Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 19:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 19:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 175 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The highest intensity remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction (56 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (26 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (26 attacks repelled/ongoing), Toretsk (14 attacks), Novopavlivsk (9 attacks), Kupyansk (9 attacks), Huliaipole (9 attacks), Orikhiv (9 attacks), and Kramatorsk (7 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing.
Russian Strikes & Air Threats (Since start of day - UGS 19:00 UTC):
1 Missile Strike.
73 Aviation Strikes (using 118 KABs).
Approx. 650 Kamikaze Drones deployed.
Almost 4,000 shelling attacks on UA positions and settlements.
Specific Air Threats (Recent):
Sumy Oblast: Launch of Russian Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) reported towards the region (UA AF, 18:28 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert cancelled (ZA OVA, 18:40 UTC). Previously, a fast-moving target was reported heading towards Zaporizhzhia (UA AF, 18:20 UTC).
Tactical Aviation Activity: Ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation maintaining a threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts (UA AF, 18:12 UTC).
Drone Activity Note: Monitoring channels reported no active Russian strike drone launches as of 19:03 UTC (RBC-Ukraina).
Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivsk, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), and efforts to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area.
Analysis based on Russian media suggests maximalist Russian goals remain unchanged (capitulation, regime change, dependency). Minimum goals include full control over the four illegally annexed oblasts and limiting Ukraine's sovereignty. Current Kremlin strategy reportedly focuses on discrediting President Zelenskyy to pressure Kyiv.
Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status (Strong RU Claim - Reinforced):
RU CLAIM (Full Capture - Repeatedly Reinforced): Multiple Russian sources continue to strongly claim full capture of Rozlyv by units of the 36th GMRB and 430th MRP (29th Army), with geolocated flag evidence (47.97339, 36.99693, 47.97036, 37.002) and consolidation efforts. Claimed control area >3km deep/wide. RU maps depict claimed control.
UA ASSESSMENT (Requires Update): UGS (19:00 UTC) reports ongoing RU attacks towards Rozlyv (4 clashes ongoing). This implies Rozlyv is contested or the RU claim of full capture remains unconfirmed/refuted by UGS. Previous UA confirmation of RU advance in Rozlyv (DeepState, Mar 30).
Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity (RU CLAIM - Reinforced): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika) reiterate claim forces of the 80th Tank Regiment advanced SE of Kotlyarivka, are now approximately 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. UGS (19:00 UTC) confirms intense fighting near Kotlyarivka.
Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka (RU CLAIM - Contested): Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims Ukrainian forces attempted a breakthrough into Uspenivka (southern part), claiming partial liquidation and ongoing fighting in S/NW parts ("grey zone"). UGS (19:00 UTC) confirms intense fighting near Uspenivka.
Kramatorsk Direction / Chasiv Yar:
Ground Combat: UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 7 RU attacks near Chasiv Yar and towards Predtechyne.
RU Claims (Advances): RU source (Dnevnik Desantnika) claims advances near Dniprovsky pond, pressure from Ognupornik, and advances within Shevchenko microdistrict (S/E).
RU Claim (UA Losses - VIDEO): RU source (Colonelcassad, 19:07 UTC) claims destruction of a UA tank and 3 armored vehicles attempting evacuation/entry into Chasiv Yar by RU 98th VDV Division.
UA Preparations (RU Observation): RU sources continue reporting significant Ukrainian reinforcement activity towards Chasiv Yar, potential counter-attack preparations, situation termed "alarming" for RU forces.
RU Strike Claim: Hit on UA drone company CP in Druzhkivka (Dnevnik Desantnika).
Kupyansk / Oskil River Crossing (UA CONFIRMED SUCCESS): OSUV Khortytsia previously confirmed destruction of a Russian TMM heavy mechanized bridge near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast), countering RU efforts west of the river. UGS (19:00 UTC) reports ongoing fighting near river crossings (Pishchane, Zahryzove).
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area:
UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 26 RU attacks repelled in the Kursk operational zone throughout the day, 3 clashes ongoing. Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction.
Russia conducted 24 air strikes (36 KABs) and 211 artillery barrages (7 MLRS) against UA positions/settlements in the zone (UGS 19:00 UTC).
RU MoD previously claimed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka). RU sources claimed ongoing fighting/liberation attempts in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy), anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk). Video allegedly showing UA casualties in Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast) circulated.
Toretsk Direction: UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 14 RU attacks, primarily near Toretsk. 1 clash ongoing. UA previously confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). RU previously claimed reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka. DeepState (18:45 UTC) reports chaotic situation near Toretsk mine, difficulties for UA forces (movement restricted by terrain/drones, lack of close support due to FPVs, unclear front line, RU numerical parity/superiority in assaults). DeepState also notes RU occupied Panteleimonivka recently and attempts advances towards Valentynivka.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv):
UGS (19:00 UTC) reports 9 RU attacks towards Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka. All repelled. Air strike on Malokaterynivka.
