Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 18:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple sectors. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The highest intensity remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing. Over the previous 24 hours (to 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded.
Air Threats:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert declared across the entire oblast (ZOVA, 17:56 UTC).
Tactical Aviation Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the southeastern direction (17:58 UTC) and generally (18:12 UTC), warning of a threat of air-launched weapons for frontline oblasts.
Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), and efforts to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults.
Analysis based on Russian media (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko citing Moscow Times, 17:44, 17:59, 18:05 UTC) suggests maximalist Russian goals remain: capitulation, regime change, establishing Belarus-style dependency. Minimum goals include full control over the four illegally annexed oblasts and limiting Ukraine's political/military sovereignty. Current Kremlin strategy reportedly involves discrediting President Zelenskyy (portraying him as illegitimate/unwilling to make concessions) to pressure Kyiv into elections and potentially install more compliant leadership. Personal animosity from Putin towards Zelenskyy also cited as a factor.
Key Developments & Claims:
Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status (Strong RU Claim - Reinforced):
RU CLAIM (Full Capture - Repeatedly Reinforced): Multiple Russian sources (Voin DV, Dva Mayora, Slivochny Kapriz, Rybar, Voenkor Kotenok, Podduhbny, RVvoenkor, Z Komitet, Colonelcassad, 16:55-17:57 UTC) strongly claim full capture of Rozlyv by units of the 36th GMRB and 430th MRP (29th Army). Assert control established over a significant area (>3km deep/wide), flags raised on structures (geolocated to 47.97339, 36.99693 and 47.97036, 37.002), and forces consolidating. Claim includes advance of up to 900m within residential areas, clearing ~400 structures, and inflicting >150 UA casualties over 10 days. Visual confirmation of RU flag placement provided via drone footage.
UA ASSESSMENT (Previously Contested - Requires Update): Earlier Ukrainian source (DeepState, 16:33 UTC) indicated ongoing Russian infiltration and accumulation within Rozlyv. No subsequent UA update contradicting the reinforced RU claim noted.
Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity (RU CLAIM): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:28 UTC) reiterate claim forces of the 80th Tank Regiment advanced SE of Kotlyarivka, clearing forest belts, and are now approximately 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.
Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka (RU CLAIM): Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:37 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces attempted a new breakthrough into Uspenivka, landing troops in the southern part. Claims part of the group was liquidated, others took cover in basements. Asserts southern and northwestern parts are contested ("grey zone"), with ongoing fighting.
Chasiv Yar Preparations (RU CLAIM): Russian sources (Filolog v Zasade, Temniy, 16:05-16:24 UTC) continue to report observing significant Ukrainian reinforcement activity towards Chasiv Yar, including armored vehicle movement, personnel/equipment concentrations, increased UA drone activity, and potential counter-attack preparations. Sources describe the situation as "alarming" for Russian forces.
Kupyansk / Oskil River Crossing (UA CONFIRMED SUCCESS): OSUV Khortytsia confirmed (Mar 30/31) the destruction of a Russian heavy mechanized bridge (TMM) during an attempted enemy crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast). This action successfully countered Russian efforts to establish or expand bridgeheads west of the river.
Russian Force Posture & Capabilities:
Decree for the Spring 2025 conscription campaign (Apr 1 - Jul 15) targets 160,000 citizens (18-30 yrs). Official statements claim conscripts will not be deployed to SVO zones or occupied territories. Electronic summons and travel restrictions are being implemented. Service "SIM-cards" on Gosuslugi to launch Apr 1 (TASS, 17:16 UTC).
Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov outlined contract soldier training timelines as approximately 1 week to 1 month within reserve regiments before frontline deployment (WarGonzo interview, 16:22 UTC).
EW / Counter-Drone Discussion: Russian milblogger (Starshe Eddy, 17:56 UTC) highlights limitations of relying solely on EW, emphasizing the need for a combined approach (optical detection, EW, kinetic kill) for effective counter-drone defense. Notes EW systems need constant adaptation to active frequencies and criticizes commanders blaming EW operators for drone breaches when other defenses are lacking. Acknowledges rapid evolution of warfare surpassing traditional defenses.
FPV Interceptors: Ukrainian source (Tsaplienko, 18:08 UTC) notes increasing Russian use of FPV interceptor drones (with day/night optics) to counter Ukrainian UAVs, citing photo evidence from 61st Marine Brigade area. Suggests the tactic, initially used by Ukraine, was potentially adopted faster due to Ukrainian forces sharing intercept videos publicly.
