Military Situation Update: Ukraine - March 31, 2025, 16:15 UTC
I. Overall Strategic Situation
Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH. As of 16:00 UTC (Mar 31, UGS), 109 combat clashes occurred since the start of the day. The Pokrovsk Direction experiences the highest intensity (36 attacks). Significant combat activity persists on the Lyman (14 attacks), Toretsk (10 attacks), Kursk/Belgorod border (14 attacks repelled/ongoing), Huliaipole (8 attacks), Orikhiv (7 attacks), Novopavlivsk (6 attacks), and Kupyansk (4 attacks) directions. Multiple clashes remain ongoing across several sectors. Russian sources note continuous combat across the entire front, claiming daily improvements to their positions.
RU CLAIM (Pokrovsk Direction Intensity): Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Mar 31) released compilation footage allegedly showing intense combat and destruction of Ukrainian tanks, NATO armored vehicles, artillery, positions, and personnel by Russian Group "Center" forces on March 30th.
Russian Main Efforts: The primary offensive axis continues towards Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure is maintained towards Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Chasiv Yar, the South Donetsk (Vremivka salient) area, and the Orikhiv direction (Zaporizhzhia). Efforts persist to consolidate control and advance within the Kursk border area. Multi-axis advances continue in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces reportedly attempt to exploit adverse weather conditions for ground assaults. Russian sources (Basurin) claim advances are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border southwest of Pokrovsk (2-3km away).
Russian Force Generation & Morale:
President Putin signed the decree for the regular Spring 2025 conscription campaign (April 1 - July 15), aiming to draft 160,000 citizens aged 18-30. This is reported by Russian sources as the highest target in a decade. Dispatch to units begins April 10.
Russian MoD and officials reiterate this campaign is unrelated to the Special Military Operation (SVO) and conscripts will not be sent to occupied territories or SVO zones.
Electronic summons via Gosuslugi (and Mos.ru in Moscow) will supplement paper summons; travel restrictions apply upon issuance.
Conscription Issues (Anecdotal): Reports emerged of a 25-year-old Moscow resident with a claimed medical exemption (flat feet) being removed from a domestic flight and forcibly issued a summons for military service after alleged failures in the medical review process and ignoring his legal appeals (RU source: Mobilization News, Mar 31). This highlights potential procedural issues and coercive measures within the Russian conscription system.
Reports from captured Russian soldiers (Pokrovsk direction, 15th OMSB; Chasiv Yar front) suggest significant morale issues, high attrition, inadequate training, logistical deficiencies, poor treatment by commanders, and potential manipulation of casualty figures (allegedly listing KIA as MIA to avoid compensation payments). Recruitment of convicts for assault units is reported, particularly near Chasiv Yar, suggesting manpower challenges. (Reinforced by new RU soldier testimony near Chasiv Yar).
High-level award (Order "For Merit to the Fatherland" II degree with swords) presented to Rosgvardia figure Alibek Delimkhanov, potentially indicating recognition of command contributions (Kadyrov, Mar 31).
Ukrainian Defensive Posture & Developments:
Forces maintain defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults and containing Russian advances across multiple directions (UGS, Mar 31 16:00 UTC). Stabilization efforts reported partially successful on the Pokrovsk direction (Syrskyi, Mar 31), though intense fighting continues.
Active defense and counter-actions continue within Russian border territory (Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts). Ukrainian forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in Kursk Oblast since the start of the day, with 5 clashes ongoing (UGS, 16:00 UTC). UA Air Force conducted strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area).
RU CLAIM (Sumy Oblast Activity): Russian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, Mar 31) claim ongoing reconnaissance and artillery fire correction against Ukrainian defensive positions in Sumy Oblast, sharing alleged drone footage.
