Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 17:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple sectors. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The highest intensity remains focused on the Pokrovsk Direction (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border regions (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing. Over the previous 24 hours (to 06:00 UTC Mar 31), 171 combat engagements were recorded.
Russian Main Efforts & Objectives: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia), and efforts to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults.
Analysis based on Russian media (via Operatyvnyi ZSU) suggests maximalist Russian goals remain: capitulation, regime change, establishing Belarus-style dependency. Minimum goals include full control over the four illegally annexed oblasts and limiting Ukraine's political/military sovereignty. Current Kremlin strategy reportedly involves discrediting President Zelenskyy to pressure Kyiv into elections and potentially install more compliant leadership, viewing Zelenskyy as unwilling to make territorial concessions.
Key Developments & Claims:
Novopavlivsk Direction / Rozlyv Status (Strong RU Claim vs. UA Assessment):
RU CLAIM (Full Capture - Reinforced): Multiple Russian sources (Voin DV, Dva Mayora, Slivochny Kapriz, Rybar, Voenkor Kotenok, Podduhbny, RVvoenkor, Z Komitet, 16:55-17:36 UTC) strongly claim full capture of Rozlyv by units of the 36th GMRB and 430th MRP (29th Army). Assert control established over a significant area (>3km deep/wide), flags raised on structures (geolocated to 47.97339, 36.99693 and 47.97036, 37.002), and forces consolidating. Claim includes advance of up to 900m within residential areas, clearing ~400 structures, and inflicting >150 UA casualties over 10 days. Visual confirmation of RU flag placement provided via drone footage.
UA ASSESSMENT (Infiltration/Contested): Earlier Ukrainian source (DeepState, 16:33 UTC) indicated ongoing Russian infiltration and accumulation within Rozlyv, utilizing structures for cover. Notes frequent enemy sightings, including reports of free movement on eastern outskirts. Situation reported as under clarification regarding potential full Russian occupation. No subsequent UA update contradicting the reinforced RU claim has been noted.
Pokrovsk Direction / Dnipropetrovsk Border Proximity (RU CLAIM): Russian sources (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:28 UTC) reiterate claim forces of the 80th Tank Regiment advanced SE of Kotlyarivka, clearing forest belts, and are now approximately 2-4km from the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.
Pokrovsk Direction / Uspenivka (RU CLAIM): Russian source (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:37 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces attempted a new breakthrough into Uspenivka, landing troops in the southern part. Claims part of the group was liquidated, others took cover in basements. Asserts southern and northwestern parts are contested ("grey zone"), with ongoing fighting.
Chasiv Yar Preparations (RU CLAIM): Russian sources (Filolog v Zasade, Temniy, 16:05-16:24 UTC) continue to report observing significant Ukrainian reinforcement activity towards Chasiv Yar, including armored vehicle movement, personnel/equipment concentrations, increased UA drone activity, and potential counter-attack preparations. Sources describe the situation as "alarming" for Russian forces.
Kupyansk / Oskil River Crossing (UA CONFIRMED SUCCESS): OSUV Khortytsia confirmed (Mar 30/31) the destruction of a Russian heavy mechanized bridge (TMM) during an attempted enemy crossing of the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Kharkiv Oblast). This action successfully countered Russian efforts to establish or expand bridgeheads west of the river.
Russian Force Posture:
Decree for the Spring 2025 conscription campaign (Apr 1 - Jul 15) targets 160,000 citizens (18-30 yrs). Official statements claim conscripts will not be deployed to SVO zones or occupied territories. Electronic summons and travel restrictions are being implemented. Service "SIM-cards" on Gosuslugi to launch Apr 1 (TASS).
Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov outlined contract soldier training timelines as approximately 1 week to 1 month within reserve regiments before frontline deployment (Confirmed via WarGonzo interview, 16:22 UTC).
Reports from captured Russian soldiers and RU propaganda efforts continue: POWs report morale issues, attrition, poor training/logistics, forced mobilization (MoD Russia video claim). RU propaganda piece (Kursk direction) shows soldier contacting KIA's family found via note (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 16:18 UTC). Fundraising appeal (RVvoenkor, 17:13 UTC) highlights equipment needs (drones, thermals, drone detectors) and losses on the Belgorod front due to heavy fighting. Russian sources (MOBILIZATION | News | Srochniki) highlight social impact via story of soldier's widow suicide.
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Operations:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults. Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 30).
