Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 18:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple sectors. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The highest intensity remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing. Over the previous 24 hours (to 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded.
Air Threats:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert cancelled (ZA OVA, 18:40 UTC). Previously, a fast-moving target was reported heading towards Zaporizhzhia (UA AF, 18:20 UTC).
Sumy Oblast: Launch of Russian Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) reported towards the region (UA AF, 18:28 UTC).
Tactical Aviation Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports ongoing activity of Russian tactical aviation (18:12 UTC), maintaining a threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts. Activity previously noted specifically on the southeastern direction (17:58 UTC).
Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), and efforts to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults.
Analysis based on Russian media (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko citing Moscow Times, 17:44, 17:59, 18:05 UTC) suggests maximalist Russian goals remain: capitulation, regime change, establishing Belarus-style dependency. Minimum goals include full control over the four illegally annexed oblasts and limiting Ukraine's political/military sovereignty. Current Kremlin strategy reportedly involves discrediting President Zelenskyy (portraying him as illegitimate/unwilling to make concessions) to pressure Kyiv into elections and potentially install more compliant leadership. Personal animosity from Putin towards Zelenskyy also cited as a factor.
Key Developments & Claims:
Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status (Strong RU Claim - Reinforced):
RU CLAIM (Full Capture - Repeatedly Reinforced): Multiple Russian sources (Voin DV, Dva Mayora, Slivochny Kapriz, Rybar, Voenkor Kotenok, Podduhbny, RVvoenkor, Z Komitet, Colonelcassad, Mar 30-31) strongly claim full capture of Rozlyv by units of the 36th GMRB and 430th MRP (29th Army). Assert control established over a significant area (>3km deep/wide), flags raised on structures (geolocated to 47.97339, 36.99693 and 47.97036, 37.002), and forces consolidating. Claim includes advance of up to 900m within residential areas, clearing ~400 structures, and inflicting >150 UA casualties over 10 days. Visual confirmation of RU flag placement provided via drone footage. RU maps (Voenkor Kotenok, 18:16 UTC) depict claimed control over Rozlyv and surrounding areas towards Bogatyr/Konstantinopol. Previous UA confirmation of RU advance in Rozlyv (DeepState, Mar 30).
UA ASSESSMENT (Requires Update): Previous UA confirmation of RU advance within Rozlyv (DeepState, Mar 30). No subsequent UA update refuting the heavily reinforced RU claim of full capture noted.
Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity (RU CLAIM - Reinforced): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:28, 18:29 UTC) reiterate claim forces of the 80th Tank Regiment advanced SE of Kotlyarivka, clearing forest belts, and are now approximately 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.
Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka (RU CLAIM - Contested): Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:37 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces attempted a new breakthrough into Uspenivka, landing troops in the southern part. Claims part of the group was liquidated, others took cover in basements. Asserts southern and northwestern parts are contested ("grey zone"), with ongoing fighting. Previous RU claims (Mar 30) of controlling northern Uspenivka (Kursk border area).
Chasiv Yar / Kramatorsk Direction (RU Claims):
Ground Advances: Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:29 UTC) claims forces advanced from Novoseverny microdistrict near the Dniprovsky pond shore, pressured defenses towards the pond from Ognupornik, and advanced within the Shevchenko microdistrict (south/east).
Preparations: Russian sources (Filolog v Zasade, Temniy, 16:05-16:24 UTC) continue to report observing significant Ukrainian reinforcement activity towards Chasiv Yar, including armored vehicle movement, personnel/equipment concentrations, increased UA drone activity, and potential counter-attack preparations. Sources describe the situation as "alarming" for Russian forces.
Strike: RU source claims strike on UA drone company command post in Druzhkivka (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:29 UTC).
Kupyansk / Oskil River Crossing (UA CONFIRMED SUCCESS): OSUV Khortytsia confirmed (Mar 30/31) the destruction of a Russian heavy mechanized bridge (TMM) during an attempted enemy crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast). This action successfully countered Russian efforts to establish or expand bridgeheads west of the river. Previous RU claims (Mar 30/31) of expanding bridgeheads west of Oskil require verification.
Kursk/Belgorod Border Area (RU Claims): RU MoD previously confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Gogolevka) (Mar 31). RU sources claimed ongoing fighting/liberation attempts in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy), anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk) (Mar 31). Claimed UA mining of Sudzha district with NATO munitions (Mar 31). Video allegedly showing numerous UA casualties in Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast) circulated (18:03 UTC).
Toretsk Direction (RU Claims): Following claimed capture of Oleksandropil and Panteleimonivka, RU sources previously claimed reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka (Mar 31). UA previously confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
Russian Force Posture & Capabilities:
Decree for the Spring 2025 conscription campaign (Apr 1 - Jul 15) targets 160,000 citizens (18-30 yrs). Official statements claim conscripts will not be deployed to SVO zones or occupied territories. Electronic summons and travel restrictions are being implemented.
Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov outlined contract soldier training timelines as approximately 1 week to 1 month within reserve regiments before frontline deployment (WarGonzo interview, 16:22 UTC).
