Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 16:45 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing across several sectors. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front, claiming daily improvements to their positions.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, and the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia). Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults.
RU CLAIM (Proximity to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Russian sources (Basurin, Dnevnik Desantnika) claim advances SW of Pokrovsk (near Kotlyarivka) bring forces within 2-4km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Forces of the 80th Tank Regiment are reportedly involved in clearing forest belts SE of Kotlyarivka and advancing towards the village and the administrative border.
Russian Force Generation & Morale:
President Putin signed the decree for the regular Spring 2025 conscription campaign (April 1 - July 15), aiming to draft 160,000 citizens aged 18-30. This is reported by Russian sources as the highest target in a decade. Dispatch to units begins April 10.
Russian MoD and officials reiterate this campaign is unrelated to the Special Military Operation (SVO) and conscripts will not be sent to occupied territories or SVO zones.
Electronic summons via Gosuslugi (and Mos.ru in Moscow) will supplement paper summons; travel restrictions apply upon issuance.
Conscription Issues (Anecdotal): Reports emerged of a 25-year-old Moscow resident with a claimed medical exemption being removed from a domestic flight and forcibly issued a summons, highlighting potential procedural issues and coercive measures (RU source: Mobilization News, Mar 31).
Contract Soldier Training (RU MoD Interview): Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov outlined the training process for contract soldiers: assignment to reserve regiments tied to operational groups/districts, skill restoration or basic training programs, assessment for leadership potential, followed by deployment to the front line within approximately 1 week to 1 month (Colonelcassad/Wargonzo, Mar 31).
Morale & Casualty Handling Issues: Reports from captured Russian soldiers (Pokrovsk direction, 15th OMSB; Chasiv Yar front) suggest significant morale issues, high attrition, inadequate training, logistical deficiencies, poor treatment by commanders, and potential manipulation of casualty figures (allegedly listing KIA as MIA to avoid compensation payments). Recruitment of convicts for assault units persists near Chasiv Yar. (Reinforced by RU propaganda piece showing soldier calling KIA's mother found via note, claiming UA command lists KIA as MIA) (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and containing Russian advances across multiple directions (UGS, Mar 31 16:00 UTC). Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 31), though intense fighting continues.
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day, with 5 clashes ongoing (UGS, 16:00 UTC). UA Air Force conducted strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area). RU sources continue to report attempts by Ukrainian forces to cross the border from Sumy Oblast towards Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka area), claiming engagements near defensive lines ("dragon's teeth") (RVvoenkor, Mar 31).
Training & Personnel: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March. Mortar crews (OUV Tavria) observed training. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" is actively training new recruits. Support events for wounded personnel highlight focus on soldier care. Meetings continue with families regarding POW/MIA status (e.g., 4th NSU Brigade).
Counter-Intelligence/Internal: A Kharkiv resident was sentenced to 15 years for treason. SBU issued notices of suspicion to two Russian generals (Lt. Gen. Mikhail Zusko, Gen. Oleksandr Dragovalovsky) for ordering the Aug 19, 2023 Iskander-M strike on the Chernihiv Drama Theater.
Civilian Resilience & Impact:
Casualties (NEW):1 civilian woman confirmed KIA following a Russian strike on a frontline community in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 31). The strike destroyed/damaged residential buildings and social facilities; search operations were ongoing earlier. 2 civilians WIA (ambulatory treatment) from RU artillery/drone attacks on Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) (Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Mar 31).
Infrastructure Damage: Nikopol district attacks caused fires (house, outbuilding, garage - localized) and damage to 3 residences, 2 garages, 2 vehicles, power lines, an administrative building, a communal enterprise, and a gas station. Zaporizhzhia community strike damaged/destroyed homes and social facilities.
Infrastructure Development: Offline education resumed in Zaporizhzhia underground school. Funding secured for rebuilding Kharkiv Oblast medical complex. Medical infrastructure development ongoing in Kryvyi Rih. A new accessible ground crossing planned for Khreshchatyk Street in Kyiv to improve mobility near the main military hospital (KMVA, Mar 31).
Losses Inflicted (UA CLAIM): UGS reported 408 Russian artillery systems destroyed in the past week (Mar 24-31) and 4,005 systems destroyed since the start of 2025, attributing this to drone strikes, counter-battery fire, and combined arms efforts (UGS/Syrskyi, Mar 31).
Potential Future Operations:
RU CLAIM (UA Reinforcements & Counter-Attack Prep - Chasiv Yar): Russian sources report observing significant Ukrainian reinforcement activity towards Chasiv Yar, including armored vehicle movement, personnel/equipment concentrations, increased UA drone activity, and potential counter-attack preparations. Russian sources on the ground acknowledge feeling increased Ukrainian pressure and describe the situation as "alarming" (Filolog v Zasade / Temniy, Mar 31).
UA Assessment (Potential RU Offensive): Ukrainian analysis suggests Russia may be preparing a new offensive (potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) to improve negotiating positions, but likely not on the scale suggested by some Western media.
International Support & Diplomacy:
Military Aid: Netherlands pledged €500M for drones (Mar 31). Sweden announced record €1.6B aid package (Mar 31).
Financial Aid: Ukraine received ~$400M IMF tranche (Mar 31).
Political Support/Diplomacy: G5+ meeting in Madrid agreed to double aid, consider new sanctions against Russia to compel a ceasefire, called for immediate ceasefire, pledged increased funding, emphasized security guarantees (no limits on UA defense industry/partner presence), committed to war crimes accountability (Special Tribunal via
