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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-31 20:46:30Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-31 20:16:43Z)

Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 20:45 UTC

(Incorporating updates up to 20:43 UTC)

I. Overall Strategic Situation

  • Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 19:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 175 combat clashes occurred. Intensity remains highest on the Pokrovsk Direction (56 attacks). Significant activity persists on the Lyman (26 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (26 attacks repelled/ongoing per UGS; RU sources report continued heavy fighting, claim >190 UA losses in 24h), Toretsk (14 attacks), South Donetsk (Vuhledar area - Increased RU assaults reported last week, 226 attacks repelled per UA TG "Vuhledar"), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Kupyansk (9 attacks), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Orikhiv (9 attacks), and Kramatorsk (7 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing.
  • Russian Strikes & Air Threats (Since start of day - UGS 19:00 UTC & Recent Reports):
    • 1 Missile Strike (UGS 19:00).
    • 73 Aviation Strikes (using 118 KABs) (UGS 19:00).
    • Approx. 650 Kamikaze Drones deployed (UGS 19:00).
    • Almost 4,000 shelling attacks on UA positions and settlements (UGS 19:00).
    • RU Claim (Targeting): RU MoD (20:25 UTC) claims strikes engaged military airfield facilities, workshops, launch sites, ammunition, armament, and supply depots. Claims continued UA strikes on Russian energy facilities despite alleged Kiev statements to cease.
    • Civilian Casualties (Updated):
      • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian strike on civilian infrastructure in a frontline community resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 5 WIA (Updated count per OVA/RBC-Ukraina 20:08 UTC). Residential buildings and social facilities damaged/destroyed.
    • Specific Air/Drone Threats (Recent):
      • Monitoring channels continued to report no active Russian strike drone launches as of 19:19 UTC, noting this absence remains unusual.
      • Russian Air Activity: Ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation (e.g., Su-35s w/ air-to-air & Kh-31P missiles) maintains threat.
    • Ukrainian Drone Interceptions (RU CLAIM): Governor of Bryansk Oblast (RU) claimed 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over the region (19:21 UTC).
    • UA Claim (Drone Interception): Reportedly downed RU "Molniya" FPV wing drone (Tsaplienko, 20:38 UTC).
    • Kherson Bombing Confirmation & Claim (Updated): RU sources published video allegedly showing impacts from bombing strikes on Kherson city. Further RU claims specify FAB-500 w/ UMPK strikes on Korabel Island (port area), alleging destruction of a UA FPV drone assembly/launch site, up to 30 UA personnel KIA, and 5 vehicles destroyed (Dva Mayora, 20:05 UTC).
    • Other RU Strike Claims: Claimed engagement of 147 AFU manpower/hardware concentration areas (MoD Russia, 19:33 UTC). Claim of precision strikes destroying UA fortifications/manpower to aid infantry (Voin DV, 20:03 UTC).
  • Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: Primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivsk, South Donetsk (Vuhledar/Vremivka), Orikhiv, and efforts to consolidate control/advance within the Kursk/Belgorod border area. Objectives appear unchanged: minimum goal of full control over annexed oblasts; maximalist goal of capitulation/regime change.
  • Key Developments & Claims (Integrating UGS 19:00 UTC & Recent Reports):
    • Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status: Contested. Strong RU claim of full capture persists, but UGS (19:00 UTC) reports ongoing RU attacks towards Rozlyv.
    • Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity: RU claim forces are approx. 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border SE of Kotlyarivka remains. UGS confirms intense fighting near Kotlyarivka.
    • Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka: RU source claims UA attempted breakthrough into Uspenivka repulsed, fighting ongoing. UGS confirms intense fighting near Uspenivka.
    • Kramatorsk Direction / Chasiv Yar: UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 7 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar/Predtechyne repelled. RU claims of advances near Dniprovsky pond/Shevchenko microdistrict persist. Claimed destruction of UA tank and 3 armored vehicles near Chasiv Yar by RU 98th VDV (Colonelcassad, 19:07 UTC).
    • Kursk/Belgorod Border Area (Updated):
      • UGS (19:00 UTC): 26 RU attacks repelled in Kursk operational zone, 3 clashes ongoing. Heavy fighting near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction. Russia conducted 24 air strikes (36 KABs) and 211 artillery/MLRS barrages.
      • RU CLAIM (Heavy Fighting/Counterattacks - Demidovka): Reports of heavy, ongoing fighting (13 days) in Krasnoyaruzhsky district border area, particularly Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). Claim continued UA attempts to infiltrate; assert RU reinforcements counter-attacking, partially clearing Demidovka (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC). Map claims show geolocated RU artillery strikes on UA positions within Demidovka.
      • RU CLAIM (UA Losses - Kursk Zone, 24h): RU MoD (20:25 UTC) claims neutralization operations ongoing, alleges UA lost over 190 troops, 1 tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs, 5 vehicles, 2 artillery guns, 1 mortar, 3 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot.
