (e.g., 5th Tank Bde report) continues, emphasizing resilience and multi-ethnic composition.
Ukrainian Forces:
Operations: Maintaining defensive lines, active defense/counter-actions in border areas having significant impact (per RU reports). High tempo drone operations, particularly in border regions. Active defense in Chasiv Yar (24th Mech Bde).
Logistics/Needs: Persistent critical shortages noted, FPV drones remain a key need (fundraising appeals). Concerns raised internally about visibility/vulnerability of some new fortifications.
Unit Cohesion: RU sources claim capture of UA soldiers potentially affected by friendly fire (143rd Bde) and disseminate propaganda interviews with alleged POWs (153rd Bde) - potential indicator if true, but primarily propaganda aimed at undermining morale.
IV. Reported Losses (Claims - Require Verification)
UA Claims (Recent): Significant RU losses claimed on Pokrovsk direction (382 personnel neutralized Mar 31); South Donetsk direction (1206 personnel KIA/WIA, 14 tanks, 26 AFVs last week).
RU Claims (Recent): >190 UA personnel + equipment losses in Kursk zone (24h); Repelled UA counterattack using M113s (Novopavlivsk/Zaporizhzhia border area); UA tank/AFV losses near Chasiv Yar; UA tank loss near Danilivka (Orikhiv); Destruction of UA drone facility/personnel in Kherson; Downed multiple UA UAV types using interceptor drones; Capture of UA soldiers (143rd/153rd Bdes).
V. International Support & Geopolitics
Coordination/Support: UK-UA talks on military contingent preparation; upcoming UK-FR-UA meeting on security guarantees. G5+ EU FMs affirm intent to double aid, consider new sanctions, reject peace terms limiting UA defense capabilities/partner presence.
US Political Stance (Trump): Statements reinforce focus on negotiating a settlement deal potentially linked to resources, questioning Ukraine's NATO path as conflict cause, expressing reluctance on secondary sanctions. This signals potential significant US policy shifts impacting strategic planning. US State Dept spokesperson affirmed working towards a "complete ceasefire" and negotiations, acknowledging RU proposal for "temporary administration" but stating Trump did not approve it.
Other: Reports of a Russian Communist Party delegation visiting North Korea and ongoing Chinese military exercises near Taiwan are noted but assessed as having no direct immediate impact on the military situation in Ukraine. Russian internal discussions on pensions and youth age policies are irrelevant. Russian reports on Il-114-300 aircraft testing indicate ongoing activity in their domestic aviation industry.