Reports from captured Russian soldiers and RU propaganda efforts continue: POWs report morale issues, attrition, poor training/logistics, forced mobilization (MoD Russia video claim). RU propaganda piece (Kursk direction) shows soldier contacting KIA's family (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 16:18 UTC). Fundraising appeals highlight equipment needs (RVvoenkor, 17:13 UTC; Dva Mayora, 17:57 UTC) and losses on the Belgorod/Kursk fronts. Russian sources (MOBILIZATION | News | Srochniki) highlight social impact via story of soldier's widow suicide. Video allegedly showing numerous UA casualties in Pogrebki (Kursk Oblast) circulated by RU sources (Dva Mayora quoting Pioner Zapasa, 18:03 UTC).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 30).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). UGS reported 9 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast with 5 clashes ongoing (16:00 UTC). RU MoD acknowledged repelling one UA counterattack in Kursk Oblast (Mar 30). RU sources claimed repelling another UA counterattack near Basovka (Sumy), alleging use of young recruits (18-25 yrs) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:59 UTC).
Ukrainian drone units continue active operations across fronts (e.g., Flying Skull strike in Pokrovsk direction, Sternenko, 16:29 UTC; Ronin unit of 65th Bde targeting RU equipment/artillery on Zaporizhzhia direction, Sternenko, 17:41 UTC). RU FPV strike shown bypassed EW (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 17:42 UTC).
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously highlighted needs for EW-resistant drones, enhanced brigade capabilities, summer equipment preparations, and improved vehicle FPV protection.
Ongoing recruitment efforts across various specialties advertised (BUTUSOV PLIUS, 16:54 UTC; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 17:25 UTC). Clarification on service for those deemed "limited fitness" provided (rear units, TCCs, educational institutions) (RBC-Ukraina, 18:11 UTC).
Strike Campaign & Civilian Impact:
High tempo of Russian strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV/Shahed drones continues. Over past 24 hours (to 06:00 UTC Mar 31), Russia conducted 2 missile, 116 air (223 KABs on UA proper + 20 air/31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), 2620 kamikaze drone, and >5300 shelling attacks (UGS).
Civilian Casualties (Mar 31 Updates - UPDATED):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Frontline Community):3 WIA (66yo woman recovered from rubble - initially reported KIA but updated to WIA; 46yo woman, 57yo man, 74yo woman - moderate condition) from RU strike (UA ZOVA, 16:16, 17:07, 17:17, 18:11 UTC; Operatyvnyi ZSU 18:13 UTC).
Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast):2 WIA (54M, 46F) from RU artillery/drones (Vilkul/ASTRA/Lysak). Damage to homes, infrastructure, admin building, enterprise, gas station.
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast):3 WIA (59M, 74F, 53F) from 7 KABs (ASTRA/Syniehubov, Mar 31).
Significant infrastructure damage reported in affected areas (Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Kupyansk).
Simferopol (Occupied Crimea): Explosion reported at railway station, attributed by Russian MoD to short circuit of train contact rail (RBC-Ukraina, 17:46 UTC).
Reported Losses:
UA Claims: UGS/Syrskyi reported 408 Russian artillery systems destroyed in the past week (Mar 24-31) and 4,005 systems destroyed since the start of 2025. Over past day: 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, 1 AD sys, 85 vehicles (Vilkul quoting UGS).
RU Claims: Alleged UA drone cause 70% of RU casualties (Mar 30 report). Claims UA uses young recruits (18-25 yrs) in counterattacks (Basovka). Repeated claims of high UA losses in Rozlyv (>150 over 10 days) and Pogrebki (Kursk).
Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment): Analysis suggests Russia may prepare a new offensive aimed at improving negotiating positions, potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian military reportedly expects a new RU offensive across a 1000km front (Radio Svoboda analysis via Sever.Realii, 17:42 UTC).
International Support & Coordination:
UK-UA Coordination: President Zelenskyy spoke with UK PM Keir Starmer, coordinating diplomatic and security steps, discussing pressure on Russia, and preparing for meetings of military representatives (Zelenskiy / Official, Syniehubov, 18:13 UTC). Zelenskyy emphasized need for strong pressure to halt Russian attacks and force peace talks.
Military Aid: Netherlands (€500M for drones), Sweden (record €1.6B package) previously noted.