Training & Personnel: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported a reduction in Ukrainian losses during March. Mortar crews (OUV Tavria) observed training. The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" is actively training new recruits. Support events for wounded personnel highlight focus on soldier care. Meetings continue with families regarding POW/MIA status, including a recent meeting focused on the 4th NSU Brigade (v/ch 3018); discussions covered search efforts, confirmation methods, and potential "all-for-all" exchange prospects (Coordination HQ POWs, Mar 31). IT camps organized for children of defenders.
Counter-Intelligence/Internal: A Kharkiv resident was sentenced to 15 years for treason. SBU issued notices of suspicion to two Russian generals (Lt. Gen. Mikhail Zusko, Gen. Oleksandr Dragovalovsky) for ordering the August 19, 2023 Iskander-M missile strike on the Chernihiv Drama Theater (Tsaplienko, Mar 31).
Civilian Resilience & Impact: Offline education resumed in Zaporizhzhia underground school. Funding secured for rebuilding Kharkiv Oblast medical complex. Medical infrastructure development ongoing in Kryvyi Rih (Hospital #3 repairs, new equipment, shelters, rehab beds). A new accessible ground crossing is planned for Khreshchatyk Street in Kyiv to improve mobility, particularly for wounded personnel moving between the main military hospital and other key locations (KMVA, Mar 31).
Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) continues to face RU artillery and kamikaze drone attacks, resulting in 2 civilian WIA (ambulatory treatment), fires (house, outbuilding, garage - localized), and damage to 3 residences, 2 garages, 2 vehicles, power lines, an administrative building, a communal enterprise, and a gas station (Lysak/Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Mar 31).
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Frontline Community): Russian strikes hit civilian objects, destroying/damaging residential buildings and social facilities. A search and rescue operation is ongoing for a woman potentially trapped under rubble (Zaporizhzhia OVA, Mar 31).
Losses Inflicted (UA CLAIM): UGS reported 408 Russian artillery systems destroyed in the past week (Mar 24-31) and 4,005 systems destroyed since the start of 2025, attributing this to drone strikes, counter-battery fire, and combined arms efforts (UGS, Mar 31).
Potential Future Operations:
RU CLAIM (UA Reinforcements & Counter-Attack Prep - Chasiv Yar): Russian sources report observing significant Ukrainian reinforcement activity towards Chasiv Yar. Claims include movement of armored vehicles from Sloviansk, concentration of personnel/equipment near Minkivka, Holubivka, and Fedorivka 2-ya. Reports indicate increased UA drone activity (approx. 11 groups, including new fiber-optic FPV variants) and active counter-drone/EW efforts against RU reconnaissance assets. UA use of armored vehicles with new tactical markings noted near Stupochky/Chasiv Yar. Russian analysis suggests potential Ukrainian counter-attacks originating from Konstantynivka/Verolyubivka or the Orikhovo-Vasylivka/Hryhorivka area to relieve pressure on Chasiv Yar or push along the Sloviansk-Bakhmut road (Filolog v Zasade / Temniy, Mar 31). Ukrainian sources on the ground acknowledge feeling the increased enemy (UA) pressure (Filolog v Zasade, Mar 31).
UA Assessment (Potential RU Offensive): Ukrainian analysis suggests Russia may be preparing a new offensive to improve negotiating positions, potentially targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, but likely not on the scale suggested by some Western media.
International Support & Diplomacy:
Military Aid: Netherlands pledged €500M for drones (Mar 31). Sweden announced record €1.6B aid package (Mar 31).
Financial Aid: Ukraine received ~$400M IMF tranche (Mar 31).
Political Support: European Parliamentarians visit Kyiv (Mar 31).
Sanctions/Pressure (NEW): Foreign Ministers of G5+ (Spain, Italy, Germany, France, UK, Poland + Estonia PM Kallas) met in Madrid, agreeing to double aid to Ukraine and consider new sanctions against Russia to compel a ceasefire. They called for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire, stated readiness for further pressure (incl. sanctions), pledged increased military/political/humanitarian funding, emphasized security guarantees for any peace deal (no limits on UA defense industry/partner presence), committed to war crimes accountability (Special Tribunal via CoE), and asserted frozen Russian assets should remain frozen until compensation is paid (Operatyvnyi ZSU citing Reuters, Mar 31).