    • Toretsk Direction: UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 14 RU attacks, 1 ongoing. DeepState (18:45 UTC) highlights chaotic situation near Toretsk mine, difficulties for UA forces (terrain/drones restrict movement, lack of support, unclear front line, RU numerical parity/superiority). DeepState confirms RU recently occupied Panteleimonivka, attempts advances towards Valentynivka.
    • South Donetsk Direction (Vuhledar Area - UA Report): Tactical Group "Vuhledar" (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 20:31 UTC) reports increased RU assault actions last week (+39), exploiting weather hindering UA drones. Claims 226 attacks repelled, inflicting significant RU losses: 1206 personnel KIA/WIA, 14 tanks, 26 AFVs, 160 vehicles/motorcycles/buggies, 2 UAVs, 24 comms/EW antennas destroyed.
    • Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv): UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 9 RU attacks repelled. RU MoD source (TASS, 19:05 UTC) released video claiming failed UA counterattack using M113s.
  • Russian Force Posture & Capabilities:
    • Conscription: Spring 2025 decree targets 160,000 citizens. Official claims state no SVO deployment, but reports contradict this.
    • EW/Counter-Drone: Ongoing adaptation. RU source advised operators to counter alleged UA fiber-optic drone detection systems.
    • Logistics/Equipment: Fundraising appeals (e.g., vehicles for Marines in Kursk direction) suggest reliance on non-standard channels.
  • Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
    • Maintaining defensive lines, repelling assaults (UGS). Stabilization efforts ongoing.
    • Active defense/counter-actions in Russian border territory acknowledged by RU sources (e.g., Demidovka).
    • Drone Operations: Highly active (e.g., Flying Skull, Ronin, Nemesis, Wormbusters, Kryla OMEGI units hitting RU MT-LB, crossings, personnel).
    • Logistics/Equipment Needs: Critical shortages persist, especially FPV drones (Fundraising appeals).
    • Fortifications Critique: Internal source raised concerns about visibility/vulnerability of some new MoD defenses.
    • Commendations: UGS commends 31st Mech Bde, 49th Coastal Defense Bde.
    • Internal Security: Report of individuals detained in Lviv with possible explosives (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 20:26 UTC).
  • Reported Losses (Various Sources):
    • UA Claims (Pokrovsk - Mar 31): 382 RU personnel neutralized (233 KIA), 3 tanks dest (+3 dam), 3 BMPs dest (+1 dam), 4 vehicles dest (+1 dam), etc. (UGS 19:00).
    • UA Claims (South Donetsk - Last Week): 1206 RU personnel KIA/WIA, 14 tanks, 26 AFVs, 160 vehicles etc. dest. (UA TG "Vuhledar", 20:31 UTC).
    • UA Claims (Overall Past Day - UGS morning): 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, etc.
    • RU Claims (Kursk Zone - Past 24h): >190 UA personnel, 1 tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs, 5 vehicles, 2 arty, 1 mortar, 3 UAV CPs, 1 ammo depot (RU MoD, 20:25 UTC).
    • RU Claims (Other): High UA losses claimed in Rozlyv, Demidovka/Popovka. Failed UA counterattack in Zaporizhzhia. Destruction of tank/AFVs near Chasiv Yar. Destruction of 147 UA concentration areas. Destruction of UA FPV drone facility/personnel on Korabel Island, Kherson. Destruction of UA T-80 tank near Kostiantynivka (Colonelcassad, 20:33 UTC).
  • Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment): Expectations persist of potential large-scale Russian offensive (Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).
  • International Support & Coordination (Updated):
    • UK-UA Coordination: Zelenskyy-Starmer call coordinating steps; preparing meeting of military reps to discuss preparing contingents (Zelenskiy / Official, 20:11 UTC).
    • UK-FR-UA Meeting: Upcoming meeting planned focused on security guarantees (TASS/Reuters, 20:04 UTC).
    • EU Support/Sanctions (Updated): G5+ European FMs (incl. UK, FR, DE, IT, PL, ES + EE) stated intent to double aid, considering new sanctions against Russia. Affirmed they "will not accept any peace agreement that would limit Ukraine's military and defence industry or the military presence of partner countries in Ukraine" (Sternenko, 20:38 UTC; Tsaplienko/Reuters, 19:32 UTC).
    • EU Parliamentarians Visit: Zelenskyy met heads/representatives of partner/EU Parliaments in Bucha, reaffirming accountability stance.
    • US Diplomatic Stance: US State Dept reportedly working towards ceasefire and negotiations, acknowledging need for compromises from both sides, without advocating for interim administration (TASS quoting US source, via RVvoenkor, 20:43 UTC).
    • US/Trump Dynamics: White House: Trump expressed displeasure with statements from Zelenskyy/Putin, working towards peace deal.
    • India/UK Equipment Transfer Denial: Rosoboronexport denied NYT report alleging HAL transferred UK-origin equipment to Russia (TASS, 20:28 UTC).
  • Geopolitical Context & Information Operations:
    • Arestovych Commentary (RU Amplification): Russian sources amplify video of Arestovych suggesting Ukraine should cede territory now to avoid larger losses later (Alex Parker Returns, 20:18 UTC). Potential info op targeting UA morale/negotiating stance.
    • NYT Article Analysis (RU Interpretation): RU sources interpret NYT article as confirmation of US proxy war, Pentagon planning UA ops, US providing targeting data, and US viewing conflict as having no clear path to victory post-nuclear risk assessment in Fall 2022 (Colonelcassad, 20:03 UTC).
    • Belarus: US soldier reportedly detained after crossing border from Lithuania. Regional tension persists.
    • Moldova: Diplomatic tensions with Russia continue.
    • Georgia: Ongoing anti-government protests reported in Tbilisi (ASTRA, 20:10 UTC).