RU Claim (Failed UA Counterattack - VIDEO): TASS (19:05 UTC) released video interview with RU commander (428th MRP) claiming UA forces unsuccessfully counterattacked RU positions in "Zaporizhzhia" settlement (likely area, not city) using armored vehicles including M113s.
Russian Force Posture & Capabilities:
Spring 2025 conscription decree targets 160,000 citizens. Claims conscripts won't deploy to SVO zones.
Contract soldier training timeline approx. 1 week to 1 month (Yevkurov via WarGonzo).
Ongoing EW/Counter-Drone adaptation efforts noted by RU sources. Increasing use of FPV interceptor drones by RU forces observed (UA source Tsaplienko).
Fundraising appeals for equipment (drone batteries, general support) continue (Dnevnik Desantnika, 19:03 UTC; RVvoenkor, Dva Mayora).
UA Claims (Overall Past Day - UGS morning): 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, 1 AD sys, 85 vehicles.
RU Claims: High UA losses claimed in Rozlyv, Pogrebki (Kursk), failed counterattack in Zaporizhzhia area, destruction of tank/AFVs near Chasiv Yar. Claims destruction of repair bases, airfield equipment, drone CP.
Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment): Expectations remain of a potential new large-scale Russian offensive (possibly Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) aiming to improve negotiating positions (Radio Svoboda analysis via Sever.Realii).
International Support & Coordination:
UK-UA Coordination: President Zelenskyy spoke with UK PM Keir Starmer, coordinating diplomatic/security steps, preparing for meetings of military representatives to discuss preparing contingents (Zelenskiy / Official, Syniehubov, RBC-Ukraina 19:00 UTC).
US/Trump Dynamics: Visit by Pastor Mark Burns (Trump advisor) advocating for weapons over money continues to be discussed in UA/RU info space.
Regional/Geopolitical Context:
Moldova: Diplomatic tensions persist over expulsion of Russian diplomats.
Lithuania/Belarus/US: 3 US soldiers confirmed KIA, 1 MIA after M88A2 sank during exercises near Belarus border. US soldier reportedly detained in Belarus after being found on train from Lithuania. Increases regional tension.
II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 19:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 19:15 UTC)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction: Intense fighting. UGS reported 26 RU attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast operational zone, 3 clashes ongoing as of 19:00 UTC. Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction. Russia conducted 24 air strikes (36 KABs) and 211 artillery/MLRS barrages in the zone.
Kharkiv Direction: 6 Russian attacks repelled near Vovchansk (UGS 19:00).
Kupyansk Direction: 9 Russian assaults towards Pishchane, Nova Kruhliakivka, Petropavlivka, near Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka. 7 attacks repelled, 2 clashes ongoing (UGS 19:00). UA previously destroyed RU TMM bridge near Dvorichna.
Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 26 Russian attacks near Nadiia, Dibrova, Kolodyazi; towards Nove, Serebryanka, Torske, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka. 20 attacks repelled, 6 clashes ongoing (UGS 19:00).
RU Activity: Strikes by "Vega" Spetsnaz destroying UA Kozak-7, pickup truck claimed (Operatsiya Z).
Novopavlivsk / Velykonovosilkivske Directions (9 Attacks): Clashes near Kostiantynopil, Burlatske, Dniproenerhiya, and towards Rozlyv. 5 attacks repelled, 4 clashes ongoing (UGS 19:00). KAB strikes on Novopavlivka, Bahatyr, Odradne, Vesele.
Rozlyv Status: Contested. Strong RU claim of full capture, but UGS reports ongoing RU attacks towards Rozlyv. Urgent clarification needed.
Huliaipole Direction (9 Attacks): Clashes near Novosilka, Pryvilne, and towards Vilne Pole, Novopil. All repelled (UGS 19:00). KAB strikes on Temirivka, Velykomykhailivka, Zelene Pole.
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia - 9 Attacks): Clashes towards Mali Shcherbaky, Lobkove, Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, Novodanylivka. All repelled (UGS 19:00). KAB strike on Malokaterynivka.
RU Claim (Failed UA Counterattack): Alleged unsuccessful UA counterattack using M113s reported by RU MoD source (TASS, 19:05 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): 1 unsuccessful Russian assault action (UGS 19:00). Positional fighting. UA units strike RU crossings (Nemesis 412th OPBS). 3 KABs hit Kherson city earlier (UA source, 18:18 UTC). RU claimed strike on Korabel Island.
