Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 20:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 19:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 175 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The highest intensity remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction (56 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (26 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (26 attacks repelled/ongoing per UGS; RU sources report continued heavy fighting), Toretsk (14 attacks), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Kupyansk (9 attacks), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Orikhiv (9 attacks), and Kramatorsk (7 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing.
Russian Strikes & Air Threats (Since start of day - UGS 19:00 UTC & Recent Reports):
1 Missile Strike (UGS 19:00).
73 Aviation Strikes (using 118 KABs) (UGS 19:00).
Approx. 650 Kamikaze Drones deployed (UGS 19:00).
Almost 4,000 shelling attacks on UA positions and settlements (UGS 19:00).
Civilian Casualties (Updated):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian strike on civilian objects in a frontline community resulted in 1 civilian KIA, 5 WIA (Updated count per OVA/RBC-Ukraina 20:08 UTC). Residential buildings and social facilities damaged/destroyed.
Specific Air/Drone Threats (Recent):
Monitoring channels continued to report no active Russian strike drone launches as of 19:19 UTC, noting this absence remains unusual (RBC-Ukraina, Tsaplienko).
Russian Air Activity: Ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation maintains a threat. RU sources highlight daily sorties, including Su-35s armed with air-to-air and Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles (Dva Mayora, 20:01 UTC).
Ukrainian Drone Interceptions (RU CLAIM): Governor of Bryansk Oblast (RU) claimed 6 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over the region (AV БогомаZ, 19:21 UTC).
Kherson Bombing Confirmation & Claim: Russian sources published video allegedly showing impacts from bombing strikes on Kherson city today (Shef Hayabusa, 19:22 UTC). Further RU claims specify FAB-500 w/ UMPK strikes on Korabel Island (port area), alleging destruction of a UA FPV drone assembly/launch site, up to 30 UA personnel KIA, and 5 vehicles destroyed (Dva Mayora, 20:05 UTC).
Other RU Strike Claims: Russian MoD claimed engagement of 147 AFU manpower/hardware concentration areas (MoD Russia, 19:33 UTC). Video claim of strike on UA forces in abandoned village (Archangel Spetsnaza, 19:39 UTC). Claim of precision strikes destroying UA fortifications/manpower to aid infantry (Voin DV, 20:03 UTC).
Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivsk, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), and efforts to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk/Belgorod border area. Maximalist Russian goals (capitulation, regime change) appear unchanged based on rhetoric; minimum goals include full control over the four illegally annexed oblasts.
Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status (Strong RU Claim - Reinforced):
RU CLAIM (Full Capture): Multiple Russian sources maintain strong claims of full capture of Rozlyv with geolocated flag evidence and consolidation efforts. Claimed control area >3km deep/wide.
UA ASSESSMENT (Contested): UGS (19:00 UTC) reports ongoing RU attacks towards Rozlyv (4 clashes ongoing), indicating the settlement remains contested or the RU claim is unconfirmed/refuted by UGS.
Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity (RU CLAIM - Reinforced): Russian sources reiterate claim forces are approximately 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border southeast of Kotlyarivka. UGS confirms intense fighting near Kotlyarivka.
Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka (RU CLAIM - Contested): Russian source claims Ukrainian forces attempted a breakthrough into Uspenivka (southern part), claiming partial liquidation and ongoing fighting. UGS confirms intense fighting near Uspenivka.
RU Claims (Advances/Losses): Claims of advances near Dniprovsky pond, Shevchenko microdistrict persist. Claimed destruction of UA tank and 3 armored vehicles near Chasiv Yar by RU 98th VDV Division (Colonelcassad, 19:07 UTC).
UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 26 RU attacks repelled in the Kursk operational zone, 3 clashes ongoing. Heavy fighting near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction. Russia conducted 24 air strikes (36 KABs) and 211 artillery/MLRS barrages in the zone (UGS 19:00 UTC).
RU CLAIM (Heavy Fighting/Counterattacks - Demidovka): Russian sources report heavy, ongoing fighting (13 days) in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district border area, particularly Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast). Claim continued UA attempts to infiltrate past border defenses. Assert RU reinforcements have been counter-attacking for several days in Demidovka and Popovka, claiming partial clearing of Demidovka (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC). Map provided claims to show geolocated RU artillery strikes on UA positions within Demidovka.