Regional Tensions: Moldova declared 3 Russian embassy staff persona non grata after alleging Russia helped a convicted MP escape to Transnistria via the embassy (Mar 31). Russia vows an "adequate harsh response" (TASS, Mar 31).
Moldovan Military Strategy: Moldova presented a draft Military Strategy (2025-2030) identifying Russia and forces in Transnistria as the primary threat. Plans include increasing defense spending to 1% GDP by 2030, adopting Western military standards/structures, enhancing mobilization, increasing troop numbers (to 8.5k), and integrating with EU security structures, relying heavily on EU/Western funding (Rybar, Mar 31).
Economic Indicators: Ukrainian bond prices have fallen significantly, reflecting investor concerns about the conflict's duration and potential outcomes (Reuters).
Diplomacy/Politics: Kremlin states Putin remains open to contact with former US President Trump despite Trump's critical remarks. Slovak PM Fico clarifies earlier comments about EU Commission President von der Leyen as a "joke" (RBK-Ukraina, Mar 31). US-UA meeting held on rare earth minerals. RU-Iran treaty ratification planned for April. Turkey-Central Asia influence concerns noted by Russian analysts. Reports suggest US NSA Advisor Jake Sullivan's influence may be waning after Signal chat leaks related to Ukraine peace discussions (WSJ via TASS, Mar 31).
Intervention Discourse (Analysis): Russian sources analyze perceived UK/French desire for military intervention, noting lack of broad European support (citing Polish/Italian refusals) and suggesting European reluctance without US leadership (WarGonzo, Mar 31).
Information Environment: Challenges reported for independent Russian media outlets (e.g., Mediazona facing financial difficulties), potentially impacting access to non-state narratives within Russia. Russia's Roskomnadzor launched a video show promoting its censorship activities, highlighting blocks on independent media, SVO "fakes," LGBT content, and "extremism" (ASTRA, Mar 31).
Energy Situation: Threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains high. Shelling reported near Enerhodar (RU source, Mar 31).
Territorial Context (The Telegraph Report): A report cited by Ukrainian sources claims Russia has captured approx. 70,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory over 37 months and resettled hundreds of thousands of Russians into these areas to consolidate control (Tsaplienko citing The Telegraph, Mar 31).
II. Territorial Changes & Control
Kursk Oblast:
Russian MoD confirmed capture of Hoholivka (Mar 31). Russian sources claim control of half of Huyevo, fighting ongoing. Claims persist regarding Sudzha town being "liberated" (unverified). Control claimed over northern Uspenivka (Mar 30). Ukrainian forces reportedly hold Oleshnia and Gornal (RU source claim, Mar 31). Russian Investigative Committee shown operating in Sudzha.
Kharkiv Direction:
RU CLAIM: Russian sniper teams (44th Army Corps, "North" Grouping) claimed disruption of Ukrainian personnel movement/resupply (WarGonzo, Mar 31).
Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv):
Russian claims advances near Kondrashivka, capture of Krasne Pershe (Mar 29/30), expansion W of Oskil (contradicted by UA bridge destruction), and expansion of bridgeheads N of Kupyansk (Mar 31).
Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge attempt (TMM bridge) over the Oskil River near Dvorichna (Mar 31).
Lyman Direction:
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Novoie (Mar 30).
Russian source claims front reported approaching Krasnyi Lyman again (Mar 31). Claims advances near Makiivka/Novoliubivka, fighting for Katerynivka (Mar 30).
RU CLAIM (Advances): Russian forces continue pressure within urban areas. Claims include pushing UA forces back near the Dniprovsky Pond from the Novoseverny microdistrict (cutting UA logistics routes), applying pressure towards the pond from Ohnupornyk, and advancing from the south and east within the Shevchenko microdistrict (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Strike): Russian forces claim successful Geran-2 drone strikes on Ukrainian repair bases and warehouses in Andriivka (Donetsk Oblast, near Bakhmut), allegedly destroying a hangar used for HMMWV/truck repairs, a parts warehouse, and causing Ukrainian casualties (Dnevnik Desantnika, Mar 31).