US-UA Coordination Dynamics (Rybar/NYT Analysis): Russian sources analyzing NYT reporting emphasize alleged disagreements between US and UA commands since May 2022 (Wiesbaden coordination). Highlight alleged US restrictions (no targeting inside Russia, no HVT locations). Mention failed "Lunar Hail" plan (Crimea targets/bridge). Claim UA commanders often acted unilaterally (e.g., 2023 counteroffensive failures, Kursk offensive violated agreements). Assert US continues support despite disagreements due to vested interests, using reports to pressure Kyiv (Rybar, 17:28 UTC).
Information Environment:
Russia continues propaganda efforts (POW videos, KIA family contact, alleged UA aid corruption (Kotsnews, 17:15 UTC), Z-rapper incident, Yanukovych toilet myth debunking used to claim UA lies (Basurin, 17:37 UTC)). Narrative pushed about Kremlin seeking Zelenskyy's removal (Operatyvnyi ZSU, Tsaplienko citing Moscow Times).
Russian independent media outlets operating in exile report significant financial difficulties (Sever.Realii, 16:53 UTC). Russia moved to expand criteria for 'foreign agent' designation (TASS, 16:53 UTC).
Reports highlight Russian families searching for MIA soldiers, suggesting potential morale issues and casualty underreporting (Sever.Realii, 17:42 UTC).
Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) previously confirmed no leak of personal data or military cargo information during a recent cyberattack (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 16:34 UTC).
II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 16:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 18:15 UTC)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction: Intense fighting. UGS reported 14 engagements total, with 9 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast and 5 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 UTC. Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction (Kotsnews, 17:20 UTC).
RU Claims (MoD/Sources): Offensive actions by "Sever" group hit UA units near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk). Repelled one UA counterattack in Kursk (Mar 30). Strikes conducted across multiple border settlements in Kursk (RU) and Sumy (UA) Oblasts. Claimed repelling UA counterattack near Basovka (Sumy), alleging use of young recruits (18-25 yrs) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:59 UTC). Claimed continued UA ground infiltration attempts near Demidovka (Belgorod). RU engineering units conducting demining near Sudzha using Uran-6 UGV (Colonelcassad, 16:59 UTC). Kotsnews reports intense RU fire engagement, heavy drone use by both sides, RU use of FAB-3000, claimed UA use of F-16 (unverified), HIMARS, and "drone ambushes." Claimed RU drone strike destroyed UA mortar position. Video released allegedly showing significant UA casualties in Pogrebki (Kursk) (Dva Mayora, 18:03 UTC).
RU Needs: Fundraising appeals highlight heavy fighting and equipment needs (drones, thermals, drone detectors) for RU forces on Belgorod/Kursk fronts (RVvoenkor, 17:13 UTC; Dva Mayora, 17:57 UTC).
Kupyansk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (UGS 16:00). OSUV Khortytsia confirmed destruction of RU TMM heavy mechanized bridge near Dvorichna (Mar 30/31).
Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 14 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS 16:00).
Siversk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka (UGS 16:00).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar): 2 Russian attempts stopped near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS 16:00). RU sources reiterate reports of significant UA reinforcement/counter-attack preparations, terming situation "alarming".
Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. 10 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Krymske, Toretsk, Dyliivka (UGS 16:00).
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity (36 Attacks). Main RU focus. Clashes near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, towards Kalynove.
RU Claim (Advance): Advance SE of Kotlyarivka, now 2-4km from Dnipropetrovsk border.
RU Claim (UA Counter-Attack): UA forces attempted breakthrough into Uspenivka, landed troops in south. Fighting ongoing, S/NW parts contested (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:37 UTC).
UA Activity: Drone units active (e.g., Flying Skull).
Rozlyv Status:Strong, multi-sourced, and repeatedly reinforced RU claim of full capture (36th GMRB, 430th MRP) with geolocated flag evidence and claimed control area of >3x3km. Ukrainian assessment requires update.
South Donetsk Direction (Vremivka Salient): Fighting ongoing; RU sources posted footage of alleged UA casualties (Colonelcassad, 17:14 UTC). RU sources (Voin DV, Dva Mayora, Slivochny Kapriz, Rybar, Voenkor Kotenok, Podduhbny, RVvoenkor, Z Komitet, Colonelcassad) report Rozlyv (Bogatyr direction) captured.
Huliaipole Direction (8 Attacks): Clashes near Pryvilne (UGS 16:00).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia - 7 Attacks): Clashes near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, Nesteryanka (UGS 16:00). UA drone units (65th Bde "Ronin") active, targeting RU equipment/arty (Sternenko, 17:41 UTC). Air raid alert active across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (17:56 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. RU claimed aviation strike on Korabel Island (Dva Mayora, 17:13 UTC).