Toretsk Direction: UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 14 RU attacks, primarily near Toretsk. 1 clash ongoing. DeepState (18:45 UTC) highlights a chaotic situation near Toretsk mine with difficulties for UA forces (movement restricted by terrain/drones, lack of close support due to FPVs, unclear front line, RU numerical parity/superiority). DeepState confirms RU recently occupied Panteleimonivka and attempts advances towards Valentynivka.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv):
UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 9 RU attacks towards Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka repelled.
RU Claim (Failed UA Counterattack - VIDEO): TASS (19:05 UTC) released video/interview claiming UA forces unsuccessfully counterattacked RU positions in the area using armored vehicles including M113s.
Russian Force Posture & Capabilities:
Conscription (Updated): Spring 2025 conscription decree signed by Putin targets 160,000 citizens (record high since 2011, utilizes raised age limit up to 30). Official claims state conscripts will not deploy to SVO zones, however, numerous reports contradict this (ASTRA, 19:40 UTC).
Training: Contract soldier training timeline approx. 1 week to 1 month.
EW/Counter-Drone: Ongoing adaptation efforts noted. RU source claims Ukraine is mass-producing systems using fiber optic cables to detect drone launch sites based on light emissions, advising RU operators to change locations and employ countermeasures (NgP raZVedka, 19:33 UTC).
Logistics/Equipment (Updated): Fundraising appeals continue, indicating reliance on non-standard supply channels. Recent appeal highlights need for vehicles (UAZ/Niva, Quad bikes) for RU Marines operating in the Kursk direction (Sudzha area) (Dva Mayora, 19:50 UTC; Dnevnik Desantnika, 19:03 UTC; RVvoenkor).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts), acknowledged by RU sources reporting ongoing UA pressure near Demidovka (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC).
Logistics/Equipment Needs: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's previously highlighted needs remain relevant. Ongoing fundraising appeals underscore critical shortages, particularly for FPV drones and related equipment (Sternenko, 19:00, 19:10, 19:42 UTC).
Fortifications Critique: Internal Ukrainian source (Butusov Plus, 19:21 UTC) raised concerns about the visibility and potential vulnerability of some newly constructed MoD defensive strongpoints to drone observation and attack.
Commendations: UGS (19:00 UTC) commends 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade and 49th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade for steadfast defense.
UA Claims (Overall Past Day - UGS morning): 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, 1 AD sys, 85 vehicles.
RU Claims: High UA losses claimed in Rozlyv, Demidovka/Pogrebki (Kursk/Belgorod), failed counterattack in Zaporizhzhia area, destruction of tank/AFVs near Chasiv Yar. Claimed destruction of 147 UA concentration areas, repair bases, airfield equipment, drone CP. Specific claim of destroying UA FPV drone facility/personnel on Korabel Island, Kherson (Dva Mayora, 20:05 UTC).
Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment): Expectations persist of a potential new large-scale Russian offensive (possibly Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) aiming to improve negotiating positions.
International Support & Coordination (Updated):
UK-UA Coordination: President Zelenskyy spoke with UK PM Keir Starmer, coordinating steps and preparing for meetings of military representatives to discuss preparing contingents (Zelenskiy / Official, 19:00 UTC & 20:11 UTC).
UK-FR-UA Meeting: An upcoming meeting between the UK, France, and Ukraine focused on security guarantees for Kyiv is planned (TASS/Reuters, 20:04 UTC).
EU Support/Sanctions: G5+ European foreign ministers (incl. UK, FR, DE, IT, PL, ES + EE) met, stating intent to double aid to Ukraine and considering new sanctions against Russia to pressure for a ceasefire on equitable terms (Tsaplienko/Reuters, 19:32 UTC).
