Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 23:45 UTC
(Analysis based on reports up to March 31, 23:15 UTC)
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH, particularly on the Pokrovsk Direction (56 attacks reported by UGS as of Mar 31, 19:00 UTC). Significant activity persists on Lyman (26 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (26 attacks repelled/ongoing), Toretsk (14 attacks), South Donetsk (Vuhledar area - increased RU assaults reported), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Kupyansk (9 attacks), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Orikhiv (9 attacks - significant RU offensive claims), and Kramatorsk (7 attacks) directions. A total of 175 combat clashes were reported by UGS by 19:00 UTC.
Russian Strikes & Air Threats: Continuous high level of Russian strikes involving missiles (1 reported), aviation (73 strikes, 118 KABs), kamikaze drones (~650), and artillery/MLRS (~4,000 attacks) reported by UGS (as of 19:00 UTC).
Civilian Impact: Confirmed Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia Oblast killed 1 civilian, wounded 5. Russian sources claim bombing strikes on Kherson city (Korabel Island), allegedly targeting a UA drone facility.
Air Threats: Persistent threat from tactical aviation on eastern/southern axes. No Shahed drones currently detected over Ukraine (as of 21:11 UTC).
Russian Claims: Targeting military airfields, workshops, depots. Continued strikes claimed on energy facilities. Claimed destruction of 147 UA concentration areas.
Russian Main Efforts: Primary offensive thrust remains towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure towards Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivsk, South Donetsk (Vuhledar/Vremivka), Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia). Continued operations aim to consolidate control and potentially prepare for larger actions in the Kursk/Belgorod border area (Sumy Oblast direction).
Key Territorial Developments & Claims:
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Intense, ongoing fighting, particularly near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). UGS reports repelling 26 attacks; RU claims counter-attacks partially cleared Demidovka. RU sources assess potential large-scale UA offensive preparations targeting Sumy Oblast, citing UA troop concentrations (up to 6,000 personnel) and elite unit presence (8th SSO, 78th Air Assault Regt). Extremely high UA drone activity reported by RU sources (~500 FPV drones/day in Krasnoyaruzhsky district), making the area highly hazardous.
Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk Direction): Fighting ongoing. UGS reports repelled RU attacks. RU claims destruction of UA tank and armored vehicles. UA 24th Mechanized Brigade actively engaged in eliminating RU assault troops within the settlement.
Pokrovsk Direction: Contested fighting near Kotlyarivka and Uspenivka. RU claims forces are within 2-4km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border SE of Kotlyarivka.
Toretsk Direction: Situation near Toretsk mine described as chaotic by DeepState. RU confirmed occupation of Panteleimonivka, attempts advances towards Valentynivka.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk: Contested status for Rozlyv. UA reports significantly increased RU assaults near Vuhledar (226 attacks repelled last week). NEW RU CLAIM: Use of captured French anti-tank mines to repel a UA counterattack involving M113 APCs reported in the area near the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia administrative border. RU claims destruction of UA shelter near Vuhledar.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): UGS reports repelled attacks. SIGNIFICANT RU CLAIMS: Major offensive actions by RU "Dnepr" Group, claiming expansion of control zone near Shcherbaki, Mali Shcherbaki, Stepove, Lobkove; advances in/around Lobkove (by 7th VDV); capture of key UA strongpoint near Kam'yanske; pushing UA forces from Nesterianka towards Novoandriivka. Claim constant strikes on Orikhiv and surrounding settlements.
II. Ground Combat Operations Summary (Select Directions)
Kursk/Belgorod Border: Intense engagements, especially near Demidovka. Heavy UA drone presence reported by RU sources creating hazardous conditions. RU claims significant UA losses (>190 personnel, equipment) in Kursk zone (24h). RU assesses potential major UA offensive preparations (Sumy Oblast).
Lyman: High intensity (26 attacks, 6 ongoing per UGS 19:00).
Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar/Predtechyne. UA 24th Brigade engaged.
Toretsk: High intensity (14 attacks, 1 ongoing per UGS 19:00). RU confirmed capture of Panteleimonivka.
Pokrovsk: Highest intensity (56 attacks, 6 ongoing per UGS 19:00). Main RU effort.
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk: Ongoing RU attacks (9 total, 4 ongoing per UGS 19:00). Increased RU assault tempo near Vuhledar reported last week. RU claims use of captured mines against UA M113s.
Prydniprovsky (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting near Krynky. RU claims strike on UA facility in Kherson city.
III. Force Posture & Capabilities
Russian Forces:
Tactics: Claimed operational use of captured NATO (French) anti-tank mines. Continued heavy use of KABs, drones, artillery.
EW/Counter-Drone: Deploying EW, drone detectors, and claimed use of specialized "interceptor drones" (61st Naval Inf Bde) against various UA UAV types (recon and strike).
Logistics: Potential reliance on non-standard channels indicated by fundraising appeals (vehicles for Belgorod sector). Ongoing spring conscription (160,000 target), official denial of SVO deployment persists.
Assessment: Perceive significant UA threat/capability on northern border (Sumy/Kursk), potentially prompting reinforcement shifts.
Ukrainian Forces:
Operations: Maintaining defensive lines, active defense/counter-actions in border areas having significant impact (per RU reports). High tempo drone operations, particularly in border regions. Active defense in Chasiv Yar (24th Mech Bde).
Logistics/Needs: Persistent critical shortages noted, FPV drones remain a key need (fundraising appeals). Concerns raised internally about visibility/vulnerability of some new fortifications.
Unit Cohesion: RU sources claim capture of UA soldiers potentially affected by friendly fire (143rd Bde) and disseminate propaganda interviews with alleged POWs (153rd Bde) - potential indicator if true, but primarily propaganda.
IV. Reported Losses (Claims - Require Verification)
UA Claims (Recent): Significant RU losses claimed on Pokrovsk direction (382 personnel neutralized Mar 31); South Donetsk direction (1206 personnel KIA/WIA, 14 tanks, 26 AFVs last week).
RU Claims (Recent): >190 UA personnel + equipment losses in Kursk zone (24h); Repelled UA counterattack using M113s (Novopavlivsk/Zaporizhzhia border area); UA tank/AFV losses near Chasiv Yar; UA tank loss near Danilivka (Orikhiv); Destruction of UA drone facility/personnel in Kherson; Downed multiple UA UAV types using interceptor drones; Capture of UA soldiers (143rd/153rd Bdes).
V. International Support & Geopolitics
Coordination/Support: UK-UA talks on military contingent preparation; upcoming UK-FR-UA meeting on security guarantees. G5+ EU FMs affirm intent to double aid, consider new sanctions, reject peace terms limiting UA defense capabilities/partner presence.
US Political Stance (Trump): Statements reinforce focus on negotiating a settlement deal potentially linked to resources, questioning Ukraine's NATO path as conflict cause, expressing reluctance on secondary sanctions. This signals potential significant US policy shifts impacting strategic planning. US State Dept spokesperson affirmed working towards a "complete ceasefire" and negotiations, acknowledging RU proposal for "temporary administration" but stating Trump did not approve it.
VI. Update Based on New Information (Post 23:15 UTC)
The message timestamped 2025-03-31 23:16:27 - ТАСС concerns former US President Trump's comments on the legal situation of Marine Le Pen in France. This information has no discernible impact on the current military situation in Ukraine. The military analysis remains unchanged based on the previously provided reports.