EW / Counter-Drone Discussion: Russian milblogger (Starshe Eddy, 17:56 UTC) highlights limitations of relying solely on EW, emphasizing the need for a combined approach (optical detection, EW, kinetic kill) for effective counter-drone defense. Notes EW systems need constant adaptation and criticizes commanders blaming EW operators alone for breaches.
FPV Interceptors: Ukrainian source (Tsaplienko, 18:08 UTC) notes increasing Russian use of FPV interceptor drones (with day/night optics) to counter Ukrainian UAVs, citing photo evidence from 61st Marine Brigade area. Suggests tactic adoption potentially accelerated by public sharing of Ukrainian intercept videos.
Reports from captured Russian soldiers and RU propaganda efforts continue. Fundraising appeals highlight equipment needs (RVvoenkor, 17:13 UTC; Dva Mayora, 17:57 UTC) and losses on the Belgorod/Kursk fronts.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 30).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). UGS reported 9 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast with 5 clashes ongoing (16:00 UTC). Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction (Kotsnews, 17:20 UTC).
Ukrainian drone units continue active operations across fronts (e.g., Flying Skull strike in Pokrovsk direction, Sternenko, 16:29 UTC; Ronin unit of 65th Bde targeting RU equipment/artillery on Zaporizhzhia direction, Sternenko, 17:41 UTC). RU source video shows "Vega" Spetsnaz targeting UA Kozak-7 vehicle and pickup truck near Pokrovsk (Operatsiya Z, 18:34 UTC).
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously highlighted needs for EW-resistant drones, enhanced brigade capabilities, summer equipment preparations, and improved vehicle FPV protection.
Ongoing recruitment efforts. Clarification on service for those deemed "limited fitness" provided (rear units, TCCs, educational institutions) (RBC-Ukraina, 18:11 UTC).
Strike Campaign & Civilian Impact:
High tempo of Russian strikes using KABs, artillery, FPV/Shahed drones continues. Over past 24 hours (to 06:00 UTC Mar 31), Russia conducted 2 missile, 116 air (223 KABs on UA proper + 20 air/31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), 2620 kamikaze drone, and >5300 shelling attacks (UGS).
NEW Strike Reports (Mar 31 Evening):
Kherson City:3 KABs hit the city (UA source Shef Hayabusa, 18:18 UTC).
Sumy Oblast: KABs launched towards the region (UA AF, 18:28 UTC).
Zaporizhzhia: Fast target detected towards the city (UA AF, 18:20 UTC); air alert subsequently cancelled (ZA OVA, 18:40 UTC).
RU CLAIMED Strikes: Hit on UA repair base/depots in Andriivka (Donetsk); destruction of equipment/facilities at Ozerne Airfield (Zhytomyr); hit on UA drone company CP in Druzhkivka (Kramatorsk) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:29 UTC).
Civilian Casualties (Mar 31 Updates - As Reported):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Frontline Community):3 WIA (74yo woman - moderate; 66yo woman recovered from rubble - initially reported KIA, updated to WIA; 46yo woman, 57yo man - moderate) from RU strike (UA ZOVA, 16:16-18:13 UTC).
Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast):2 WIA (54M, 46F) from RU artillery/drones (Vilkul/ASTRA/Lysak).
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast):3 WIA (59M, 74F, 53F) from 7 KABs (ASTRA/Syniehubov, Mar 31).
Significant infrastructure damage reported in affected areas (Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Kupyansk). Kharkiv city sustained significant fire damage from Shahed strikes overnight (Mar 30-31).
Simferopol (Occupied Crimea): Explosion reported at railway station, attributed by Russian MoD to short circuit (Mar 31, ~17:46 UTC).
Reported Losses:
UA Claims: UGS/Syrskyi reported 408 Russian artillery systems destroyed (Mar 24-31), 4,005 systems destroyed since Jan 1, 2025. Past day: 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, 1 AD sys, 85 vehicles (Vilkul quoting UGS).
RU Claims: Alleged UA drone cause 70% of RU casualties (Mar 30). Claims UA uses young recruits (18-25 yrs) in counterattacks (Basovka). Repeated claims of high UA losses in Rozlyv (>150 over 10 days) and Pogrebki (Kursk). Claims destruction of UA Kozak-7, pickup truck near Pokrovsk. Claims destruction of repair bases, airfield equipment, drone CP.
Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment): Analysis suggests Russia may prepare a new offensive aimed at improving negotiating positions, potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian military reportedly expects a new RU offensive across a 1000km front (Radio Svoboda analysis via Sever.Realii, 17:42 UTC).
International Support & Coordination:
UK-UA Coordination: President Zelenskyy spoke with UK PM Keir Starmer, coordinating diplomatic/security steps, discussing pressure on Russia, preparing for meetings of military representatives (Zelenskiy / Official, Syniehubov, 18:13 UTC).
Military Aid: Netherlands (€500M for drones), Sweden (record €1.6B package) previously noted.