II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 19:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 20:45 UTC)

  • Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction (Updated): Intense fighting. UGS: 26 RU attacks repelled, 3 ongoing (Kursk Zone). Heavy fighting near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka). RU sources claim heavy fighting near Demidovka (Belgorod), allege ongoing UA attempts to breach defenses, claim RU counter-attacks partially cleared settlement (RVvoenkor). RU MoD claims >190 UA personnel KIA/WIA, 1 tank, 1 APC, 3 AFVs etc. destroyed in Kursk zone in 24h. RU logistical needs (vehicles) near Sudzha highlighted.
  • Kharkiv Direction: 6 RU attacks repelled near Vovchansk (UGS 19:00).
  • Kupyansk Direction: 9 RU assaults towards Pishchane, etc. 7 repelled, 2 ongoing (UGS 19:00).
  • Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 26 RU attacks. 20 repelled, 6 ongoing (UGS 19:00).
  • Siversk Direction: 3 RU assaults. 2 repelled, 1 ongoing (UGS 19:00).
  • Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar): 7 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar/Predtechyne repelled (UGS 19:00). RU claims destruction of UA tank + 3 AFVs.
  • Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. 14 RU attacks, 1 ongoing (UGS 19:00). DeepState reports chaotic situation near Toretsk mine, confirms RU occupation of Panteleimonivka, push towards Valentynivka.
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Highest Intensity (56 Attacks). Main RU focus. 50 attacks repelled, 6 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Significant RU losses claimed by UA. RU claims advance SE of Kotlyarivka; repulsed UA counter-attack in Uspenivka.
  • Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske / South Donetsk Directions (Updated): 9 Attacks reported by UGS near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya, towards Rozlyv. 5 repelled, 4 ongoing (UGS 19:00). Rozlyv status contested (RU claim capture vs UGS reports attacks towards it). Vuhledar Area: UA TG "Vuhledar" reports increased RU assaults last week, 226 repelled, high RU losses claimed. RU Claim: Destruction of UA T-80 tank near Kostiantynivka (Kostyantynopil?) direction (Colonelcassad, 20:33 UTC).
  • Huliaipole Direction: 9 Attacks repelled (UGS 19:00). Civilian casualties from RU strike (1 KIA, 5 WIA).
  • Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia): 9 Attacks repelled (UGS 19:00). RU claims failed UA counterattack. Civilian casualties from RU strike (1 KIA, 5 WIA).
  • Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 unsuccessful RU assault (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting. UA drone strikes on RU crossings. RU Claim: FAB-500 strikes hit Korabel Island (port area), destroying claimed UA FPV drone facility, causing ~30 KIA, 5 vehicles destroyed (Dva Mayora). Video allegedly shows strikes on Kherson city.
Previous (2025-03-31 20:16:43Z)

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