EU Parliamentarians Visit: President Zelenskyy met with heads/representatives of partner parliaments and the European Parliament in Bucha, reaffirming commitment to holding Russia accountable and thanking for ongoing support (Zelenskiy/Official, 19:41 UTC; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 19:55 UTC; DeepState, 19:56 UTC). Zelenskyy emphasized that forgiving Russian crimes would mean accepting the Russian system's right to exist and expand.
US Technological Developments: US Army tested the Hellhound S3 3D-printed turbojet kamikaze drone (603 km/h, 35km range), potential future capability relevant to LASSO program (Dva Mayora, 19:31 UTC).
US/Trump Dynamics (Updated): White House spokesperson stated US President Trump expressed displeasure with statements from both Zelenskyy and Putin and is working towards a peace deal (RVvoenkor, 19:15 UTC; RBC-Ukraina 19:50 UTC). NYT article analysis (per RU source) suggests US assessment of nuclear risk in Fall 2022 influenced subsequent strategy, potentially viewing the conflict as having no clear path to victory post-crisis (Colonelcassad, 20:03 UTC).
Geopolitical Context & Information Operations:
US Strategic Focus (RU Narrative): Russian sources claim US establishing a combat HQ in Japan signals a deprioritization of Europe/Ukraine (Starshe Eddy, 19:32 UTC).
Belarus: US soldier reportedly detained after illegally crossing border from Lithuania. Follows recent sinking of US M88A2 near Belarus border during exercises (3 KIA, 1 MIA). Increases regional tension.
Moldova: Diplomatic tensions with Russia persist.
Georgia: Ongoing anti-government protests reported in Tbilisi (ASTRA, 20:10 UTC).
II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 19:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 20:15 UTC)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction (Updated): Intense fighting continues. UGS reported 26 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast operational zone, 3 clashes ongoing as of 19:00 UTC. Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka). Russia conducted 24 air strikes (36 KABs) and 211 artillery/MLRS barrages in the zone. RU sources claim heavy fighting persists near Demidovka (Belgorod Oblast), alleging ongoing UA attempts to breach defenses and claiming RU counter-attacks have partially cleared the settlement (RVvoenkor, 19:58 UTC). RU sources also highlight logistical needs (vehicles) for their Marines operating near Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) (Dva Mayora, 19:50 UTC).
Kharkiv Direction: 6 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk (UGS 19:00).
Kupyansk Direction: 9 Russian assaults towards Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Petropavlivka, near Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka. 7 attacks repelled, 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 19:00).
Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 26 Russian attacks near Nadiia, Dibrova, Kolodyazi; towards Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka. 20 attacks repelled, 6 clashes ongoing (UGS 19:00).
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions (9 Attacks): Clashes near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya, and towards Rozlyv. 5 attacks repelled, 4 clashes ongoing (UGS 19:00). KAB strikes on Novopavlivka, Bahatyr, Odradne, Vesele.
Rozlyv Status: Contested. Strong RU claim of full capture, but UGS reports ongoing RU attacks towards Rozlyv.
Huliaipole Direction (9 Attacks): Clashes near Novosilka, Pryvilne, and towards Vilne Pole, Novopil. All repelled (UGS 19:00). KAB strikes on Temirivka, Velykomykhailivka, Zelene Pole. Civilian Casualties (Updated): Russian strike on a frontline community caused 1 KIA, 5 WIA (RBC-Ukraina, 20:08 UTC).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia - 9 Attacks): Clashes towards Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka. All repelled (UGS 19:00). KAB strike on Malokaterynivka.
RU Claim (Failed UA Counterattack): Alleged unsuccessful UA counterattack using M113s reported by RU MoD source (TASS, 19:05 UTC).
Civilian Casualties (Updated): Russian strike on a frontline community caused 1 KIA, 5 WIA (RBC-Ukraina, 20:08 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson) (Updated): 1 unsuccessful Russian assault action (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting. UA units strike RU crossings (Nemesis 412th OPBS). Russian sources published video allegedly showing impacts from bombing strikes on Kherson city today (Shef Hayabusa, 19:22 UTC). RU sources claim FAB-500 w/ UMPK strikes hit Korabel Island (port area), destroying a claimed UA FPV drone facility and causing significant casualties (Dva Mayora, 20:05 UTC).