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). UGS reported 9 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast with 5 clashes ongoing (16:00 UTC). RU MoD acknowledged repelling one UA counterattack in Kursk Oblast (Mar 30). RU sources claimed repelling another UA counterattack near Basovka (Sumy), alleging use of young recruits (18-25 yrs) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:59 UTC).
Ukrainian drone units continue active operations across fronts (e.g., Flying Skull strike in Pokrovsk direction, Sternenko, 16:29 UTC; Ronin unit of 65th Bde targeting RU equipment/artillery on Zaporizhzhia direction, Sternenko, 17:41 UTC). RU FPV strike shown bypassed EW (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 17:42 UTC).
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi previously highlighted needs for EW-resistant drones, enhanced brigade capabilities, summer equipment preparations, and improved vehicle FPV protection.
Ongoing recruitment efforts across various specialties advertised (BUTUSOV PLIUS, 16:54 UTC; Operatyvnyi ZSU, 17:25 UTC).
Strike Campaign & Civilian Impact:
High tempo of Russian strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), artillery, FPV/Shahed drones continues. Over past 24 hours (to 06:00 UTC Mar 31), Russia conducted 2 missile, 116 air (223 KABs on UA proper + 20 air/31 KABs in Kursk ops zone), 2620 kamikaze drone, and >5300 shelling attacks (UGS).
Civilian Casualties (Mar 31 Updates):
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:1 KIA (66yo woman recovered from rubble), 2 WIA (46yo woman, 57yo man) in RU strike on frontline community (UA ZOVA, 16:16, 17:07, 17:17 UTC).
Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast):2 WIA (54M, 46F) from RU artillery/drones (Vilkul/ASTRA/Lysak). Damage to homes, infrastructure, admin building, enterprise, gas station.
Kupyansk (Kharkiv Oblast):3 WIA (59M, 74F, 53F) from 7 KABs (ASTRA/Syniehubov, Mar 31).
Significant infrastructure damage reported in affected areas (Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Kupyansk).
Reported Losses:
UA Claims: UGS/Syrskyi reported 408 Russian artillery systems destroyed in the past week (Mar 24-31) and 4,005 systems destroyed since the start of 2025. Over past day: 1230 RU personnel, 4 tanks, 3 BBM, 30 arty sys, 1 AD sys, 85 vehicles (Vilkul quoting UGS).
RU Claims: Alleged UA drone cause 70% of RU casualties (Mar 30 report). Claims UA uses young recruits (18-25 yrs) in counterattacks (Basovka).
Potential Future Operations (UA Assessment): Analysis suggests Russia may prepare a new offensive aimed at improving negotiating positions, potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian military reportedly expects a new RU offensive across a 1000km front (Radio Svoboda report analysis).
International Support & Coordination:
Military Aid: Netherlands (€500M for drones), Sweden (record €1.6B package) previously noted.
Financial Aid: Ukraine received ~$400M IMF tranche previously noted.
Coordination & Diplomacy: G5+ meeting yielded agreements on aid doubling, potential new sanctions consideration, ceasefire call, security guarantees, accountability (previously noted). Moldova expelled 3 Russian diplomats (previously noted). WSJ reported Trump advisor Mike Waltz discussing UA peace talks via Signal (Tsaplienko, RBC-Ukraina, 16:48, 17:13 UTC). Finnish President reportedly proposed an April 20th ceasefire deadline to former US President Trump (previously noted). India denied NYT claims regarding transfer of Western aviation parts to Russia (TASS, 16:47 UTC).
US-UA Coordination Dynamics (Rybar/NYT Analysis): Russian sources analyzing NYT reporting emphasize alleged disagreements between US and UA commands, citing coordination in Wiesbaden since May 2022 (Durnov/Zabrodskyi). Highlight alleged US restrictions (no targeting inside Russia, no HVT locations). Mention failed "Lunar Hail" plan (Crimea targets/bridge). Claim UA commanders often acted unilaterally (e.g., 2023 counteroffensive failures attributed to diffused efforts, Kursk offensive violated agreements). Assert US continues support despite disagreements due to vested interests, using reports to pressure Kyiv (Rybar, 17:28 UTC).
Information Environment:
Russia continues propaganda efforts (POW videos, KIA family contact, Z-rapper incident, Yanukovych toilet myth).
Russian independent media outlets operating in exile report significant financial difficulties and staffing cuts (Sever.Realii, 16:53 UTC). Russia moved to expand criteria for 'foreign agent' designation (TASS, 16:53 UTC).