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk):
Russian MoD confirmed liberation of Zaporizhzhia settlement (Mar 31).
Russian sources claim approaching Novooleksandrivka and advances near Kotlyarivka, Preobrazhenka, Andriivka (Mar 31), tactical gains south of Pokrovsk (Mar 30), and fighting near Bohdanivka towards Troitske (Mar 31). RU claims advances bring forces within 2-3km of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border SW of Pokrovsk. RU claims repelled UA mechanized attack near Lysivka with FPV drones. Captured RU soldier (15th OMSB) reports significant issues on this front.
RU CLAIM (Heavy Fighting/Losses Inflicted): Russian sources (RVvoenkor, Mar 31) emphasize ongoing fierce battles and claim significant destruction of Ukrainian equipment (including NATO-supplied) and personnel by RU Group "Center" forces.
Toretsk Direction (Donetsk):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance near Panteleimonivka (Mar 30).
RU CLAIM (NEW - Mar 31): Russian forces captured a fortification south of the Khymkolonka microdistrict (Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk). The situation within the microdistrict remains contested, with RU forces working to clear remaining UA positions in buildings. North of this, near the Toretska mine, RU assault groups reportedly captured a trench near spoil heap #2 and advanced into adjacent woods to the west. UA drone activity remains a significant challenge (Colonelcassad citing Divgen, Mar 31).
Older RU sources claim reaching outskirts of Valentynivka and fighting for Tarasivka. Claim full control of Panteleimonivka village (Mar 31).
Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Direction (Donetsk / Vremivka Salient):
Ukrainian Confirmation: Russian advance in Rozlyv (Mar 30).
RU CLAIM (Significant - Mar 31): RU Group "Vostok" units control over 50% to 2/3 of Rozlyv, advancing and consolidating. Claim breaking UA defenses near Veseloye. Claim establishing fire control over the Bogatyr-Konstantinopol logistics node. Claim pushing UA forces from positions between Konstantynopil and Bogatyr. Allege heavy UA losses and degraded supply/rotation capability due to sustained RU fire pressure. Intense RU artillery, drone, and air strikes reported. Ongoing strikes towards Otradne and Komar targeting UA rear reserves. RU analysts discuss post-Rozlyv offensive options.
RU CLAIM (Stronghold Captured): Russian MoD released video allegedly showing servicemen of the 29th CAA (Vostok Group) seizing a Ukrainian stronghold in this direction (Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (Strikes): Ukrainian Presidential Brigade (3rd Mech Bn) released video showing drone strikes destroying Russian positions and vehicles ("mopeds") in this direction (Mar 31).
Orikhiv / Zaporizhzhia Direction:
RU CLAIM (Offensive Actions - Mar 31): RU forces continue offensive. Claim expanding zone of control N and E from Shcherbaky / Mali Shcherbaky despite UA counterattacks. Claim VDV expanding control N, W, S from Stepove towards Lobkove. Claim RU assault units entered Lobkove from S, advanced N, expanded control E. Claim most of Lobkove under RU control. Acknowledge dynamic situation, difficult fighting. RU artillery and drone strikes (1198 MRR, 38 GMRB) reported destroying UA targets in the Polohy area.
RU CLAIM (Stronghold Captured): Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Mar 31) claim RU "Dnepr" group forces captured a large Ukrainian stronghold near Kam'yanske, alleging UA forces fled and POWs were taken.
RU CLAIM (FPV Drone Use): Russian MoD claims FPV drone pilots of the "Dnepr" Group damaged a Ukrainian stronghold in the Zaporizhzhia region, alleging use of a captured Ukrainian FPV drone intercepted by EW systems (MoD Russia, Mar 31).