US/Trump Dynamics: Visit by Pastor Mark Burns (Trump's spiritual advisor) to Ukraine, advocating for weapons over money (Sternenko, RBC-Ukraina, Operatyvnyi ZSU, 18:34-18:44 UTC). Ongoing discussions/analysis related to potential Trump presidency impacts (rare earth deal, nuclear rhetoric, US/UA coordination). Russian sources analyze NYT reporting on alleged US-UA command disagreements (Rybar, 17:28 UTC; Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 18:31 UTC).
Regional/Geopolitical Context:
Moldova: Diplomatic tensions continue; Moldova declared 3 Russian diplomats persona non grata, alleging involvement in politician's escape. Russia denies (Rybar, 18:22 UTC).
Lithuania/Belarus/US: Search concluded for US soldiers after M88A2 sank during exercises near Belarus border. 3 KIA confirmed, 1 MIA. US soldier reportedly detained in Belarus after being found on train from Lithuania (Dva Mayora, ASTRA, 18:36, 18:40 UTC). Incident increases regional tension.
Georgia: Protests continue with former president calling for new elections (Colonelcassad, 18:16 UTC).
France: Internal political situation involving Marine Le Pen conviction (Rybar, 18:39 UTC).
US/China: Tensions noted over potential US acquisition of Panama Canal ports from Chinese company (Dva Mayora, 18:44 UTC).
Information Environment:
Russia continues propaganda efforts (POW videos, KIA family contact, alleged UA aid corruption, Z-rapper incident, Yanukovych toilet myth debunking, Trump-related narratives, alleged UA mining with NATO munitions, casualty videos). Narrative pushed about Kremlin seeking Zelenskyy's removal.
Ukrainian sources highlight Pastor Burns' visit advocating for weapons.
II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 16:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 18:45 UTC)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction: Intense fighting. UGS reported 14 engagements total, with 9 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast and 5 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 UTC. Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction.
RU Claims: Ongoing offensive actions hitting UA units near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk). Claimed repelling UA counterattack near Basovka (Sumy). Claimed continued UA ground infiltration attempts near Demidovka (Belgorod). Video released allegedly showing significant UA casualties in Pogrebki (Kursk). RU sources claim ongoing fighting/liberation attempts in Huyevo (Kursk) and Basivka (Sumy). Anticipate fighting for Oleshnia (Kursk).
Kupyansk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (UGS 16:00). UA confirmed destruction of RU TMM heavy mechanized bridge near Dvorichna (Mar 30/31).
Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 14 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS 16:00). UA previously confirmed RU advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Siversk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka (UGS 16:00). RU previously claimed maneuvers towards Hryhorivka (Mar 31).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar): 2 Russian attempts stopped near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS 16:00).
RU Claims: Advance near Dniprovsky pond from Novoseverny microdistrict; pressure towards pond from Ognupornik; advances within Shevchenko microdistrict (S/E) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:29 UTC). Significant UA reinforcement/counter-attack preparations reported, situation termed "alarming" for RU forces. Claimed strike on UA drone CP in Druzhkivka.
Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. 10 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Krymske, Toretsk, Dyliivka (UGS 16:00). UA previously confirmed RU advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30). RU previously claimed reaching outskirts of Valentynivka, fighting for Tarasivka (Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity (36 Attacks). Main RU focus. Clashes near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, towards Kalynove.
RU Claim (Advance): Advance SE of Kotlyarivka, now 2-4km from Dnipropetrovsk border (Dnevnik Desantnika, 18:29 UTC).
RU Claim (UA Counter-Attack): UA forces attempted breakthrough into Uspenivka, landed troops in south. Fighting ongoing, S/NW parts contested (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:37 UTC).
RU Activity: Claimed strikes by "Vega" Spetsnaz destroying UA Kozak-7, pickup truck (Operatsiya Z, 18:34 UTC). Claimed strike on UA repair base/depots in Andriivka.
UA Activity: Drone units active (e.g., Flying Skull).
Rozlyv Status:Strong, multi-sourced, visually supported, and repeatedly reinforced RU claim of full capture (36th GMRB, 430th MRP) with geolocated flag evidence and claimed control area >3x3km. RU maps show claimed control. UA assessment requires urgent update following previous confirmation of RU advance within the settlement.
South Donetsk Direction (Vremivka Salient): Fighting ongoing. RU sources associate Rozlyv capture with this direction (Bogatyr area).
Huliaipole Direction (8 Attacks): Clashes near Pryvilne (UGS 16:00). RU "Vostok" Group previously claimed advances/inflicting casualties near Volnoye Pole (Mar 31).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia - 7 Attacks): Clashes near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, Nesteryanka (UGS 16:00). UA drone units (65th Bde "Ronin") active. Air raid alert ended (18:40 UTC). Intense RU strike activity reported previously (395 strikes in 24h across 11 settlements, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 31). RU previously claimed fighting near Shcherbaky, tank kill near Novodanylivka (Mar 31).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. RU claimed aviation strike on Korabel Island (Dva Mayora, 17:13 UTC). 3 KABs reported hit Kherson city (UA source, 18:18 UTC).