Reports highlight Russian families searching for MIA soldiers, suggesting potential morale issues and casualty underreporting (Radio Svoboda analysis).
Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) previously confirmed no leak of personal data or military cargo information during a recent cyberattack (Operatyvnyi ZSU, 16:34 UTC).
II. Ground Combat Operations Update (Based on UGS 16:00 UTC Mar 31 & supplementary reports up to 17:45 UTC)
Kursk/Belgorod Border Direction: Intense fighting. UGS reported 14 engagements total, with 9 Russian attacks repelled in Kursk Oblast and 5 clashes ongoing as of 16:00 UTC. Heavy fighting reported near Krasnoyaruzhsky (Demydovka) direction (Kotsnews, 17:20 UTC).
RU Claims (MoD/Sources): Offensive actions by "Sever" group hit UA units near Hornal, Huyevo, Oleshnia (Kursk). Repelled one UA counterattack in Kursk (Mar 30). Strikes conducted across multiple border settlements in Kursk (RU) and Sumy (UA) Oblasts. Claimed repelling UA counterattack near Basovka (Sumy), alleging use of young recruits (18-25 yrs) (Dnevnik Desantnika, 16:59 UTC). Claimed continued UA ground infiltration attempts near Demidovka (Belgorod), intercepted near defensive lines ("Dragon's Teeth"). RU engineering units conducting demining near Sudzha using Uran-6 UGV (Colonelcassad, 16:59 UTC). Kotsnews reports intense RU fire engagement, heavy drone use by both sides, RU use of FAB-3000, claimed UA use of F-16 (unverified), HIMARS, and "drone ambushes" (dormant drones activating) up to 10-15km from front. Claimed RU drone strike destroyed UA mortar position.
RU Needs: Fundraising appeal highlights heavy fighting and equipment needs (drones, thermals, drone detectors) for RU forces on Belgorod front (RVvoenkor, 17:13 UTC).
Kupyansk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Radkivka, Pishchane, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove (UGS 16:00). OSUV Khortytsia confirmed destruction of RU TMM heavy mechanized bridge near Dvorichna (Mar 30/31).
Lyman Direction: High Intensity. 14 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Nadiia, Yampolivka, Kolodiazi, Nove, Novomykhailivka (UGS 16:00).
Siversk Direction: 4 Russian attacks repelled near Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka (UGS 16:00).
Kramatorsk Direction (incl. Chasiv Yar): 2 Russian attempts stopped near Stupochky and towards Bila Hora (UGS 16:00). RU sources reiterate reports of significant UA reinforcement/counter-attack preparations, terming situation "alarming".
Toretsk Direction: High Intensity. 10 Russian attacks repelled/ongoing near Krymske, Toretsk, Dyliivka (UGS 16:00).
Pokrovsk Direction:Highest Intensity (36 Attacks). Main RU focus. Clashes near Panteleimonivka, Oleksandropil, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Novoserhiivka, Udachne, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka, towards Kalynove.
RU Claim (Advance): Advance SE of Kotlyarivka, now 2-4km from Dnipropetrovsk border.
RU Claim (UA Counter-Attack): UA forces attempted breakthrough into Uspenivka, landed troops in south. Fighting ongoing, S/NW parts contested (Dnevnik Desantnika, 17:37 UTC).
UA Activity: Drone units active (e.g., Flying Skull).
Rozlyv Status:Strong, multi-sourced RU claim of full capture (36th GMRB, 430th MRP) with geolocated flag evidence and claimed control area of >3x3km. Earlier UA assessment reported infiltration/contested status, needs updating based on new evidence.
South Donetsk Direction (Vremivka Salient): Fighting ongoing; RU sources posted footage of alleged UA casualties (Colonelcassad, 17:14 UTC). RU sources (Voin DV, Dva Mayora, Slivochny Kapriz, Rybar, Voenkor Kotenok, Podduhbny, RVvoenkor, Z Komitet) report Rozlyv (Bogatyr direction) captured.
Huliaipole Direction (8 Attacks): Clashes near Pryvilne (UGS 16:00).
Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia - 7 Attacks): Clashes near Shcherbaky, Mali Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Kamyanske, Nesteryanka (UGS 16:00). UA drone units (65th Bde "Ronin") active, targeting RU equipment/arty (Sternenko, 17:41 UTC).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson): Positional fighting. RU claimed aviation strike on Korabel Island (Dva Mayora, 17:13 UTC).