Prydniprovsky Direction (Left Bank Kherson):
Positional fighting continues. Ukrainian forces (123rd TD Bde) report ongoing operations and successful strikes against RU positions on the coast/islands.
UA CLAIM (Air Strike): Ukrainian Air Force (PS ZSU / Butusov Plus, Mar 31) claim a MiG-29 crew successfully used two GBU-62 guided bombs to destroy a Russian command post with equipment south of Nechaeve (near occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast).
Sumy Border:
Russian claimed capture of Veselovka (Mar 29, unverified). RU sources claim ongoing "liberation" in Basivka (Sumy) (Mar 31, unverified). Ukrainian forces destroyed a RU Zala recon UAV over Sumy Oblast (Mar 31).
III. Air, Missile, and Drone Activity
Russian Strike Campaign (Past ~24-72h & Ongoing):
Missiles:2 Iskander-M launched towards Sumy (reportedly NOT intercepted, Mar 31). Ballistic missile strike on Shostka (Sumy) (Mar 30 night).
UAVs:57/131 Shaheds destroyed overnight Mar 30/31. Impacts reported in Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr Oblasts. Kharkiv City impact: 6 UAVs attacked, 5 impacts, 3 civilians injured, significant fires/damage to civilian enterprise and residential buildings. Russia employed 2,620 kamikaze drones (UGS, 24h to 06:00 UTC Mar 31).
RU CLAIM (Andriivka Strike): Claimed use of 2 Geran-2 drones to strike UA repair facilities (see Kramatorsk Direction).
Air Bases (RU CLAIM): Strike claimed against Ozerne airfield (Zhytomyr Oblast), reportedly destroying MiG-29 maintenance hangars, damaging C2 point, disrupting comms/nav, and destroying airfield vehicles (Mar 31).
Aviation/KABs:
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attack (Mar 31 afternoon): Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 5 KAB strikes targeting one community. Consequences being assessed. Preliminary: No casualties. (Note: Subsequent report from Zaporizhzhia OVA details another strike on civilian objects in a frontline community, causing destruction and potential casualties under rubble).
Kupyansk Attack (Mar 31 afternoon): Kharkiv OVA reports massive KAB attack on Kupyansk city (7 KABs). 1 private house destroyed, 1 damaged. 3 civilians wounded.
Air Threat Alert: Threat of air attack announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (~14:50 UTC); All-clear given (~15:32 UTC). Earlier alerts active for Southern, Eastern, NE axes.
Past 24h (UGS report): RU conducted 116 air strikes using 223 KABs against Ukrainian territory, plus 20 air strikes (31 KABs) in the Kursk operational zone.
Ukrainian Strikes & Air Activity:
Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery hit 14 Russian concentration areas (personnel/equipment) and 1 command post (UGS, past 24h).
Confirmed Strikes: UA Air Force strikes in Belgorod Oblast (Demidovka, Kondrativka area) reported (DeepState, Mar 31).
UA CLAIM (Air Strike - Kherson): Ukrainian Air Force (PS ZSU / DeepState / Butusov Plus, Mar 31) claim a MiG-29 crew successfully used GBU-62 guided bombs (reportedly two) to destroy a Russian command post with equipment south of Nechaeve (near Oleshky, Kherson Oblast).
UA forces destroyed RU TMM pontoon bridge attempt near Dvorichna (Kupyansk, Mar 31).
UA forces destroyed a RU Zala recon UAV over Sumy Oblast (Mar 31).
NATO/Allied ISR Activity:
UK RAF Airbus KC3 Voyager (tanker) observed operating near Constanta, Romania (Black Sea region), potentially indicating prolonged allied monitoring or support missions requiring air refueling (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 31).
USAF Bombardier Challenger 650 ARTEMIS ISR aircraft observed monitoring Russian borders near Kaliningrad Oblast (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 31).
US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft also observed operating near Kaliningrad Oblast (Voenkor Kotenok, Mar 31).
